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Senator Sam Brownback of the Joint Economic Committee released a few reports regarding the debate about economic stimulus. One of these reports, A Primer on Economic Recessions, according to the email release, “while forecasters have concluded that downside risks to economic growth have been rising, most forecasters (including the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office, and private forecasters) are not forecasting a recession for the U.S. economy.”
Of course, there are a number of indications of an economic slowdown, so clearly economic stimulus is needed… For more information go here.
Gosh, what a relief. But I’m still not selling my bonds just yet.
By the way, could that forecast be considered a consensus? Lol!
2.
BushisNero | January 24th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
“We don’t know if we’re in a recession.”
Well, we could be, or…nah…we’re not.
But…we could be.
Go ahead. Invest in risk stock. Buy another investment home. Refinance again.
While your boy is clearing brush, the save all “stimulus package” is going to save the day.
Yeah, right. It’s laughably SAD.
I cringe at thought the dem’s are buying into this obvious “vote getting” scheme.
Your boy not only totally screwed up this country, ironically he took the rest of the world down with him.
Wow. Let’s play more follow your leader.
3.
Reg Dwight | January 24th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
If they are not forecasting a recession, why the .75% rate cut. Why the tax rebate?
I know it pains you to see a recession on Bush’s watch, but it is already here.
4.
1moreyear | January 24th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Reg, you mean another recession on Bush’s watch…only this one will be the kind we haven’t seen in quite a while. Hold on tight folks…
5.
Kahn | January 24th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
BIN - two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP? Nope. Thats the definition of a recession. Thought I’d clear that up for you.
Sticking with bonds? Think about it - the crisis is in the credit market. Bonds are… what? Get it? The companied issuing and dealing in bonds are in fact the ones in trouble.
Rest of the world? You mean like the three nations hostile to us that stopped nuke development under Bush? I guess nukes don’t matter.
Are you ashamed or embarrassed? Naw, why let facts get in the way when hate works so well. You idiot. Sorry, but you are.
6.
Canuckguy | January 24th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
After shooting my mouth off about an hour ago on the Tax Rebate posting, I will be more than happy to eat crow if a recession does not happen. But I will not hasten out to warm up my barbecue just yet.
7.
Jeremiah | January 24th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
When Hillary becomes President, we won’t have to worry about REcession, but about DEpression.
–Jeremiah–
8.
Ricorun | January 24th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Kahn: Sticking with bonds? Think about it - the crisis is in the credit market. Bonds are… what? Get it? The companied issuing and dealing in bonds are in fact the ones in trouble.
With all due respect, that shows how much you know. Let me give you a little hint: when interest rates go down, bond values go up. When equity values go down, bond values go up. If you invest in in-state munis, you not only don’t pay taxes on the income, it isn’t subject to AMT calculations, either. And if in the rare event that the municipality declares bankruptcy, who gets paid off first?
I don’t invest only in bonds, but they do represent my nest-egg. Bonds (many of them anyway) are a very low risk investment, so if your primary intent is to avoid losing money, they’re great. On the other hand, they don’t make you a lot of money either — unless of course interest rates and/or equity values drop. And when they both drop, you can do better in bonds than most other investments (with far less risk) — especially when you figure in the tax immunity. Plus, it helps the community, at least a little. Now do you see the logic?
9.
js | January 24th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
just dropping the interest 3/4 point will slowly turn the banks disaster around
now if they could check inflation caused by the energy crisis we would be ok
its gettin so that a grilled cheese sandwich is costin as much to make as I used to buy a whole loaf of bread a year ago!!
10.
Kahn | January 24th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Listen - do what you want with your money. But the big credit houses are the ones going under or slashing their value. It’s not theory, it’s news.
Now a month or so ago I took my non-tax deferred investments out of the market and put them in municipal bonds funds. Bonds yes. But highly rated and tax free bonds.
Again - do what you think is best for yourself.
To a different point. There is fear. Part of the fear is founded. Part of it is being whipped up by a hysterical press and political election cycle. We have not had a quarter of negative growth in GDP. So? Don’t get hung up watching the market. Honest advice, really.
markcaster
not to say earthlings aren’t make money on bonds, gold, oil or defense
but realistically
is the current u.s. overall economic situation a place you’d choose to be?
cmon…the numbers are a bit sketchy no matter how you look at it?
plus….personal credit is looming
but maybe to your point….
is lack of confidence the real cause?
bernanke instills none
deer in headlights?
i dunno…the issues are not unsolvable
but handing out dough?
one more reason for a 3rd party
13.
keefer | January 25th, 2008 at 4:55 am
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
This is your response to a rebuttal? Well done, NeroisZero…
14.
TiredofLibBullShit | January 25th, 2008 at 5:44 am
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
…. the inbred liberal mantra!
