Pennsylvania Poll: All Tied Up
September 16th, 2008 at 05:37am Mark Noonan
According to Rasmussen:
The race for Pennsylvania’s 21 Electoral College votes is tied.
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 47% of the vote (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members). Eighty-three percent (83%) of Obama voters are certain they will vote for him and not change their mind before Election Day. An identical percentage of McCain voters say the same thing.
A week ago, Obama was up by two points after holding five percentage-point leads in August and July.
The latest poll finds the Republican candidate is viewed more a bit more favorably among voters than his opponent. McCain is viewed favorably by 60%, up three points from a week ago. Obama’s ratings are at 52% favorable, down three points.
If McCain starts to pull ahead in Pennsylvania, he can start measuring for Oval Office drapes and Obama can start work on Volume Three of his autobiography, I Spent a Billion Dollars Running for President and all I Got Was a Lousy $20 Million Advance for This Book.
Seriously, though, Pennsylvania is that crucial for Obama - if he doesn’t win it, then that pretty much is all she wrote. There’s a chance Obama would be able to make up that 21 EV’s somewhere else, but such a thing would be the oddest of circumstances. Meanwhile, if McCain were to win Pennsylvania then he could lose Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico and still win the White House. Right now, smart money would still rate Pennsylvania as “leans Democrat”, given its long history of voting Democrat for President…but its also a strongly pro-life State with a lot of blue collar Democrats who have never been too enthused for Obama and who are, also, turning out to be more and more enthused for Palin.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats, Republicans
11 Comments
1. js | September 16th, 2008 at 7:31 am
this is easy now…
just wait for obama to open his mouth…
thats pretty well the way we will win this election.
2. DM | September 16th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Isn’t Pennsylvania where Obama started his “Bible holding, gun toting” line? Bet that resonates well.
Though the Democrats are still strong the momentum is swinging. Obama’s closet is slowly opening and people do not like what they see. Plus, the addition of Gov. Palin to the Republican ticket is re-energizing many from a broad spectrum. My bet is that the debates will be a defining moment and solidify the candidates in their position. If Obama stammers in the upcoming televised debates anything like he’s been reported doing before, he’s toast.
3. Rich | September 16th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Mark, is this poll on Pennsylvania or “New Pennsylvania”?
4. hermie | September 16th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Obama is likely counting on the usual Philadelphia 300% voter turnout.
5. phnx | September 16th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Even fast Eddie Rendell (D Gov. PA) is only giving Obama tepid support. I’m in the porcess of moving to a blue state, but I have postponed it long enough for my families votes to count in PA.
My daughter’s in laws have just moved from the Red state of Nebraska to the battle ground state of NH. The first thing they did was register to vote.
I can’t wait for November 5 and all the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the leftists.
6. kimberly4victory | September 16th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Here is Obama’s slogan:
Me First. Country Second. Democrat Party Third.
Earlier this month, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made a personal appeal to Barack Obama: Help me grow the Democrats’ Senate majority by sharing some of the $77 million you’ve got in the bank.
Obama’s campaign said no.
Although Democratic insiders say a better deal could still come, the Obama campaign so far has agreed only to let Senate Democrats use Obama’s name — as well as those of his wife and running mate — in mail and online fundraising pitches. The campaign has planned no joint fundraising events with House or Senate Democrats, and insiders say none is likely to be held before Election Day.
In rejecting a direct request from his Senate leader, Obama has put a fine point on the financial pressures he’s feeling as the presidential race turns toward the fall.
Obama raised a record-setting $66 million in August, leaving his campaign with about $77 million in cash now. Because he has turned down public financing, he can keep raising money through Election Day. John McCain, having accepted public financing, can’t do that — but he already has the $84 million in public money in his campaign coffers.
More importantly, McCain will get substantial help from the Republican National Committee — which has dramatically outraised its Democratic counterpart — and the Republican Party’s state and local committees.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13485.html
7. kimberly4victory | September 16th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Speaking of polls, everyone light a candle for Ed O’Reilly today. Wouldn’t that be a hoot if he defeated John Kerry?
8. hermie | September 16th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Obama stiffs Hillary, then he stiffs Reid. That’ll make friends .. won’t it Barry?
New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan; all thought to be ’safe’ for the Obamamessiah, are now in play. At the rate he is dropping in the polls, he has to scramble to spend millions of dollars just to keep up.
9. William of Orange | September 16th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
kimberly4victory, et al,
That is a surprising article. One assumes from the sheer volume of support Obama was receiving — especially through the last few months of the campaign — that he had an almost endless amount of cash. But the fact that he was down to his last $11 mill before/during August makes one wonder where did it all go?
It also calls into question his campaign’s ability to marshal its resources effectively. And, since he claims this as his “executive experience” does this not give us insight into his ability to do anything but tax (solicit donations) and spend (piss it all away)?
Somewhere, some folks are beginning to get the message that this zero is not only a vapid, slogan-spewing cypher, but an indifferent strategist and tactician, incapable of closing the deal.
Pathetic.
10. kimberly4victory | September 16th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Exactly, William. What do think, Casper?
Buh Bye, Montana …
Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama’s hopes for carrying Montana have diminished over the past few months, and Montanans say it comes down to one word: guns.
“In Montana, we like our guns. We like big guns. We like little guns. We like shotguns. We like pistols. Most of us own two or three guns. Gun control is hitting what you shoot at,” the state’s Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer told the New York Times in April. When asked why he thought the Democratic nominee would not win his state, he replied, “guns.”
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/16/gunning-for-victory-risky-for-obama/
11. kimberly4victory | September 16th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Is Obama abandoning Virginia?
I just got an email from Barack Obama’s campaign urging me to drive to Pennsylvania. The thing is… I live in Virginia. Virginia is supposed to be a swing state. They would rather have me knock on doors in Pennsylvania than Virginia? That sounds like they are abandoning Virginia.
http://www.thenextright.com/soren-dayton/is-obama-abandoning-virginia