2008 Reality Check
February 11th, 2008 at 12:43am Mark Noonan
William J. Stuntz over at the Weekly Standard has written an article sure to depress people on the right and the left - boiled down, what he points out is a hard-nosed reality:
For the right, those people who want to deport the illegals and those who want to ban abortion will not get what they want in 2008.
For the left, those people who want universal health care and an immediate/swift end to Iraq will not get what they want in 2008.
On health care, its because we simply don’t have the money for it, even if the strong opposition to it can be overcome. On the war, even an Obama would have to recognise the harsh reality - the surge has worked, and the only thing which could derail victory (and 2012 re-election hopes) is a precipitate withdrawl by a date certain. On abortion, there just isn’t the political majority to ban it, while its not possible to round up and deport 12 million or more people. Grumble all you want (and I’m one of the grumblers vis a vis abortion), but as my father would say, the pragmatic facts of life are that you can’t have everything.
Why does this matter? Because, as Stuntz points out, the person most likely to be able to take advantage of these harsh realities is John McCain - a deficit hawk, pro-life (but not deeply involved in efforts to ban abortion), identified-with-surge politician with a reputation for doing what he thinks is right, critics be damned. There is an aura of reality about John McCain entirely lacking in Obama and Hillary, as well as in McCain’s conservative critics, especially in their monomaniac complaints about McCain’s support for immigration reform (even as late as Saturday morning at CPAC, the anti-McCainiacs were out with their “stop McCain’s McShamnesty” signs). We live in a real world, which has real issues to address - and the Democrats have been serving up absurdities…mindless platitudes about how they’ll fix everything, and that will be contrasted in the public mind with McCain’s harsh realities. Now, mindless platitudes - especially if carried forward by a personable man like Obama - still might carry the day, but even a losing McCain bid will at least lay down a strong GOP marker to compare the Democrats to as we go forward to 2010 and 2012.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Immigration, Life Issues, Republicans, War on Terror
9 Comments
1. LiberalMind | February 11th, 2008 at 2:11 am
The “the harsh reality” is the surge has NOT worked.
Not even the milk toast benchmarks have been reached.
Violence against our troops are back at pre surge levels with troop losses back at 2003 levels.
2. clark smith | February 11th, 2008 at 2:49 am
The hope is not that we’ll deport the illegals, but that by drying up the illegal job market through enforcement, the illegals will begin to self-deport.
At this point I’m just hoping we don’t have wholesale amnesty in ‘09. Any of the three viable contenders will push for amnesty once in office, and with further expected Democrat gains in Congress, the future looks grim on the immigration front.
3. keefer | February 11th, 2008 at 5:39 am
Violence against our troops are back at pre surge levels with troop losses back at 2003 levels.
Which “pre-surge” levels, MindlessLib? Cherry-picked stats from 2003?
Does anybody even acknowledge you here anymore? I didn’t think so…
4. TiredofLibBullShit | February 11th, 2008 at 6:41 am
“The hope is not that we’ll deport the illegals, but that by drying up the illegal job market through enforcement, the illegals will begin to self-deport.”
Yep, it’s happening in Arizona.
“Violence against our troops are back at pre surge levels with troop losses back at 2003 levels.”
LiberalNoMind……………
Why do even try to sound intelligent? It’s an exercise in futility.
YOUR lib Congress under the “leadership” (HAH!) of Reid and Pelosi have not reached the milk toast benchmarks they set. With the exceptions of a few non-binding resolutions and useless no-confidence votes they have done NOTHING - members of their own party have been resistant to the extreme policies they tried to promote - so don’t blame Republicans like the mindless fool you are.
Go away USEFUL IDIOT - we grow bored with your spoon fed BS.
5. coulterfan | February 11th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Obama will win the election and will sweep quite a few Dems into Congress with him! Contrary to what you allege, he has EXTREMELY detailed plans (much more detailed than anyone in the GOP)- just look at his website, download his policy PDFs, etc. Those who dismiss him as ‘all platitudes’ do so at their own peril (and similarly to those who dismissed Reagan as ‘all talk, but no substance’)
However, Obama is a realist and this is why he doesn’t push UHC but incrementalism. Though we won’t have single-payer coverage (which MOST Americans support according to recent surveys!), we will makes great strides in getting insurance for the uninsured and lowering the costs for everyone. The war will end and this will force the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own government. The surge is a FAILURE because the Iraqis still DON’T HAVE an agreement on oil revenue sharing or a permanent and effective government!
McCain has no plan on health care, no plan on energy independece, has said that he really doesn’t understand the economy, and would be fine with staying in Iraq for 100 years! Do you think THAT will force the Iraqi people to get their act together? Are you SERIOUS?
PS, I think that President Obama should nominate Hillary Clinton to the SUPREME COURT! Since the Dems will have a majority in BOTH houses of Congress, and since the GOP don’t support filibusters of judicial nominees (”up or down vote” or the nuclear option!), she will sail through the nomination process and be sworn in as a Supreme Court justice during his 8 years in office!
6. Magnum Serpentine | February 11th, 2008 at 9:37 am
But you see, Mark,
a large majority of our citizens want the troops out by April 2008. I believe many pollsters who are neutral have placed that number between 66 percent and 90 percent. There is only one poll that seems to show otherwise but its a republican favored poll.
So I do not think yanking all the troops out by January 20 2009 will effect any re-election bid.
Next.
7. neocon | February 11th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Magnum,
Why wont the Democrats respect the wishes of our citizens?
Among all of the leading Democratic candidates for president, none was willing to commit to a promise in a campaign debate that all of the U.S. combat forces deployed in Iraq will be gone by 2013, the end of the next president’s term in office
8. TiredofLibBullShit | February 11th, 2008 at 10:02 am
To Pelosi, the surge is a failure because it FAILED to be a FAILURE. Libs have been burning black candles over Iraq for years…….They are getting desperate.
Still trying to make something true by repeating it endlessly.
Pathetic
9. coulterfan | February 11th, 2008 at 10:37 am
How is the surge a ’success’? If it has been successful, doesn’t that mean that we should be able to leave soon? After all, as the “Iraqis stand up, we will stand down”.
I remember all this talk from the neocons that this would be a ‘cakewalk’ which paid for itself. . .
If it has been so successful, why is McCain talking about a 100 year occupation? Is this what the American people supported when we went into Iraq? The war has lasted almost 5 years and has cost us over a TRILLION dollars so far- and there’s no end in sight! Meanwhile, the Pentagon reported that we are unprepared for a crisis at home or for another military conflict. Recruitments are down, suicides are up, and the military members are donating to Ron Paul and Obama- the two candidates who want us out of the war ASAP! Meanwhile, all the ‘war supporters’ at home refuse to enlist in the war they supposedly believe in. . .
That’s a success?!?!? I hate to think what a ‘failure’ would be. . .