Fighting To Win
December 11th, 2007 at 10:59pm Matt Margolis
Despite the Democrats extraordinary efforts to take Ohio’s Fifth Congressional District, and recent polls showing a close race there, with 98% report, Republican Bob Latta won with 57% of the vote. Looks like false attack ads couldn’t sway the district to the Democrats…
We also won in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, where Democrats had recruited a nationally acclaimed school teacher and decorated Iraq war veteran. It was a conservative district, and the DCCC chose not to meddle in that race, but they’d talked up their chances for victory in that race, but ultimately the conservative message for lower taxes and securing our borders prevailed.
While the left will say these were races the GOP should have won anyway, I think it’s important to note the attitude towards the OH-05 race prior to the election.
Latta campaign manager Matthew D. Parker says both parties see the contest as “a key battleground for the 2008 presidential election.” He views the Democratic push for Weirauch as “a test run to get Hillary Clinton into the White House.”
“I think it’s a bellwether for Ohio and a bellwether for the country,” agrees the dean of Ohio’s Democratic congressional delegation, Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, who backs Weirauch. She calls the race a “tossup” and predicts the side that gets the most supporters to the polls in a low-turnout special election will win.
Let’s say that it is true, that OH-05 was a bellwether for Ohio and the country… then we can’t ignore the fact that in 2006, Governor Ted Strickland, a Democrat, won the district with 55% and Sherrod Brown, also a Democrat also won the district in his U.S. Senate race.
But, there is something that bothers me. The liberal nutroots put a lot of money into the race… ridiculously out-raising the conservative rightroots. Despite various plugs from this and other blog, only $1,908 was raised from 21 donors on SlateCard. Meanwhile the liberal netroots raised $15,605 from 320 donors via ActBlue for Latta’s opponent, Robin Weirauch. While it’s good that the conservative message trumps liberal cash, I do wonder why the right pales in the comparison to the left when it comes to online fundraising. I hope the rightroots can unite in 2008…
So, we won tonight… the polls said OH-05 was close, but we got it in a landslide. Democrats certainly appeared confident about it, but we prevailed in the end. But, let’s not get our hopes up with all this talk about a bellwether for 2008. We can win back the majority in both Houses of Congress, but we’ll have to win them one race at a time. We can win the White House in 2008, but we have to be united behind the nominee.
Let’s fight to win. The Democrats may be confident about 2008, but they were confident about OH-05 and VA-01, too…
UPDATE: More from David All at Slatecard.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Congress, Republicans
10 Comments
1. Aaron | December 11th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
Matt, congratulations on holding the seat.
However, as usual, there are a couple things you left out. First, the outcome here represents a 6 point improvement by the Dems in this district over 2004. Second, although Dems did outraise the Repubs as far as internet contributions, overall the Republicans spent about twice as much as Dems on this race… all to hold a seat in firmly Republican territory.
All in all, not a good sign for ‘08.
2. David Aulds | December 11th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Aaron were not talking about 04 here we are talking about 06 to 08. In 2006 Virginia 1 Davis got 63% and Wittman tonight got 61% only 2% below 06. Not a huge difference at all. In Ohio 5 Latta got 57% the same percentage as Gillmor in 06. Weirauch DID NOT improve on her total from 06. We won big in both and by my count we have every single 07 election except for Kentucky Gov and that MASS House Seat. The Democrats are worried and they should be.
3. Aaron | December 12th, 2007 at 12:56 am
David -
“In Ohio 5 Latta got 57% the same percentage as Gillmor in 06. Weirauch DID NOT improve on her total from 06.”
In other words, Weirauch only equaled what she did in 2006, a year which featured a Democratic tidalwave in Ohio. And this in a district which Bush won 61% - 39% in 2004.
Again, the RNC outspent the Dems 2 to 1 here just to hold onto a seat they’ve held since before our grandparents were born. In 2008, the Repubs won’t have that kind of money to spread around just to defend solidly Republican districts.
“…and by my count we have every single 07 election except for Kentucky Gov and that MASS House Seat. The Democrats are worried and they should be.”
Well, first off, since 2007 is an off-year, there were hardly any elections to begin with. So “every single 07 election” really means: not many at all.
But caveats aside, you’re still wrong.
There were 3 gubernatorial elections in 07. The Republicans got a pick up in Louisiana, and the Dems got a pick up in Kentucky. Net change: 0
There were state legislative elections in 4 states: Mississippi, Lousiana, New Jersey, and Virginia. In those elections, the Dems took control of the Virginia and Mississippi State Senates away from Repubs. Net change in legislative control: Dems +2
There were 5 special US congressional elections in 2007 - in all 5 the incumbent party (3 Repubs, and 3 Dem) retained the seat (including tonight’s Ohio 5th). Net change: 0
Finally, there were 10 major US cities that had mayoral elections this year. Of those, 8 were won by Democrats.
So overall, the Dems slightly got the better of Repubs in the few elections that happened in 2007. The only worry about 2008 is on the Republican side, where you are staring at massive losses.
My 2008 predictions: Dems win back the White House, pick up 10 more seats in the US House, and 5 seats in the US Senate.
4. phnx | December 12th, 2007 at 1:22 am
eron,
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
5. Albums of the 1970s &raqu&hellip | December 12th, 2007 at 2:22 am
[…] Fighting To WinBy Matt MargolisIt was a conservative district, and the DCCC chose not to meddle in that race, but they’d talked up their chances for victory in that race, but ultimately the conservative message for lower taxes and securing our borders prevailed. …Blogs For Victory - http://blogsforvictory.com […]
6. keef--Not Cruisin--Yet!!! | December 12th, 2007 at 5:40 am
Getting behind our nominee in ‘08 is essential. Now the NY Slimes is at it again with their poll, telling us that the GOP is apathetic towards its crop of presidential candidates. Remember, the ‘06 mid-term elections went the traditional way, and was in no way, shape, or form a Donkaroach landslide, or a mandate on Iraq.
Look at what we’re up against–Hillary, the most divisive woman in America, Obama, a smooth-talking liar who plays the race card, and Edwards, whose legacy is that he’s an ambulance chaser whose “daddy worked in a meal.” This should not even be close, yet we’re fighting tradition, the DBM, and a dumbed-down electorate. Also, we have no real leadership in Washington in the GOP, just a bunch of spinless go-along-to-get-along types who are more concerned with holding on to their jobs than fighting back.
7. OhioOrrin | December 12th, 2007 at 6:53 am
who cannot like the message of lower taxes…when it’s combined w lower spending.
this combined w shrinking the federal govt & respecting states rights will return the GOP to it’s Reagan roots.
this is a much more attractive msg to indies & center right dems than the social conservatives can provide.
8. David Aulds | December 12th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Aaron your dead wrong in regard to your 2008 predictions. The Democrats in 08 will not pickup any seats in the House but may in the senate. Mark my words the GOP will pickup 8 to 10 seats in the house. We will definetly win in Texas 22 and Texas 23 for sure. We have a decent shot at seats in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Georgia aswell. We will however have to work hard but we will pickup seats in 08.
9. phnx | December 12th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Ohio,
I agree, add to that border protection, and a reasonable immigration policy that permits work visas but does not grant amnesty or a road to citizenship and that’s a winning platform.
10. Grant Money For Home Impr&hellip | February 9th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Soundproofing Materials for Your Home Improvement Ideas
I want so badly to preface all of this and all my attitudes against noise with an apology, a disclaimer, but I can’t. I just can’t. We have too much frickin fracken noise in our homes that i have to come up with unique home improvement ideas. We have…