Fuel and food expenses have risen?
Could it be because we are not exploiting our own oil resources? expanded our refining capacity? Sacrificed farmland for ethanol, rather than food?
Naw…….
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
Hey, that works!!!!
15.
js | January 25th, 2008 at 7:34 am
wanna know what would really cause a recession?
a total boycot of Chinese goods.
16.
anarchist | January 25th, 2008 at 7:44 am
The fed’s been buying about 40 billion dollars of securities a day for the last 2 weeks, almost a third are mortgage backed. Obviously the plan is to print money until everyones rich. Combined with Bush’s economic stimulus plan(forced loans from china for everyone) everyone’s gonna have money soon.
The money supply has litterally doubled in the last 7 years, and people wonder why house prices, finance and capital goods are so inflated. It hasn’t been dissimated throughout the economy yet, that’s the bust phase of the bubbble, but when that happens, that’s when the little guy’s really gonna get hurt.
You must understand monetary policy to understand the cyclical nature of the economy.
17.
Dasein Libsbane | January 25th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Amateurs!
The money supply hasn’t literally, figuratively or allegorically doubled in the last 7 years. The latest release on the money supply showed a decline and seasonally adjusted the money stock measures have grown at a rate consistent with the economy.
1more year: haven’t you been playing that sad tune for three years now? Still no recession, no recession on the horizon, no credible economist is predicting a recession.
Rico, look to the ten-year treasury notes for guidance on the Bond Market; not a solid investment now.
18.
Dasein Libsbane | January 25th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Rico,
Sorry, that’s my opinion only; I haven’t checked with my investment analyst lately. You’re right Bonds are a safe harbor, but a CD will earn about the same money and the CD is guaranteed.
19.
1moreyear | January 25th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
das lesbian, no I’ve been playing this tune for about a year. I’ve already come clean and said I was early but I wasn’t wrong. The idea that nothing is wrong here is just about as foolish as thinking that Bush is a good president.
20.
anarchist | January 25th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Dasein, M3 doubled from 2000 to 2007, a recession is always proceeded by a contraction of the money supply, the fed is currently trying to keep it from contracting by printing.
21.
Dasein Libsbane | January 26th, 2008 at 12:26 am
The Fed stopped reporting M3 in March 2006, a contraction precedes a recession, but not all contractions result in recession; aside from the fact that you’re arguing that money supply is contracting and doubling simultaneously.
21 Comments
1. Ricorun | January 24th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Most Forecasters Not Forecasting a Recession
Gosh, what a relief. But I’m still not selling my bonds just yet.
By the way, could that forecast be considered a consensus? Lol!
2. BushisNero | January 24th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
“We don’t know if we’re in a recession.”
Well, we could be, or…nah…we’re not.
But…we could be.
Go ahead. Invest in risk stock. Buy another investment home. Refinance again.
While your boy is clearing brush, the save all “stimulus package” is going to save the day.
Yeah, right. It’s laughably SAD.
I cringe at thought the dem’s are buying into this obvious “vote getting” scheme.
Your boy not only totally screwed up this country, ironically he took the rest of the world down with him.
Wow. Let’s play more follow your leader.
3. Reg Dwight | January 24th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
If they are not forecasting a recession, why the .75% rate cut. Why the tax rebate?
I know it pains you to see a recession on Bush’s watch, but it is already here.
4. 1moreyear | January 24th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Reg, you mean another recession on Bush’s watch…only this one will be the kind we haven’t seen in quite a while. Hold on tight folks…
5. Kahn | January 24th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
BIN - two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP? Nope. Thats the definition of a recession. Thought I’d clear that up for you.
Sticking with bonds? Think about it - the crisis is in the credit market. Bonds are… what? Get it? The companied issuing and dealing in bonds are in fact the ones in trouble.
Rest of the world? You mean like the three nations hostile to us that stopped nuke development under Bush? I guess nukes don’t matter.
Are you ashamed or embarrassed? Naw, why let facts get in the way when hate works so well. You idiot. Sorry, but you are.
6. Canuckguy | January 24th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
After shooting my mouth off about an hour ago on the Tax Rebate posting, I will be more than happy to eat crow if a recession does not happen. But I will not hasten out to warm up my barbecue just yet.
7. Jeremiah | January 24th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
When Hillary becomes President, we won’t have to worry about REcession, but about DEpression.
–Jeremiah–
8. Ricorun | January 24th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Kahn: Sticking with bonds? Think about it - the crisis is in the credit market. Bonds are… what? Get it? The companied issuing and dealing in bonds are in fact the ones in trouble.
