What Does Iowa Mean?
Tags: abortion, Clinton, Democrats, Edwards, gay marriage, Gore, Hillary, Mike Huckabee, Morality, poll, Polls.
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First and foremost, it is a day all Americans can be proud of – a black American won a caucus in a mostly-white State, indicating that whatever racism remains in America, it is vestigal and of no great consequence. Race-baiters like Jackson and Sharpton will still shout “racism” at the drop of the hat, but America has largely gotten past race as an issue. Obama won in Iowa because a plurality of Democrats believed he will be the best man to recapture the White House – and the fact that he is black, as far as I can determine, made no difference at all…and in the measuring of the man against other Democrats and prospective GOP opponents, his chances are not predicated (plus or minus) on account of his race.
Second, while Hillary polls well nationally among Democrats, when faced with the true-blue, dyed-in-the-wool Democrats who attend caucuses, it has been demonstrated that Hillary Clinton lacks that magnetism which pulled Democrats over to Bill Clinton time and time again. This doesn’t mean she can’t get nominated, but it does demonstrate that all the talk of an inevitible Hillary nomination was just so much gas from people who, apparantly, haven’t bothered to check with rank-and-file Democrats about how they feel about her.
Third, to say the GOP race is wide-open is to understate the unsettled nature of GOP politics. GOP rank-and-file are looking for someone who can lead them to victory in 2008, and they are unsure whom it will be – except among Evangelical Christians, who have fallen rock-solid behind Mike Huckabee (word is that Evangelical participation in Iowa was double that of 2000). This doesn’t mean that Huckabee will now cruise to the nomination (Evangelicals are a major part of the GOP coalition, but they aren’t a majority of GOP voters), but it does mean that Huckabee is someone who can’t be easily dismissed – and, also, that whomever the GOP nominates will have to pay close attention to the issues dearest to Evangelical Christians (abortion, gay marriage, defense of Christian morality, etc.).
How this will all play out in the upcoming primaries and caucuses is anyone’s guess – will Edwards voters gravitate to Obama, or to Hillary? If Hillary continues to fall, will there be a late-arriving Gore in the Democratic race? Will a Romney win in NH really help him that much? Is Giuliani’s plan of winning late still viable? To al these and a score other questions I answer: I dunno.
Thank you for visiting Blogs For Victory. If you enjoy our content, please consider making a donation to help us cover the costs of our servers.Mark Noonan is co-author (with Matt Margolis) of Caucus of Corruption: The Truth About The New Democratic Majority. He also blogs at Nevada News and Views. Follow Mark on Twitter.
91 Responses to “What Does Iowa Mean?”
Caucus of Corruption
No. I had been leaning towards Romney until recently. I didn’t like his attack ads and anyone that is willing and capable of spending tens of millions of dollars to achieve power; shouldn’t have power.
So who, of the Republican candidates (other than ron paul) do you think will be able to bring about change?
To the average hardworking taxpaying American I ask:
A) Is resolving and ending the war in Iraq, the economy, transparency in our government, and climate change important?
B) Or is abortion, gay marriage, and endless war important?
neoconL
Turnout was also up on the Republican side, where projections showed about 114,000 people taking part. The last contested Republican caucuses in 2000 drew 87,666 in caucuses won by then-Gov. George W. Bush.
However…
The Repubs went from 87,000 to about 115,000. An increase of 28k or about 32%
The Dems went from 59,000 to about 236,000. An increase of 177k or roughly 300%.
I’m going with the Dems getting the better of that deal, but you can go on and be happy with that increase on the Repub side.
You don’t say…
The evangelical right wing GOP bigots put the final nail in Romney’s coffin.
The Iowa results are just a confirmation of what has been predicted for awhile now. Democrats are pretty psyched about thier candidates, and especially this new fellow, Obama. The republicans aren’t so happy about their guys and that the three branches of the Reagan coalition, socons hawks & fiscals do not have anyone to rally around. A side note about the repubs is that Huckleberry’s victory is the result of the fundis on the right tiring of being used by the party. I assume they know Gomer can’t win but he is one of them and their party will have to listen to them in the future or they will continue to slpinter the gop. I could be wrong but this seems patently obvious.
Did anyone see ElRushbo on Fox last night he looked like he just swallowed a turd. It was priceless.
[...] What Does Iowa Mean? [...]
