Open Thread: Nevada Caucus, South Carolina Primary
January 19th, 2008 at 08:54am Mark Noonan
Who do you think will come out on top? Why? Freely discuss all issues relating to these two events, and the larger Presidential contest.
UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Mark has called to give me an update… he says the Republican caucus he’s at is packed.
UPDATE, by Matt Margolis, 1 PM ET:
Mark has called with more information. He’s telling me that the Romney campaign was out in full force, and he has the numbers from his precinct:
Precinct 2457:
Romney 17
Mccain 9
Thompson 7
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
Hunter 1
And Mark’s father was selected as a delegate for the county convention in March, and Mark is an alternate.
The Associated Press has projected Mitt Romney as the winner.
UPDATE: Romney claims victory in Nevada.
UPDATE: Clintons preparing for a Nevada loss? Politico quotes Bill:
Today when my daughter and I were wandering through the hotel, and all these culinary workers were mobbing us telling us they didn’t care what the union told them to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary.
There was a representative of the organization following along behind us going up to everybody who said that, saying ‘if you’re not gonna vote for our guy were gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can’t be there.’ So, is this the new politics? I haven’t seen anything like that in America in 35 years. So I will say it again – they think they’re better than you.
But Drudge says with a bit less than 5% in, its Hillary 50%, Obama 42%.
UPDATE: CNN and Fox call Nevada for Hillary
UPDATE: McCain wins South Carolina. And, still, the GOP race is pretty open. But, then again, so is the Democratic race - while Hillary won the most votes in Nevada, Obama won the most delegates (someone will have to explain that to me…). Curious thing about Nevada? Turnout. 44,315 GOPers showed up to vote, but only 10,529 Democrats - the State is about equally divided between Democrats and Republicans as far as voter registration. There should have been more Democratic voters - I’d like to know what kept them from the polls on a beautiful Saturday.
UPDATE: Kossacks upset over the Hillary win.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
21 Comments
1. LaMano | January 19th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Biggest influencers:
1. Weather
2. Late Fred surge
The problem is the Fred surge may come from Huck. McCain needs a knockout punch but probably won’t happen. Will be interesting.
2. Brian | January 19th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Romney has the uncanny ability to win in states where the other Republican candidates aren’t competing….and where the media isn’t paying attention.
3. Mark Noonan | January 19th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
LeMano,
Gorgeous winter weather out here in Nevada - sunny and about 50 degrees…turnout seems to be running high around the State. While Romney cleary has it, I’m waiting to see the breakdown of the GOP vote out here…we should start seeing some Democrat results in about an hour.
4. Brian | January 19th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Clinton wins….
Guess having those polling sites at the casinos weren’t such a bad idea after all, eh, Hillary?
5. Magnum Serpentine | January 19th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Oh my God. Clinton won. If she should get the nomination I might just vote for any republican, except huck or Thompson
I hope Obama can pull off a miracle.
6. Gozer the Carpathian | January 19th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
I wouldn’t count Obama out yet Magnum. There’s still plenty of races left. Make a call after Super Tuesday though. :)
This’ll be interesting as to where things are going. I can’t wait to hear Mark’s first hand reports on the caucuss since I’ve never been to one. I wonder what it’s like…
7. FmrMarine | January 19th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
# 5. says “I hope Obama can pull off a miracle.”
You have to be kidding!!!
You want a guy who is an ACTIVE member of a “church” like this to be President?
His OWN MOTHER could not attend this CULT, as it has black only membership, and ties t the nation of islam!
Trinity United Church of Christ
About Us
We are a congregation which is Unashamedly Black and Unapologetically Christian… Our roots in the Black religious experience and tradition are deep, lasting and permanent. We are an African people, and remain “true to our native land,” the mother continent, the cradle of civilization. God has superintended our pilgrimage through the days of slavery, the days of segregation, and the long night of racism. It is God who gives us the strength and courage to continuously address injustice as a people, and as a congregation. We constantly affirm our trust in God through cultural expression of a Black worship service and ministries which address the Black Community.
