John McCain’s Crossover Appeal
March 9th, 2008 at 12:45am Mark Noonan
This has got to keep Democratic strategists up at night:
The two new political demographics — like Soccer moms and NASCAR dads before them — are quickly emerging as the potential election-busters of the 2008 presidential race.
And contrary to conventional wisdom, numbers emerging from polls and primary results show that Sen. John McCain — who has alienated conservatives as he courts independents and moderate Democrats — holds an advantage over Sen. Barack Obama in the race for crossover votes.
There are now more McCainocrats than Obamacans — about 14 percent of Democrats say they would vote for Mr. McCain today instead of Mr. Obama, but just 8 percent of Republicans say they would vote for the Illinois Democrat, according to a Pew Research Center survey on Feb. 28.
Additionally, 20 percent of white Democratic voters say they would defect to Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama is the Democratic Party’s nominee — twice the number who would cross over if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton wins the nomination, Pew found.
“McCain poses a clear and present danger to Obama in that he draws Democrat base support in historic numbers,” said Republican strategist Scott Reed.
While Mrs. Clinton would draw far fewer Republican crossover voters and is making little effort to do so, Mr. Obama — who leads in the delegate race for the nomination — is making no bones about courting members of the other party. He tells a story at nearly every campaign event about Republicans quietly supporting him, which always draws guffaws from his partisan crowd.
“They whisper to me. They say, ‘Barack, I’m a Republican, but I support you,’ ” he said in an exaggerated stage whisper last month after winning primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District.
“And I say, ‘Thank you. Why are we whispering?’ ” Pointing into the crowd with a broad smile, he said: “There’s one right there, an ‘Obamacan,’ that’s what we call them.” Raucous laughter erupted from his supporters.
Meanwhile, Mr. McCain, who already wrapped up the Republican nomination, likes to point out that he draws strong support from members of the other party. In Michigan’s voting, on Jan. 15, some 10 percent of those who voted in the GOP primary were Democrats, and Mr. McCain won half of those votes. A December poll in Nevada showed Mr. McCain drawing 17 percent of Democrats.
As I’ve said, just buckle in for a wild ride here in 2008 - first and foremost, anyone saying they know what the result will be at this point is either an ignoramous, or an idiot. For we GOPers, the key will be to fight and fight and fight - just keep at it and fight to win. If we win, we’ll be happy - if we lose, we’ll know we lost after giving it our best effort, not because we became complacent.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
33 Comments
1. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 1:06 am
I don’t think McCain’s very appealing. In 2000,we were told about John McCain and his evil,by the RNC.
I stand by their judgement.
2. Almiranta | March 9th, 2008 at 1:33 am
Whatever. Don’t let the door hit you in the donkey on the way out……
But McCain does appeal to a lot of people who are near the center, from either side. Yakkity is clearly way way WAY too far Left to be impressed by anything less than a hard-core Socialist, so go for it, Yakki.
And, duh, no one ever said McCain was evil, you silly twit. Where do you people GET this stuff?
And why do you think you’re funny?
3. winnowhead | March 9th, 2008 at 1:55 am
Only problem is a heck of a lot more people self identify as Democrats than Republicans, 52% vs 35%:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080306/ap_on_el_pr/bush_congress_ap_poll
I guess the failure to mention that in the article is just another example of “liberal” media bias, eh?
4. Mark Noonan | March 9th, 2008 at 3:10 am
winnow,
But that same poll shows McCain down only 5 percentage points from Hillary…which means that a lot of those self-ID’d Democrats are McCain voters.
And then there’s the Newsweek poll - traditionallyh slanted in favor of the Democrats - McCain only 1 point back of Obama…
Know what it all means? Nothing, really - you can grasp the polls which put your side in to a favorable light, but the nitty gritty of this campaign won’t be fought out in opinion polling (which has been very amazingly wrong thus far this year).
What is interesting here is McCain’s potential to pull in Democratic voters and Obama’s potential to pull in GOP voters…it doesn’t mean that either of them will pull it off, but it does mean that it is possible…and, personally, I think it will happen if its Obama vs McCain…we GOPers will lose our weak sisters who never warmed to Bush and have been looking for an excuse to ditch the GOP…you Democrats will lose that faction of the Democratic party which agrees with people like Joe Lieberman on the war…who will benefit more? Time will tell…
5. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 3:16 am
Oh please Almaranter,learn to take a joke.