[...] What Does Iowa Mean? [...]
LiberalT,
8 times more likely? That sounds like a made-up stat…you’re trying to tell me that after a jury convicts a man of murder, that judge/jury will be 8 times more likely to sentence a black man to life in prison than a white man. Does that sound stupid? It should, because it is. You might want to check your source.
As for disparate impact – what BJS stats show is that our justice system is horribly sexist, as 82% of the people sent to jail for a felony conviction are male…and we all know that if there wasn’t any sexism involved, then it’d be about 50/50…and don’t try and bring up the numbers of men and women who commit felony offenses! Thats not fair!
Gene,
GOP turnout in Iowa was up over 2000 and 2004. So as for your theory: not based on fact.
Nice try – but do attempt to assess facts in the future, ok?
*Shrugs*
I’ll fully agree that as of now the GOP base isn’t “energized.” We’ve got almost twice as many “top tier” canidates after all with quite different opinions and views. So we’ve got a bunch of choices and splits going on right now and I’m fine with that. All these early primaries can help weed out our canidates and hopefully give us someone worth getting excited about.
Hmm… what’s this SteaM?
“To the average hardworking taxpaying American I ask:
A) Is resolving and ending the war in Iraq, the economy, transparency in our government, and climate change important?
B) Or is abortion, gay marriage, and endless war important?”
Okay besides the fact that is a poorly designed question I’ll answer it since I’m an average taxpayer. :)
Sure, resolving the war in Iraq is a good thing, though how we want to resolve it is probably different than how you would.
The economy is going along fine and the number one thing the government can do is get the FRACK out of the way! Stop putting up stupid road blocks and inane rules and laws in the way. Unfortunetly I can’t name a single canidate who’d do that. *Sigh*
Transparancy in government? You honestly want to know every single thing the government is doing all the time? I’m pretty sure most of it is quite dull and wasteful. Hmm…. well sure then! I’d love more people knowing all the crap we’re spending money on. :)
Climage Change? Don’t get me started there. I can’t think of a single canidate who’d do something HELPFUL for any future climate change. Everything I’ve heard is inane, reactionary, or just plain stupid that’d screw us over big time.
Abortion IS a big deal. You complain about “endless war” yet you have no problem with the senseless killing of babies? While I’m not the biggest Pro Lifer here (Not by any stretch of the imagination) it’s a big deal to a lot of people. Though I hate that it’s a “single Issue” for a lot of folks. (I’m more Gun Control than Abortion when it comes to the “Single Issue” votes)
Gay marriage? *Shrugs* I could care less really. Personally I think all pairings should be “Civil Unions” as far as the government is concerned. Marriage is a religious thing and should stay there.
As for “Endless War” you do realize this is the human race you’re talking about right? Even if we were to remove every single soldier from our army, or never leave our shores there’d be war going on.
So I’ve got a different question for you SteaM:
“Name the top five issues that are important to you.”
See? An open and unbiased question. :)
Mine? In no particular Order:
Gun control
Taxes
Military Spending (Seperate than the war directly)
Terrorism
Internet Neutrality
Those are my top five.
Here are some facts Mark. Obama beat Huck 24.5% to 11.4%, regardless of an increase of Republican turnout. Now if one were to extrapolate those numbers to a national election I think even you would have a monumental spin job to undertake.
As I was watching Obama speak after the event was over I could not help but think about RFK. This impression has been mirrored through out the day by various talking heads both on TV and on line. Now don’t jump to conclusions here. I am not stating a personal preference for a particular candidate. I am merely relaying a brain cloud that I observed. It is interesting to note that Huckabee represents a sort of Frankenstein monster that Rove created by exploiting evangelicals in order to try to gain a one party rule. Hense folks like Rush and Faux Noise and the NRO completely flipping out about Hucks coming out ahead of Romney.
Obama connects with people. Like RFK.He creates passion. Like RFK. But more importantly he offers change. A diametrically opposed point of view to what America has had to endure for the past 8 years.
You have opined for years about how favorably GWB will be viewed by history. I think what we are watching unfold is a complete and total rejection of what Cheney/Bush has wrought.
Who do you support Mark? Huck? Romney? Thompson? Or god forbid Ron Paul.
The choices offered by the GOP are comparable to death by hanging, poison or being eaten alive by sharks.
-JHL
Umm… you’re extraplating percentages of a 3 way race and a five way race? Okay… enjoy.
