Put Those White House Drapery Measurements on Hold, Democrats
May 3rd, 2008 at 05:58am Mark Noonan
Things aren’t going, perhaps, as well as you planned:
The headline on latest national Gallup tracking poll is that Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama in a hypothetical matchup by six percentage points (48%-42%) and leads Hillary Rodham Clinton by only one (46%-45%).
Gallup writes: Although both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to combat Clinton’s assertion to superdelegates that she would be the more electable of the two candidates in November.
The nomination race between the two Democrats is a statistical tie for the 9th straight day, 48%-46% with Clinton leading.
Usual Poll Disclaimer: Its a poll, people - at best, it is a snapshot of how things are today, but it can’t predict how things will be on November 4th. If you’re going to bet money on the strength of a poll done in May for an event to happen in November, then you’d be better off just saving the time and trouble and putting your cash into a shredder.
Still, it must be said that Democrats cannot be pleased by such poll results. This year the political stars have all alligned in favor of the Democrats - rocky economy (though signs are increasing that talk of recession was overblown); unpopular war; unpopular incombant; attempt at a third consecutive term for the party in power; general dissatisfaction with the way things are. Democrats who were puffing up their chests a couple months ago predicting a blow out election were, even then, fooling themselves - forgetting that a great deal of their victory in 2006 was the result of 3 million or so less GOPers showing up at the polls, rather than a general surge of pro-Democratic voting - but those Democrats who expressed the opinion that 2008 looked good for them were only dealing in cold, hard reality. Or, at least, what appeared to be such.
Its been my opinion all along that the Democrats - at the national level - have a very high hill to climb. Absent a Johnson/Goldwater sort of race (which is highly unlikely), Democrats have a very difficult time getting a majority of electoral votes. A lot of things have to go exactly right for them in order for their to be a Democrat in the White House. In 2008, it looked like everything might fall into place - and then the Democratic race disinitegrated into a battle of the political ciphers. Now, as Hillary and Obama trash each other while John McCain gets to act Presidential, things are changing in the race.
As of now, the Democrats still have the clear advantage - money, enthusiasm and the aforementioned political stars still work well for the Democrats, but not nearly as well as they worked in January. The key for Democrats is to end the primary contest immediately and set about healing the intra-party divisions; the key for we GOPers is to capitalise on Democratic dissaray by both presenting ourselves as the responsible alternative (it helps that we actually are such a thing), as well as hitting both Hillary and Obama essentially with the stuff they’ve been hitting themselves with over the past couple months (can’t blame us for using their own words against them, now can they?).
The GOP can win this race: and that, in and of itself, is a stunning commentary on the utter degeneration of the Democratic party all too enthralled to the political left.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
26 Comments
1. OperationChaos | May 3rd, 2008 at 6:24 am
Historically speaking, the GOP should not even be close, so this is encouraging. However, it is a poll–a shapshot in time–and there’s a long time between now and November.
Carville and Bechel were right when they said that, and I paraphrase, that the Dems should win this easily, but if anyone could screw it up, they could.
In a way, I’d like to see Hill beaten by Earbama, ’cause I’m tired of seeing Slicky the Sleazeball on TV. However, with Earbama, we get a man who lies about his association with scumbags and racist preachers, and who doesn’t know a lick about taxes or the “economah.”
And who’d wanna listen to his wife and her negative message for 4-8 years?
It’s a lose-lose situation…
2. Pacjones | May 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 am
Unless the Repugs are going to bore the electorate with more of the Wright or Bosnia stories we know quite a bit about Senators Obama and Clinton.
Except for some flip flops and the preference for a 100 year war, voters have yet to scratch the surface in understanding McCain. He can run from Bush but he can’t hide.
3. test » Blog Archive&hellip | May 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 am
[…] Those White House Drapery Measurements on Hold, Democrats mike wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptThe headline on latest national […]
4. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 8:14 am
If Barry can eat his waffles , smoke in private and not answer questions it might be a contest. He will also need to avoid the evil ABC and evil George Stephanopoulos.
5. phnx | May 3rd, 2008 at 8:14 am
The good news about this is that the Dems have collectively spent over $400 million dollars educating the electorate about their plans. McCain has spent about $4.26. Despite the disparity in spending McCain seems to be running strong against either one.
6. Obama » Put Those W&hellip | May 3rd, 2008 at 8:17 am
[…] Ce que je vois … wrote an interesting post today on Put Those White House Drapery Measurements on Hold, DemocratsHere’s a quick excerpt…both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to… […]
7. My new WordPress MU Site &hellip | May 3rd, 2008 at 8:25 am
[…] mike wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptThe headline on latest national Gallup tracking poll is that Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama in a hypothetical matchup by six percentage points (48%-42%) and leads Hillary Rodham Clinton by only one (46%-45%). … […]
8. OperationChaos | May 3rd, 2008 at 9:10 am
Except for some flip flops and the preference for a 100 year war, voters have yet to scratch the surface in understanding McCain. He can run from Bush but he can’t hide.
