Primary Turnout as an Election Predictor
March 12th, 2008 at 06:39am Mark Noonan
Bottom line, it isn’t.
Jay Cost over at Real Clear Politics has an interesting chart which shows the share of the primary vote which went Democrat and the share of the general election vote which went Democrat. This year, we’ve been told again and again that there is an “enthusiasm gap” - that Democrats are on fire, turning out in huge numbers for the primaries and this indicates a GOP rout come November. The problem is that there is no historical basis to make such a claim.
The Democrats may, indeed, blow us GOPers out of the water in November, but one cannot predict this from primary turnout. In the seven elections where Democrats equalled or exceeded this year’s primary vote (this year Democrats have taken 62.2% of the primary vote), Democrats lost five of the contests - with the most remarkable being 1972, where Democrats took nearly 75% of the primary vote, but only 39% of the general election vote. Of course, as Cost points out, the best comparison with this year is 1988 - where both parties had an open contest. In that year, Democrats exceeded this year’s share of the primary vote (65% vs 62%), and yet the Democrats were trounced in November, 54% to 46%.
This historical data tracks well with the polling we’ve seen - while most polls show Hillary and Obama slightly ahead of McCain for the fall contest (and some show McCain leading both candidates), the fact remains that in spite of massive turnout and enthusiasm, neither candidate in any polling is crushing McCain in polling. In fact, as a salve to the GOP, this historic data on polling shows that for a GOPer to be in McCain’s position here in March vis a vis the Democrat is a good thing - the GOP generally polls weaker the further out from the vote you go. The evidence I’m seeing shows that the race will likely be very close.
Of course, for our Democratic friends, I urge you to believe that you’ve already won the election…sit back, relax; Obama has already beaten us and not only won the White House, but massively increased the Democratic Congressional majority. Go to sleep, little Democrats, you’ve nothing to worry about, or to do, between now and November.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
31 Comments
1. plainjane | March 12th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Deleted - off topic.
2. William Teach | March 12th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Who’s cranky in the morning, who’s cranky in the morning (as said to one’s favorite pet)
As far as staying on topic of the post, Republicans do not really have an reason to go to the polls. McCain is the nominee. When it is time for the NC primaries, I may go vote for Hillary, but, more then likely, I will ignore the day. I have no stake.
The question is, can the Left keep their emotions riding high through to November? Obama’s campaign is strictly based on emotion, and the youth vote. Historically, the youths get involved early, then, come election day, have better things to do.
I guess we will see.
3. William Teach | March 12th, 2008 at 8:19 am
PS: Plainjane, could the deletions have anything to do with liberals going off topic with deranged conversations, using vulgarity and vile personal attacks? Na, that couldn’t be it, because Liberals never do that (sic).
Maybe I will go try and comment at the Daily Kos. No, wait, can’t, they delete anything, even on topic comments, that comes from someone who is not a progressive.
How ’bout the Democratic Underground? Nope, not there either. The terms of services specifically preclude anyone who is not a progressive.
Not speaking for Matt or Mark, but, commenting is a privilege, not a right. Liberals constantly abuse that right with their derangement syndromes and personal attacks.
4. SEW | March 12th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Teach, I wouldn’t read too much into jane’s promise. Virtually everything she posts is a lie, what’s one more?
And for the stats, good insight. The Snakeoilsalesman will easily be exposed. His voting record is there, as are his non votes, ‘present’. Of course the progressives won’t change, they want their free car, and look forward to the same empty promises of wealth redistribution in 2112. But the Independents will, and the ‘Dems’ [wink, wink] that voted for Hillary in Texas and Ohio will of course vote McCain. Not much credit has been given to Texas Republican voters for voting Billary to keep the trainwreck on course for Denver.
5. InDaVa | March 12th, 2008 at 9:08 am
“PS: Plainjane, could the deletions have anything to do with liberals going off topic with deranged conversations, using vulgarity and vile personal attacks? Na, that couldn’t be it, because Liberals never do that (sic).”
Yea right. No one from the right side of the aisle has ever posted anything off topic, vulgar, or personal attacks. Those posts are left alone and actually praised when attacking liberals on this site.
6. Michael | March 12th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Why all the dramatics? Just leave. Back on topic, having an already selected nominee will often suppress turnout in the remaining primaries. And on the left, the youth vote is famous for being no-shows on election day. The major determining factors, though, will be what goes on after both parties have nominees slugging it out as well as things out of either side’s control like the war, the economy, gas prices, and stuff like the weather.
