Don’t Sweat The Newsweek Poll
June 20th, 2008 at 06:14pm Matt Margolis
Not that our readers are the ones to trust Newsweek, but really, don’t worry about that new Newsweek poll that claim Obama has a 15-point lead over McCain… which Newsweek reports under the headline “Barack’s Bounce.”
The only “bounce” in that poll is the number of Democrats sampled.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats
23 Comments
1. Canuckguy | June 20th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Do you have a nice hat to eat after B.O. wins the presidential election?
2. amused observer | June 20th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
why would you not include more democrats? the number of people identifying as democrats has gone up and in this season has become much higher than the number identifying as republican. sampling equal numbers would skew the results.
3. Doug | June 20th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
23% of the sample were Republicans? Now that is amusing mr. observer. Heck, I live in a solid blue state and the last poll I saw had 33% of registered voters consider themselves Republicans. The polling should have about 6-7 point spread in favor of the number of Democrats polled (note that number is less when they do ‘likely voters’), however Obama’s rag magazine went with a 15-point spread - that’s either real shoddy or a blatant attempt at skewing numbers to get the story they wanted.
4. Vicodin-N-Cocoa | June 20th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
The poll is what it is. A snapshot in time given the questions they chose to ask and the sample pool they drew from. It means nothing.
What is meaningful is that Obama is the superior candidate with better ideas, IN MY OPINION. I don’t have to be right about that but I’m close to certain that I am.
I can’t vote anyway. I’ll be a foreign citizen sometime in ‘09 and am now a permanent foreign resident.
Your problem with McCain is that he’s offering Carlton Fiorina as his economics guru and Obama’s offering Alan Blinder.
Your worse problem is that folks like you and me are more like each other than we are like the American electorate even though we disagree. We are paying attention. The average American voter is going to base this on who’s better looking physically. Just like American Idol.
5. neocon | June 20th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Vicodin,
Obama is the better candidate if you embrace socialist ideas. Some do, but many don’t, including me. That’s my opinion.
American did not become the most poweful and richest nation on the planet through socialist programs. America became the leader through our free markets, capitalism and individual freedoms.
We have now learned that Obama is far from a “different” kind of candidate having clearly revealed himself as just another corrupt Chicago Pol with a far left message.
It won’t play well in the genral as most Americans believe America to be a benevolent country. And that America has given to the world far more than it has ever received and we continue to lead the efforts in grief stricken areas around the globe. And yet too many people are quick to blame the US for all of the worlds ills completely overlooking the generosity of this nation.
So I don’t think Obamas racism, negativity and socialist policies will play well in November.
6. Mark Noonan | June 20th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Newsweek did this all through 2004 - I wonder what they really hope to accomplish? But I also find it odd that even the Fox poll shows that high a number of Donks…best bet on my part is that self-ID’d voters would break about 37/32/31 D/R/I, which means that even the Fox poll is over-stating Democrats (and slightly oversampling GOPers, too).
The demographics of the polling will be very important this year - keep an eye out for the breakdown by ID, but also note such things as “likely” and “registered” voters, and pay not the slightest attention to any poll of “adults”.
7. Mark Noonan | June 20th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
neocon,
What it will come down to, in my view, is whether or not Obama and his Democrats are able to convince the American people that McCain is evil - in spite of all this “hope and change” nonsense from the Democrats, they know they’ve got an uber-liberal who simply will not play well outside the left…so, they’ve got to make people hate McCain more than they worry about Obama’s inexperience and leftism. This is the playbook the Democrats developed in California, and they are now going to try it out on a national level.
8. Vicodin-N-Cocoa | June 20th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Neocon: I agree with you 100% about capitalism, individual freedom and free-markets. I have no desire to tell you what to do with your money or your body or what you can and cannot buy. Including guns. I am for FAIRTAX. I am not a socialist.
I just don’t see any socialism in anything Obama’s saying or any votes he’s made in the Senate.
You and I would probably be friends under different circumstances.
The issue is War. This is a pro-War, pro-National Security State blog. I am anti-War and find the National Security State too intrusive into American’s personal freedom. That’s the only area of disagreement between us.
9. neocon | June 20th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
I am too anti-war. But I don’t back down from a fight and in my opinion, radical Islam has been at war with the west beginning in the 70’s. They grew in size and ferocity, under the radar for decades because of every-ones fear and denial. Radical Islam is not the problem of Bush, or conservatives, it’s a problem of the entire western civilized world. They have attempted to impose their will on nearly every continent and if they are not confronted, they will not relent. This is proven.
The far majority of people in the Islamic world are peaceful people, but they too have been held hostage to this cancer. Remember, radical Islam has killed far more of their own fellow Muslims than any others.
