Democrats Claim Victory in 2008, and Beyond
December 23rd, 2007 at 08:22pm Mark Noonan
So say John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira, authors of the book The Emerging Democratic Majority:
Democrats’ growing advantage doesn’t necessarily translate into voter registration. In many states, the fastest growing group of voters is independents. But many of these voters have the same center or center-left sensibility as the Democrats — maybe with an added emphasis on good government and fiscal responsibility. The leftward tilt of independents has only been intensified by dismay about the war in Iraq and by Republican scandals. In 2006, independents nationwide voted Democratic by a margin of 57 percent to 39 percent.
These trends should give Democrats a striking political advantage over the next decade, and perhaps longer. This edge won’t necessarily entail thumping, New Deal-style congressional majorities or certain victory in presidential elections. Presidents are chosen for their (presumed) character and leadership abilities, not just for their political program and party. So the United States may well have a Democratic Congress and a Republican president in 2009. But it isn’t likely. Republicans, who grew fat and happy during Bush’s first term, anticipating decades of rule, face some lean years ahead.
Aside from trends which stretch over that vast distance of time from 2006 to 2007, the authors are a bit thin on actual evidence of a leftward shift in the overall American electorate. Of course, the lynchpin is the Democrats 2006 win - the “proof” that the people are deciding that the modern Democratic party is the place they want to call home. Left out of the analysis is the fact that the Democrats House majority rests on seats won by Democrats running as Republicans in Republican districts, several of which had been hit by scandals in the GOP incumbant. Also left out is the way the Democrats barely squeeked out their Senate majority by very narrow wins of two GOP seats (literally, a few thousand votes the other way and there would be 51 GOP Senators right now).
The authors would have a stronger case of a rising Democrat majority if the Democrats had actually run on core Democratic principles in 2006 - higher taxes, federally funded abortion on demand, gay marriage, increased spending, increased regulations to enforce political correctness, racial quotas and set-asides, open borders, surrender in Iraq, appeasement of America’s enemies, etc, etc, etc. As it was, the Democrats ran on a raise in the minimum wage, a “new direction” in Iraq, and against an alleged GOP “culture of corruption”; in other words, pablum designed to offend as few as possible, rather than a bold program for change.
And, of course, the GOP vote stayed home - and the GOP vote includes GOP leaning independents, which explains why independents went so heavily for the Democrats in 2006. Independents, you see, aren’t just independent people who carefully weigh candidates and programs and make a decision based on that - no, they are mostly proto-Democrats and proto-Republicans, with a small number of actual independents. While an independent who leans GOP may vote for a Democrat, you won’t find an independent who favors low taxes, low spending and winning the war switching over to liberal Democrats; 2006 wasn’t so much a switch of independents to the Democrats as a lack of GOP-leaning independents showing up (60% of American voters turned out in 2004, 40% in 2006 - and for the House, nearly the same number of Americans were eligible to vote in both years; but how does that compare with past big mid-terms? 41% in 1994, 42% in 1982…in other words, turnout in 2006 was nothing to write home about, and in percentage terms was less than the last two bigs shifts in Congress).
It is noted that on some actual issues, people are leaning Democrat - of course, when you ask if people favor “health care”, it requires a bit of care. Naturally, people want the world’s best surgeon to be available, for free, to help them with a hangnail - Democrats promise this, and thus win the “who do you like on healthcare” poll question; but when it gets down to practical application, it doesn’t work out so well for Democrats, as Hillary found out in 1993. More noted is how everyone hates the GOP, according to the authors. The people hate the GOP because of the debacle in Iraq, because of GOP opposition to abortion, because of all those Christian conservatives, because of those GOPers who want to secure the borders…the usual litany of why people hate the GOP, which has been put out every year for as long as I can remember - the unstated message is that if the GOP would just ditch the pro-lifers, surrender in Iraq, give the heave-ho to the Christians and be in favor of open borders, everyone would like us. Presumptively they’d like us as much as they like the Democrats, I guess - the odd thing here is that no Democrat has scored a majority of the Presidential vote since 1976 when Jimmy Carter barely eked out the narrowest of majorities against a President Ford saddled with the residue of Nixon and Vietnam.
