Bush Economic Boom Continues
December 9th, 2007 at 12:26am Mark Noonan
As noted by Larry Kudlow over at NRO’s The Corner:
There is no recession. Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S economy continues moving ahead—quarter after quarter, year after year—defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.
The pessimistas are a persistent bunch. In 2006, they were certain a recession was just around the corner. They were wrong. Instead, the economy posted two consecutive quarters of near or above four-percent growth.
Earlier today, a doom and gloom economic forecast from Macro Economic Advisors was released predicting zero percent growth in the fourth quarter. This report is off by at least two percentage points. These guys are going to wind up with egg on their faces.
Here are the facts: Americans are working. The 4.7 percent unemployment number remains at an historical low. On a three-month rolling basis, the U.S. economy has added over 100,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the household job count shows that an average of 303,000 jobs have been added in the last three months. This is noteworthy because it suggests that the job market is turning around.
Hours worked are growing more than 1-percent annually, while workers’ wages are running 3.8 percent, a full percentage point ahead of inflation. As for this week’s productivity report, it was nothing short of spectacular: the 6.3 percent productivity gain was the best in four years. A rise in productivity is good for growth. It’s good for profits. And it’s good for low inflation.
Speaking of inflation, business inflation is down from 3.5 percent just over a year ago to 1.5 percent today. Meanwhile, oil prices have retreated to $88. And, to top it all off, last night we received a tremendous new number showing household net wealth has headed even higher. It stands at a record $59 trillion dollars. That’s more than seven percent above a year ago.
Another factoid worth considering is that mortgage refinancings are soaring at lower rates. Since June, they are up nearly 70 percent, while mortgage rates on 15 and 30-year loans are down nearly a 100 basis points. That is a very positive, very welcome development that ought to cushion the plunge in home sales, and maybe even prices.
We’ll continue to have doom and gloom economic reporting until a Democrat takes over the White House - at that point, the economic reporters will be all about how the brilliant leadership of the Democrats have led to the best economic times in American history. Its just in the nature of things - given the fundamental dishonesty in reporting these days. To a large extent, we’re reduced to reading between the lines in economic reports and we are darn lucky to have a ‘net and a blogosphere which allows the unclouded truth to come out.
Entry Filed under: Economy, President Bush
22 Comments
1. Joe | December 9th, 2007 at 7:38 am
of course everything is beautiful. It is those pesky economists that are all about doom and gloom. In fact, it is all a Democratic conspiracy saying that things are bad. Don’t listen to them. The Bush supports are the ONLY people that really know how well the economy really is. Everyone else is a kook.
I don’t know about you, but I have a good job and good pay. Still… $3+ gas is killing me. Still, in my homestate, there are record number of foreclosures. Still… the savings rate is negative for America as a whole. Still… credit cards are all maxed out. Still…. etc etc etc.
Who is it good for? Those that can afford $3 gas without it causing much of a problem. Those that have their stocks making money in the stock market.
Bottom line is that most of America is struggling. Just because the top 10% of America isn’t struggling doesn’t make this all beautiful.
2. Bull | December 9th, 2007 at 8:47 am
Bottom line is that most of America is struggling. Just because the top 10% of America isn’t struggling doesn’t make this all beautiful.
just an out and out lie! i’m no where near the top 10% and i’m not struggling. most people i know are where i am or below and are not struggling. i pay over $3 a gallon in gas and it’s not killing me.
i guess all of that positive economics news in the report can be ignored. but you’re paying over $3 in gas so everyone is hurting. please!
51 straight months of growth isn’t good news? 4.7% unemployment rate is not good news? wages up is not good news? man you guys need a dem in the white house so badly, just to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. problem is when you elect them you’ll be paying $4 a gallon, you’ll be taxed out the ying yang, and nobody will be working. but the economy will be in even better shape because the top 10% of wage earners will get a tax increase. how will that help the rest of us? man you guys are stupid!