And it’s not my fault the Republicans swiftboated McCain in 2000.
You can blame that on yourselves.
6. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 3:18 am
“And why do you think you’re funny?”
Here’s a question right back:
And why do you think you are intelligent?
See how silly such a query is?
7. Almiranta | March 9th, 2008 at 3:11 am
yakkity, I didn’t realize that McCain was “swiftboated” at any time. Please enlighten me. Just when did McCain falsely declare himself to be a war hero, only to have those who actually served with him go public with the facts which discounted his story?
Because the actual meaning of “swiftboating” is to provide facts to counter a false claim.
Guess that answers your “intelligent” query, doesn’t it?
And your post answered mine as well, illustrating that your peculiar type of humor is not that which makes people laugh with you, but at you. Ha Ha
8. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 6:04 am
I guess you fail to realize that “swiftboating” has changed definition in the popular vernacular,eh?
So perhaps,dear Almaranty,you’re the idiot that I thought you were.
BTW,you can’t remember McCain’s run in 2000? Are you developing Alzheimer’s like Reagan?
Here,educate yourself:
http://www.bartcopnation.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=522
I guess that didn’t happen either,eh?
Now who’s the boob? HA HA
9. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 6:08 am
And btw Almaranty,Sen. McCain STILL remembers how he was treated,even if the wingnuts won’t fess up to it now:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/us/politics/17carolina.html?hp
I guess you have two choices now. You can either accept for a fact that McCain was swiftboated,or you can call him a liar.
Your choice.
10. js | March 9th, 2008 at 8:21 am
All that really pales in light of the truth, Yakki.
You just dont understand it, just like the other blog. You chew and chew and spit, and in the end, you didnt even leave tooth marks.
You forget that the DNC is the party of the confederacy. Old, well established families going back to before the civil war support the DNC. Its a bit racist, but yes, this contest will come down to just that. Those folks will elect a conservative white above a unestablished liberal black every time.
194 Million Americans are white (2k census), almost 2/3 of the US Population. Its going to take much more than the stuffed shirt Obama is to become President. Its not going to happen. Charisma has carried him this far, but thats all he has got. He is literally a sinking ship. Thats why Republicans are voting for him in the Primaries, because he already lost.
11. Kahn | March 9th, 2008 at 9:08 am
PSD - Pretty Stupid D*CK? Just wondering.
Keep running on derision and hatred. See how it works out for you.
12. bozo the neoclown | March 9th, 2008 at 9:20 am
“11. Kahn | March 9th, 2008 at 9:08 am
PSD - Pretty Stupid D*CK? Just wondering.
Keep running on derision and hatred. See how it works out for you.”
Coming from the party that created the term “islamofascists” “demon-rats” and others not to mention those frequently spewed on this blog, that’s pretty funny.
13. Herman | March 9th, 2008 at 9:23 am
With Democrats winning a House District in Illinois last night that had been solidly Republican for quite some time (it was Denny Hastert’s old seat), we see further evidence that it is the Republicans, not the Democrats, who should worry.
14. Almiranta | March 9th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Remember, these polls reflect the situation right now—when McCain has yet to go up against either Dem.
When a Dem nominee is chosen, that nominee will have to go up against the IDEAS of each party. For now, there is no real difference between the goals and ideals of Clinton and Obama, so people are basing their opinions on superficial characteristics. Later it will be on issues, and that is where the rubber will meet the road.
Assuming it will be Obama, he will then be up against a seasoned debater and will have to address the issues he has so far ducked. Now, for example, when Barack uses the Imperial I to say he will do this and he will do that, Hillary doesn’t challenge him on how he will do it, or how much money it will cost, or what a tax increase will do to the economy, because she wants to do exactly the same things. Her only comeback is that, well, she can do it better. McCain will be there demanding to know why a “change” is necesarily better, how it can be accomplished, what it will cost, what will be the corollary results, and so on.
Some yappers have no idea of how the primary selection process is run. You can shorten that sentence to “…have no idea….” and it will still fly, but in this case, the thread is about McCain going up against either Dem candidate, so let’s stick with that.
In this process, each party’s hopefuls go up against each other. Those who have been paying attention know this. So right now, for example, Hillary is doing whatever she can to defeat Barack., and vice versa. But most Dems feel, no matter which of them wins, they will support that candidate.
