The Latest Polls
July 29th, 2008 at 05:41am Mark Noonan
According to Real Clear Politics show the race varying from an 8 point Obama lead, to a 4 point McCain lead. What does this mean?
That no one really has a clue what is going on out there.
I look at it like this - there are just too many variables out there. Will the youth vote show up? Will blue collar Democrats vote for Obama or McCain? Will movement conservatives show up for McCain? Will President Bush’s unpopularity drag down GOP participation? Will the Democrat Congress’ unpopularity drag down Democratic participation? Will victory in Iraq help/harm McCain/Obama? Will oil/gasoline prices help/harm Obama/McCain? Will liberal women show up for Obama? Will hispanics keep on track for the Democrats, or will McCain have appeal to them due to his immigration stance? The only thing we can say with any certainty is that African Americans will turn out in high numbers and will give a super-overwhelming majority of their votes to Obama (if McCain cracks 5% of the black vote it’ll be a bit of a shocker). With so many variables out there I’m not surprised that a respected pollster like Ramussen comes up with a three point Obama lead while respected pollster USA Today/Gallup comes up with a four point McCain lead. I really don’t suspect any bias in the pollsters (except any Newsweek poll - they are universally and amazingly biased in favor of the Democrats - I’ll trust a Carville poll before I’ll trust a Newsweek poll) - they just don’t know and are doing the best they can.
Its also July and while this election seems to have been going on forever, it really doesn’t kick into gear until after Labor Day…and the high test doesn’t come until after the World Series is over. Between now and then, there is just so much which can and will happen, that all I can do at this point is rate the election a complete toss up and thoroughly enjoy the most interesting political year I’ve ever seen.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Polls, Republicans
15 Comments
1. Blackandwhite | July 29th, 2008 at 7:30 am
Four more years! Four more years!
2. Blackandwhite | July 29th, 2008 at 7:39 am
McCain could now support Obama’s 16 month time table (cut and runner) and now says even Bush’s trickle down tax cuts are on the table. He is starting to sound like papa Bush looking for votes. Does the man not flip flop on any issue?
3. neocon | July 29th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Since Obama was completely wrong about surge:
“Obama was clearly opposed to the surge as he courted the Democrats’ anti-war base. “I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence,” he said in 2007. “In fact, I think it will do the reverse.”
I wonder why anyone would consider his current position to be accurate?
And incidentally, a moving 16 month timeline for withdrawal, irrespective to victory, defeat, or potential atrocities; is not a plan.
That’s like saying the Yankees will win the series, and in one of the next few years, you’ll have a good chance of being right.
4. '08ama | July 29th, 2008 at 9:17 am
You guys thought Reagan/Mondale was a landslide ?
You aint seen nuttin’ yet !
Obama will have this thing wrapped up before 9pm EST on election night.
count on it.
5. neocon | July 29th, 2008 at 9:22 am
“Obama will have this thing wrapped up before 9pm EST on election night.” - O8ama
The reality based community strikes again!
Monday, July 28, 2008 9:35 PM
A surprising poll released Monday confirms Sen. Barack Obama’s worst nightmare: he actually lost ground to Sen. John McCain after a global trip meant to buck up his sagging credentials in foreign and military policy.
The USA Today/Gallup poll has McCain leading Obama by four points, 49 percent to Obama’s 45 percent, among likely voters
6. navydad | July 29th, 2008 at 10:27 am
I’ll say it again. Obama is trying to claim “first to invent” status with the only two winning topics of his campaign.
First, the sixteen-month timeline for withdrawl-that is as vague as it can get-hasn’t fooled anyone here…I hope, and who didn’t think for a second, that if the conditions on the ground had gotten to the point where we could claim peace had broken out, that our forces wouldn’t be withdrawn? Fact is, THAT WAS THE PLAN ALL ALONG…DUHHH!! Throughout Obigear’s primary campaign, he continuously proclaimed that “he” would bring an end to the Iraq war…starting the first day he took office. But “when” was never stated. Nothing like an open-ended statement to cover your arse.
Second, Obigears and his surrogates are now proclaiming his brilliance towards a troop increase in Afghanistan….WOW again! What a brilliant and masterful plan! Am I deaf, or haven’t we been hearing for two-three years that we’d be increasing our presence in Afghanistan?? Are the Obigear’s voter so poorly informed that they truly believe this, or are they just plain individual political hacks? Either way, anyone that perpetuates the misnomer that Obigears is brilliant, is truly a moron.
Disclaimer: I also am not to fond of McCain either, so don’t think this is a political thing.