7. SEW | March 12th, 2008 at 9:57 am
So who can the Snakeoilsalesman select as his VP candidate? Oprah? Chavez? Castro? Ajmadman? All they have to do is swim the Rio Grande to become citizens under one of his plans.
That choice will further diminish his political standing. And Mark, you let ‘DaVa’ slip through another OT post.
8. Darva Conger | March 12th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Mark:
You want an election predictor? Take your pick:
$12B/month in Iraq while:
a. gas nationwide at $4.00/gallon
b. oil at $120.00/barrel
c. tens of thousands of jobs shed each week this summer and fall.
d. Stock market below 10,150 on election day
e. Cranky McCain losing cool in October debate.
9. SEW | March 12th, 2008 at 11:37 am
How about this as an election predictor.
“Four in 10 Obama supporters said they would be satisfied if Clinton wins the nomination, while only a quarter of hers said the same about Obama. And while almost half of Obama’s voters said Clinton has offered detailed plans to address the major issues, only a quarter of Clinton backers said the same about Obama.”
“While 92 percent of blacks lined up behind the Illinois senator, 70 percent of whites supported Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to an exit poll of voters conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks.”
Spin that darling.
10. Darva Conger | March 12th, 2008 at 11:49 am
SEW:
What is to spin? Obama gets the nomination. Clinton doesn’t get the VP.
Obama/Webb beats the ever loving s*** out of McCain/Palin due to the economy and Iraq.
11. SEW | March 12th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Good spin. But…Dems can disenfranchise Michigan and Florida, but not Clinton voters in the general election. Just the primary. Poetic for the “let every vote count” party. They will vote McCain! And the longer the 2 Socialists slug it out, the bigger the hole. Snake oil won’t sell in the general election.
12. Mark Noonan | March 12th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Darva,
Could be - I’m just advising you not to read too much into the primary stats; if you think you’ve got November in the bag, then you’re whistling past a graveyard.
All the signs point to a Democratic year…and yet, McCain still polls very well even in some blue States like Michigan and Pennsylvania…the best advice about this election was given by Michael Barone a few weeks ago - which is essentially to take nothing for granted…other than bright red and deep blue States, everything is up for grabs…each party starts with a solid base of about 160 electoral votes, and figuring out how to get to 270 will take a lot of efforts, and if one side guesses wrong about the way to do it, they’ll get clobbered.
13. SteaM | March 12th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
I just want to see a debate with Obama and McCain.
14. Darva Conger | March 12th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Mark:
“Take nothing for granted?”
Well, here are something I think the American people can count on between now and November.
240 more Americans killed in Iraq. (30 per month)
$96B more spent in Iraq ($12B per month)
$4.00/gallon gas
a recession
$120/barrel oil
subprine meltdown continues
rising unemployment
health care cost out of control
house prices falling
more in debt to China
less powerful dollar
So tell me why McCain/Palin wins? I am not saying it is a slam dunk for us Dems, just tell me how McCain/Palin overcomes the above?
15. Pete_Bonduant | March 12th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Hey liberals,
Please tell me which states Obama or Clinton take away from Bush ‘04 and which states do they lose. Ohio? Maybe but they have to defend a lot of states including: Michigan, Wisconsin, NH, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and New Mexico.
New Mexico, Minnesota and NH bode very well for McCain.
Missouri stays on the GOP side because a pro-abortion candidate like Obama does not sit well in that state.
Jim Webb as a vp choice? That is funny.
I love how liberals are so optimistic every four years only to get crushed come November. This election is going to be like 1972. The Democrats ran an ultra liberal candidate and got hammered. The same will occur this year.
16. William Teach | March 12th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Say, Darva, as you keep posting stats, can you tell us what the Obamessiah or Hillary would do about them, or could do about them?
You aren’t allowed to use the words hope or change. We need actual action plans.
17. Joe | March 12th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
OK Teach. You people ask this crap all the time.
Allow me to answer………
READ the pdf from Obama’s website. I know I know…. “All you can do is point to a website”, “You can’t even say what his plans are”, “blah blah blah blah….
