Barone’s Projections
March 31st, 2008 at 06:05am Matt Margolis
Michael Barone gives us some interesting scenarios for the Democrat primary race… Be sure to read the whole thing.
UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Question for the morning - are the moves by the Democratic leadership to force Hillary out of the race a reflection of their conviction that Obama has won, or their fear that if Obama doesn’t get the nomination, their vote total will collapse in November?
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats
10 Comments
1. Christian Wright | March 31st, 2008 at 7:52 am
The math is against Clinton.
Obama won.
The only way Clinton could pull this off is if she used her political clout to turn the super delegates. But her campaign has caused the super delegates to turn against her. She is in a no-win situation.
It does look like she wants McCain to win the White House so she can say, “I told you so.” That seems to be the only reason she is trashing Obama.
Let’s face it, Obama is the man. He is Abraham Lincoln and MLK rolled into one.
2. Aaron | March 31st, 2008 at 10:30 am
I read Michael Barone’s piece yesterday. It is a very good measure of just how desperately the wingers want it to be Hillary. Barone et al have built their entire careers on obsessing over the Clintons - hell, the Right has built an entire industry on it.
The wingnut chattering class can’t fathom that it won’t be Hill, and thus invent the most ridiculously convoluted scenarios and laughably twisted math to keep the hope alive that she’ll be the next president. That Hillary will win Montana and S Dakota by 40 and 30 points respectively, when she has lost all of the surrounding states by land-slides, is rather absurd. Ditto all of the other 30 point margins poor Mr Barone counts as something other than utter delusion.
Meanwhile, back in the real universe… she’s toast. Sorry wingnuts - you’ll have to find some other reason for being other than circulating breathless tales of how Hillary killed Vince Foster. Now, get back to gasping over your Jeremiah Wright videos.
3. Almiranta | March 31st, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Aaron, you do have quite the vision of conservatives, don’t you? Your knee-jerk vitriol makes you a perfect little footsoldier for the rabid Left.
But you are really just making my points for me—that Obamamania is really just another groupie phenomonon, based on emotion rather than fact.
I personally don’t like Rush’s efforts to influence the Dem choice mechanism. Just to get that on the record….
I think Hillary would be a harder candidate to beat, because she is smarter than Obama, a much better campaigner, and has a lot more experience than he does. I think that if Hillary were to be elected, she would be able to get a lot more done than Obama would ever be able to do, because she understands how the system works, understands what has to be done to get legislation passed, and has the contacts and connections in DC. This would make her a stronger candidate once we get past the nomination process.
So I have no vested interest in seeing Hillary nominated.
But I simply can’t sit back and see Obama not only crowned but beatified without commenting on his glaring shortcomings.
We’ve all known people who cruised through school, getting straight A’s while we struggled and crammed before every test, who effortlessly seemed to dominate whatever field they chose. Obama strikes me as one of these. Smart, good-looking, affable, charming, glib—and never seriouslsy challenged.
He has honed his speaking skills to become a very effective preacher-like speaker, one of those who makes poliitical speeches in the style and manner of an old tent revival preacher, and it has been very effective for him, gaining him the near-hysterical emotional response that has catapulted him into the national spotlight and may even get him the nomination.
But the question is, how far will that BMOC talent get him when he is tossed out of the warm, supportive, non-threatening pool of adoring groupies and into the cold, harsh, ocean of old-time political sharks? Not just American old-timers but international leaders, thugs like Castro and Chavez who will chew him up and spit him out when he tries that frat-boy buddy-buddy stuff on them.
I see Obama as President being essentially impotent, unable to get his pet legislation passed because the Senators and Representatives needed to get that done are too pragmatic, and have to answer directly to the folks back home. And the “folks back home” might get suckered in by his big promises but when it comes to actually voting to implement them they are going to see the flaws in his efforts to just keep stripping asssets from the most productive of Americans to fund a bunch of pie-in-the-sky socialist programs.
The only two powers the President has, other than the veto power, are the powers to run a war and to name justices. If Obama appeases the radical Leftwing which would be responsible for getting him into office by pulling our troops out of Iraq, the resulting bloodbath and drastically increased instability in the Middle East would sink him. He can name his judicial activists, hoping to get even more corruption of the Constitutuion by getting more legislation done from the bench instead of in the voting booth, and that’s about all.
I don’t see Obama being very electable. Once he stops fighting with Hillary, which is a personal thing because their actual agendas are pretty much interchangable, and he has to start arguing on the basis of real issues, I think his shallowness and vapidity will become even more apparent.
But what bothers me is the feeling that the campaign will become even nastier, even more vicious and virulent, because of the absolute HYSTERIA among Obama fantatics, and their conviction that their passion and conviction that they are right will excuse any level of dishonesty or personal attack on his opponents.
4. SteaM | March 31st, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Almiranta,
Ok, we get it. You don’t “see” anything postive in terms of President Barack Obama.
We get it.
5. congressive | March 31st, 2008 at 1:30 pm
I know it’s OT, but there’s a coup going on right under our noses that I know you oppose. The US Treasury is being privatized by Paulson and the Bush administration:
From AP News: “It would give the Fed authority to demand that all financial system participants supply it with full information on their activities and grant the Fed a right to collaborate with other regulators in setting rules for their behavior.”