7. Kurt | July 29th, 2008 at 11:40 am
New Obama T-shirt: “My campaign went to 7 different countries and all I got was this lousy 4% deficit”
8. megapotamus | July 29th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Reagan and Nixon both demonstrate the weakness of media driven CW. It is time, though, to admit that Presidential elections just are not frequent enough or uniform enough to justify a statistical determinist viewpoint. The election has not even begun yet for 90% of the citizenry. Barry is only now being introduced to the country at large at the same time he is dumping his hard-left primary positions. Does he mean it now? Did he mean it then? No one can say. Does that matter? What about Clinton? Remember Clinton needed Ross Perot to win. Twice.
9. \'08ama | July 29th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
So, there are now at least 7 different countries who believe America can indeed elect a President with some BRAINS !
The world is just as relieved as America is, that Bush’s term is coming to a thankful close. The Frat Party Polictics are OVER, it’s time to get serious about our country’s problems.
McCain’s policies remind me of a rutterless ship in the high seas. We’ve had enough lack of vision for eight years now.
It’s time for an intelligent, articulate, well-educated, well-read, inspirational, uniting, caring, humble leader who sees a bright future for this country, not just war, blood and death for another hundred years, or more.
The great thing about this country is that no one administartion can destroy the will of the people or the power of our Constitution. Some have tried, but all have failed.
As we say ‘BUH-BYE!!’ to the worst leadership in the history of the human race, we can stand proud by our country because if we can recover from these disasterous Bush years, we can take on ANYTHING, ANYWHERE against ANYONE !!
God bless America !
10. hermie | July 29th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Obama…humble?
The only thing he can write about is himself, and his already acting like he has been elected is at the very least, extremely egocentric.
Yet, the Obammaniacs can’t point to ONE actual achievement Obama has done that could qualify him to be POTUS. It’s all projecting on their part. A thrill up the legs somehow outweighs actual accomplishment. A well-teleprompted speech outweighs any actual legislation. A photo-op trying to bask in the glory of other far-more qualified men outweighs sticking to principles.
11. navydad | July 29th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Anyone know what a “rutterless” ship is?
Or was obama08 referring to a “rudderless”ship?
I know this may seem picky 08, but how old are you and have you ever voted before?
My concern is that the youths in the US are being bamboozled by the left’s ability to distort the truth with propaganda that supports a socialist doctrine.
12. Carl Gordon | July 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Obama humble? Exactly. McCain disconnected? Without a doubt. Will it hurt Mickey’s chances? Absolutely. And he’s absurd to boot!
Unlike Sister Ann Daniel, or McCain’s handlers, Albert Camus developed the idea of the “absurd man”, the man who is periodically conscious of the ultimate futility of life living with nuns or Republicans, who, true to their chosen path (except the ones with nice big knockers), never got none. The lingering stench and memory of this realization forms a basis for perceptions without the unjustified infusion of meaning. This notion directly opposes the idea of faith which is characteristic of most scams and religions (and even of existentialism, which Camus therefore did not fully accept). The search for truth is seen as futile as gathering facts from Fox or getting the same answer from McCain twice in a row, as modes of perception are constantly changing due to fluctuation of their axioms, which may be discernible as a consistent set of beliefs directly conflicting with those once thought irrefutable. Drawing on numerous philosophical and literary sources, and particularly Dostoevsky (known locally in the neighborhood as a ponce), Camus describes the historical development of absurd awareness and concludes that Sisyphus, and in turn, Boosh, are the ultimate absurd heroes.
Camus presents his ceaseless and pointless toil as a metaphor for modern lives spent working at futile jobs in factories, offices, as pool cleaners, service personnel in the eyeglass department of a local cost warehouse, hairdressers, and college art professors. “The workman of today works every day in his life at the same tasks, and this fate is no less absurd. But it is tragic only at the rare moments when it becomes conscious.” And while Camus suggests that some things and situations (teenage girls gone wild?) are out of human control, Sartre proposes that everything can be manipulated and changed, regardless of the situation or individual, even a small furry mammal that likes to build water entrapment structures with the use of its long, ovate shaped tail.
13. phnx | July 30th, 2008 at 12:42 am
Obama is crushing McCain with all the Hosers from the GWN, and all the Euros. Only problem is that they can’t vote.
Obama is 9 pts ahead with all registered voters, including the typical no shows on election day. Spin this any way you want…but you leftists still can’t explain why the race is so close. How is it possible that McCain is 4 points ahead with likely voters? This does not bode well for you leftists or for B. Hussein.
14. cam | July 30th, 2008 at 12:54 am
Navydad,
Anyone can use spell check if they chose to.
Were is the connection between bad spelling and
“the youths in the US…………………. being bamboozled by the left’s ability to distort the truth with propaganda that supports a socialist doctrine.”
15. phnx | July 30th, 2008 at 12:58 am
Carl was your drivel part of a recent term paper?