What Media Bias? Part 108
November 23rd, 2007 at 04:32pm Mark Noonan
When I went to Yahoo’s main page, under “In the News” is the headline, “Shopping Season Expected to be Weakest in Years”. Now, given that I saw people lining up at Best Buy at 8pm yesterday for a 5am opening today, I thought the headline a bit off-center. There are two reasons for this:
1. Stores have been packed when I’ve been in them over the past few weeks.
2. How in heck would anyone really know what people will do on a subjective thing like Christmas shopping?
So, I clicked on the link, and this is what I got:
Stores usher in holiday shopping season
By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO, AP Business Writer
19 minutes agoNEW YORK - The nation’s shoppers — who have been hibernating in recent months because of worries about rising gas prices and falling home values — jammed malls and stores for pre-dawn discounts on everything from TVs to toys on the official start of Christmas shopping.
The aggressive tactics — bigger discounts and expanded hours like midnight openings_ apparently worked. Based on early reports, Macy’s Inc., Toys “R” Us, K-B Toys Inc. and others that were noisy with discounts reported bigger crowds for the early morning bargains than a year ago. And electronic gadgets, particularly the hard-to-find Nintendo Wii, topped shoppers’ wish lists, though frustrations were high among shoppers who couldn’t get their hands on the limited bargains.
With the economy relying heavily on the consumer, however, it’s crucial that the Black Friday euphoria lasts throughout the season, expected to be the weakest in five years.
Expected by whom? Well, as it turns out, over the past few days I’ve actually been subjected to some MSM reporting - waiting for the Macy’s parade to come on and while waiting for the football games to start. I heard story after story about how bad the shopping season was going to be and how everything was going to heck in a handbasket…it seemed to me that the MSMers were certainly expecting the season to be the weakest in years. But what did they base this expectation on? Officially, on rising oil prices and the slack housing market - as if we hadn’t had rising oil prices for the past 5 years and as if our economy was based on selling our house for a higher price every other year.
But then fact comes in - people are jamming the stores. What to do? Well, can’t just wait for the facts to come in and then report them - have to pre-make some facts, and then when real facts come in, we still have to fit them into a pre-selected narrative. And thus you get the above quoted story - which has only the fact of surging shoppers, but is laced with the supposition - reported as fact - that it will be a bad year in spite of all that actual shopping going on.
This is what we can expect from now until November next year - the MSM latching on to anything it can spin in a negative manner (from which, of course, only a Democrat can save us), and keeping at it until it is proven wrong, but then just going on to the next supposition of impending doom.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Economy
18 Comments
1. Almiranta | November 23rd, 2007 at 7:24 pm
And they wonder why we don’t want them in charge of the economy??!!??
They absolutely swooned over a hollow dot-com bubble, touting the artifical “gains” of the stock market based on the investment equivalent of the emperor’s new clothes, seeing no problem whatsoever in people investing millions in companies which did not even exist, yet with an R in the White House they get the vapors over—nothing.
People who are economically literate understand that, for example, the housing boom has to level off—once everyone has bought a new house, the market HAS to soften. Same thing with refrigerators, washer and driers, and so on. Even when we were selling new cars at a record rate, which we CAN market as an every-other-year purchase, at least to some—there was doom and gloom about the glut of slightly used cars and the resulting dip in their values.
Duh.
The economy HAS to slow, at least to some degree, every now and then. It does not have to recede, but it has to have variations in the degree of growth. That is just common sense.
What is so amusing, though distressing, about the totally committed (and to some of us, committable…) radical Left and their tools, the Agenda Media, is their determination to portray, no matter how falsely, good news as bad and predictable shifts in growth rates and sectors as DISASTER!!!!!!!!!
And then they whine about being ignored, about getting no respect, about the GALL of those morons (the American Public) in searching out unbiased real news to replace the propagandizing of the former Mainstream Media.
2. james allegro | November 23rd, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Mark, Macy’s in Wayne, NJ was jam packed today.
3. Ricorun | November 23rd, 2007 at 8:28 pm
It seemed to me like Black Friday was pretty awesome. We got some great buys — especially on electronics.
4. christmas shopping&hellip | November 23rd, 2007 at 8:49 pm
[…] What Media Bias? Part 108 […]
5. Casper | November 23rd, 2007 at 9:18 pm
If you truly want a great deal this weekend try this.
Three hand held games at $7 apiece from Kohls.
Five previewed DVDs from Hollywood Video for $20.
