McCain Also Surges in New Hampshire?
January 6th, 2008 at 02:44am Mark Noonan
Rasmussen says so:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney by five percentage points. It’s McCain 31% Romney 26%. The survey was conducted Friday night, the night following the Iowa caucuses. As noted yesterday on Rasmussen Reports, McCain was one of the big winners on Thursday in Iowa. The current poll is a reversal from a pre-Christmas survey when Romney had a slight advantage.
Ron Paul earns 14% of the vote and Mike Huckabee gets 11% as the only other candidates in double digits. Rudy Giuliani attracts 8% of the vote, Fred Thompson 5%, some other candidate 2%, and 3% are not sure.
If this is correct, then Romney is heading for a very rough patch in his quest for the White House - losing New Hampshire would be a blow tough for Romney to recover from. The only bright spot for Romney if he comes in second is that the GOP race is still so unsettled that even if he flops several times, there is still a chance of pulling it off - if nothing else, at a brokered GOP convention (something I put down as just a bit less than a 50/50 probability at this moment - for the Democrats, its about 70/30 against). Bottom line - the nature of the GOP contest in 2008 (and, to a lesser extent, the Democratic contest) is that there’s no reason for anyone who comes in second or third to back out. While its not likely, there is even a chance that in the first five contests, the GOP will wind up with five different winners.
The GOP contest is wide open because none of the top-tier candidates have been able to take the mantle of Ronald Reagan - in other words, the Reagan coalition is waiting for a leader, but none of the GOP candidates has yet to seal the deal. The Democratic contest is less wide open, but the Democratic primary voters might be in a mood to really punish anyone who isn’t devoutly anti-Bush in word and deed. Still, there is no reason for any of the top three Democrats to pull out - Hillary because she’s got bag of money to keep it going, while Obama and Edwards circle each other, wondering how the kook left will settle out as time goes on.
Entry Filed under: Congress, Democrats, Republicans
15 Comments
1. Faceplant | January 6th, 2008 at 5:57 am
“The GOP contest is wide open because none of the top-tier candidates have been able to take the mantle of Ronald Reagan - in other words, the Reagan coalition is waiting for a leader, but none of the GOP candidates has yet to seal the deal.”
Or maybe the rest of the country doesn’t care who is is most like Reagan?
2. FmrMarine | January 6th, 2008 at 7:41 am
What has happened to Fred?
why is he being totally ignored by the drive by media?
Can he pull it out?
3. plainjane | January 6th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Why wouldn’t McCain surge. It is mostly the 29%ers voting in the primaries and they still worship the child king President Bush. McCain has accepted the scepter and is in lock step with the Necons on every major issue. Would be interesting as to how his pro war and pro immigration views would play in the general election.
4. Huck Fillary | January 6th, 2008 at 8:41 am
At least the cow is capitalizing “Neocon.”
I guess she’s trying to convince us that she knows what a neocon is.
Still a dumb cow, even after the holidays, plainjane? Guess you didn’t find yourself a man, or a woman, yet. Keep trying, Elsie. Moo!!!
5. Capitalist Infidel | January 6th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Actually Romney won Wyoming last night and they have more delegates than New Hampshire.
6. neocon | January 6th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Jane,
How do you suppose the evangelical Obama with a Muslim heritage and a desire to invade Pakistan will play in the general?
7. FmrMarine | January 6th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Neocon
lets see if the drive by’s reveal this and see how it plays?
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8. phnx | January 6th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Looking at how this is playing out I am reconsidering McCain again, although I still support Romney. I still have big reservations about McCain on taxation & immigration, as well as his age. At 70 he is the oldest candidate (at 45 Obama is the youngest).
Obama is charastmatic, and he will draw a lot of young idealistic votes, but McCain has the ‘gravitas’ necessary to confront today’s world. given the choice, I doubt most Americans will trust the security of the country to such an idealisitc, inexperiences, unproven, socialist like Obama.
Perhaps a McCain/Romney or McCain/Guliani ticket would be a good choice.
BTW, I’m expecting Hillary (or her attack dogs) to go real negative real soon.
9. phil | January 6th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
What a horrible debate performance by Mitt! As expected, Thompson was comically bad, Giuliani was bumblingly evasive, Paul seemed like he was on loan to the Republicans from another planet, but Mitt, well…he was awful, by far the worst in the field. I thought he was supposed to be a statesman, tested, cool under fire. Last night he was shrill, defensive, panicked. His opponents, sensing blood in the water, went for the kill which, given Mitt’s limp wristed defense, turned out to be surprisingly easy. When pressured, one would have expected Mitt to react with pressure of his own, coolly returning fire. Instead Mitt was petulant, his poorly reasoned responses mostly consisting of whiny requests for his opponents to stop picking on him. Instead of a statesman, Mitt seemed more like a petulant teenager, his performance resembling what one might have expected from a 13 year old girl. This is a guy we’re expecting as president to go eye to eye with foreign leaders? It wasn’t even that nasty, and poor Mitt folded, collapsed. You can’t tell me that he was ill-prepared; Mitt’s nothing if not thorough. But under light flogging from McCain and Giuliani Mitt was worse even than that bumbling nincompoop Bush. Everyone’s familiar with Mitt’s penchant for lying and with his ethical handicaps. But it seems that some Republicans were willing to look past that based on their expectations that Mitt was tried, tested, intelligent, a professional. But that façade was cruelly punctured last night as Mitt, under light pressure, folded like a cheap tent. I’m not sure what else was learned from last nights debate, but one thing is glaringly apparent, and that if that Mitt is tragically unsuited for the job of president. One hopes that the people of New Hampshire bestow upon Mitt the electoral thumping he so richly deserves.
Have a great day!
Phil
10. Huck Fillary | January 6th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I listened to Huckabee on Hannity’s show on Friday, and McCain on C-Span yesterday. I’ve a new-found respect for them both, although their conservative credentials are lacking. Either would be infinitely better than any of the Donkaroaches in the mix…
11. Casper | January 6th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I would consider either McCain or Huckabee, especially if Clinton gets the Democratic bid.
12. Huck Fillary | January 7th, 2008 at 4:45 am
I didnt hear any of you guys crying when we gave the Cubans (and still do) amnesty.
Different situation, Brett–the Cubans are fleeing Castro, while the illegals are coming here without the threat of oppression by their government.
What really bothers me about the Cubans is that if they don’t reach dry land, they’re sent back.
Brett, have you ever been to an inner-city? There are people who’ve lived there all their lives, and they can’t speak English, either.
Brett, have you been blogging here long? There are many posters here who’ve been educated in our public schools, yet they still can’t write.
What’s your point, Brett? Troll…
13. Eric T | January 7th, 2008 at 9:36 am
I hope Mitt can get it together and smackdown McCain. I wanna see Huck and Mitt win. N.H is a good state for Mitt to win. The GOP ain’t going to win putting out geezers like Rudy, McCain, and Fred. These guys ain’t going to be able to go 1 round with Obama. We need some guys that ain’t 1000 years old up there fighting.
14. Eric T | January 7th, 2008 at 10:15 am
N.H is a good state for Ron Paul. I’d rather see him win than McAmnesty.
15. Connecting News, Commenta&hellip | February 1st, 2008 at 10:31 pm
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