Well, dumbarse, McCain didn’t advocate a 100-year war. Another quote taken out of context by the kool-aid crowd. And it’s funny how you kooks can’t run against McCain alone–you have to lump him in with Bush. That reveals a lot about how weak both of your candidates are.
Kool-aid, kool-aid, tastes great. Doesn’t it, Pac?
9. OperationChaos | May 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 am
Despite the disparity in spending McCain seems to be running strong against either one.
That’s because brainwashing is expensive. Have you noticed, phnx, how much more dumbed-down the Donkaroach electorate have become? It’s far worse than in 2000 or 2004. Earbama and Hitlery go after the dummies–people who have trouble thinking for themselves.
People like Pac…
10. js | May 3rd, 2008 at 9:33 am
i was checking out the “biased” web site over at Judicial Watch (aye, the stooges called it biased they did!!) and they are investigating a benefit held in England for McCain, because the location was donated by a foreign national….its gets to burn folks when we see all the news services…how they only push pro-liberal propoganda and fail to balance thier stance for both parties…..the Democrats secure a significant advantage through the press, which almost exclusively presents material based on thier freedom of the press, to the several states they serve….and forget to provide serious programing for the other party…so if anyone really wants to do something smart….start sending Judicial Watch emails every weak documented the failure of the press to provide equal access and programing toward the political parties..because they fail to employ columnists and reporters that would provide equal coverage and equal opportunity to the public to elect nominee’s based on all of the information that is available, instead of a biased view, violating both the ethics of journalism and the laws that require they provide for equal access to the airwaves….by refusing to provide balanced content, they are literally providing free political donations to the liberal party….press agencies owned by powerful men who force thier bias against conservative values and against political parties in the press should be held responsible for thier failure to provide the due and equal service to the paying public…otherwise its no better than the last russian election where the state maneuvered to shut down all of the media that did not support the party that supported Putin….
so when CNN takes to the airwaves with 90% of its political arm endorsing the DNC, its a donation in kind for that political party….
11. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am
The best is yet to come. Karl Rove has made proper arrangements for an economic boom this summer and gas prices will be below $3 by September. The Dems will continue their power grab through the convention, Michigan and Florida will continue to be disenfranchised by DemocratICs. And MO and BO will continue to display their inner thoughts about whitey.
Thanks again Karl Rove. How is the lawsuit filed by the Plame’s coming? Special thanks to Barry also, who on March 18 in one of the greatest speeches in history stated he could not renounce his pastor, then on April 29 said YES, yes I can, and threw his crazy a under the bus! So a very special thanks to Barry as well.
12. Bill Eischeidt | May 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
1. OperationChaos | May 3rd, 2008 at 6:24 am
Actually they should be close OC because 29% of the people who vote are called Independents aka Swing voters and generally affiliate with core issues and current concerns like the economy in 2008. If you add the right’s loyalists with about half of the Indies you get McCain right where he is now in most polls. The election will come down to Michigan, Ohio and there is only one candidate running that can sweep all of them as is needed and that is Hillary Rodham Clinton. If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee all you have to do is wake up on Election Day and do what comes natural and it will appear to be a McCain landslide by Midnight. By then I’ll be more interested in who’s at the top of the AFC North.
2. Pacjones | May 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 am
If the economy has turned it will be easier for McCain if it hasn’t nobody will care about how many missions he flew in Vietnam or any other flag waving marketing campaign he comes up with. In a race against HRC, McCain needs to not have to talk about the economy which is his weakest point.
5. phnx | May 3rd, 2008 at 8:14 am
The question isn’t how much the DNC has spent but how much more they’ll get before the August convention. By 4 July you should know if the GOP money guys are going to sit on their hands or not.
8. OperationChaos | May 3rd, 2008 at 9:10 am
But he did cast a wide net that he thinks a Korea solution is likely for Iraq. if there is one thing that Iraq isn’t is Korea in 1953. Iraq is fractured historically along religious and cultural lines, it is recovering from a brutal dicatorship that was a minority government, it has a weak central government that has bucked democratic reform in favor of traditional back room dealing and there is comabt level violence on the streets in a nation rife with firearms.
None of these things applied to Korea when the cease fire was called.
10. js | May 3rd, 2008 at 9:33 am
“Any Free Press would rather have liberal government than conservative censorship.”– Pain.
11. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am
Karl Rove has made proper arrangements for an economic boom this summer and gas prices will be below $3 by September.
I would really like to know how that works. And also how much can I get in for taking the bet that gasoline in the United States [regular national average from EIA] is still over USD 3 per gallon on 1 September 2008? I’ve got a solid ounce of silver burning a hole in my hand wanting to seek another.
Q:And if Rove can control gas prices why did he let them go so high in the first place? Sounds like some neocon wet dream to me.
13. John Ryan | May 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Anybody who wants to put their money on the Republicans winning the White House in 2008 should go to Intrade.com they can get good odds on that much better than the liberals can get.
14. Thrower | May 3rd, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Three words for Republicans; pray for Hillary. McCain beats her because she antagonizes a segment of the black population who will either vote McCain or sit it out. The Clintons are done and good riddance.
