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Iowa Caucus Predictions

January 2nd, 2008 at 12:37pm Mark Noonan

I predict there will be surprises. Other than that, I haven’t the foggiest notion how it will come out.

Anyone out there want to bravely make a prediction?

Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans


41 Comments

  • 1. Retired Spook  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 12:43 pm

    I’m not gonna stick my neck out and make any predictions, because odds are I’d be wrong. But I think it’s a sad commentary on the political system of the greatest country on earth that 2 nothing states (Iowa and New Hamshire) set the tone for the rest of the campaign. It’s sort of like giving significant weight to a straw poll at the local tavern in deciding the Miss America winner.

  • 2. Jonathan  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 12:46 pm

    Sure: for the Democrats, Edwards and Obama make big gains (meaning either one takes 1st or 2nd), while Hillary loses big. For the Republicans, i’m taking Huckabee with Romney coming in at a close second.

  • 3. Bob  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Twas the night of the caucus and all ‘cross the state,
    few voters are happy with the names on the slate.
    Though each name is printed on the ballot with love,
    the clear choice is missing: None of the Above.
    Bob McCarty Writes™

  • 4. Joe  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    I’m thinking Clinton is coming in 3rd with Richardson on very close in 4th. Edwards wins bigger than expected.

    Reps: Huck, McCain, Fred and Mitt drops big time with all his negativity.

  • 5. Rana Quijotesca  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Novak apparently thinks that Obama will win, with Clinton coming in third on the Dem side and that Romney will come in first, Huckster in second for the Reps.

  • 6. Canadian Observer  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    3. Bob | January 2nd, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Excellent!!!

    If only it were not the truth. Sigh.

  • 7. hermie  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    For the Dems:

    Obama First, Edwards Second, Clinton third.

    Edwards will be found in a snowbank in Iowa and a crudely written note pinned to his body will say that he now supports Clinton.

    For the GOP:

    Romney will edge out Huckabee with McCain a distant third.

    Ron Paul will pocket another $200,000 into the kitty but will still come in dead last.

  • 8. Cavalor Epthith, Esquire, D.S.V.J.  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    Clinton (35%), Obama(24%), Edwards (20%) Biden (7%) on the Democratic side in that order

    Huckabee (38%), McCain(26%), Romney (15%), Thompson(9%), Paul (6%) in that order on the GOP side

  • 9. JHL  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 3:08 pm

    Nice that spook sneers at Iowa and New Hampshire. I’ll bet the residents of those “nothing” states would beg to differ. Where do you live Spook? Arkansas? Alabama? Or the ever popular West Virginia where brothers can marry sisters to preserve the gene pool.

  • 10. Retired Spook  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 3:26 pm

    JHL, clearly you don’t pay attention. I’ve said numerous times on this blog that I live in Indiana. And I wouldn’t want an early primary in Indiana to have any significant influence on the direction that the campaign goes either. If we’re not willing to do what’s right and have a national primary, then the early states ought to at least represent a cross-section of the population. Clearly New Hampshire does not, and, with the way the Iowa Caucuses function, they don’t necessarily even represent Iowa.

    But thanks for the classless insult — I would expect nothing less from you.

  • 11. se7en  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 4:31 pm

    I couldn’t care less about liberals.

    GOP:

    Romney will win.

  • 12. neocon  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm

    I can see the headline now:

    WEB BLOGGER CLAIMS ALL WEST VIRGINIANS ARE INCESTOUS.

  • 13. Kahn  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 6:05 pm

    JHL
    - Just High (and) Laughing?
    - Just Hurled Lunch?
    - Jumping Horny Lizard?
    - Jinxes His Llama?
    or
    - ?

  • 14. JHL  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 6:28 pm

    I was just kidding about West Virginians.No offense intended.
    And I can’t disclose what JHL stands for. It’s a secret. But I will give you a hint Kahn. It is something that is found in better dept stores.

  • 15. LiberalMind  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 6:37 pm

    I can make one prediction that I know will come true:

    An unqualified, dishonest, two-faced Republican will win in Iowa because they are all unqualified, dishonest and two-faced.

    Except Ron Paul.