Once upon a time, McCain ran against other candidates, who did the same things that the Dems have done in this election cycle, trying to convince Republican voters that they were better than McCain. It happened again this year. And, as usual, once the nominee is chosen, the party will rally around it.
(While the truly simpleminded seem to “think”—to exaggerate the validity of the process—that once McCain has received criticism from his own side, it can’t possibly support him, they miss the point, which is that we think that ANY of those running on the GOP ticket is better than what they can field. Yep, our worst is better than your best—-and McCain is far from the worst. Really really REALLY far.)
Evidently some extremely rabid mouthbreather has determined that once a hopeful has had anything negative said about him in the primary, he is permanently branded and the party can’t come back and support him. But we have to consider the source.
In this case, the yakkity (yappity) source is so far off base on everything, well….GIGO. This is an excellent example of how the farthest left wing of the party attracts those whose pathology is so distasteful they can’t fit in anywhere but someplace that needs, recruits, encourages and validates behavior no one else will tolerate. I think their theory is that they will get these misfits all pumped up with radical hate-driven rhetoric and then send them out like a pack of attack dogs to harass conservatives.
But as yappy points out, they often end up sending out ankle-biters instead of anyone of any substance at all.
15. Almiranta | March 9th, 2008 at 10:59 am
“changed in the popular vernacular” is meaningless gibberish—that is to say, par for the course for yapster.
A meaning is a meaning, and just because a term appeals to rabid few who mistakenly think political discourse is just an excuse to indulge their hateful pathologies doesn’t mean they can twist it to mean anything they want it to mean.
It is not out of character for a rabid far-Lefter to try to hijack a term like “swiftboating” and claim it means what it never has—and what it never will. Orwell commented on this tactic many many years ago, and yappy is just proving that Orwell really knew the radical Left.
It always has, and always will, mean exactly what it meant when it was coined, no matter how many temper tantrums yappy little political hangers-on throw because they have finally learned a multisyllabic word and think they should be able to redefine it at will.
16. FmrMarine | March 9th, 2008 at 11:00 am
JS
>>>>>You forget that the DNC is the party of the confederacy. Old, well established families going back to before the civil war support the DNC. Its a bit racist, but yes, this contest will come down to just that.<<<<
DONT remind the democRATS, that THEY are the one’s who gave us
the confederate flag
the lynchings of blacks and, republicans.
the KKK
george wallace
sheets byrd
segregation
MLK murder
police dogs unleashed on blacks
governors blocking blacks from schools
john burch society
abortions on demand
radical homosexuality
what a great party, they must be proud of all that heritage.
17. phnx | March 9th, 2008 at 11:19 am
“Only problem is a heck of a lot more people self identify as Democrats than Republicans, 52% vs 35%” Minnowhead
Does that include Republicans like me who have changed their registrationtion to vote in the Dem primary? I can’t wait for April in PA.
Obama or Clinton???? I just can’t decide which vote will do more to help continue the soap opera.
MMMuuuuhahhhahahahahahaha!
18. phil | March 9th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Mark,
To state what’s painfully obvious for all but the most dedicated self-deceivers, if you “GOPers” lose in the next election cycle it will be because the American public finally became tired of getting screwed by the Republicans for the last 7 years. Your frantic rear-guard defense to the contrary, people are beginning to understand the depths of the callous deception done by the supposedly “moral” republicans in the White House and congress over the last 7 years. The sooner you admit to yourself what you know to be true about the moral character of those who you proclaim to support the better off you will be. Come on, Mark, be honest with yourself. It’s the first step toward recovery.
Good luck!
19. BARRASSO | March 9th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
This whole thread has been hilarious, every comment by a “conservative” has been unintentionally ironic, massively ignorant, appealing to the fact that 150 years ago the republicans had the moral high ground on race. But the top most ignorantly hilarious was this, “Charisma has carried him this far, but thats all he has got. He is literally a sinking ship.”
If you don’t know why that is funny go back to third grade English class.
20. sleepygene | March 9th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
McCain does have cross over appeal but that will depend upon who he goes against. If Obama is his opponent I believe the independents and some centrist republicans go with Obama not McCain. If Clinton is his opponent his cross over appeal is greater.