Obama will still beat McCain with generous help from the 527s who are watching McCain while the media is not. Moreover he will bring in a new segment of voters, and enough people will vote their economic interests to render traditional Republican wedge issues ineffective.
I just gassed up my Chevy S-10 an hour ago and paid $64. A youngish mom with a Ford Exhibition full of kids was next to me. Her “partial” fill-up stopped at $100 as that was obviously her pre-determined limit. People will get that reminder of failed economic policy every week between now and November and will be as unhappy about it as I am.
The gas tax holidays proposed by Clinton and McCain are laughable. She offsets it with a windfall profits tax that Bush will veto. He blows up the deficit some more. If there is indeed a functional oil market and supply is not increased, the tax holiday will increase demand which will drive prices back up. Less revenue for government, more profits for oil companies and no long-term change in prices. Credit to Obama for declining to pander on this one.
15. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“and supply is not increased”
“that reminder of failed economic policy” Thrower
And thrower is blaming Republicans? And Obama will increase supply? Failed economic policy? Answer, raise taxes and more government?
Speaking of laughable.
16. Thrower | May 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
I don’t respect either party SEW, primarily because both sell out to multinational corporate interests in exchange for lifetime employment (in or out of government). Both do a lousy job of advancing the interests of Americans.
Unless we periodically throw the bums out, we risk having a government of politicians who are openly contemptuous of us. It’s time for the Republicans to go for awhile and it’s too bad. Much of their philosophy is attractive, if only they governed by it.
17. Mark Noonan | May 3rd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Thrower,
Obama, however, has a problem in traditional Democratic constituencies who will be open to a McCain pitch for their votes…its very dicey either way you go.
As for gas prices - if they are $3 in November after being $4 in August, people will be feeling better about it…its all a matter of degree and immediacy.
18. Bill Eischeidt | May 3rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Taking all comers on $3 gasoline in November as well. Go to nymex.com or ino.com and check the June 2009 futures and then let’s have an ideology free talk about energy prices.
If McCain wins and the recession has deepened into the 3rd Quarter of 2009 nobody will care that he was a war hero or wore a flag pin or said the pledge or even didn’t have a firebrand preacher at his church because you can’t put partisanship in your gas tank.
19. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Bill, Please explain. A recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of negative numbers. Quarter 1 was positive. So how might a recession that hasn’t begun except in liberal minds DEEPEN into the 3rd quarter? Now that is partianship .
20. jerry | May 3rd, 2008 at 7:02 pm
The thing about McCain doing so well now, is that for the last six weeks or so he has not had anybody attacking him on a daily basis and yet he has flatlined at around 45-48%. When either Hillary or Barack are the nominee and are hammering McCain and tying him to Bush on the war, the economy, energy, healthcare etc. his war hero status will only be worth so much. Also, when he debates either Hillary or Barack his limited grasp of policy will hurt him. “The surge is working” mantra doesn’t answer all the questions he needs to answer.
21. Bill Eischeidt | May 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 pm
19. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
A little reading with understanding. I stated if the recession has deepened by Q3 2009 there will be a more severe political fallout for the party in power and that might not be something that even the rigth wing can spin to its advantage. Its economics being its cyclical self and the way commodities are inching higher if yoy guys had any sense you would actually be rooting for the Democrats to win.
22. SEW | May 3rd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
You stated “If McCain wins and the recession has deepened into the 3rd Quarter of 2009″ not if McCain wins and if the recession has deepened. Either way, there is no recession, and still not possible to call it recession until AFTER the 3rd quarter, not before, if at all.
I would not go so far as to root for imminent disaster, that makes no sense whatsoever, but it would only last 4 years.
23. js | May 3rd, 2008 at 11:55 pm
“Any Free Press would rather have liberal government than conservative censorship.”– Pain.
What a sack of poo you provide on journalism….
“I believe that the public journal is a public trust; that all connected with it are, to the full measure of their responsibility, trustees for the public; that acceptance of a lesser service than the public service is betrayal of this trust. ”
Walter Williams
24. js | May 4th, 2008 at 12:05 am
anyone who thinks that the oil companies will miss out on profit has an dependence on taxes at the pump is either too stupid to see the real truth or just a democrat….
25. Bill Eischeidt | May 4th, 2008 at 7:30 am
“A sack of poo,” really js? Well try this one on for size since we’re quoting about the voice of liberty that is a Free Press.
“Which is more precious to Mankind, the Truth or the truth as seen through their lens of what allows them to be perceived as powerful?”–Pain
and
“A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant and the crazy crazier.”– H.L. Mencken
26. js | May 4th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
lol…
dost ignorance beget ignorance, and pettiness beget pettiness…none rise from the squalor of the pig stye…for want of not being a pig…and what hast lies to do with the truth….that naught makes the truth what it is not…yes….a sack of poo…exactly
that tree you are selling us has bad fruit…and remember…you dont get good fruit from a bad tree….nor does a good tree give bad fruit….so no matter how hard you try…you cant change the truth….its beyond your ability….