Well, they have been confronted, and in a big way and the tide is slowly changing. And the argument that it has taken too long is just naive considering we are dealing with a society of people that have been warring for centuries. But now the vast majority of peaceful Iraqi’s are starting to have the confidence that we will finish the job and the ISF forces are starting to prove that we can.
Sometimes you gotta fight vicodin
but I’d like to party with ya
peace, neocon
10. Rana Quijotesca | June 20th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
You know… according to other studies, Obama is the 40th most liberal senator. In fact, the National Journal has criticized its own rankings before (the 2004 one of John Kerry). McCain, on the other hand, voted with Bush 95% of the time… hardly the centrist–pretty much a rubber stamp… He’s not the maverick he might have been able to paint himself as in 2000.
On the Post… a poll is a poll, and most polls are crap–has been my opinion from the beginning.
11. Vicodin-N-Cocoa | June 20th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Neo-con: No disagreement that radical Islam must be defeated. It’s a very dangerous ideology. So is radical Christianity. There are a lot of dangers in the world, though. Economic danger is at hand with nothing whatsoever to do with Al-Qaida or with Pat Robertson. I don’t believe that Iraq is the best place to fight radical Islam though. I think Pakistan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia would have been better targets.
I don’t care for communism either. A good place to start would be to make China float its currency.
I take my partying more seriously than I do my politics. If you like pretty woman getting wasted and having a good time, hang out with me and I’ll sort you out. Anytime, buddy. Open invite to you. I respect everyone who takes the time to study the issues, ahs a strong opinion and defends it even if he disagrees with me.
Peace, indeed.
12. The New Conservative | June 20th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
I knew the first time I saw that poll it was a sham. Thanks for pointing out why it was a sham.
http://thenewconservatives.blogspot.com/
13. Jeremiah | June 20th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Vicodin-de-cola
Well, indeed some thinkers are just that, they think but don’t realize what they’re thinking. To think that radical islam will ever go away that’s wishful to say the least.
Islam doesn’t need to be defeated, but the Judeao, Christian message of the gospel of Jesus Christ must be proclaimed in all its Love of God thru His only Son. “For God so loved the world that He gave his only begotten son that whosoever believeth in him, should not perish but have everlasting life.” john 3:16 (NT, kjv)
The ideology of Bill Clinton was “its the economy stupid” … well, i have a better answer than that.
The problem is that sin is in the world and people nmeed Jesus Christ who is the Only way to heaven. And the message and salvation offered thru Jesus Christ is the only redeeming qualities and aspects of what the gospel is truly about. There is no other way to heaven. Jesus said, “I am the way, the truth and the life, and no man cometh unto the father, except thru me.” get that?
thru me. that means Jesus and Him alone.
There is no other gospel message under heaven wherebys man can be saved.”
And Paul told the Romans, “for all have sinned and come short of the glory of God.” All, that was me indeed, as least I was one of the all, and I needed salvation thru Jesus and I don’t know about every body else, but I do know what Jesus done for me and I have found that peace that passes all understanding. Do we fight Islam, do we fight all the radicals in the world, I don’t think so, we proclaim a message that brings salvation and that is thru Jesus Christ and Him alone.”
Peace, you bet you can have peace, but not thru the alcohol, drugs or cool-aid drinking.
Peace my friend.!!
14. Vicodin-N-Cocoa | June 21st, 2008 at 2:11 am
Jeremiah: Drugs, alcohol, sex, food, Jesus, sports, television, golf, politics…it’s all the same. Something to distract for a few minutes from the knowledge of our own mortality.
You pick yours. I’ll pick mine. I don’t need to be saved.
15. OpChaosUK | June 21st, 2008 at 2:33 am
that’s either real shoddy or a blatant attempt at skewing numbers to get the story they wanted.
Shoddy, no. Blatant, yes. I think it’s called “push-polling.” Left-leaning groups like Newsweek use it all the time. It discourages the dumbed-down from voting.
What is meaningful is that Obama is the superior candidate with better ideas, IN MY OPINION. I don’t have to be right about that but I’m close to certain that I am.
Good thing you added the caveat. Obama’s no different than a McGovern or a Carter. He wants to disarm our nukes because he thinks if we do, everyone else will. He wants to raise the capital gains tax “to make it fair.”
Obama is the most naive candidate in my lifetime, and the scary thing is, he may become president!
Oh well, we made our bed…
16. OpChaosUK | June 21st, 2008 at 2:47 am
The average American voter is going to base this on who’s better looking physically. Just like American Idol.
