11 Comments

• 1. Cavalor Epthith, Esquire, D.S.V.J.  |  June 15th, 2008 at 5:04 pm

  ” . . . for Nevada’s must-win five electoral votes.”

  Oh, bloody please. If Nevada is a must win then America is in far more trouble as a nation that they can ever get out of by the power of the ballot box. By the very Fates man! What of North Dakota and Wyoming then? Are they not “pivotal?”

• 2. Mark Noonan  |  June 15th, 2008 at 5:41 pm

  Cavalor,

  North Dakota and Wyoming are states 99.9999% certain to go for McCain…Nevada is a Battleground State won narrowly by President Bush in 2000 and 2004 (11.5k more votes for Gore in 2000 and Florida be damned, Gore is President); 2008 promises to be a close race, and it may very well some down to Nevada’s five electoral votes; so, yes, this is a pivotal State, and you’ll see both candidates expending resources here.

• 3. Carlton Pryor, Lead Economist, TED-OG  |  June 15th, 2008 at 5:53 pm

  2. Mark Noonan | June 15th, 2008 at 5:41 pm

  Not make predictions but this will not be a close election one way or anothwer. All the nominal trends we see tell us that this will not be a nail biter as many pundits like to say. it will be a blowout and a clear mandate one way or the other.

  By the first week of August it will become terribly clear who will win this election and the vote itself will be nothing more than a formality of process.

  Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina New Jersey, Florida and Ohio will win the election for either candidate. Nevada will not matter in the end.

• 4. Cavalor Epthith, Esquire, D.S.V.J.  |  June 15th, 2008 at 5:54 pm

  When economists are clearer headed than pundits you know the times they are a changin’!

• 5. Casper  |  June 15th, 2008 at 6:31 pm

  “North Dakota and Wyoming are states 99.9999% certain to go for McCain”

  I can’t speak for North Dakota, but I would drop the chances of Wyoming going for McCain down to 80 or 90% certain. We have a Democrat as governor and the Democrats missed taking the House by less than a thousand votes in 2006. I would bet even money that they get the House seat this time around. We also have a lot of Libertarians, who might go for Barr. The last poll I saw had McCain leading 53-40, which is up 5 points for Obama, but down 1 for McCain. A lot can happen between election.

• 6. Jonathan  |  June 15th, 2008 at 6:41 pm

  After massive effort, he’s still trailing McCain for Nevada’s must-win five electoral votes.

  Mark, he’s trailing McCain 44% - 42%. And it’s only June. He’s got five months to make up for lost ground.

• 7. Vicodin-N-Cocoa  |  June 16th, 2008 at 1:18 am

  Mr Noonan: With regard to your quote of 0.000001 @ .999999 re Obama in (seperately) ND and WY, as we REAL free-marketeers say “Done. I’m hitting it for $10 each.”

  I wil not require that you post to escrow. I know your word is bond.

  I will happily post the $20 to the ESCROW (not B4V) of your choice.

  Making sure here that I have your terms right: I buy 999,999 Obama WIN ND contracts for $0.000001 per and 999,999 Obama WIN WY for same $0.000001.

  I am assuming you meant in USD, but AUD, CAD, EEU, Swissy all acceptable to me.

  Pleasure doing business with you, sir. Have a pleasant evening.

  Please let me know when you will have confirm ready so that I may give you courier details. A scanned version via email is also fine. If you wish me to post my 10 units of any of above currencies to escrow, please also send bank details.

  Yours sincerely.

  VNC

• 8. Mark Noonan  |  June 16th, 2008 at 2:10 am

  Vicodin,

  No, nothing as panty-waist as that…I’d hardly clear anything on a win. You’ll have to offer stronger inducement before I’ll go through the hassle of taking your money (which, by the way, would be donated to Missionaries of the Poor, a fine charity that all you guys out there should start shovelling money over to on a regular basis ’cause these are some really great guys doing the really hard work of charity).

• 9. Vicodin-N-Cocoa  |  June 16th, 2008 at 3:55 am

  Ah, so you do understand value betting then.

  If so, you owe it to your readers not to bulls**t them with numbers. Or don’t offer such extreme effing opinions.

  That changes nothing, however, with regard to your market. I have lifted your offers.

  Now, on to this “panty-waist” comment. AGAIN WITH THIS STUFF? For what? You’re not a tough guy. I’m a little guy and I’d hurt you in a brawl. Don’t aggress on me in that way when you cannot follow through. How do I know? Because I’ve gotten the tar beaten out of me before and I know what my limits are. You are just playing at this. Don’t write checks with your mouth you’re ass can’t cash. Let’s be real here. And let’s be NICE.

  If you want a different proposition on top of this one at even odds or anywhere in the inteval from say -600 to +600, offer it up. I’ll play for however much or little you like. Offer me something observable in an event or capital market or any observable random variable. Or let’s discuss heads-up play at any game of skill we’re both comfotable with.

  Like gentlemen. Doesn’t that sound better than “panty-waist”?

  I’m doing nothing for charity, buddy. You win, I pay YOU and you do whatever you like with it. I win, you pay me.

• 10. Pain  |  June 16th, 2008 at 5:49 am

  9. Vicodin-N-Cocoa | June 16th, 2008 at 3:55 am

  Esto va a ser un día muy interesante.

• 11. FmrMarine  |  June 16th, 2008 at 7:54 pm

  vico

  >>>Like gentlemen. Doesn’t that sound better than “panty-waist”?<<<<

  Panty waist???? BWWWAAAA HA HA HA!
  so the homo wears panties??? LOL ROTFLMAO!
  vico sure is proud of all the little boys he has had sex with…….PANTIES???? NOW we all know why.

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