A Phenomenal Drop in Iraq Violence
November 22nd, 2007 at 06:39pm Mark Noonan
So says the Financial Times:
Violence in Iraq has fallen at a rate that has surprised military commanders and even one of the architects of the “surge” that boosted US troop numbers in the country this year, according to figures gathered by the US.
The figures show the numbers of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have more than halved since 30,000 extra troops in June.
The military attributes the decline to the surge, the spread of local ceasefire deals across Iraq, a ceasefire by radical Shia militias and an improvement in the Iraqi security forces.
Jack Keane, the former army general who helped persuade George W. Bush, US president, to increase troop numbers in Iraq, said the decrease in violence was “phenomenal” and had occurred far faster than he had expected.
“When you understand you are dealing with the complexity of a counter-insurgency operation which can take years to resolve, to have this dramatic a success in a short period of time, it’s unprecedented,” he said.
Thank our magnificent men and women in the United States armed forces. Thank our Coalition allies who have stood with us. Thank our Iraqi allies who are pouring out their own blood for liberty. Thank President Bush who, when all were counseling retreat, had the courage to keep fighting for victory.
Pity the Democrats who said last year that the war was lost…
Remember all of this, as you go to vote in 2008.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, President Bush, War on Terror
26 Comments
1. neocon | November 22nd, 2007 at 6:53 pm
And thank God for the courage and determination our men and women in uniform needed to persevere against a truly heartless enemy.
2. Canuckguy | November 22nd, 2007 at 7:03 pm
Well if what was stated above holds true, then I will have to eat my words from an earlier post a while back predicting that the surge will fail due to the fact 30,000 extra troops would not be enough. If wrong, I don’t mind in a case like this.
Maybe the terrorists are running out of people willing to blow themselves up. I never thought that could happen.
3. Mark Noonan | November 22nd, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Canuck,
It is to be hoped - but I never thought they had that many people actually willing to blow themselves up. In my view, I’ll bet all sorts of pressure was brought to bear on people to force them to agree to be human bombs. Like this:
Al-Qaeda controls a village in Anbar - perhaps the people even invited them in to “defend” them against the infidel Americans. However that may be, al-Qaeda acts like al-Qaeda…horribly repressively towards all and sundry. So, you’re the father of five boys in the village and the local AQ headman comes along and says, “force one of your sons to drive this car bomb into Baghdad, or we’ll kill all of them”. What do you do? Better to lose one than lose all.
If I’m right about this, then that is where AQ and other terrorist groups got their “volunteers”…and it also explains why the local people have so decisively turned against the terrorists in recent months…just as soon as they were sure the US and Iraqi security forces would actually protect them from terrorist retaliation.
Time will tell if this is a good understanding of the situation - but however it was, it does seem that we’ve got a handle on the violence.
4. Iraq Awakens &hellip | November 22nd, 2007 at 7:37 pm
[...] see that one in the MSM. What we are seeing, though, is sure to peg the left wing seethometer (via Blogs For Victory) Violence in Iraq has fallen at a rate that has surprised military commanders and even one of the [...]
5. Kahn | November 22nd, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Hopefully - hopefully we’re seeing the tipping point. Iraq will surely have its share of future problems. But maybe they’re as sick of this violence as we are. It’s been shown that they are helping fight Al-Queda now. Lets hope it continues.
contrary to many liberals beliefs, we don’t really want to be there either. We just see it as necessary.
Good news tonight - my wife just got off the phone with her sister who is serving in Afghanistan. It was great to hear from her. This is the gal whose sone just got back from Iraq and whose daughter was in Kuwait a while back. Please join me in wishing her well.
6. james allegro | November 22nd, 2007 at 9:05 pm
God bless our brave soldiers, especially on this Thanksgiving day, and God bless President George W. Bush, who never forgot 9/11 and that we are at war with islamic fascism, when so many have forgotten.
7. lenny | November 23rd, 2007 at 12:07 am
markiban
good news if it’s true
let’s just hope they all didn’t just pick up and move to afghanland
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/22/wtaliban122.xml
8. Casper | November 23rd, 2007 at 8:30 am
The fact that violence is down is great news. However, unless there is some progress on the political front it may not last.
Kahn,
Glad you heard from your sister-in-law. Pass on my thanks to her and her family for their service to our country. It would be very nice if this is the last Christmas our troops have to spend over there.
9. Retired Spook | November 23rd, 2007 at 9:20 am
Casper, it’s starting to appear that progress on the political front may be occuring backwards from the conventional wisdom — from the grass roots up instead of from the top down. Personally, I don’t care how it happens, as long as it happens.
10. Casper | November 23rd, 2007 at 9:52 am
Retired Spook,
I agree. I don’t care how it happens, as long as it happens either. My biggest concern about the current trend is that Iraq might be turning into a country ruled by warlords rather than having any kind of strong central government.
11. Retired Spook | November 23rd, 2007 at 10:27 am
Iraq might be turning into a country ruled by warlords rather than having any kind of strong central government.
Yeah, things are looking up, BUT WE STILL MIGHT FAIL!!!!! Casper, that doesn’t surprise me coming from a glass-half-empty person such as yourself. Doesn’t it get a little old always looking for the negative?
I’m sorry, people like you just drive me nuts.
12. Mark Noonan | November 23rd, 2007 at 11:56 am
lenny,
That could happen - dollars to donuts a lot of the terrorists are fleeing to Iran, and Iran could easily switch them over to Afghanistan…but, we’ll beat them where ever they are.