We know you and the other Dem-haters just LOVE to have bumpersticker explanations of plans. If it can’t be described in 5 words as Bush usually does, then you don’t think they are true plans. Take a look at Obama’s plans. A plan is not something you describe in 5 words. Read the pdf. The plans are all right there in detail.
The truth here is that more than once I’ve posted a few bullet points and a summary of his some of Obama’s plans. All I’ve gotten is “those will never work” or “those will cost way too much”.
The fact that you don’t like or don’t agree with his plans, doesn’t mean plans don’t exist.
Do a bit of research and read the pdf for yourself. It would be good to see what “plans” truly are and not just go by bumpersticker plans.
18. Joe | March 12th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Hey Pete.
You can’t just come out and say “New Mexico, Minnesota and NH bode very well for McCain.” then not explain why you think that.
If it is Clinton, NH would absolutely go the Dem way. She is a stronger candidate than Kerry was and he won. There are more and more Mass folks moving over the border and she has a big backing there. if it is Obama, then it still remains VERY much in play again… a stronger candidate than Kerry was and he won. It also depends on his running mate and what Hillary does once Obama wins the nomination. If she is either on the ticker or very active in backing him, then NH is definitely leaning the Dem way.
New Mexico? Bill Richardson is a very big influence there and would be pushing for either quite strongly.
Bottom line is Dems are much, much more pleased with either nominee more so than with Kerry in 2004. He wasn’t well liked and didn’t get anyone excited about voting. Plus, that was 2004. Only 4 years of this disasterous presidency. People are even more fed up with it and will vote against a Bush 3rd term with McCain.
So now please explain why those states “bode very well for McCain”.
19. Darva Conger | March 12th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
“Normally when you see a black man or a woman president, an asteroid is about to hit the Statue of Liberty.”
– Jon Stewart
20. phnx | March 12th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
In the Presidential elections the Donks have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. What is even more amusing is that every time they are supremely confident of their victory, only to be disappointed in the result. They can never accept that their policies are to the left of the average american. At the end of November they will bleat: “if we could have only gotten our message out” or it was “voter intimidation” or my personal favorite, “we was robbed”. They’re such an entertaining lot.
21. William Teach | March 12th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Matter of fact, Joe, I have done just that. I did the same with Kerry, and knew his platforms pretty well. I was most impressed with his environmental policies, more so then when Gore ran in 2000.
But empty pie in the sky promises doesn’t do anything. They cannot fix most of those issues.
22. Joe | March 12th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
So you are in the tent of… “Those wouldn’t work, so they aren’t plans”?
Anyway…. so say the choice is McCain or Obama.
What would McCain do to about those issues in post #14, that I think we all (at least in part) believe are some of the most important issues facing Americans?
Explain how McCain’s plans (and I have read thru his website on the issues) are better than Obama’s. In my opinion, I think Obama has better plans and more detailed plans.
Again, you not agreeing with his plans doesn’t mean that they don’t exist. That just means that you won’t vote for him.
23. NeoClown | March 12th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
I am a Hillary supporter and would never vote for Obama.
I have a gut feeling that approximately 25% of Hillary supporters would never vote for Obama, and 25% of Obama supporters would never vote for Hillary.
It is unclear how many democrats will stay home this November, or how many of them will go out and vote for McCain. I will probably go out and vote for McCain.
Until now Republicans have had little reason to vote in the primaries. Before Florida, most republicans weren’t in love with any of their candidates and had a wait and see attitude. After Florida it was a given that McCain was the parties choice and there was no reason to go out and vote.
What the democrats have forgotten is how good the republicans are at getting out the vote, and how good republicans are at voting against things. Republicans will turn out in droves this November to vote against Hillary or Obama.
24. Darva Conger | March 12th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Well, how about this?
Pull out of Iraq, that means hundreds of American soldiers will be alive in ‘09.
Instead of $96B more spent in Iraq ($12B per month) we start spending part of that on the Manhattan Project every President yaks about to start getting off foreign oil or oil altogether (or at least start). That will start brining down the $4.00/gallon gas, the recession and $120/barrel oil.
Take a fraction of the $12B a month and hire regulators to control predatory lenders, that will ensure a subprime meltdown eases up. Some of that $12B a month could go toward building our roads and ports, that will help rising unemployment. Health care cost out of control? I admit, with the strangle hold the insurance companies have on out nuts, I am not sure Obama can do much, but lets at least get the children covered. House prices falling? When people are back to work, they will feel more comfortable buying a home, when the loans are legal and fair, they’ll be more likely to buy what they can afford. More in debt to China? If we’re going to go into debt with the Chi-Coms it should at least be to build up America and not Iraq. If we borrow less, the power of the dollar will grow.
