Can Obama Win the White Vote?
June 30th, 2008 at 01:23am Mark Noonan
For all the talk of how the black vote or Hispanic vote might go, not much talk is expended on the white vote - but it will be at least 70% of all voters, so its going to matter, as Peter Brown notes:
It is more than a little ironic that it has taken the first African-American to win a major party presidential nomination to make clear to everyone what has been the case for more than 40 years in presidential elections: Democrats have a problem with white voters.
Suddenly, the topic du jour on television and radio talk shows, at water coolers and the most exclusive cocktail parties is how well Sen. Barack Obama can do among whites, especially the demographic group pundits call the “white working class.”
The truth is these voters have been around for decades. They’re “The Silent Majority,” “Jill and Joe Six-Pack” and “Reagan Democrats,” and whatever the name, they have given Democratic presidential candidates the back of their hands since 1964. That was the year Lyndon Johnson won in one of the biggest landslides in American history, and any demographic group he did not carry probably held its meetings in a telephone booth.
Neither Jimmy Carter nor Bill Clinton, the last Democrats to occupy the Oval Office since then, won a majority of white voters. Mr. Clinton came relatively close in 1996 and might have done so in 1992 had Ross Perot not been in the race. But focusing on those near misses overlooks the larger point: Sen. Obama, the son of a white mother and black father, could lose this election badly and still outdo the very pale — Sen. George McGovern in 1972, former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988 and possibly Sen. John Kerry in 2004 – among white voters.
Such discussion as there has been on the subject of white voters revolves around the tired argument of whether whites have gotten enough past their racism (something inherent to white people, according to one of the more ironic leftwing opinions) to vote for Obama - but as Brown points out, the fact that Obama is a liberal and weak on national security might be far more important to his weakness amongst white voters than the fact of his skin color.
Right now, the only reason Obama has a shot is because President Bush and the GOP are so very unpopular - if President Bush’s approval rating were even 45% right now, this election would be in the bag for McCain; but its not, so Obama is ahead and still has to be considered the inside favorite to win in November. But, in the end, will the American people - forget about race - vote for someone as unqualified as Obama when he is also on the extreme end of the American left? That is the question we’ll answer in November - and while liberals are convinced that President Bush’s unpopularity will carry Obama over the finish line no matter what, I am of the opinion that Obama is as high as he’s going to get in the polls based on his now-fading aura of change and President Bush’s unpopularity. To get to a majority of the vote, Obama is going to have to show - to voters who distrust the left intensely - that he will be there man, or at least enough of there man to convince working class whites to vote for the liberal egghead over the American war hero.
It can be done, but it won’t be easy - and thus I see the November election being excruciatingly close, all else being equal from this moment in time.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Racial Issues, Republicans
21 Comments
1. Jack | June 30th, 2008 at 1:35 am
Obama will fall because Americans will learn the whole truth about him at http://www.obamasecrets.weebly.com.
2. My new WordPress MU Site &hellip | June 30th, 2008 at 2:12 am
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3. test » Blog Archive&hellip | June 30th, 2008 at 2:29 am
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4. Magnum Serpentine | June 30th, 2008 at 6:23 am
georges approval rating of 18 percent is not the only reason why the citizens will vote for Obama in the fall…. Here are the other reasons just to refresh your memory:
You forget that george is the worse president in the history of the United States in his actions, in his deeds,
“The constitution is just a piece of paper,” george, 2001. Remember that?
. You forget that the Citizens are tired of war talk, The citizens do not want a war with Iran even if Iran had 100,000 nuclear weapons. We remember the obstructionist republics blocked a bill to bring health care to children. The republics said it was too expensive (30 billion over 10 years) yet the republics turned around and approved 165 billion for the next 6 months of the dismal george war in Iraq. we remember the secret energy meeting between dick, george and big wig, big profit, big greed big oil in 2001 in which george promised the big wig big profit big greed big oil companies that he would get gas to 3-4 bucks a gallon by 2008. We remember how george handled the Hurricane and how the george administration blamed george’s disastrous handling of the hurricane on the democratic party. we remember that scattering the democratics who use to live in Louisiana is why there is a republic governor in Louisiana now. george, where are the wmd? yeal right, Obama doesn’t have a chance, Give me a break!
The citizens will never forget.
Anyone who runs against the republic party and george’s surrogate and puppet team McBush has a better chance of winning. Just say no, to a third term for team McBush.
