Someone Send an Ambulance to the DNC!
March 21st, 2008 at 12:00pm Mark Noonan
Cause this is going to cause a couple heart attacks:
The lengthy Democratic primary contest bodes well for Republican chances of holding the White House, a new poll suggests.
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters — at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary — aren’t committed to the party’s ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
On the other hand, this does nothing for we GOPers because we’re not dumb enough to assume that a March poll will hold true in November…Democrats, on the other hand, are dumb enough to believe that a polls taken even a year before the election prove they have already won. Anyways, here is the actual poll (PDF) - its a fairly small sample, but it is just a poll of Pennsylvania, so it probably does a good job of reflecting the view of Pennsylvania Democrats this week…
On a larger level, one does wonder just how the long term slugging match will affect the November results - its just a natural that the longer a fight goes on, the more intensely the strong partisans on each side feel about it, and the more disappointed they’ll be if their candidate doesn’t win. This might not translate so much into McCain votes, but it may very well translate into non-voting. The trick for Hillary and Obama - and its a mighty hard one - is to figure out how to win convincingly (so there’s no question about the legitimacy of the nomination) whie at the same time keeping enough ties to the other side to bridge the gap for November. One of the larger problems in this is the fact that by the time the Democrats finalise their nominee, that person will only have a limited time to heal divisions prior to the need to stretch out to the middle for the general election.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats
11 Comments
1. Obama2008 | March 21st, 2008 at 12:29 pm
If McCain were to actually win on a platform which ostensibly continues the Bush legacy of failure and incompetence while Americans overwhelming disapprove of same, shame on America.
I would not wear a lapel flag pin either.
2. Jonathan | March 21st, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Wait a tick.
You keep insisting that the polls are useless, yet, you gloat about how this could boast well for the Republicans….
I understand now: polls are great….so as long they lean your way.
Thanks for the clarification.
3. Mark Noonan | March 21st, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Jonathan,
Did you read it?
The very next time you try to claim that I’m dishonest, you’re outta here for good.
4. Michael | March 21st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
First remove the judgmental language and then examine the premise:
If McCain were to actually win on a platform that ostensibly continues the Bush legacy while Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of same,
I have not heard McCain state his intention to continue the Bush “legacy” whatever that might be. He often disagreed with President Bush on many issues including how the Iraq war was being fought so I don’t think there’s much chance of him doing what President Bush might do. He does believe on not surrendering in Iraq, but so do a majority of Americans. The second part of the premise is that McCain could be elected even though the majority of Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of “same” which I take to mean this nebulous “legacy.” If it were true that McCain would follow in the “legacy” then how would it be possible for an disapproving majority to elect him? That kills the premise right there. But if McCain does not intend to follow the “legacy” then we have the situation where the majority of Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of what President Bush is doing. But President Bush is not running so why would that opinion affect McCain? Again the premise is busted. So the conclusion:
shame on America.
Makes no sense. First it makes no sense because the premise is no good and second, if America choses a president using democratic processes wherein lies the shame.
Second, the rally song of leftists is already “Blame America first” I would assume that the sentiment “shame on America” is already embedded in their thinking so this would be nothing but more boring repetition of that sentiment.
Perhaps you should seek counseling from Michelle Obama since she seems to somehow finally figured out how to be proud of her country. And stop watching those YouTube videos of Rev. Wright, they will have you saying, “God Damn America.”
5. Rich | March 21st, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Where are all the libs from yesterday’s open threads? I seem to recall a whole bunch of them demanding how I knew Obama’s people would vote for McCain over Clinton, and Clinton’s would vote for McCain over Obama. I had very solid arguments. Now here is the data. Joe was one of the main ones. Any comments? Oh and Obamabot2008, you have been crowing for the past month because barack was doing so well in the polling. Still singing the same tune about how important polling is at the moment or will you take a less cut and dry approach now that the Golden Boy is fading. Well, off to do some typical white guy stuff.
6. phnx | March 21st, 2008 at 10:20 pm
I doubt that the 20% figure will hold, but if its just half of that the Dems are in big trouble in November. And our neighborhood trolls want us to believe that its all hugs and kisses in their camp.
BBwwwahahahahahahaha!!!!
7. Diana Powe | March 22nd, 2008 at 1:21 am
Okay, so in order to remove the big red flashing arrow that reads “Judgmental Language” and is pointing at the phrase “surrendering in Iraq” all you have to do is link to the national poll that has asked Americans if they want to “surrender in Iraq”. That should be easy enough, right, because you wouldn’t want to do something you just criticized someone else for doing, would you?
8. Diana Powe | March 22nd, 2008 at 1:23 am
phnx,
You are just really silly. No, really. Could you type your mad scientist laugh again? Please?
9. Diana Powe | March 22nd, 2008 at 1:42 am
Of course, the Democrats are unlikely to be the ones holding the economic anvil:
While at the same time, the presumptive Republican nominee, speaking of economics says this, “The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should. I’ve got Greenspan’s book.” Uh oh.
10. phnx | March 22nd, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Diana,
You’ve got it wrong.
BBwwwahahahahahahaha! is
is equivalent of ROTFLMAO
MMMMmuuuhhhhhhahaha!
Is the mad scientist laugh.
That’s the one I’ll be using just before I vote in the Dem primary in PA. But since you have no sense of humor its not surprising that you wouldn’t recognize either.
11. Sean | April 16th, 2008 at 8:58 am
If you’re tired of waiting around for those super delegates to make a decision already, go to http://www.lobbydelegates.com and push them to support Clinton or Obama
If you haven’t done so yet, please write a message to each of your state’s superdelegates at http://www.lobbydelegates.com
It takes a moment, but what’s a few minutes now worth to get Obama in office?!
Sending a note to current Obama supporters lets them know it’s appreciated, sending a note to current Clinton supporters can hopefully sway
them to change their vote to Obama, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Obama. It’s that easy…
Clinton Supporters
It takes a moment, but what’s a few minutes now worth to get Clinton in office?!
Sending a note to current Clinton supporters lets them know it’s appreciated, sending a note to current Obama supporters can hopefully sway
them to change their vote to Clinton, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Clinton. It’s that easy…
we’ll make it REALLY easy and include a list of names, addresses, and affiliations of superdelegates from each state including your state.