All I can say is: we’ll see. In November of 2008 about 60% of the American people will show up to vote - in other words, about 50% more than showed up in November of 2006. Will they surge to the Democrats and hand them the White House and increased congressional majorities? I suppose they could - anything is possible. But I don’t think it will come out that way.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
16 Comments
1. Retired Spook | December 23rd, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Back in the run-up to the 2004 Presidential election I got into a contest with a liberal Democrat friend of mine to see which of us could come up with the most things that we disliked about the other’s party. As I recall, he came up with around a dozen. I stopped at 50. I posted this a couple years ago, so several of the old-timers will probably remember it. Some of the items are obviously dated, so Kahn, neocon, AAR, Almiranta and any of the rest of the Conservatives here feel free to modify or update the list. As for you Lefties here, this will at least give you a clue as to why we Conservatives hold you in such contempt.
About the time we started our contest I heard a discussion on the radio about racial profiling and the war on terror. The point was made that, while not all Muslims are terrorists, the vast majority of terrorists are Muslims. Political junkie that I am, my first thought was that this same principle applies to Democrats, so I oriented my list around that phrase. As I explained to Almiranta not to long ago, I was, for many years, what could only be described as an “unexamined Republican”. Ronald Reagan changed that and compiling this list reinforced in my mind why I am a Conservative and a Republican (in that order). In addition to supporting Republican principles of smaller, less intrusive government (I know, this current crop has dropped the ball in this regard), lower taxes, entrepreneurship and personal responsibility, there are just so many things about the Democrat Party that I find morally repugnant and intellectually dishonest.
1. Not all Democrats compare their political opponents to Hitler and refer to them publicly as fascists, Nazis, digital brown shirts, book burners, Satan, the real terrorists, worse than Sadam, etc., but it is only Democrats who do this. (These are from public comments by prominent Democrats just during the 2004 campaign. I have NEVER heard a Republican use any of these words to describe a Democrat.)
2. Not all Democrats support partial birth abortion, but virtually all supporters of partial birth abortion are Democrats.
3. Not all Democrats are radical environmentalists who believe that man is the greatest threat to the planet, but nearly all radical environmentalists are Democrats.
4. Not all Democrats oppose private property rights, but the vast majority of those who oppose private property rights are Democrats.
5. Not all Democrats oppose school choice, but the majority of those who do are Democrats.
6. Not all Democrats believe the government can spend our money more wisely than we can, but most of the people who do are Democrats.
7. Not all Democrats support homosexual marriage, but the majority of those who support homosexual marriage are Democrats.
8. Not all Democrats believe that the main purpose of a business is to provide jobs, but nearly all who believe so are Democrats.
9. Not all Democrats believe that our Constitution is a living document that can and should be changed primarily by the courts rather than by the will of the People through the amendment process, but most who believe this way are Democrats.
10. Not all Democrats praise and admire (or, at the very least, apologize for) brutal communist dictators like Fidel Castro, but the only people who do are Democrats.
11. Not all Democrats believe that if we just leave the terrorists alone, they will leave us alone, but the vast majority who believe so are Democrats.
12. Not all Democrats support turning over a substantial portion of our national security to the United Nations, but the only people who support this are Democrats.
13. Not all Democrats believe that by making America weaker we will make America safer, but virtually all who believe so are Democrats.
14. Not all Democrats believe that tax cuts cause deficits, but the majority of people who do are Democrats. (Federal revenue from individual income taxes grew at a nearly 50% faster rate in the five years following Reagan’s tax cuts than it did during the five years following Bush Sr.’s and Clinton’s tax increases in the early 90’s. (source – Statistical Abstract of US) Were it not for 911, the Dot.Com stock market bubble burst, the War on Terror and numerous corporate scandals that originated during the Clinton years, the Bush tax cuts would have likely produced the same result. As it is, most economists agree that the tax cuts, at the very least, dramatically lessened the severity of the recession. A noted Nobel Laureate in Economics recently stated publicly that the only thing wrong with the Bush tax cuts was that they weren’t big enough. (update – summer, 2005 – Federal revenue from individual income taxes increased dramatically)
15. Not all Democrats want to repeal the Second Amendment, but most of those who do are Democrats. If they ever mount a serious attempt at repeal, they will find out why the Founding Fathers included it in the Bill of Rights. (Hint – it doesn’t have anything to do with hunting or target shooting.)
16. Not all Democrats have a static view of the economy, but nearly all who do are Democrats. A static view holds that for every winner of life’s lottery there must, by necessity, be a loser; that the rich got that way only at the expense of the poor. A Dynamic view holds that our economy is ever-expanding, that a rising tide lifts all boats.