Twenty dollars to ship everything to our soldiers in Iraq.
Letting our troops know we care about them.
PRICELESS
6. Retired Spook | November 23rd, 2007 at 11:50 pm
ALL RIGHT NOW, CASPER!! That’s what I’m talkin’ about. Fill up that glass!!!!
See, it’s not really so hard.
7. Retired Spook | November 23rd, 2007 at 11:53 pm
BTW, Casper, my wife and I did basically the same thing with gifts (I think also from Kohls) for needy kids. Makes you feel good, doesn’t it?
8. lenny | November 24th, 2007 at 12:11 am
markasumption:
consumption is a good thing
but considering the cpi, the expectation index, the confidence report, etc…..this last qtr…
that’s where the pessimism comes in.
geez…i even read an article recently in the wsj
that said the bottom of the high end market is finally dropping out.
even some of the luxury chains are reporting lower earnings.
i’m worried consumers are just going to add to their already too heavy credit card debt
because after the mortgage credit crunch
the consumer credit bubble is coming next
so i can appreciate your optimism
and can appreciate your mistrust of the media
both sides…ala…..msnbc and fox news
but let’s keep our fingers crossed that people go out and spend alot
because why would we want them to save or invest or do anything like that?
can you smell my consumption sarcasm???
sorry broham…..
9. Mark Noonan | November 24th, 2007 at 1:30 am
Lenny,
Certainly the credit crunch is going to have its effect - but mostly on sub-prime borrowers. This might shave a percentage point off growth, but if we go from 4% to 3% growth, its still growth.
There are no actual indicators of a contracting economy - or even the danger that we’ll experience a contracting economy over the next 12 months (beyond that you’re no longer predicting, your guessing).
10. Kahn | November 24th, 2007 at 1:54 am
lenny, does the reporting reflect pessimism, or does it cause pessimism?
Don’t you think that maybe the endless drumbeat of negative news has a cumulative effect?
I notice their not talking about Iraq much these days.
The actual election is a year away. Keep it up.
By the way, these ReCAPTCHA words are driving me crazy.
11. Orion | November 24th, 2007 at 3:24 am
They’re also grossly underestimating the dollar amount being spent online to avoid sales taxes.
12. heckrulz | November 24th, 2007 at 8:53 am
On CNN Headline news yesterday morning the first shot of shoppers busting through the doors of a large chain store had a guy with “Impeach Bush” scribbled across his tee shirt…so moonbats must still enjoy capitalism!!
13. lenny | November 24th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
markfucious…….
just an fyi…so far this year in the denver mkt
for every 2 homes sold
one has gone into foreclosure
(and this isn’t l.a. or miami)
so you’re right
credit crunch is subprime borrowers
but laying in wait is personal credit crunch
please don’t discount it
and i agree we’ll still have growth…
but it’s the inflation that will take it all away
we’ll all feel it…with gas, food, etc….
and yes…….some of my rants are guesses
but they are probably just as accurate as top wall street analysts and weathermen????
and kahn…i agree some pessimism is chicken/egg
however when govt reports cpi, etc…those aren’t driven by consumer sentiment
btw…what is ‘recaptcha’ phrases?
14. lenny | November 24th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
markafreakazoid
last time i’ll harp on this
but the following article is a must read if you’re interested in consumption moving forward
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119456835990487306.html
the low to mid mkt consumer is already tapped out
this wannabe luxury mkt consumer is tapping out as we speak
after that there’s not much left other than super high end mkt and super low mkt
maybe it’s by design?
i dunno
ok…i’ll shut up now
15. Canuckguy | November 24th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Head for the hills. The sky is falling. Huge US debt, falling dollar
SQUAAAAWK!!
What I am saying, I fear the worse is yet to come. I am a regular reader of the business pages and I have never seen such a load of dark warnings from so many different financial writers before. This time I think the chickens are coming home to roost(that’s a bad thing, I guess, when chickens come home to roost or am I getting my metaphors confused?)
16. What? | November 25th, 2007 at 2:09 am
What is being reported are projections by Wall Street, not made up stories to make the Bush administration look bad.
We have epxerienced higher oil prices over the past five years but oil has never been as high as it is now. This combined with the credit crunch is rightfully unnerving investors and retailers. Add on top of that polls which indicate people plan to spend less than they did last year on Chirstmas gifts and you have a story that has to be told considering 70% of our economy relies on retails sales and most retailers don’t turn a profit until December. This is story for people who have money invested in the stock market (50% of us) and want to know what to do. If the media waited til the actual sales were in, the story would be worthless. The damage is done.
