Catholics and 2008
March 30th, 2008 at 09:06am Mark Noonan
Interesting report on a Pew Survey:
In a profile of America’s Catholic population, released in advance of Pope Benedict’s visit to the US, the Pew Forum calls attention to a demographic shift, with younger Catholics less likely to remain active in the Church, while Hispanic immigrants replace many of the “cradle Catholics” who no longer practice the faith.
“No other major faith in the U.S. has experienced greater net losses over the last few decades as a result of changes in religious affiliation than the Catholic Church,” the Pew report notes. Citing the extensive survey undertaken for the “Religious Landscape Survey” that was released earlier this month, the Pew Forum explains that “roughly one-third of those who were raised Catholic have left the church, and approximately one-in-ten American adults are former Catholics.”
Only 41% of self-identified adult Catholics attend Mass each week, the Pew study found. That number is lowest among young adults, with just 30% of Catholics aged 18- 29 attending Mass weekly (by comparison, the figure is 63% among those over the age of 65)– a figure that suggests still greater decline in the number of active Catholics in coming years.
Despite the wholesale exodus of “cradle Catholics,” the Catholic proportion of America’s overall population has remains constant, thanks to the large number of Catholic immigrants, primarily from Mexico. Hispanics now account for 29% of the Catholics in the US, and nearly half of those under the age of 40.
The Pew profile confirm that Catholics compose a crucial political constituency. But the survey also shows a sharp distinction between the Catholics who attend Mass regularly and those who are not active. Thus for example, among Catholics who attend Mass weekly, 60% say that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances; among those who do not go to Mass regularly the figure is 29%.
From my experience as a Catholic, that would all be correct - that there has been a major loss in the number of Catholics and that there is a major split between devout Catholics and more nominal Catholics (humorously, but also quite seriously, our Pastor reminded the extra large congregation on Easter Sunday that we do, indeed, do this every week and everyone is welcome to attend on a regular basis).
As for American politics, this makes for a tricky task for the parties- Catholics are a major voting bloc but there are Catholics, and then there are Catholics, as it were. In some areas, Catholics are not too different from the dying, mainline Protestant denominations - weak in theology and thus liberal/left in viewpoint. Elsewhere, Catholics are as enthused as one can wish for the faith. So, which Catholics to you want? You can run as a lefty and gain Catholic votes; you can run as a conservative and gain Catholic votes. Not only that, you can run as a lefty and even get some consevative Catholic votes - mostly in the hispanic community…but, even then, it depends on just how you run your lefty campaign (hint: don’t emphasize lefty views on gay marriage and abortion when you are speaking to the congregation at Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary Catholic Church in Albuquerque, NM…not that they won’t love you and be nice, but it might not be the best means of getting an enthusiastic voting response). For both parties, it will be a question of how to maximise Catholic turnout in their favor.
As it stands, the GOP holds the advantage here - but not entirely. Hispanic voters are likely to vote Democrat on economic issues, as poor immigrants and their immediate descendents have done since time out of mind in America, but they can also be poached by a well run GOP outreach program. Hispanic Catholics aside, the divisions between Catholics, left and right, give each party a shot at the prize, but even the most liberal Catholic can listen favorably to a conservative message, and vice versa (Catholics are hard to pin down…most simply will not vote for a pro-abortion candidate, but quite a few will vote for an otherwise big spending liberal who is either nominally pro-life, or very much downplays his pro-choice views; meanwhile, most Catholics are not thrilled with rich, corporate boss-types, but will listen to a message from such if that person emphasizes his desire for an end to abortion plus, say, tuition tax credits for primary education). It will be interesting to see how each party squares the circle, and which one comes out with the majority of Catholic votes - and thus, very likely, the White House.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
15 Comments
1. ViralNexus | March 30th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Mark, I would like for you to tell a Protestant that they are weak on theology- my guess is that they wouldn’t take it to lightly. I think people tend to forget that the largest Catholic population in the world are Hispanics. Central and South America are the two places where the Catholic faith has not faultered since being introduced by the Spanish. So it doesn’t suprise me that the Catholic church goers in America are increasingly Hispanic. It does however suprise me that no matter what you are posting about you are able to somehow bring politics into it. Your hate for the left is astounding at best. Bravo.