17. Not all Democrats believe that there are people in this world who neither desire nor deserve freedom, but virtually the only people who express this belief publicly are Democrats. (Of all the beliefs and positions on this list, I find this to be the most offensive.) This “cultural condescension” as Ronald Reagan termed it, has been soundly rebuked in such major world powers as Germany, Japan and India. In fact, the number of free, democratic governments has quadrupled in the last 30 years, a growth spurt of freedom unequaled in human history. The most absurd question posed by Democrats with regard to the liberation of Afghanistan and Iraq is “what will we do if they vote for an Islamic theocracy”? That is like asking what we would do if an innocent person freed from prison voted to go back to prison.
18. Not all Democrats hold the American Military in distain, but the vast majority of those who do are Democrats.
19. Not all Democrats believe that we deserved what happened to us on September 11, 2001, but most of those who believe so are Democrats.
20. Not all Democrats are playing politics with national security, but virtually the only ones doing so are Democrats.
21. Not all Democrats believe people should receive government assistance based on the color of their skin instead of their economic circumstances, but it is almost exclusively Democrats who believe this.
22. Not all Democrats believe the First Amendment applies only to those who agree with them, but it is clearly only Democrats who believe this. During the 2004 election cycle Democrats tried to stop the publishing of the book “Unfit for Command”, then threatened legal action against bookstores that sold it. They also threatened legal action against radio and TV stations that carried the Swift Vet ads, and attempted to get the FCC to stop the Sinclair Television Network airing of the Vietnam documentary “Stolen Honor”. One Kerry campaign staffer, Chad Clanton, even went so far as to threaten Sinclair in public, saying “they better hope we don’t win”. (THIS IS REALLY FRIGHTENING!) On the flip side, anti-Bush books, documentaries and news shows have numbered in the dozens, one even based largely on forged military documents (a felony). There has been no effort (at least publicly) on the part of the Bush campaign to stifle any of these, often vicious, attacks.
23. Not all Democrats believe convicted felons and illegal aliens should be allowed to vote, but it is only Democrats who believe this.
24. Not all Democrats believe public school teachers should not be held accountable for education results, but it is mostly Democrats who believe this.
25. Not all Democrats advocate violence as an acceptable form of public protest, but Democrats have a virtual monopoly on violence as a protest tactic. During the 2004 election cycle local Republican headquarters have been shot at, broken into, ransacked and stormed by union-led mobs. Bush supporters have been assaulted and had their tires slashed. I have not seen one single report of any of these tactics being used by Republicans.
26. Not all Democrats deny the existence of good and evil, but it is mostly Democrats who are apprehensive about defining things in terms of good and evil lest they be perceived as morally judgmental.
27. Not all Democrats are radical feminists, but virtually all radical feminists are Democrats.
28. Not all Democrats confuse patriotism with loyalty, but it is mostly Democrats who seem not to understand the difference. Patriotism is a feeling, a “love or devotion to one’s country.” Loyalty, by definition, is an action word. It is “allegiance to one’s country” or “faithfulness to one’s government.” Many traitors have come and gone calling themselves “patriots.” Few would agree they were being “loyal.”
29. Not all Democrats believe we are under-taxed, but the only people who believe so are Democrats. They often point to the United States as being the lowest taxed of all developed countries as though that was a bad thing. It is the reason our unemployment rate is half and our economic growth rate is double or triple that of most of the European countries Democrats like to cite as examples we should emulate.
30. Not all Democrats support using our military primarily for humanitarian reasons but not when our interests are threatened, however, it is mostly Democrats who believe this way.
31. Not all Democrats are cheaters, but election fraud by Democrats has become so widespread that it’s even inspired a new best-selling book: “If It’s Not Close, They Can’t Cheat”. When was the last time you heard reports of “dead” Republicans voting?
32. Not all Democrats support the exploitation of injured, ill and physically handicapped people for political purposes, but Democrats have refined such exploitation into an art form. Recent exploitations of Christopher Reeve, Michael J. Fox, Max Cleland and the amputee soldier reciting a litany of lies in the recent TV ad funded by Operation Truth, coupled with the blatant lie that President Bush has banned stem cell research, are simply beyond contempt.
33. Not all Democrats believe that people like Whoopie Goldberg, Sean Penn, Danny Glover, and Michael Moore represent the “heart and soul of America”, but it is only Democrats, including their Presidential nominee (who said so publicly), who believe so.
34. Not all Democrats think that Homeland Security should be held hostage to union collective bargaining demands, but it was only Democrats in Congress who opposed the creation of the Department of Homeland Security unless it contained a collective bargaining provision. Then they had the nerve to publicly demagogue the President because of his opposition to unionization of DHS.