3. Hates Cows--Male | December 9th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Hey Joe, go to the U.K. and try to get $3.00 gas, you idiot. For the longest time, the Donkaroaches have been saying “gas prices need to be higher.” Now that they are higher, they need to be lower?
Gee, Joe, there’s a record number of foreclosures in everyone’s home state.
Does your “good job and good pay” include a retirement plan? A 401k perhaps? Where do you think the retirement plan makes its money? From the stock market, you idiot!
Joe, just because you drink the kool-aid and read Paul Krugman, doesn’t make your silly rhetoric true. 90% of Americans are struggling? Yeah, right! Maybe they ought to sacrifice a bit more, like sensible Americans used to. You know, get rid of some things, maybe? Like their expensive cell plans, their digital cable, high-speed internet. Maybe drive something they can afford? Maybe learn a bit about sub-prime loans and ARMs?
I have an idea, Joey, and I’m sure this is what you want: Let’s let the government bail all these idiots out. Becuase you and I know that it’s all Bush’s fault these people are too stupid to manage their own finances, right?
Mark, every time I listen to talk radio, I get those biased, top-of-the-hour news reports from the DBDM. They always downplay good economic news with statements such as “despite expectations by the experts, xx number of jobs were created last month,” or “There were some good economic numbers reported, and the Dow responded by going up…”
Let’s all cry for poor Joey; 90% of his friends are in a soup line somewhere…
4. Hates Cows--Male | December 9th, 2007 at 9:23 am
Bull, I’m with ya! While I’ve never been a economic whiz, and have had problems of my own, I’m surely not struggling. The difference between us, Bull, and whiners like Joey, is that we are accountable. Joey and his pals want to blame someone else for their misgivings, and the government is an easy mark.
In another thread earlier, the kooks played off all the good economic news with comments like “So what if 80,000 jobs were created last month; this time last year, 200,000 were created,” and “4.7% unemployment is depressing.” So, full employment is depressing. It’s a good thing this person doesn’t remember the Cahtuh years, when unemployment, inflation, and interest rates were all in double digits.
Good news for the country is bad news for the Donkaroaches. The party of retreat and defeat is vested in the misery of its own people…
5. OhioOrrin | December 9th, 2007 at 11:16 am
I do NOT agree w the internationalists from BOTH parties who r moving our economy towards integration in the north american union using the amero as currency.
these politicians will surrender our national sovereignty, our constitution, & our precious freedoms paid 4 by millions of our war dead…NOT mexican, not canadian…US WAR DEAD!
EDUCATE THYSELF ON THESE SELLOUT POLITICANS FROM BOTH PARTIES.
MAKE THESE SELLOUTS ANSWER THE TOUGH QUESTIONS.
LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE! STOP BEING DISTRACTED BY GOD, GUNS, N GAYS.
Search: North American Union, Amero, NAFTA Superhighway, etc…
6. GOP4ME | December 9th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Joe, seriously, what an incredibly weak post.
All you have offered is a load of anecdotal tripe that is supposed to trump over 50 straight months of economic growth? An unemployment rate of 4.7%? Goodness, no wonder the left is so habitually depressed. Can you imagine where they would be if the economy was actually anywhere near recessionary levels?
If $3 gas is killing you (which I highly doubt) then take corrective measures. But stay away from Europe or Canada where gas prices are significantly higher. Doesn’t seem to be killing them…. Furthermore, by your sophmoric post you seem like an alGore fan so aren’t higher gas prices (which he is calling for) a good thing?
Savings rates for Americans have been low for years and certainly are not as a result of the current President. It is an issue to be sure but for you to pin this situation on W is a partisan statement of the highest order.
Credit cards maxed out? Simple. Don’t use them! There, problem solved. According to you the government is somehow responsible for our maxed out credit (although I pay mine off every month as my parents taught me)? If I can’t afford, I don’t buy.
Talk about a perfect example of the difference between a ‘Rat (big brother government) and a GOP’er (personal responsibility).