Ya know, not spending $12B a month on a wasteful war would do a lot to improve many things here in the good old U. S. of A.
25. William Teach | March 12th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
12billion is a drop in the bucket towards the federal bill as a whole.
How about lowering taxes and letting people decide what they want to do with their own money? The feds are taking on powers that the Framers never envisioned, nor wanted. The Constitution was not enacted so that the federal government could act as Mommy. While we should certainly help our fellow citizens with hand up when they are down, it should not be a hand out.
As far as subprime loans, why not revamp the public school system so that people are taught not to be chumps when they become adults? Yes, some of the blame goes towards the companies. More blame goes to the idiots who signed the contracts. No one forced them to.
26. Gaijin | March 12th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
SEW,
“So who can the Snakeoilsalesman select as his VP candidate? Oprah? Chavez? Castro? Ajmadman? All they have to do is swim the Rio Grande to become citizens under one of his plans.”
I’m sorry, are you talking about Obama or John McCain? Let’s see, who put their name on Comprehensive Immigration Reform? Oh yeah, McCain and Bush along with Kennedy were behind that one. Nice try though!
NeoClown,
What are you talking about? You are going to vote for McCain over Obama if Clinton doesn’t get the nomination. Do you know anything about each of the three’s policies? Most people, not Democrats but most of the people who live in the US, will be voting for whoever is the Dem canidate. People are so tired of everything Bush and the Republicans have messed up over the past 7 years that they would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot.
In 2004 with Kerry, people voted against Bush. Except for some Super Delegate nightmare, Obama will be the nominee. Support for him is going to come like a tsunami in November crushing Republicans.
As far as the youth vote goes:
“Youth voting surged by 11 percentage points in 2004.”
www.civicyouth.org/quick/youth_voting.htm - 28k
And that was when the young people were voting against Bush…this time they will be voting for Obama.
The writing is on the wall. You might want to learn to read. I can’t wait for the day after election day. Needless to say, there are going to be more than a few “deleted-off topic” posts
Peace, Gaijin
27. Michael | March 12th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
I seem to remember almost the same donkey braying just before the 2004 election with “war hero” Kerry a sure bet to win. But he didn’t. So the next bray was “we was robbed” and then came the “evil campaign tactics like “swift boating.” All of which were the donkeys way of denying the nose in front of their faces. They even had an Obama-like tidal wave who was unstoppable until the famous “Yeeaarrrggghh!” Time will tell. The irony is that the Clintons stopped Al Bore, J. “F’n” Kerry, and they will stop Obama one way or another. Should be fun after the donkey party blows up at the convention and spends valuable time and resources trying to repair the damage in the party while losing most black votes and many moderates who hate these trainwrecks. I can’t wait.
28. SEW | March 12th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00204
“I’m sorry, are you talking about Obama or John McCain? Let’s see, who put their name on Comprehensive Immigration Reform? Oh yeah, McCain and Bush along with Kennedy were behind that one. Nice try though!” Gaijin
McCain not voting, Snakeoilsalesman yea.
29. Pete_Bondurant | March 12th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Hey Joe,
McCain is already polling ahead of both Obama and Clinton in Michigan. That and the fact that Michigan’s economy is in the toilet and the Democrats running the state have done nothing about it, bodes well for McCain.
Sorry Joeyboy, but NH is McCain country. McCain is also polling ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania.
If McCain puts Pawlenty on the ticket, he takes Minnesota.
Here you go Joe:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/michigan_2008_presidential_election
30. SEW | March 12th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Hey Pete, But Barry is for Hope, Peace and Change. Details are on his website. And Sunny says he has a nice smile.
31. Pete_Bondurant | March 12th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Yes SEW, I know. Obama is the messiah . I wonder if the mayor of Detroit is endorsing Obama.
Usually the Republican candidate is about 12 points down at this stage in an election year. Not this year though. McCain is virtually tied with both donkeys and that is before the mess that will be in both Florida and Michigan.
Poor old Joe. His party is gong to lose….again….1972 all over again.