13. lenny | November 23rd, 2007 at 11:56 am
markastuffing
i’m in to winning in iraq, now more than ever
but for me personally?
it’s getting tougher to believe the govt’s facts and figures
and that covers everything from inflation to iraq
here’s an example from today’s usatoday
At least 20,000 U.S. troops who were not classified as wounded during combat in Iraq and Afghanistan have been found with signs of brain injuries, according to military and veterans records compiled by USA TODAY.
The data, provided by the Army, Navy and Department of Veterans Affairs, show that about five times as many troops sustained brain trauma as the 4,471 officially listed by the Pentagon through Sept. 30. These cases also are not reflected in the Pentagon’s official tally of wounded, which stands at 30,327
i’m confused mark….
who should i believe
can you help my non injured brain out?
14. Mark Noonan | November 23rd, 2007 at 12:06 pm
Lenny,
Believe the US military - after the “Five O’Clock Follies” of the Vietnam era, the US military made a committment to having truth be the last casualty of war. This doesn’t mean the military can’t make a mistake (outside the front lines, it is just another large, bureaucratic organization, right?), but it does mean that they won’t deliberately mislead the American people.
On the other hand, we have plenty of evidence that the MSM will mislead America - especially as good news comes pouring in from Iraq, the MSM will be determined to find the cloud in the silver lining.
As for this story - I can’t comment on it as I haven’t looked into it…but I’ll bet that upon investigation it will either be shown that the US military made an honest mistake, or that the MSM report is counting even the slightest quasi-evidence of brain trauma as proof that a soldier suffered brain trauma in war related service (remember, you can get brain trauma from bumping your head on the way out of your car).
15. Ricorun | November 23rd, 2007 at 1:52 pm
Spook: Yeah, things are looking up, BUT WE STILL MIGHT FAIL!!!!! Casper, that doesn’t surprise me coming from a glass-half-empty person such as yourself. Doesn’t it get a little old always looking for the negative?
Don’t be so hard on the guy. All else equal, optimism is certainly better than pessimism. But not if it’s unfounded. That’s the hard question. As the FT article Mark cited states that the military attributes the decline in violence to four separate factors: “The military attributes the decline to the surge, the spread of local ceasefire deals across Iraq, a ceasefire by radical Shia militias and an improvement in the Iraqi security forces.
I’m inclined to believe that. So the question becomes, how many of them are self-sustaining? Obviously the surge is not. So to the extent that the other factors are dependent upon the surge, it’s appropriate to worry. To the extent that they’re not, then it’s reason for great optimism. So the question then is, how can we tell? I suspect that’s going to prove to be a very tough question — and it’s not likely to have a single, simple answer everywhere in Iraq.
16. Ricorun | November 23rd, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Darn, and I was doing so well with that bold problem.
17. plainjane | November 23rd, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Best way to support our troops is to bring them home. Their victory was secured in 2003.
Notice how the neocons don’t mention any political settlement.
18. Mark Noonan | November 23rd, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Planejane,
If you’re expecting some sort of grand conference where all the Iraqi interest groups gather together and hammer out a uniform, binding political agreement, then you’re not going to get that. The political solution has been what we’re seeing - average Iraqis joining the fight against the terrorists. From this will come a genuine civil society in Iraq.
19. Casper | November 23rd, 2007 at 9:37 pm
“Yeah, things are looking up, BUT WE STILL MIGHT FAIL!!!!! Casper, that doesn’t surprise me coming from a glass-half-empty person such as yourself. Doesn’t it get a little old always looking for the negative?”
Retired Spook,
I wasn’t ready to declare defeat two years ago and I’m not ready to declare victory now. Actually, I consider myself a realistic optimist. I hope for the best, but I’m not shocked it things don’t work out.
20. Ricorun | November 23rd, 2007 at 9:53 pm
Mark: If you’re expecting some sort of grand conference where all the Iraqi interest groups gather together and hammer out a uniform, binding political agreement, then you’re not going to get that.
Forgive me if I’m wrong, but isn’t what you’re suggesting is outside the realm of possibility the very definition of a national government? If that’s so impossible, what exactly do you portend for the future?
21. Casper | November 23rd, 2007 at 10:10 pm
So Mark, what kind of government do you expect Iraq to end up with?
22. Ricorun | November 23rd, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Casper: So Mark, what kind of government do you expect Iraq to end up with?
Good question. Lol! Have I told you yet that I like the way you think? If I haven’t I should have.
23. Casper | November 23rd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Rico,
Thanks for the compliment.
Several years ago a comic strip called “For Better or For Worst” had a strip in which a student asked her teacher how she knew how she could tell which kids were smart. The teacher answered “By the questions they ask”.
I learned from that strip. I have found since then that the smartest students that I work with aren’t the ones with the best answers, but the ones with the best questions.
I hope to live up to the standards I set for my kids.
24. What? | November 27th, 2007 at 12:59 am
Casper and Rico,
I have to say I am kind of sad you both beat me to Mark’s comment. When I read:
“If you’re expecting some sort of grand conference where all the Iraqi interest groups gather together and hammer out a uniform, binding political agreement, then you’re not going to get that.”
I busted out laughing. I like how Mark has not responded. I think he knows he lost this one.
25. free&hellip | November 29th, 2007 at 6:58 am
hello
wonderful
26. obibwqci&hellip | January 10th, 2008 at 2:10 am
obibwqci
obibwqci