What? What? 51 months of consecutive growth! 4.7% unemployment! Economy strong enough to weather a significant credit tightening!
If you were walking down the street and found a bag full of money you would complain about it being too heavy to carry home….
7. Jay Gaultieri | December 9th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
Larry Kudlow, along with Mark Noonan, predicted a huge victory for the Republican Party in the November 2006 elections. That gives an example of how accurate his predictions can be.
Missing from Kudlow’s commentary about 100,000+ monthly job growth is that the economy needs to create 150,000 jobs monthly to break even. When Clinton left office was oil was $27 a barrel and not Kudlow is bragging it has “retreated” to $88. How is that is possible if everything is only going up 2.8% a year?Kudlow doesn’t say core inflation index when he says 2.8%, although that seems to be what he’s referring to. That core inflation index doesn’t include the cost of food or gas, which we all know has gone up.
Earlier this year I changed jobs. The job I had was a good drive away and just two-and-a-half years ago was a viable option for employment. I quit when I realized that due to the cost of gas I could have gotten a job closer to home for ten bucks an hour and netted the same amount of money. Luckily I was able to find a job closer to home for only slightly more money but with a 15 minute commute by subway. The gain in cash flow has been tremendous. Despite the bootstraps rhetoric in previous posts not everyone has the opportunities I do.
This blog has attacked universal children’s medical insurance and a rise in the minimum wage as disastrous ideas for the US economy. President Bush’s failed attempt to to ban overtime pay was defended by calling me a homosexual. My state, a purple state that is trending bluer like most of America, has CHIP; a higher than national minimum wage; and mandatory overtime pay for hourly workers. None of the doom-and-gloom scenarios propagated by the hard right happened here.
So remember this when Larry Kudlow, or talk radio, or that Neanderthal who justified the outlawing of overtime pay by calling me a homosexual start talking about the economy: They’re talking out of their collective ass.
8. Mark Noonan | December 9th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
As a matter of curiosity, who says we need 150,000 new jobs each month just to stay even?
9. Christian Wright | December 9th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
The fact that each month breaks the number of bankruptcies that was just set the month before is a pretty good indication of where things are goin.
10. Diana Powe | December 9th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Of course, a significant part of the reason crude oil prices have gone up is that the pricing is in decreasingly devalued U.S. dollars as well as a flight of investment funds from mortgage-based vehicles. This led to the recent discussions by OPEC ministers to make an unprecedented change in that arrangement.
Source: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article2900511.ece
(emphasis added)
So, my question to the estimable Larry Kudlow is why is the dollar experiencing such a decline if our economy is experiencing such good times?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-worlddollar.html
11. Christian Wright | December 10th, 2007 at 7:35 am
10,000-plus foreclosures since 2003. Of these, 3,200 were starter homes.
Without action, the foreclosures will get worse. We will have suburban ghost towns. Deregulation of the loan industry allowed this to happen. ARMS and intrest only loans never should have been legal to begin with, but deregulation under Republican rule let the crooks do whatever they wanted.
The false liquidity generated by CDO only helped hedge funds reap huge profits. Now the US will bail out the banks and funds, but leave the Middleclass homeless.
The bill proposed the stop the ARMS from resetting is voluntary and banks will decide who qualifies and who doesn’t. Kiss your retirement savings goodbye, because the banks will want it to pay for their criminal excuse of a loan.
12. plainjane | December 10th, 2007 at 9:05 am
Diana Powe | December 9th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
So, my question to the estimable Larry Kudlow is why is the dollar experiencing such a decline if our economy is experiencing such good times?
Good question, but it doesn’t take Kudlow to answer. The dollar slide is a direct result of the massive debt the Republican congress saddled this nation with. To add salt to the wound Republicans think they were clever by keeping the estimated two trillion dollar Iraqi Civil war debt off budget. However key investors who hold our debt securities in other countries such as China know a rotting fish when they smell one. They are not fooled by these cleaver budgeting tactics.