Gozer? I like the Carpathian reference.
Here are my main concerns.
The end of the idea of a unilateral executive and subsequent imperial presidency suggested and undertaken by Nixon and inacted by Cheney almost 40 years later.
The inprisonment of Dick Cheney.
GWB having to be in the same hospital room as Brittany Spears. Along with her pregnant 16 year old church going sister.
Their parents having to explain.
Global Climate Change. (It’s real.)
A massive reduction on oil dependence. (Think about how many problems that would solve!)
I am pro-choice and I eat meat so abortion is not an issue with me. Nor are gays as long as they leave me alone.
Christianists to stop thinking that the end is near and getting in our collective faces about their religion and trying to legislate their particular beliefs.
And finally, a chicken in every pot and 3 electric cars that go from zero to 60 in 4 seconds in every garage.
Oh yeah, I forgot. Grass highways with magnets buried under ground for the cars to run on.
No more asphault.
I hate asphault.
*Chuckles*
Thank you, it’s funny how I ended up being Gozer the Carpathian. :)
I never said Global Climate change wasn’t real. My concern is that reducing “Carbon emissions” and such will do jack about it. I’d much rather see more plans on how to continue to live in a changing climate.
I’m all for reducing our dependance on oil. You’ll get no argument from me on the shift from it, in the mean time though do you have a problem with us reducing the costs to the consumers by getting our own bloody oil? I mean seriously the shipping costs alone are insane, plus all the different fuel formulas (I believe there are 26 different ones in the US) for the states.
What does being a meat eater (as am I) have to do with abortion? Just trying to figure out where you’re coming from there.
Can you do the same for the Athiests and Muslims then please? I’m none of those religions and would love to stop having them force me into giving them special attention or dispensation. One law of the land and all that.
*Chuckles*
I’d love an electric car like that. Though can I have an electric motorcycle instead of one of the cars? Also, can they be bigger than bread boxes? I HATE small cars. (I don’t fit in them for one. :p )
I’m with you on the asphault. It hurts. :D
“The People in this country are supposed to have a say in their representative government and I think last night the People spoke.” SteaM
250,000 dems caucus giving the winner less than 100,000 votes in a state with a population of 3,000,000.
So with a tunout of less than 1% of the state you think the COUNTRY has spoken. You are delusional. It’s the voices in your head that you are hearing, not the people of this country.
Oil is the biggest problem that modern humanity faces. It is a limited resource and as such one that is fought over. I’d be willing to bet that very few of the posters here even know from whence it came. (Seeing how they deny evolution and the age of the earth and all. If they were to admitt that it is the result of millions of years of organic material being buried by the changing geology of the palnet earth that would undermine their religious point of view.)
BUT: I could be wrong and if I am I appolgize.
As far as global climate change, human activity and especially the burning of oil or oil by-products is a contributing factor.
For anyone who has ever taken a class in geology or earth science or any other related course in the development of human civilization the 1st issue that is taught is that sedintary societies were given the encubation to develop because of a stable enviroment that had lasted for ~ 10K years. We could count on the seasons. The rain, the sun and we were able to exploit agriculture as a result. But now, 10,000 years later our energy needs are so great that in the burning of this elixer (oil) has the potential to radically alter our evolutionary development both physically and culturally.
As far as abortion my position is this. Either life is sacred or it is not. To me it is hypocritical to claim that human life is somehow superior to other creatures and if it is, then don’t eat them.(Cows, pigs, shrimp, lambs, chickens etc.) If it is equal then we all play god. Personally I don’t think that a 2 month old fetus is a conscoius, feeling,upright walking,fully developed human and I have no problem with a womens right to chose. It’s her body, not yours and as an incubator she has the 1st call. Rape? Incest? Malforemation?
And yes, you can have the motorcycle. You can have 5!!!
How’s that??
French Student,
The good think about your system is the limited time for campaigns, as opposed to ours which seem like they go on forever.
The bad thing is that the method of election funding by the government, unfairly favors the incumbent. Since the funds are apportioned according to the number of votes which the parties won in the previous election. This favors a status quo.
-JHL
An interesting view on abortion and one you back up at least with the rest of your view. Too many folks supporting ideas is more of the lines of “Just cause.” :)
Now your veiw just begs the question though: if man is no better than animals, and it’s okay to kill animals, is it okay to kill men? As you say it’s hypocritical to claim that human life is somehow superior to other life, than a fully walking, breathing, and eating cow can be killed so can you or I correct? No repurcussions?