  • 16. Jay Gaultieri  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 8:23 pm

    Dems: Obama will beat out Hillary, and then the claws will really come out against Obama, because the DLC establishment and the corporate media want Hillary to win. Edwards will place better than expected, but he will be ignored because the DLC establishment and the corporate media want Hillary to win.

    Reps: Romney will edge out Huckabee, McCain will place ahead of Guiliani who is starting to fade.

    Other prediction: Mark Noonan and Matt Margolis are hoping for a Hillary victory because her nomination ensures a Rep victory in November.

  • 17. Rightlane  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 9:11 pm

    Repubs: Huckabee narrowly defeats Romney followed by McCain, Guiliani, Thompson, and Paul.

    Dems: Obama edges Clinton, followed distantly by Edwards and finally, Biden.

    The nightmare senrio for me would be Clinton winning the Dem’s nomination. Then, Bloomberg and or Paul splitting the conservative party by running as 3rd party candidates and viola, Hillary’s the next US President.

    Anyone know where can I get a New Zealand work visa just in case?

  • 18. Uncommon  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 9:23 pm

    According to this poll of 4,058 alleged Iowa voters
    Poitical Machine
    Huckabee(35%), Paul(34%), Romney(13%), Fred Thompson(7%). Sure this is not a “scientific poll” but as of yet 270,000+ people have voted just on the Republican side and for the most part the percentages match the national polls except for of course Ron Paul being second or first in almost ALL states. And before the Ron Paul poll spamming comments are spewed forth - the poll discards multiple votes from the same IP address. We shall see in about 24 hours.

  • 19. Uncommon  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    I forgot to close the quotes on my link tag. Sorry.

    Poitical Machine

  • 20. hermie  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 9:55 pm

    Bloomberg would likely pull liberal votes. He is by no means a conservative.

    Paul would be more of an irritant and gather a small fraction of the vote, as he is now. Not eough to sway an election.

  • 21. rubbersoul  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 pm

    neocon,

    Well, at least JHL didn’t call an American Service Member an “idiot” for getting blown up by a hand grenade….

    Cheers!

  • 22. Retired Spook  |  January 2nd, 2008 at 10:21 pm

    rubbersoul, as a retired naval officer, I respect Max Cleland’s service and sacrifice, but what exactly WOULD you call someone who jumped out of a helicopter, and, without thinking, reached down and picked up a loose grenade?

  • 23. rubbersoul  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 12:06 am

    Spook said…..

    “rubbersoul, as a retired naval officer, I respect Max Cleland’s service and sacrifice, but what exactly WOULD you call someone who jumped out of a helicopter, and, without thinking, reached down and picked up a loose grenade?”

    An American hero? What would you call this guy…

    http://blog.masslive.com/breakingnews/2007/02/parents_feel_shock_relief_at_s.html

    Really, if Max had supported GW we wouldn’t be having this conversation. That’s the beauty of partisan politics and double standards.

  • 24. Laura  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 1:38 am

    Does anyone know the official day that Bush leaves office because when I find out the ~~~VERY DAY~~~~~ that he moves out i am gonna throw a mad party! I mean, we could have one heckofava come to Jesus celebration. anybody game?

    Otherwise, I think Edwards will come out on top.

    2008 will be great!
    8 years of my life has gone

  • 25. Mark Noonan  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 am

    Laura,

    Please accept my prayers for your recovery - and I do hope the mental counseling your are receiving is doing you some good - because you’re clearly unbalanced.

  • 26. Huck Fillary  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 4:31 am

    I couldn’t care less about liberals.

    Ditto, se7en. Also, I couldn’t care less about Iowa, because the Hawkeye Cauci are mostly rabid voters from the extremes of both parties. Given that, Silky Pony should win easily on the Donkaroach side, because he’s the most radical socialist of the top three Donks. As for the GOP, I really don’t know–Romney’s pumped a lot of dough into Iowa, and if he doesn’t finish first or second, it could be over for him.

    But, as I said, who cares about Iowa? It’s merely the tailgate party before the Super Bowl. The fun starts in NH.

    btw, who’s that idiot Cleland endorsing?

  • 27. Huck Fillary  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 4:36 am

    Laura,

    Pretty sad that you let one man affect your life and happiness. Not a very stron person, are ya?