On a related note, in a special election yesterday in a district near me, IL-14; held by Denny Hastert for 21 years and voted for Bush in 2004 55%-45%, just voted in a Democrat Bill Foster. Foster had the support of Obama, who did a spot for him. Foster’s opponent, perenial losing campaigner, Jim Oberwies who was supported by McCain lost 52%-48%. Is this a harbinger of what will happen in November. Also the NRCC dumped 1.2 million into this losing race. This can’t be good news to most supporters of this site. But it is grand news in my home.
21. phil | March 9th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Deleted - mindless insults.
22. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
10. js | March 9th, 2008 at 8:21 am
All that really pales in light of the truth, Yakki.
You just dont understand it, just like the other blog. You chew and chew and spit, and in the end, you didnt even leave tooth marks.
JS,who’s chewing? I was LAUGHING. You wingnuts should try it sometime. I po0int to you my initial post,which was a joke,lol.
So I don’t get what you’re talking about at all. And what blog? The coward Jeremiah’s?
23. Yakki.PsD | March 9th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Almaranty: Nice defelection from the fact that you were WRONG,once again.
I never stated he wasn’t fit for office,or that it would affect him now. I made a joke about how he was treated in 2000 by Republicans.
You’re the one changing the argument to hide your failure to make a point. I didn’t say anything about McCain not being accepted now. Although I do find it a tad hypocritical of the Republican party,after their treatment of him.
I also think it shines a sad light on McCain. Any man who’d kiss the arse of the people who smeared and mistreated him like that,has no honor IMO.
24. Nietzsche-Is-Pietzsche | March 9th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
FmrMarine-
I really hope Mark won’t delete that post as I am dying to hear the verbal gymnastics conservatives will use to back away from that group. But what am I saying, deleting is so much easier.
25. Brian G. | March 9th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Democratic support for McCain? Don’t be ridiculous. You’re getting your readers’ hopes up, Mr. Noonan. Maybe back when he was a moderate, McCain could’ve grabbed the Reagan Dems. Unfortunately for McCain, the GOP, and the country, Sen. McCain is now a card-carrying member of the religious right. Shame…
26. plainjane | March 9th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Foster’s opponent, perenial losing campaigner, Jim Oberwies who was supported by McCain lost 52%-48%20. sleepygene | March 9th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
This coupled with the fact Republicans couldn’t even find someone competent enough to run against John Murtha in Western Pa is simply wonderful news. Obama and Clinton have coattails already.
The days of beholding to the communist in China who hold our debt and neocon merchants of fear are almost over. 1/20/09
27. John Ryan | March 9th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Fmr Marine
Blacks are one of the firm bases of the MODERN Democratic Party. (89% voted Democartic in 2006)
American Jews are another firm base. (87% voted Democratic in 2006)
CNN exit polls 2006
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html
When people talk of hating the Democrats these are some of the groups that they HATE
28. Joe | March 9th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
His crossover appeal? When you see a stiff un-animated John McCain debating someone like Obama, let’s see who says McCain will attract.
Just a thought but… “Soccer Moms” are not going to want to send their current soccer players to Iraq when McBush has us still there in 10-20 yrs. They aren’t going to remain too keen on letting those soccer players paying for the daily debts we are incurring by staying in Iraq.
29. A Running Commentary | March 9th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Remember all the anti-war energy in 1972 behind George McGovern? Then Nixon took 49 out of 50 states. If Bush could win in 2004, McCain certainly can and will in 2008 IF he runs the right campaign.
30. Eric T | March 10th, 2008 at 6:22 am
Former Marine-
Post #16-
Clinton is the real power in the DNC, Obama will get thrown under the bus, re-doing primaries, Super delegates, whatever they need to do.
31. Eric T | March 10th, 2008 at 7:14 am
Fmr Marine-
It is not the vote that counts, it is who counts the vote.
#16 - The Party that gave us the poll tax, grandfather clause, and other great ways to rig elections will find a way to reinstate a guy that expired his term limits.
32. mccain blog&hellip | March 27th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
[…] on the trail," she writes. McCain&39s website also gives readers a more …socialitereport.comJohn McCain??s Crossover Appealblogblogsforvictory.comMcCain to Hit the Trail With Romney - Boston MagazineEven better, Romney […]
33. mccain blogs&hellip | March 27th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
[…] In my Non-fiction book, I finished my Blogging chaptvalley-of-the-shadow.blogspot.comJohn McCain??s Crossover Appealblogblogsforvictory.comThe All Starr Blog - Newsweek… for the presidency she so desperately covets […]