I shall bypass your nice parenthesis comment since it didn’t seem aimed at me. :)
You’re right, oil seems to be a finite resource. As is Iron, Coal, Silicon, water, gold, heck pretty much everything. I mean there is only so much of EVERYTHING now isn’t there?
What I’m not seeing is this “contributing factor” thing you’re saying here. I mean in our recorded history we’ve seen major climate change, and it was before we were burning oil regularly. How do you explain the “Mini Ice age?” I mean we used to grow grapes in England after all, and north Africa used to be the breadbasket of Rome. Not so much anymore and I think you’ll agree we weren’t oil dependant back then.
For me, knowing the earth changes is a major thing to acknowledge. All fine and good, but just reducing carbon emitions isn’t preparing us for any major climate change. That’s my point, what are we doing to prepare for this change WHEN it occurs? (Be it in 10 years as Algore says or in 1000.)
Cool beans on the motorcycle, but you didn’t mention my Electric SUV. :D
JHL,
So a human life is worth the same a the life of an ant? The same worth as a mosquito?
And here maybe an interesting read for you JHL.
http://www.climatecooling.org/
I am sure others have stumbled on this before me, but I thought it was interesting.
And for just a random grouping of complex cells, you sure seem to think you have everything figured out.
mark mark mark
go look it up – its a true statistic. It is from the department of justice of the united states of america no less. I know I know – one vote in Iowa proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that racism is only vesitgual in the US. Oh christ – give me a break…
Yeah, I have figured out most everything Neocon.
But to respond to my new BBF Gozer the evolutionary development of life on this planet has been that mankind; humanity; was for the most part of our development subject to the uncontrolable forces of the enviroment in which we lived. We lived on the savanah. We lived in trees. We lived in caves. Large preditors ate us. But then our brain size enabled us to out smart the enviroment and the creatures that meant to do us harm. Until now when we do harm to each other.
Neocon asked if a human life is worth more than tha of an ant. Well, not to the ant!
The point is god is a human invention, whether a higher being exists or not. There is no way to prove or disprove this point of contention but to me abortion is as much a function of human behavior as is politics but to mix morality with civil rights is an explosive combination.
Just look what has been started here on this thread.
And, oh by the way. Look in your garage!!!
Neocon:
Everything in existance is made of atoms, so everything is equal.
What made the atoms?
which ones neocon? the heavy elements you see around you were made in the sun the light elements were made in the big bang (as far as we know)..True – we don’t know what caused the big bang.
Who made god? Oh right – if someone 5000 years ago writes down in a book that God just is – then it must be so. How could I be so stupid…
So you don’t know what caused the big bang? So, in effect you’re saying that you don’t know the origin of life, right?
um – the two are different things. The origin of the universe and the origin of life are not necessarily (and almost certainly are not) the same thing. Do we “know” – of course not – but we have many experiments and models which point to the best scientific explanation we have of the origin of the universe- the big bang. And the origin of life .
Such as..
1. Plausible pre-biotic conditions result in the creation of certain basic small molecules (monomers) of life, such as amino acids. This was demonstrated in the Miller-Urey experiment by Stanley L. Miller and Harold C. Urey in 1953.
2. Phospholipids (of an appropriate length) can spontaneously form lipid bilayers, a basic component of the cell membrane.
3. The polymerization of nucleotides into random RNA molecules might have resulted in self-replicating ribozymes (RNA world hypothesis).
4. Selection pressures for catalytic efficiency and diversity result in ribozymes which catalyse peptidyl transfer (hence formation of small proteins), since oligopeptides complex with RNA to form better catalysts. Thus the first ribosome is born, and protein synthesis becomes more prevalent.
5. Proteins outcompete ribozymes in catalytic ability, and therefore become the dominant biopolymer. Nucleic acids are restricted to predominantly genomic use.
Can I say that with absolute 100% certainty – of course not – but you can’t say that about anything in science.
*Chuckles*
Well I hope I’m not your BF like on Animaniacs. :)
You kinda side-stepped my question though. Does your belief/theory mean you think it’s just normal and okay for us to kill a human as we would an animal? Say I get out my rifle and go human hunting is that okay?