This, as Mark put it, IS A BAD IDEA!
The US Treasury is being torpedoed under a supposedly conservative administration.
The “Fed” is not the US Government, it’s a private corporation holding foreign investments with astonishing governmental privileges already.
If you don’t believe me, believe this: Barney Frank thinks it’s a good idea.
Please write your congresscritter!
6. GOP4ME | March 31st, 2008 at 1:32 pm
SteaM,
See Almiranta’s post is an actual, well thought out missive (regardless of one’s agreement or disagreement with the intent). A post very different from the ones put forth by the cut and paste brigade from the left we suffer through on a daily basis.
And your well thought reply?
Ooops, that’s right there isn’t one. As usual…
7. SteaM | March 31st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
GOP4ME,
Did you just stumble upon evidence of Barack’s racist statements he supposedely made? Or maybe you found some crimes he was convicted of while he was Illinois State Senator?
8. Aaron | March 31st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Almitanta -
“…because she [Hillary] is smarter than Obama, a much better campaigner, and has a lot more experience than he does.”
Smarter and a much better campaigner? LOL! Right. That must be why she - a household name for over 16 years with the strongest political machine around - is getting beat by a relative newcomer with a funny name. Because she’s smarter and a much better campaigner. Care to rethink that one, Almy?
“Obama strikes me as one of these. Smart, good-looking, affable, charming, glib—and never seriouslsy challenged.”
Right. Obama has never been seriously challenged. Because being raised as a black kid by a white single mom of modest means gives you so many natural advantages in life. And going up against the Clinton political machine and winning means he’s never been tested.
Yep, Obama’s path in life has been smooth sailing all the way - unlike all those tremendously difficult obstacles GW Bush had to overcome in his life as the playboy son of a super-rich former President.
“But the question is, how far will that BMOC talent get him when he is tossed out of the warm, supportive, non-threatening pool of adoring groupies and into the cold, harsh, ocean of old-time political sharks? Not just American old-timers but international leaders, thugs like Castro and Chavez who will chew him up and spit him out when he tries that frat-boy buddy-buddy stuff on them.”
I don’t know how you can write this with a straight face, and at the same time be a supporter of GW Bush - because what you write pretty much describes Bush to a tee, while bearing no resemblance to Obama. Barack is probably one of the most accessible candidates there is - his enormous crowds are not filtered for only people who support him. Meanwhile, President Bush almost never appears before a group unless they are hand-picked Bush loyalists.
When was the last time Bush appeared before a crowd that weren’t carefully filtered? Oh yeah - when he threw out the first pitch last night and was heavily booed. And when was the last time Bush took unscripted questions from an audience? Barack does that almost every day.
And this bit about “frat-boy buddy-buddy stuff” perfectly describes Bush’s approach to politics and foreign policy. Yeah, Bush naively looked into Putin’s eyes and “saw his soul” while they enjoyed a BBQ together down at Bush’s ranch. What examples do you have of Obama being “frat-boy buddy-buddy”? Obama may advocate having frank discussions with adversaries, but I don’t think you’ll be seeing him sharing a beer and a basket of Buffalo wings with the likes of a snake like Putin.
“But what bothers me is the feeling that the campaign will become even nastier, even more vicious and virulent, because of the absolute HYSTERIA among Obama fantatics, and their conviction that their passion and conviction that they are right will excuse any level of dishonesty or personal attack on his opponents.”
Gee, thanks for your concern, Almy. Of course, you have examples of Obama actually engaging in “dishonest and personal attacks on his opponents” - right? Your whole post doesn’t just amount to crap you’ve regurgitated from wingnut radio - right? You actually have verifiable examples - right?
9. FmrMarine | March 31st, 2008 at 5:52 pm
steambath
Your tired MORONIC statements day after day “show me the statements” ya de ya are beyond ignorant.
You full well know if this were another candidate he or she would be toast.
A 20 year relationship with wright, and an intimate, and active MEMBERSHIP in this organization does not distance him from their beliefs.
Any more than sammy the bull distance from the mafia by stating, no one heard me admit to murder.
berry husein obama was an active participant of this cult. That makes him part and party to their beliefs.
10. Sunny | April 2nd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Aaron | March 31st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Great post Aaron. Ranty thinks she is the last word in what makes Senator Obama the man he is, yet I doubt seriously that she has ever bothered to read his books, to attend an obama rally or to examine what his life was like growing up. He never had the wealth to get him into the finest universities in this country, but he went anyway - on his own abilities. And graduated with honors. Yep, I would say that he got by on his good looks, ability to speak like a preacher and his frat boy buddy buddy contacts. What fraternity do you think he belonged?
The truth of the matter is that the right wingers cannot stand it that there isn’t someone like Barack Obama in the Republican Party. If only they could attact that kind of talent and ability. Instead, they got the real frat boy buddy buddy guy, George W. Bush to defend. The guy that cannot speak in complete sentences.
Ranty, your hysteria is showing. This man is so dumb and inexperienced that his campaign has raised more money than any other presidential camgaign in the history of this country, his crowds outnumber any of those in the past, he has run against the Clinton machine and managed to still be in the race to say nothing of the fact he has probably run the best campaign in the history of this country. But, hey, he just doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to make decision for this country - but GW Bush did a bang up job is doing so!