35. Not all Democrats, when they’re unable to defend their positions, resort to calling their political opponents names, (ie: racist, bigot, homophobe, etc.) but this is a tactic used almost exclusively by Democrats.
36. Not all Democrats believe that America spreads nothing but evil and misery around the world, but it is only Democrats who believe this way.
37. Not all Democrats are oblivious to the Law of Diminishing Returns, but Democrats in particular seem not to understand this important concept as it applies to government spending related to problem solving. (ie: clean air and water)
38. Not all Democrats realize it yet, but their party has become defined, as the noted columnist Victor Davis Hanson so aptly put it, “by pampered New York metropolitan columnists, billionaire heiresses, financial speculators, and a weird assortment of embittered novelists, bored rock stars and out-of-touch Hollywood celebs”.
39. Not all Democrats see the desirable outcome of military conflict as an exit strategy rather than as victory, but it is almost exclusively Democrats who believe this way.
40. Not all Democrats believe the solution to energy independence is through restricting energy consumption and expanding alternative energy sources (don’t even get me started on their hypocrisy with regard to alternative sources) rather than by simply finding more existing sources of energy (or some combination of the three), but it is mostly Democrats who hold this view.
41. Not all Democrats compare Terrorists to our Revolutionary Minutemen and refer to them as “Freedom Fighters”, but it is only Democrats who have made such references publicly. (This comes in a close second to #17 in the offensive category) The real Freedom Fighters are the men and women of the United States Military. I challenge anyone who doubts this to make a side by side list of all the countries Islamic Terrorists have freed from oppression and the number that have been liberated by the US Military.
42. Not all Democrats believe the Boy Scouts is an evil organization, but the individuals in the ACLU who are waging all out war on the Boy Scouts are certainly not Republicans. As a former Eagle Scout, I am repulsed by the ACLU’s attempts to force ideologies on the Boy Scouts in the name of diversity that are inconsistent with their founding principles.
43. Not all Democrats preach tolerance but practice intolerance (of those who disagree with them), but Democrats have become highly skilled at such hypocrisy.
44. Not all Democrats value effort over results, but such a mindset has come to define the modern Democrat Party. I’m not sure if it’s because the Democrat Party is dominated by liberals who are more emotional and effort oriented, or if Democrats would rather just have specific problems as ongoing campaign issues instead of simply solving the problems in the first place. Either way it’s a difficult position to defend.
45. Not all Democrats are anti-Christian (in fact, many are devout Christians), but the anti-Christian vitriol and hostility coming from liberal Democrats is a poison that, if not checked, will lead to a marginalization from which The Democrat Party may not soon recover. One only needs to go online and read the Letters to the Editor page of any major newspaper or news magazine to see the extent of the problem.
46. Not all Democrats value equality over liberty, but I believe one of the main reasons the Democrat Party is in decline (anyone who doubts this must be living under a rock.) is the growing number of Democrats who believe equality trumps every other human condition. This kind of thinking breeds moral relativism, resulting in the elevation of immoral or amoral minorities at the expense of moral majorities.
47. Not all Democrats favor diplomatic negotiations over military victory as the surest road to lasting peace, but diplomacy clearly finds its home in the Democrat Party while history is emphatically on the side of victory.
48. Not all Democrats believe in a dependent society as opposed to an ownership society, but the opposition to President Bush’s proposals for Personal Retirement Accounts, Medical Savings Accounts and Lifetime Savings Accounts is almost exclusively by Democrats.
49. Not all Democrats confuse values with opinions, but the 2004 election proved that a large number of Democrats don’t know the difference. An opinion is what we think about an issue. Values concern what we know to be right, given what we have been taught - - religiously, ethically and morally. One can only hope that peoples’ values inform their opinions. Until a majority of Democrats understand this concept they will continue to lose elections.
50. And last but not least, not all Democrats eventually get fed up with the fact that their party has been hijacked by the lunatic fringe and become Republicans, but there are a lot more ex-Democrats in the Republican Party than the other way around. Kind of says it all, doesn’t it?
If you are a Democrat, do you admit to supporting the beliefs, principles, policies and positions stated here? If not, you are out of step with the leaders of your party. If you do, how do you defend your position without ignoring the facts and the truth? You ultimately risk being tied by interests you cannot or will not admit to arguments you cannot defend.
2. js | December 23rd, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Democrats come very close to shattering my belief that good will eventually overcome evil.
Ignorance is a choice.
3. Diana Powe | December 24th, 2007 at 1:42 am
Mark,
Who do you think you’re persuading with this kind of twaddle?