    Enjoy your party; you’ll have plenty of company. You can call it the BDS-sufferers Ball…

  • 28. Dan  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 am

    RON PAUL will win…

  • 29. neocon  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 8:58 am

    Laura,

    I am offended by your naming Jesus in terms of your political party.

    Why do Democrats insist on bringing religion into politics?

  • 30. John Ryan  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 9:14 am

    when the hatred for all things Democrat spews one should take a look at just what groups make up the modern Democratic Party. According to the CNN exit poll of 13,000 polled in 2006 some of the people who chose to vote for the Democratic Party were.
    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html

    55% of all women ((only 43% of women voted G.O.P.)
    87% of all Jews
    (only 12% of the Jewish vote went GOP)

    Which of these groups is most hated by people commenting here ?

  • 31. stevo-never-banned  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 9:46 am

    Keefer,
    Only a overweight fat boy like yourself would call Cleland an idiot. Its funny, he is in a wheelchair and in better shape then you.

    did ya ever get the CCW?

    lolol!

  • 32. stevo-never-banned  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 9:49 am

    Hey Mark,
    How long did you live in sin with your current wife before you married her?
    Public records are a bitch aren’t they?

    You preach about morality, not living a lie, etc.

    *tsk*

    *sits back and laughs while Mark fervently deletes my posts*

  • 33. stevo-never-banned  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 9:51 am

    Speaking of morality, etc.

    Does your supervisor know you access your blog and manage it on company time…..

    *flips through company handbook*

    Oh noe’s I don’t think managing a blog on company time is allowed.

    *picks up phone to call HR*

    ;)

  • 34. Huck Fillary  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm

    Look, stevomoron’s back, spewing his lies. I never applied for a CCW permit, yet this pussy claims I did.

    If you’re so smart, stevoretard, then what’s my full name. And what’s your address in Pigd*ck, VA? Maybe we can meet up, and you can show me how brave you are.

    Disclaimer: By stating “we can meet up,” I was in no way, shape or form threatening stevodickweed. You see, stevo claims to carry a weapon, and since I don’t, I wouldn’t want to chance it. stevo’s a puss who can’t go anywhere without his gun. Probably his only manhood.

    What say you, stevotinypecker?

  • 35. David Aulds  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 4:41 pm

    I predict Fred Thompson will come in second or very close to 2nd place tonight. He has had a very good last 3 weeks to a month and has finished out the bus trip trip very strong. His ground game has been excellant and the crowds coming out have been larger and more excited about his messege. Fred Thompson will surprise tonight BOOK IT!!!

  • 36. Kahn  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 5:33 pm

    yep, drive by steve.

  • 37. FmrMarine  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 5:53 pm

    WHO CARES ?
    IT IS MEANINGLESS !!!

    It counts for……..
    ZERO, ZIP, ZILCH, NADA !

    ZERO delegates, it is a “STRAW…….POLL!!
    NOT a VOTE.

    a made for media “horserace”

    the whole concept of a P!$$ ant state, starting with a NON vote, kicking off the Presidential primary season with an opinion fest, in the 21 st century is ridiculous.

  • 38. FmrMarine  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 5:57 pm

    other than my rant
    I pick Fred to place second.

    couldn’t resist…Damn

  • 39. Judith Hofbauer  |  January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm

    If Osama Obama comes in first, and eventually wins the Donks nomination, who among us has a chance to beat him? After all, he speaks so well and has soooooo many new ideas (recycled from the 60’s). God, what has this country come to? We need all the worldly experience we can get in a candidate. BTW, Osama can scream come together all he wants but don’t include me in, after all the Demo filth thrown at W.

  • 40. Thrower  |  January 4th, 2008 at 2:19 am

    Nice going Stevo. You once again brought out the beast in Keefer. I’ve been hiding under my bed since his last threat to wreak vengeance on “troll pukes” figuring I was one of them. If there’s anything left of you, he might come out to the left coast in search of me.

  • 41. Huck Fillary  |  January 4th, 2008 at 4:25 am

    Note that whenever stevotinypecker shows up, so does his boyfriend, sleazygene.

    Hmmm…


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