Have to agree with you here–it’s all part of the dumbed-down nature of many American voters. Of course, it dosen’t help that many Donkaroach pundits are touting McCain’s age as a disadvantage.
No disagreement that radical Islam must be defeated. It’s a very dangerous ideology. So is radical Christianity.
Uh-oh, kook alert! Just when I thought you had free-thinkin capabilities, you compare radical Islam with “radical” Christianity. What’s the ratio of terrorist attacks been in the past, say, 40 years or so? And don’t try the same tired “McVeigh/Rudolph” argument either. Is their a Christian caliphate going on that we don’t know about?
You need to curtail your partying and womanizing; it’s affected your brain. Get checked for sypihllis; I hear it causes insanity…
17. OpChaosUK | June 21st, 2008 at 2:50 am
…so, they’ve got to make people hate McCain more than they worry about Obama’s inexperience and leftism.
Same as in 2004, Mark. They tried this on Bush, and it almost worked. Obama and Kerry are cut from the same leftist, elitist mold; there’s not a shred of difference in the two. However, Obama has the edge; he’s got tradition on his side, and there’s all this white guilt floating around.
18. H L Mencken | June 21st, 2008 at 4:56 am
13. Jeremiah | June 20th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Exactly what does this have to do with the Newsweek poll?
“Before you start worrying about planting acres in Iowa you need to be able to grow tomatoes in your own back yard in Baltimore,” I was always told.
I know you are a big time religious kid and all of that but you know what that’s all smoke and mirrors. If the stuff had been around when I was living I would have called religion, “duct tape for the mind and radiator sealer for the Soul.” People need things to fill the holes that get shot in them over the course of their lives and organized religion is one of the biggest hole plugs you can buy.
Let the man have his way and his truth because it’s his life. Proselytizing is a matter of profit not piety and that’s where you Bible Thumpers went wrong. No message is obvious and there is no One True Path to Paradise there is only the life you get to live and how well you treat the people you know and don’t know. If you have any ethics and no religion you can live a pretty decent life, live love, raise a family and retire knowing you’ve done the best you can. if you have no ethics and plenty of religion you can live, hate, marry, divorce, marry again hate the kids you had with the other women and grow old still seeking that one true thing Billy Sunday always said was in the “gardens of paradise.”
It’s a sucker’s play my friend but where you live right now is a place of free will like where I live is a place where you pay your BILL. If you put half the time you have on your hands actually living the life of a Believer rather than the dress up dolls life of a religious Christian you’d be a much happier fellow and you’d find that your wounds would heal quicker.
But I don’t have to tell you that; you know that already.
19. Sarah Bloch | June 21st, 2008 at 5:14 am
15. OpChaosUK | June 21st, 2008 at 2:33 am
Push polling left wing? Funny. Was that the leftists that called voters in South Carolina about Cindy McCain’s “black daughter?” The push polls Huckabee’s campaign used against Romney and Mormonism were leftist tricks too.
That’s all you guys parrot is McGovern and Carter over and over. The maybe McCain is another Hoover; or worse another Bush!
And on the religion thing don’t be stupid there are people that would void most of the US Constitution to live by “biblical rules.” Jeremiah for example is not the freak you really think he is. There are millions of white fundamentalists in America that think the words in the Bible should be the law of the land. I don’t have to go anywhere near Eric Rudolph or Tim McVeigh to get to that. The only reason you guys are so up in arms about Islam is because you are like the bully in the playground that finally got punched in the nose by the nerds you have been riding for half a semester. Now with your nose bleeding you know that you aren’t going to die but it hurts like Hell.
You might not like the reasons the US was attacked but they are the reasons men and women are willing to die for their beliefs from Morocco to Indonesia. Historically this is a broad and sweeping statement. There is no Christian Caliphate and that is the dumbest thing I have ever heard a white man say. Wow push two major fear buttons at once, “Christianity under attack!” and “Islamofascism!” at the same time. This stuff is wearying to the American people and that is another reason Obama is ahead of McCain and that is because they are sick of the soft police state.
But there’s hope for a Bush third term! The American people despite all their gun talk and their desire to bear arms to defend themselves are mostly a nation of people with money who cannot defend themselves, people with money who cannot defend themselves and the ex combat soldiers, hunters and criminals who actually can use a firearm to defend themselves. That said, McCain will win if there is a terror attack in the US before the election. My poll of who people would vote for if there were a terror attack between now and the November election is 56% McCain 44% Obama. If that gets to 2/3 McCain you can expect to see something in America blow up and the MSM to cover it like a pair of stretch jeans on Anna Nicole Smith’s ass.