Blogs For Victo(r)y is a home for the permanent 30%ers for whom all Democrats are the hated enemy and President George W. Bush can do no wrong. So, why bother to trivialize an issue that really is a problem for both parties by falsely claiming that anyone, anywhere promises “the world’s best surgeon to be available, for free, to help them with a hangnail”?
If you were actually alert to the political winds, except as you could interpret them for some return to GOP ascendancy, you would see that poll after poll shows that our continued presence in Iraq and the cost of health care are the number 1 and 2 issues on the minds of voters. People are unhappy with the state of health care in the country in a way that is much more significant than in 1993. Now you can issue as much happy-talk as you want to the effect that Americans have the best health care system in the world. Presumably, you think your coverage is just dandy. However, Americans’ demonstrated unhappiness with the “system” is going to go somewhere. Currently, it’s going to the Democratic Party. That’s just political reality.
That being the case, the Republican Party can stick with the line of “you have the best health-care in the world” or they can offer something that at least looks like it might be a change from the status quo. However, sticking with the status quo, is playing with political fire and I’m afraid you’re going to see the GOP get burned.
4. neocon | December 24th, 2007 at 8:02 am
Diana,
Conservatives hardly believe that Bush can do no wrong. We have anguished and harangued him over his failures; Harriet Meiers, SS, spending like a drunken sailor, etc. So that is your first dishonest assumption.
Secondly, Mitt Romney has the best, broadest health care plan of all the candidates including the Democrats. So, yes, the GOP can run on Healthcare and win.
5. Diana Powe | December 24th, 2007 at 11:55 am
neocon,
So what is Governor Romney’s plan? He’s apparently disavowed the Massachusetts plan he signed into law because conservatives don’t like it.
6. Diana Powe | December 24th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
And this story independent of its merits is a big reason that a plan that simply mandates that everyone buy private health insurance isn’t likely to be very popular.
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=4043101&page=1
7. Mark Noonan | December 24th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Diana,
If you were to contact me in a poll and ask, “do you think our healtcare system is good or bad”, I’d answer “bad”. Once again, though, I think its bad for different reasons than a liberal might think it bad. The problem you on the left have is that you assume that any poll majority which you like MUST be a poll majority agreeing with your position - but that is not necessarily the case.
In order for you to have confidence in a poll on healthcare vis a vis the Democrats, you’d have to ask poll questions with specific details of Democratic health care proposals - and it is when you get down to that nitty gritty where you find the Democratic plans fall flat. In 1993, it was expected that universal health care would be adopted - it was polling very well, people were very disatisfied with the health care system and even GOPers weren’t in strong opposition. Along comes the details of the plan, however, and the whole thing collapsed - people want good health care, but they don’t want a lawyer in DC setting the rules. Try it again, and we’ll defeat it gain; its really that simple.
The hard facts of life are that there wasn’t a huge surge in voter participation in 2006 - meaning that it wasn’t as swing to the Democrats, but a swing away from Republicans. This still might translate into Democratic victory in 2008, but it doesn’t translate into an emerging Demcoratic majority.
8. Eric T | December 24th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Diane- you said
“Blogs For Victo(r)y is a home for the permanent 30%ers for whom all Democrats are the hated enemy and President George W. Bush can do no wrong”
You have been on this site everyday for at least, the last three months.
What do you like about this site that keeps you coming back?
9. Eric T | December 24th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
I don’t think the dems put out candidates or an agenda that people are going to get behind.
Everyone I work with is a democrat, none of them will vote Hillary, Obama, or Rudy. I think the dems put out some lousy candidates.
10. Diana Powe | December 24th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Eric T,
I think that Mark and Matt are very sincere in what they believe and represent a significant fraction part of the electorate. Reading sites you agree with consistently is fine, but, if you want to test your views inside yourself, you need to see what someone who likely disagrees with you says in order to avoid just living in an echo chamber. Then, if I decide to comment on something I disagree with, it forces me to think about what points I think I can bring as a counter-argument and usually do some research. This is more potentially useful to me than just saying “hear, hear!”
11. Eric T | December 24th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
It’s good that your here. Alot of times you alone present the other side, sometimes it is very strong.
Most of the Union guys like Edwards, do you think he will win?
12. Magnum Serpentine | December 25th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
Mark…
Of course the election will come out different, for the first time in over 150 or so years, both the Demo-publicans and Republicans will be in the Minority and the Independents will make up the Majority. The President will hopefully be an Independent also. I can hope at least. Can you imagine both the Republicans and Demo-Publicans in the Minority… Oh the Misery hehehe
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