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Campaign ‘08: Entirely Up in the Air
March 2nd, 2008 at 02:32am Mark Noonan
My view is that no one really has a clue how this year’s campaign will turn out - just in the fact that Hillary is on the ropes on March 1st, rather than prepping for her coronation and Democratic nominee in August, we have a strong indicator that conventional wisdom is insufficient in figuring out where we’re headed. Michael Barone makes some excellent points on this subject:
In or around 1995, these alignments froze into place and pretty much stayed there for 10 years. Helping to freeze them were particular personal characteristics of the two dominant political figures of these times, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
But now Bush is not on the ballot and Hillary Clinton’s flagging campaign has been sending her husband to places like Chillicothe, Ohio. John McCain does not have the Texas swagger and up-front religious commitment that turned many voters away from Bush and his party. Barack Obama does not seem to have the wobbly moral compass that turned many voters away from Clinton and his party.
The demographic factor most highly correlated with voting behavior in 2000 and 2004 was religion, or depth of religious belief. Within each relevant religious group, the more observant tended to vote Republican and the less observant Democratic. That may no longer be the case. Voters may well split along other lines, as voters in industrial states once split along lines of income or union membership, and voters in states with heavy early 20th century immigration split along sectarian lines (Catholic Democrats versus Protestant Republicans).
If I were running the McCain or Obama campaign, I would be doing in-depth polling and focus groups in 30 to 40 states and nationally, as well, trying to determine which voting groups are moving or moveable toward my candidate and which are moving or moveable the other way. I would certainly not be writing off states that were lost by my party’s 2000 and 2004 nominees by 5 percent or more, and I would not assume that states they carried by that much were in the bag. It’s time to throw out the old map and search for clues to what the new map will look like.
Clearly, John McCain will win Utah, much as Barack Obama will win Vermont - the really, really Red and Blue States will stay Red or Blue; but any State which is not starkly Red or Blue is, at least at this moment, up for grabs. In 2004, the States won by 5 percentage points or less are: New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), Florida (27), Nevada (5), Colorado (9), Pennsylvania (21). That is 135 electoral votes which are changable - 66 won by the GOP, 69 won by the Democrats - and there are some States won by less than 10 percentage points (Connecticut, Missouri, eg) which can also be put into play if the right steps are taken and the right circumstances eventuate.
The hill to climb is stil higher for the Democrats - they have to take away from the GOP just to win, while any States taken away from them by the GOP just makes it harder, but the GOP cannot count on winning GW’s States from 2004 - there will be battles where none thought to find any. To put it into easy terms - we could have Obama losing Pennsylvania and still getting elected President; we could have McCain losing Ohio and still getting elected President. These are unthinkable scenarios in relation to 2000 and 2004, but they could be very realistic in 2008.
It is this dawning realisation of the volatility in American politics which makes GOPers heave a sigh of relief that McCain now has 5 months to craft a plan for the fall…while Democrats are talking up how Hillary will have to pack it in unless she wins by a substantial margin in Texas and Ohio on Tuesday…she wouldn’t have to pack it in, of course, but Democratic leaders very much want this nomination process over as soon as possible because the longer it goes on, the harder it will be to get things rolling for a very difficult fall campaign.
As I said at the start of this process - buckle in for a long, exciting political ride in 2008.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
12 Comments
1. Barack Obama » Camp&hellip | March 2nd, 2008 at 3:32 am
[…] Eastwood Zhao dot COM | Happenings in a Nutshell wrote an interesting post today on Campaign ‘08: Entirely Up in the AirHere’s a quick excerptBarack Obama does not seem to have the wobbly moral compass that turned many voters away from Clinton and his party. […]
2. phnx | March 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
“If HIllary wins Ohio on Tuesday, the democrats see their shadow and there will be 6 more weeks of campaigning.” Frank Luntz
Bwwwahahahahahaha!
3. FmrMarine | March 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
>>>>>Obama does not seem to have the wobbly moral compass that turned many voters away from Clinton and his party. […]<<<<<
Wobbly moral compass??
You mean NO moral compass, or maybe satanic compass.
I dont think BO will be much different than the klintoons.
Except we will see the NOI as high level cabinet members, and the Secret Service replaced by bowtied goons with guns.
4. bagni | March 2nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
markpaign
the planetary predictors must throw in….
you got mccain and really didn’t want him
and now?
you’re going to get obama
and you really really don’t want him
ack ack
5. Kahn | March 2nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
McCain has the scars to prove that he is the compromiser. Just look at the conservative attacks on him.
Obama is rated as the most liberal member on Congress. Has compromised on NO votes. And has been missing on many important votes.
Just how is he an engine of change? Liberals, I know you love his liberal views. But, well thats because he is VERY liberal. Do you REALLY see him being able to ram through these ultra-left ideas with no thought to compromise?
Here is an idea. Next speech, turn off the sound and just watch the text. Or better yet, read the text of one of his speeches. Liberal.
6. Casper | March 2nd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
What will decide this race is the economy. If the economy is down come November Obama wins the race easily. If it is up, then we will see a fight.
7. Mark Noonan | March 2nd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Casper,
I’d throw that out if I were you - I don’t think it will come down to that in the fall, no matter what the economy is doing. All things will go into the mix, but no one can really say what will end up decisive. Used to be, remember, that high turnout was always supposed to favor the Democrats - well, it didn’t in 2004 and I don’t think it will in 2008. Both sides will have high turnout because as the fall campaign comes in, the stakes will get higher and higher as both parties rally their respective bases to a fever pitch, while more independents come in simply because the race is very, very interesting and they don’t want to miss out on it.