Okay Liberal I have to say it before someone else does….
Since you can’t say anything in science can be taken with 100% certainty doesn’t that mean you have to take a bit of it on faith? Belief? The word of others?
Sure some dead man wrote down the words 5000 years ago does that mean they’re worthless? Can you prove with 100% certainty that none of what was written occured?
(Sorry but it was obvious and had to be said)
I’m going to guess that neocon, Mark, and anyone else that is arguing with LiberalT about racism has a) no friends that are black, and b) probably lives in an area that is very much absent of blacks (i.e. Suburbia). If any of these were not the case then they would know they are full of BS. All you have to do is ask any black man and they can easily list all of the incidences of racism they have experienced on one hand and much more. At least this has been the case in my experience- I grew up in East Oakland California so ALL of my friends were/are black. If there is one thing that perpetuates racism it is denying that it does not exist. I now live in Kansas and I can’t go anywhere is this God forsaken state without hearing the N word or seeing it scratched into some bathroom wall. If these things have escaped you then you obviously live a life secluded from minorities. And it isn’t just blacks either, hispanics are also largely attacked here and I place much of that on anti-immigrant red neck conservatives. If you really want to start towards the end of racism then we need to start addressing it openly and honestly and stop worry about hurting each others feelings and being PC.
–
Since you can?t say anything in science can be taken with 100% certainty doesn?t that mean you have to take a bit of it on faith? Belief? The word of others?
—
no – not at all it means that your beliefs are not dogmatic. It means that you take it to be a working explanation – the best we currently have but always looking for new evidence, new ideas, to replace our current (and always) imperfect knowledge of the world.
—
Sure some dead man wrote down the words 5000 years ago does that mean they?re worthless? Can you prove with 100% certainty that none of what was written occurred?
—
of course not. Nothing is a matter of 100% certainty – its a matter of degree of probability. It is of course possible – but you take it as the evidence as it is a 5000 year old document that has a lot of crazy things in it. For me fossil evidence , carbon dating, and the rest of the collected knowledge of thousands of people over hundreds of years holds a lot more weight…
LiberalT,
I did look it up and I couldn’t find any such stat. As I said, it sounds like a made-up stat, like that one Bill Clinton used to throw around about how many kids are killed each day by guns…
Uncommon,
Yeah, you got that right – lilly white here…’cept for my next door neighbors…’course, all my friends are white…’cept for the ones which are black, hispanic, Arab, Jewish and varied mixed races…
JHL,
I can see the Bobby Kennedy comparison – except that Bobby Kennedy had actually done something in his life, unlike Obama.
Watching Obama last night I was disheartened by how entirely cliche’d he is. There wasn’t an original thought or a bold proposal – just psuedo-intellectual mush; which is why it impressed you, I guess.
And as for your weird math – President Bush got 24% of all Iowa caucus votes in 2000, Gore got 26%. I know that lefties are out there trying to make it seem that 300,000 people have decided the 2008 campaign, but it just ain’t so.
libT,
I’ll ask again, since you don’t want to answer. What precipitated the big bang?
The fact is you don’t know and neither does anyone else. Therefore, what Gozer said is correct, you have to have a little faith.
So then why do you feel comfortable ridiculing a belief system of others that you disagree with on a subject that we are all not 100% certain of? That’s would be called prejudice libT.
Big Bang was caused by the collapse of the previous universe.
The universe expands after the Big Bang, then the expansion slows to a stop, and gravitation forces causes the contraction of the universe that continually shrinks with building speed. Eventually, all matter is collides at a focal point which causes another Big Bag.
Christian,
Who, or what, created the previous universe.
I am really enjoying watching the atheist liberals try to explain all of this.
What does it mean?
It means that a state that is not representative of the whole US population chose who they would like their candidates to be for President…
It is absolutely baffling that such a small and atypical state should have that much of an effect on the selection of Presidential nominees… There is no reason why Iowa should be more important than Georgia, Texas, New York, California, or any of the multitude of other states that don’t get nearly the attention that a bunch of corn farmers in Iowa receive…
“So you don’t know what caused the big bang? So, in effect you’re saying that you don’t know the origin of life, right?”
Nope, but you don’t know either. You know, I believe in God. I always have. But I’ve never felt that I should tell other people what they should believe in.
And I’ve always felt that science is completely compatable with faith.
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