5. Danish Artist | June 30th, 2008 at 6:39 am
Magnum Stupidity,
You list only reasons to vote against Bush (Bush is not running) or as you say (another liberal talking point) team McBush.
But, you give no reasons to VOTE FOR Barak Hussein Obama. No platform (something other than the slogan, change), no proven experience, no specific goals (something other than nationalizing or socializing healthcare and the oil industry, taxing the rich, etc. etc., more social bs) NO NOTHING!
Why is that? Can’t you list specifically what you know? Don’t say go to the website, but state what you know in your own words.
6. neocon | June 30th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Mags,
I am actually starting to worry a little about your fragile state of mind. It appears BDS has now spread throughout that feminine little frame of yours and is impairing your judgement.
Two suggestions:
1. Join the Christian theocracy. We meet at Cheneys place in Wyoming.
2. Start posting at the pitchfork. There, your delusional monologues will be received as intelligent, objective thought.
Your choice
have a nice day
peace, neocon
7. Fredrick Schwartz | June 30th, 2008 at 10:15 am
The real question is can McCain?
8. John Ryan | June 30th, 2008 at 11:52 am
BDS does exist in fact it has now spread to 70%+ of the population
In 2006 the Republicans won 51% of the white vote if Obama does as well the Republicans will again lose BIG
9. Conservatives Suck | June 30th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
You conservatives are delusional fucknoids who have raped america. Hope you are happy.
10. '08ama | June 30th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Yes, Obama can win the ‘white vote’, no doubt.
11. Kahn | June 30th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
CS, Hey um - I’ve seen you post similar statements in a few strings now - cool.
Can you have your dad send me the video of me and your mom? And tell him next time, yes I’ll let him slurp up the mess?
Thanks loads.
12. Kahn | June 30th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
I especially like Obamas plan of stopping all alternative energy, making oil companies drill for oil where there isn’t any, stopping them from drilling where there is oil, screwing up our trade agreement with our two biggest oil sources, and taxing oil companies. I see this as a brave new approach.
Magic is not a real energy so0urce, at least I didn’t think it was.
13. FmrMarine | June 30th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Kahn;
Earbama = 1/2 white
McCain = 100% white
hmmm i think ill use my “white vote” for the 100% white guy!
14. chuckasaurus | June 30th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Danish….he can’t name anything Obama has done, will do, or can do. Nobody else can either.
15. chuckasaurus | June 30th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
This is too funny:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Vc41dq9Z7VM
16. 40+ Yrs Since Dems Got W Vote | June 30th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
When Obama fails to get the White vote, don’t sell us all short by calling us racists. Democrats have not got a majority of white votes in the past 40+ years. Not Jimmy Carter, John Kerry, Bill Clinton, Walter Mondale, etc.
17. Kahn | June 30th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
I couldn’t care less about Obamas half black color. It’s the Marxism.
It’s the Marxism.
Oh, and the anti-energy agenda that includes no solar, no wind, no hydro, no nuclear, no coal, and no oil. I have yet to see a car run on magic or hope.
18. Sadly, No! » From M&hellip | July 1st, 2008 at 1:19 am
[...] to Part II, the one that portends to be smarter and with more citations. A positive cadence like: Can Obama Win the White Vote? June 30th, 2008 at 01:23am Mark [...]
19. Tax the White | July 6th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Tax The Rich? Vote Obama!
The progressive tax system will finally come back into play under Obama. We will soak the rich and finally fulfill the fact that Democracy is the road to socialism. We will use their blood money to pay for national health care, to provide citizenship for 12,000,000 illegal’s, eliminate the use of fossil fuels, withdraw our U.S. military from nations so we can begin paying them reparations and then proceed to withdraw our evil bourgeois economic interests overseas.
Peace, Bread And Land my brothers and sisters. Vote Obama! Vote for socialism!?
20. js | July 6th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
one of the reasons so many factories are gone from the US to 3rd world nations is directly due to the excessive taxation by the demoncrats….they try to monopolize on unemployment….but its thier fault so many people are unemployed to start with…they want to ad more taxes now…to drive the costs of running businesses even higher…
or do you think people with a 7 digit income just picked all that money off tree’s…yes…they get taxed to the hilt….and business costs go up to pay for it….dont be stupid people…..raising taxes on the rich also is a direct tax on the economy…..
21. js | July 6th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
obama’s black supremacist friends are awful quite now…just watch how loud they get the closer to the election we get….thier hatred for whitey is too great to supress….