Trinity United Church of Christ adopted the Black Value System written by the Manford Byrd Recognition Committee chaired by Vallmer Jordan in 1981. We believe in the following 12 precepts and covenantal statements. These Black Ethics must be taught and exemplified in homes, churches, nurseries and schools, wherever Blacks are gathered. They must reflect on the following concepts:
1. Commitment to God
2. Commitment to the Black Community
3. Commitment to the Black Family
4. Dedication to the Pursuit of Education
5. Dedication to the Pursuit of Excellence
6. Adherence to the Black Work Ethic
7. Commitment to Self-Discipline and Self-Respect
8. Disavowal of the Pursuit of “Middleclassness”
9. Pledge to make the fruits of all developing and acquired skills available to the Black Community
10. Pledge to Allocate Regularly, a Portion of Personal Resources for Strengthening and Supporting Black Institutions
11. Pledge allegiance to all Black leadership who espouse and embrace the Black Value System
12. Personal commitment to embracement of the Black Value System.
8. Brian | January 19th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
8. Disavowal of the Pursuit of “Middleclassness”
So let me see if I understand this one…..they discourage blacks from achieving social mobility? I’m surprised they don’t call themselves the United Church of Al Sharpton.
9. Brian | January 19th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
McCain wins SC.
Limbaugh and Hannity on suicide watch.
10. Casper | January 19th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Interesting, Obama picked up one more delegate than Clinton did in Nevada.
11. Kahn | January 19th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Ann Coulter convinced me. I’m voting for Romney.
12. Brian | January 19th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Then I guess it doesn’t take much to convince you.
13. Mark Noonan | January 20th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Gozer,
Pretty haphazard - especially as this if our first time doing this here in Nevada. The Romney people were out in force and seemed to have the best information on the rules - I volunteered to be precinct secretary and was appointed by unanimous consent, while a Romney guy got the same to be precinct chairman.
There was a bit of confusion in the rules - were people supposed to give speeches as to why they should be delegates to the upcoming county convention, or were people to give speeches in favor of a candidate? Given that there was no dispute on delegates (our precinct is allotted five delegates to the county convention and all five were appointed unanimously), the decision came out in favor of making speeches for the candidates.
The Romney guy gave his pitch, I gave the Thompson pitch, a retired Air Force officer gave the McCain pitch, a school teacher gave the Huckabee pitch, a housewife gave the Paul pitch. We then voted and sent our tally up to the GOP office for tabulation.
14. Gozer the Carpathian | January 20th, 2008 at 1:18 am
Huh.. that’s just wierd. So you guys didn’t have a ballot box or anything like a primary. Just a bunch of folks in a voting area in a room talking? Head counts? Things like that?
Wierd….
So this is the first time Nevada every had a Caucus? Weren’t they always primaries before hand? How early did it end because it was like 2:30 PM and I was hearing it called for Romney. I was like, “Hey shouldn’t polls still be open, I’m at the same time as Nevada after all.”
Wierder and wierder…
My turn soon. California hs moved up as well so we get our primary soon and it looks like it will matter who we vote for more than ever! O.O
15. Mark Noonan | January 20th, 2008 at 1:37 am
Gozer,
Yep, that was pretty much it - we were finished in our precinct at around 10am. I can’t imagine any GOP part of this thing taking past 11am…pretty quick and easy, as long as no one makes a fuss.
16. keefer | January 20th, 2008 at 7:58 am
I hope Obama can pull off a miracle.
Well, Mag, Obama’s all about “hope” and “change.” Have faith…
17. Kahn | January 20th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Brian, well - thanks for confirming it.
18. keefer | January 20th, 2008 at 8:23 am
While I can’t condone the tactics employed by Earbama supporters, I find it ironic that Hitlery sends her number one surrogate, Slicky, out there to whine.
Kahn, I’m gonna support whomever wins the GOP nomination, although I’ll find it difficult to get behind either McCain or Huckabee. Alas, I live in MD, a one-party state well on its way to becoming another Illinois, when it comes to politics.
May can’t get here soon enough for me…
19. kjstrouble | January 20th, 2008 at 9:11 am
I would love to see the link to this “Church” Obama supposedly belongs to. As well as the links showing he is a member. I do not support him, and am affraid that if he were to win the nomination, people would flock to him the way they did to JFK, with more devastating results.
The only GOP canidate I will have a hard time supporting is Huckabee. My personal choice is Thompson, but McCain or Romney will do if chosen. The amazing thing, is given the way things are going now, my vote in the May Nebraska primary might actually count. It will be interesting to hear about the negotiating that will be going on at this years GOP convention.
20. Doug | January 20th, 2008 at 11:06 am
I wonder how many of the South Carolina Fredheads or Mitt supporters are kicking themselves now. On this thread we always hear how McCain is their last choice, and to think that if a few thousand would have voted for Huckabee they could have put a crippling blow to the McCain hopes. Huckabee wasn’t really someone to worry about, but they threw their votes away when you consider that by biting their lips and voting for Huckabee they could have dealt a serious blow to the candidate that now is in prime position to take the nomination.
21. Brian | January 21st, 2008 at 6:41 am
To be fair, McCain won by far more than just a “few thousand”.