20. Vicodin-N-Cocoa | June 21st, 2008 at 12:51 pm
OP CHAOS UK:
I will absolutely NOT stop my partying and womanizing. I had a check up not long ago and I know I’m free of any STDs, so you’ll have to find another explanation for my viewpoint than syphillis. Besides, I know what the symptoms of syphillis are and I’d just go over to the doctor, get a shot in my ass, and get on my way.
There’s been an awful lot of destruction wrought by radical Christianity, son: the Crusades, the Spanish Inquisition, the dictatorial rule of the Holy Roman Empire (in Germany), and Nazi Germany to name but a few.
McVeigh and Nichols are hardly the problem. In fact, I have a lot less problem understanding the motivations of the White Separatist and Militia Movement than I do today’s Republican Party. For what it’s worth, I think that Janet Reno should have been disciplined after Waco and fired after Ruby Ridge. I am a very big believer in personal freedom and a light touch by law enforcement. People ought to be able to live any way they like within the law. When I lived in the states, I had no contact with White Separatists and they had none with me. Republicans enacted laws which adversely affected me in a material way.
What I dislike about the Republican Party is that it combines the worst of White Separtist views with sophisticated marketing and media-friendly wrapper and thus is in position to interfere with everyone’s life who disagrees with them. I don’t love the White Separatist’s views, but I don’t begrudge them their views and appreciate that they had no desire to cause me any problems. McVeigh, Nichols and Rudolph were psychopathic exceptions.
Do you like taking your shoes off before boarding a plane because some Rastafarian dildo had a firecracker in his shoe in England?
Please.
21. OpChaosUK | June 22nd, 2008 at 5:09 am
There’s been an awful lot of destruction wrought by radical Christianity, son: the Crusades, the Spanish Inquisition, the dictatorial rule of the Holy Roman Empire (in Germany), and Nazi Germany to name but a few.
Now come on, wanker! You’re comparing 14th- Century behaviour to CURRENT radical Islam? This is the same tactic used by all you kooks. You’re no different than the rest of those who pollute this blog with their hate-Bush, hate-America crap. Heck, you’re probably one of them, with a changed nic so as to appear new.
Republicans enacted laws which adversely affected me in a material way.
Examples?
Do you like taking your shoes off before boarding a plane because some Rastafarian dildo had a firecracker in his shoe in England?
Sooooo, Richard Reed is locked up in Super-Max for a firecracker? Please…
22. Magnum Serpentine | June 22nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
CNN also has a good poll
Obama 57%
team McBush 35%
next
23. Truth is Right | June 22nd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
OpChaosUK
There’s alot of wolves in sheeps clothing. Alot of things are said and done and accused of being done in the light and name of christianity. But failing to understand what christianity is bring to light a whole new arena of ideologies.
Jesus brought about a religion that has revolutionized and turned the world upside down DL Moody an 1800s minister, said, Give me ten holy spirit filled men and I will turn Chicago upside down.
Down thru the ages many christians have been accused of doing things that men and women of evil consciences have done. Was it in the name of Christianity? Maybe so, but you need to understand that christianity comes from the name Christian, and Jesus Christ came to redeem and save those that are lost. HIs message has been p
roclaimed and spread throughout the world and millions have come to know Jesus Christ as their personal saviour. Its called the Church and people are born into it., thru the Shed blood of Jesus Christ and Not thru any man made institution. Its done thru faith in God Almighty the Father of Jesus Christ.
But evil people have distorted the christian message and christians have been torn asunder, burnt alive, dipped in oil, shot in the back of the head by evil people and then we’re accused of doing evil things in the name of Christianity. But Jesus knows his Own and they know Jesus.
But of course for those who not know the truth then they will never understand this message of Jesus Christ which is, “I came not to condemn the world but that the world might be saved”. You see Jesus said this, not me, and Jesus Christ is God Himself, born incarnate in the flesh, born in a lowly estate, in a manger amonst stinking animal manure, not in a mansion (He very well could have), but Jesus said, “My kingdom is not of this world, but its within you.” Who’s you? Radical Christianity,? I think not. He was speaking of all those born again thru belief in Jesus Christ. They are redeemed, placed in the church body, and Jesus is the head of that body, and Praise be to God for His unsearchable riches.
So to compare “radical” christianity, to religious factions, why not call it Radical Muslim Religion, or Radical Buddah,… You see Jesus Christ’s message and his people are attacked over and over by satanic forces, but we will press against the gates of hell and Gods people will be the victors, “Praise the Lord” David said, “the battles not mine,” And those you call radical are those who do not know Jesus Christ they do not know God Almighty the God of abraham, Isaac and the God of Jacob, but they are of their father the devil.