2. congressive | March 30th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Bienvenidos a “Blogs Para Victoria!”
Suck it up. It’s the future according to McCain.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that…
3. Casper | March 30th, 2008 at 11:14 am
In summery Catholics could end of voting for anybody.
4. FmrMarine | March 30th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The term Catholic means universal.
The term protestant simply means some who protested the popes authority.
BOTH are the same “RELIGION” just some issues on who has the final authority on church matters.
5. Mark Noonan | March 30th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Casper,
To a large degree, that is correct - while very conservative Catholics are very likely to vote McCain and very liberal Catholics to vote HillBama, there is a large swing element in the Catholic vote…especially if one considers that had Kerry just done as well as Democrats did in the past with Catholics, we might very well be figuring out who is the best GOPer to beat President Kerry in his run for re-election.
6. Casper | March 30th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Mark,
I grew up Catholic, and while I still consider myself a Christian, I haven’t haven’t attended a Catholic church on a regular basis for some time (I have attended another church). My family overall is still pretty strong Catholic and I have been thinking about going back.
7. Mark Noonan | March 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Viral,
I’m sorry that I pointed out the obviouis to you - but the mainline Protestant denominations agree with me, not you, on my assessment. Have you checked out the message they preach, lately?
8. Mark Noonan | March 30th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Casper,
Come on home - I did, after being away for decades. Still learning, still re-connecting with the faith, but now it is such an integral part of my life that I can’t imagine again being separated from it.
9. jerry | March 30th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKL3068682420080330
Here is a little interesting fact that is not surprising, Mark Steyn probably has a boner over this one. I think most Catholics probably will vote for McCain in this election. Not only because of his conservative views but because of McCain’s traditional backstory, war hero etc.. Catholics like tradition.
10. Christian Wright | March 30th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Deleted - off topic.
11. js | March 30th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
do this in memory of me
is this why we come together in church, to repeat this every sunday?
where two or three are gathered together in my name, i am in the midst of them
when is it better, to only gather on sunday, or everyday? to continually pray is what we are told by Paul, that is what a Christian does
we sit to eat, to break our bread and share it, is not sharing and charity the body of Christ meant to be shared with all men, not just in Catholic Churches? and to share our wine, the fruit of the vine that sustains our body, like the fruit of the vine that sustains our spirit as the blood of Christ when his Holy Spirit has descended upon us, that we may give utterance before all men that Jesus IS Lord?
what is the church…..what we have created in our own minds, but not on the Rock that founded it?
12. Freedom1 | March 31st, 2008 at 12:55 am
This is ominous (and predictable)…
1) Muslims More Numerous Than Catholics
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKL3068682420080330
2) (BRITAIN) City Driver Halts Bus to Pray - The Sun.co.uk
13. js | March 31st, 2008 at 7:58 am
2 Timothy 4:3-4 - - For the time will come when they will not endure sound doctrine; but after their own lusts shall they heap to themselves teachers, having itching ears; and they shall turn away their ears from the truth, and shall be turned unto fables.
2Th 2:3 - Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition;
14. Freedom1 | March 31st, 2008 at 9:48 pm
13. js | March 31st, 2008 at 7:58 am
Yes.
15. Jeff Rivera | April 22nd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
My name is Jeff Rivera. I am an author and motivational speaker. I’ve also created a an online spiritual community website called, www.PrayerCircleOnline.com.
I’d like to submit a great article which could easily be turned into a syndicated column for your site. The article is called, “What are you telling the Universe?” Can you tell me what email address I should send it to?
Warm Regards,
Jeff Rivera