This campaign is already becoming water-cooler fodder. Last night, the Mrs and I were out with two close friends and 90% of the discussion was over the election…usually, out of politeness, someone might ask me about politics in a general sense, knowing that I am keen on it…this year, again and again, I’ve been drawn into detailed discussions of convention rules, electoral votes, demographic shifts…and this all with fairly apolitical people (”apolitical” in the sense that they are not party stalwarts, even if they do vote regularly). Democrats, Republicans and independents, all are fascinated by this campaign - and only in a very few cases have I come across the definitive “this is what I’ll do in November” assertion (mostly these are people who are declaring tha, come what may, they won’t vote for Hillary…).
As I’ve said before, don’t be surprised if 150 million people end up voting and someone getting 74 million votes still ends up losing.
8. Casper | March 2nd, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Mark,
I agree that this election is drawing a lot of interest. My students seem to be way ahead of past groups as far as their knowledge of who the candidates are. They also seem to be leaning a lot further to the left than the group I had 8 years ago (remember this is in a very Red state). However, it’s still very early and a lot can happen between now and November.
9. Thrower | March 2nd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Glad to hear you’re doing well economically Mark. I can think of no other reason why a guy as bright as you would be so tone deaf on the political importance of the economy.
Whether it is Reagan Democrats who have lost jobs, young people who can’t find good ones or homeowners who are hemorrhaging equity , economic ills that affect most middle class voters are not going away in the next eiught months. Add in $4 per gallon gas, and you have a witch’s brew which will fuel a mandate for change. If McCain can’t do better on economic recovery than making the tax cuts permanent, he will lose in a landslide.
10. Mark Noonan | March 2nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Thrower,
Actually, I’ve not only lost the equity I had in my home, but its now worth about 100k less than I owe on it; on the bright side, however, the low housing prices have allowed my step-son as well as a dear friend who is a single mom to purchase their first homes. Life only sucks, Thrower, if you are a miserable, negative person…and thus a Democrat.
Be that as it may, I just don’t see economic issues - or, indeed, any single issue - driving this election. Its going to be a host of issues mixed in with personalities and perceptions all underpinned by a strong left/right ideological struggle. This is very likely to be as watershed an election as either 1932 or 1860 were.
11. Thrower | March 2nd, 2008 at 7:03 pm
I don’t think you’ve ever taken a personal shot at me before Mark. Not like you. I didn’t cite any personal distress so why did you assume that? I am upside down in a condo I bought in 2006, but I have three other properties with great equity. This housing market won’t drop enough to hurt me much.
But I see the world through more than my own eyes, and I see economic distress everywhere. I’d bet you do too. And beyond that, the combination of stagnant wages, rising prices and a housing meltdown scares people who aren’t even hurting yet. Get out a little and you’ll see that.
I don’t think McCain is dead by any means, but if he doesn’t offer more on economics than more tax cuts for guys like me, he will be. And by the way, some of the angriest of my friends are longtime Republicans who have seen the party abandon its principles.
12. Mark Noonan | March 2nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Thrower,
Didn’t take a shot at you - just at miserable, negative people (ie, Democrats). If you’re not any such, then you’ve got no worries…
I know the MSM is hammering home that all is miserable, but it really isn’t - there are ups and downs in the economy and in a nation of a $13 trillion GDP and 300,000,000 people, you’re always going to be able to cherry pick out whatever data you want - whether you want to present a picture of perfection or complete misery.
The dollar is down - oh, my, we’re all gonna die go the pundits…but the weaker dollar also allowed the US to export $126.7 billion more goods in 2007 as opposed to 2006.
The housing market is in the dumps…but if you look at the stats, the number of US home sales is 2.2% less than a year ago…and in the west it is up 2.2% over a year ago, while the real driver of the down RE market is the northeast, with its 10.3% decrease in home sales…and no surprise, as there never should have been a surging Northeast RE market because the population of the area is stable or in decline (in other words, that is where the real bubble was). Meanwhile, as I noted, the lower housing prices are allowing first time buyers to enter the market at a great price…you might now some people ticked off at their lost equity, but I know people who are delighted that they can finally afford a home of their own.
For all the moans and groans about how we’re all about to be sent to the soup kitchen, the fact remains that 146 million people are employed in the United States at this time - about 2 million more than were employed a year ago. A higher number of employed persons doesn’t happen in a down economy.
Now, are there people in a bad way? You betcha - a guy I know at Church recently lost his job and he’s got a hard road ahead of him. I could lose my job, and that would put a high burden on me…but, know what?, not that many people are hurting as bad as HillBama are making it out to be. And not all of those who are hurting will listen to the siren song of more government as the solution. And, also, with the stakes as high as they are in 2008, there will be plenty of people - even in a bad economic situation - who will vote for whom they think is best, not for whom promises the higher welfare payments or the higher taxes on “the rich”…class warfare doesn’t work too well in the US.
As for McCain’s chances - I like them; but I’m making no predictions this year. I don’t know who’s going to win, and I might not know until they declare it on election night. But if you think a Senator in his third year in office who is only polling in the low-40’s in Pennsylvania is a shoe-in to beat McCain, then you’ve got a far more powerful crystal ball than I do…