A better question is, why is it that the price of staples such as milk, gas, eggs, meat and appliances are all increasing in price yet the Fed continues to cut interest rates? Answer - keep this fake economy going until next November!
13. Dasein Libsbane | December 10th, 2007 at 11:39 am
“why is the dollar experiencing such a decline if our economy is experiencing such good times”
Diana,
The two are not mutually exclusive. A few things to keep in mind; the value of the dollar has long been the result of international buying power; this has been inflated over the years by the Far East’s currency manipulation. To sell their products here, China, Japan and the Gulf countries (and others) peg their currency to the dollar rather than floating it on the international market. Obviously this is because ours is the strongest economy and we have the largest market for their products. The trade deficit has stabilized and has shrunk as a share of GDP owing (in part) to the devaluation of the dollar.
14. Dasein Libsbane | December 10th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Christian,
Record bankruptcies? Do you just make stuff up? In 2006 there were 349,012 non business bankruptcies in the US; in 2001 (Clinton’s “economic boom) there were 1,349,471!
Maybe you meant “record foreclosures” maybe; in 1998 0.43% of mortgages resulted in foreclosure; today it stands at 0.44%. In 2001 (Clinton’s economic boom) foreclosures made up 0.47%.
The banks made criminal loans? Are those the same criminal loans that put first time buyers (the very ones you’re complaining that are losing their homes) into the homes in the first place? So, it’s not the fault of the sub-prime (deadbeat) borrowers it’s the fault of the heartless bankers that loaned them the money to buy a house in the first place. Good logic!
Don’t know if you’ve heard about this latest fad in statistics; it’s called facts.
15. Joe | December 10th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Dasein Libsbane | December 10th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Record bankruptcies? Do you just make stuff up? In 2006 there were 349,012 non business bankruptcies in the US; in 2001 (Clinton’s “economic boom) there were 1,349,471!
— of course that was because the Republican Congress made it so much more difficult for anyone to declare bancrupcy. But that is a matter for another time.
And thanks for blaming those “deadbeat” borrowers. Everyone should be as financially savvy as you apparently. If they aren’t, then they deserve to have some financial institutions take advantage of them.
16. Diana Powe | December 10th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Part of the potential justification for the term criminal loans is the predatory lending practices that led some lenders to direct borrowers who had credit sufficient to justify an ordinary home mortgage into subprime mortgages because of the financial incentive to the lender.
17. Dasein Libsbane | December 10th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Caveat emptor.
“Republican Congress made it so much more difficult for anyone to declare bancrupcy”
I think you mean to say, Congress required that persons declaring bankruptcy should tell the truth about their finances.
Either way, it was either record bankruptcies or that was a lie.
18. brian | December 11th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Dasein, could you please provide a link to where you got your information? Also, Clinton was not the President after January 20, 2001.
19. Dasein Libsbane | December 11th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
US Bankruptcy Court.
Bankruptcies filed in 2001 are rthe reusult of the economy in that year; one full year before the first Bush Budget. Which Administration do you believe was responsible for economic conditions in 2001 (Recession)?
20. Diana Powe | December 12th, 2007 at 2:03 am
Hmm, what are they worried about?
21. Jay Gaultieri | December 12th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/jobsgrowth.asp
22. Cavalor Epthith, Esquire, DSVJ | December 27th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Dasein,
After his budget in 2002 and 2003 you can see the continued march of non business bankruptcies 1,539,111 for the former and 1,625,208 for the latter. The figure of 597,965 for 2006 reflects the difficulties involved in the new bankruptcy laws eliminating the walk away from debt that consumers, read Middle Class Americans, of which they had become accustomed. You did neglect to mention that 2,039,214 filed for bankruptcy in 2005 ahead of the law change just for that reason fear the draconian new laws.
The average throughout the Clinton years was right around 1.1 million non business filings per year while the Bush average even with the sharp decrease in 2006 is just over 1.4 million per fiscal year.
Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!