With all due respect, that shows how much you know. Let me give you a little hint: when interest rates go down, bond values go up. When equity values go down, bond values go up. If you invest in in-state munis, you not only don’t pay taxes on the income, it isn’t subject to AMT calculations, either. And if in the rare event that the municipality declares bankruptcy, who gets paid off first?
I don’t invest only in bonds, but they do represent my nest-egg. Bonds (many of them anyway) are a very low risk investment, so if your primary intent is to avoid losing money, they’re great. On the other hand, they don’t make you a lot of money either — unless of course interest rates and/or equity values drop. And when they both drop, you can do better in bonds than most other investments (with far less risk) — especially when you figure in the tax immunity. Plus, it helps the community, at least a little. Now do you see the logic?
9. js | January 24th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
just dropping the interest 3/4 point will slowly turn the banks disaster around
now if they could check inflation caused by the energy crisis we would be ok
its gettin so that a grilled cheese sandwich is costin as much to make as I used to buy a whole loaf of bread a year ago!!
10. Kahn | January 24th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Listen - do what you want with your money. But the big credit houses are the ones going under or slashing their value. It’s not theory, it’s news.
Now a month or so ago I took my non-tax deferred investments out of the market and put them in municipal bonds funds. Bonds yes. But highly rated and tax free bonds.
Again - do what you think is best for yourself.
To a different point. There is fear. Part of the fear is founded. Part of it is being whipped up by a hysterical press and political election cycle. We have not had a quarter of negative growth in GDP. So? Don’t get hung up watching the market. Honest advice, really.
11. BushisNero | January 25th, 2008 at 12:46 am
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
12. bagni | January 25th, 2008 at 12:54 am
markcaster
not to say earthlings aren’t make money on bonds, gold, oil or defense
but realistically
is the current u.s. overall economic situation a place you’d choose to be?
cmon…the numbers are a bit sketchy no matter how you look at it?
plus….personal credit is looming
but maybe to your point….
is lack of confidence the real cause?
bernanke instills none
deer in headlights?
i dunno…the issues are not unsolvable
but handing out dough?
one more reason for a 3rd party
13. keefer | January 25th, 2008 at 4:55 am
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
This is your response to a rebuttal? Well done, NeroisZero…
14. TiredofLibBullShit | January 25th, 2008 at 5:44 am
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
…. the inbred liberal mantra!
Fuel and food expenses have risen?
Could it be because we are not exploiting our own oil resources? expanded our refining capacity? Sacrificed farmland for ethanol, rather than food?
Naw…….
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Move along.
Obey.
Hey, that works!!!!
15. js | January 25th, 2008 at 7:34 am
wanna know what would really cause a recession?
a total boycot of Chinese goods.
16. anarchist | January 25th, 2008 at 7:44 am
The fed’s been buying about 40 billion dollars of securities a day for the last 2 weeks, almost a third are mortgage backed. Obviously the plan is to print money until everyones rich. Combined with Bush’s economic stimulus plan(forced loans from china for everyone) everyone’s gonna have money soon.
Why is the dollar dropping? Why are cost rising faster than income for lots of poorer individuals people on fixed income and small buisness?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
The money supply has litterally doubled in the last 7 years, and people wonder why house prices, finance and capital goods are so inflated. It hasn’t been dissimated throughout the economy yet, that’s the bust phase of the bubbble, but when that happens, that’s when the little guy’s really gonna get hurt.
You must understand monetary policy to understand the cyclical nature of the economy.
17. Dasein Libsbane | January 25th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Amateurs!
The money supply hasn’t literally, figuratively or allegorically doubled in the last 7 years. The latest release on the money supply showed a decline and seasonally adjusted the money stock measures have grown at a rate consistent with the economy.
1more year: haven’t you been playing that sad tune for three years now? Still no recession, no recession on the horizon, no credible economist is predicting a recession.
Rico, look to the ten-year treasury notes for guidance on the Bond Market; not a solid investment now.
18. Dasein Libsbane | January 25th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Rico,
Sorry, that’s my opinion only; I haven’t checked with my investment analyst lately. You’re right Bonds are a safe harbor, but a CD will earn about the same money and the CD is guaranteed.
19. 1moreyear | January 25th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
das lesbian, no I’ve been playing this tune for about a year. I’ve already come clean and said I was early but I wasn’t wrong. The idea that nothing is wrong here is just about as foolish as thinking that Bush is a good president.
20. anarchist | January 25th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Dasein, M3 doubled from 2000 to 2007, a recession is always proceeded by a contraction of the money supply, the fed is currently trying to keep it from contracting by printing.
21. Dasein Libsbane | January 26th, 2008 at 12:26 am
The Fed stopped reporting M3 in March 2006, a contraction precedes a recession, but not all contractions result in recession; aside from the fact that you’re arguing that money supply is contracting and doubling simultaneously.