Warning: main(/home/b4v/public_html/wp-content/themes/blixed/above.php) [function.main]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/b4v/public_html/wp-content/themes/blixed/single.php on line 5
Warning: main() [function.include]: Failed opening '/home/b4v/public_html/wp-content/themes/blixed/above.php' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/lib/php:/usr/local/lib/php') in /home/b4v/public_html/wp-content/themes/blixed/single.php on line 5
Obama Leading in Iowa?
November 21st, 2007 at 04:13am Mark Noonan
Within the margin of error, but this still has to be worrisome for Hillary, Inc:
The top three Democratic presidential contenders remain locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key issues, including the questions of experience and which candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.
Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) draws support from 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared with 26 percent for Clinton and 22 percent for former senator John Edwards (N.C.). New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson received 11 percent. The results are only marginally different from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the tone for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama — and harbingers of concern for Clinton.
I’d like to congratulate my wife - it was she, after all, who first tipped me off to Obama’s real strength in Iowa; all that appearing on daytime TV (Oprah, Ellen, etc). Never, ever underestimate the power of likability in politics…Obama has got out there on the hustings in soft venues and presented himself as a nice guy, agent of change. It seems that women voters like a nice guy, and like to change things.
Will Obama win the Iowa caucuses? I don’t know - but he is showing that Hillary is not unstoppable. What really makes this interesting is the effect a Hillary slump might have on the un-announced potential Democratic candidates - Gore and Kerry. Like this: If Obama seems to be surging in Iowa, then the political calculus for Gore or Kerry goes, “I can announce late (say, late December), eschew Iowa on the reasonable grounds of lack of time to campaign, allow Obama to win there, and then help knock Hillary out in New Hampshire and South Carolina, thus leading the way to my nomination.”
Lord only knows what will really happen, but I’m betting on 2008 being the longest, nastiest and most interesting political campaign since 1860.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats
4 Comments
1. OhioOrrin | November 21st, 2007 at 7:11 am
it’s most amusing that the chattering class is obsessed w discussion groups in Iowa gathered round the ol john deere.
couldn’t care less…
2. phnx | November 21st, 2007 at 5:51 pm
I hope Obama wins in Iowa, and NH. That will make it a race, and Hillary will have to spend some of her war chest on a real campaign. If she wins Iowa, its all over but the shouting for Obama and Edwards.
3. Rich | November 21st, 2007 at 6:39 pm
I’m waiting for everyone to condmen Obama’s past drug use like the did with Gw’s. I seem to remember people calling Bush a cokehead etc… Seems to be some moral relativism going on.
4. 1H8L1B5 | November 22nd, 2007 at 8:33 am
It would please me greatly to see Earbama defeat Her Thighness, even if it results in and Earbama presidency. Hitlary thinks she’s entitled to the throne, and is getting desperate now that the polls are trending towards Earbama.
I’m waiting for everyone to condmen Obama’s past drug use like the did with Gw’s.
Rich, such behaviour by Donkaroaches is, to their base, a resume enhancer…