17. Almiranta | November 25th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
lenny, lenny, get a grip!!!!!
The reason the Denver market is so bad is because Colorado has had no regulations on mortgage banking. Or on appraisers, for that matter.
When an appraiser can submit an appaisal that is 10 or even 20 per cent higher than the actual reasonable market value of a home, and then a lender can lend 100% of that amount, to people with low incomes and little or nothing down, on ARMS which will rise dramatically within a year or two or three, OF COURSE it is a recipe for disaster.
I know someone who did just that. She is one of those people who will gravitate toward the worst possible financial decision possible, whether it is car leasing or, recently, buying a house in Denver. She didn’t talk to anyone who knows the Denver market, she was excited to get 100% financing on a house value she never thought she would be able to afford (a big red light to most of us) and when her interest rates rose she found herself buying a house that was worth a lot less than her mortgage—which she could no longer afford.
But you need to look at the actual cost of the mortgage bust, in terms relative to the domestic national product and income. It is a lot of money—-I could buy a very nice country for that much—but it is still not huge related to our overall economy. And it will settle itself out.
I just hope it will result in STATE regulations and not more federal interference in state matters.
The stock market is stong, in areas which matter—not speculative investment in non-existent companies, as in the 90’s, but in areas which reflect consumer confidence and manufacturing. (YES, you can find figures for a day or maybe a week or so which are not so strong in those areas, but you have to look at long-range figures.)
Everything is not perfect. But everything is not falling apart, either. And there is a lot to be gained, politically, by convincing Americans that the economy under Bush is going to hell in a handbasket and we are all going to be speaking Chinese and the sky is falling.
I am also wondering why there is so little media attention being paid to advances in alternative fuels and energy sources, and demanding that we be allowed to mine more silica, for example, to bring down the cost of solar collectors.
The selectiveness of the reporting makes me very suspicious….
18. Ricorun | November 25th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Almiranta: I am also wondering why there is so little media attention being paid to advances in alternative fuels and energy sources, and demanding that we be allowed to mine more silica, for example, to bring down the cost of solar collectors.
Re: the issue of polysilicon availability and other issued surrounding solar power, if you haven’t already read this you might want to. It goes into a lot of detail about a lot of interesting things. With specific reference to polysilicon (the type of silica you are talking about), the author indicates that the rise in price is primarily due to increased demand from the microchip industry. Interestingly, he also makes the point that until recently, the photovoltaic (PV) industry heavily relied on waste silicon wafers from the microchip industry, which they could get on the cheap, making their products cost-effective. However, with the rise in popularity of PV panels, they have to compete with the microchip industry directly, which has caused the cost of polysilicon to skyrocket. The good news is that several companies are in the process of increasing their production of polysilicon, which will bring the cost down. The bad news is that producing polysilicon is still expensive. I haven’t read the article thoroughly yet, but I can’t find anywhere in it where the author indicates what the base cost of manufacturing polysilicon is, but from his description it sounds like even when the manufacturing shortage is relieved it isn’t going to get any cheaper. And thus, while it may help to reduce the cost of PV panels from what they are now, unless significant breakthroughs occur in the manufacturing process they still aren’t going to be able to compete effectively with other energy sources — not without continued government subsidies anyway.
Another problem with PV panels (which isn’t directly discussed in the article) is that they aren’t exactly environmentally friendly to produce or dispose of.
The author does spend some time discussing alternatives though. One is thin film PVs. He doesn’t have too many positive things to say about them except to mention two relevant things: (1) they use a small fraction of the silicon that typical PV cells do, sometimes none at all, and; (2) they are the focus of much active reseach. So far though, they are about half as efficient as typical PV panels, and many of them have a shorter operational life.
Another is “solar thermal” technology. Basically, it uses the same concept as torching ants under a magnifying glass, except that instead of magnifying glasses, mirrors are used to focus light energy on an overhead boiler which heats water (or some other liquid) into steam to drive a turbine. The up-side is that in high sunlight areas (with lots of acreage available — say, the Arizona desert), it can be done pretty cheap. The downside is that it requires a lot of acreage and a lot of sunlight. And of course, when it gets dark the production drops to essentially zero, so you need some way of storing the energy produced during sunlight hours. Now, with the current advances in high efficiency, high velocity flywheel batteries (which the author doesn’t discuss), that appears to be viable in the near term.
Anyway, I found it to be an interesting article. Perhaps you will too.