The Washington Post-ABC poll comes out, liberals go bonkers with joy, MSMers report it as if its news…but those of us who know a bit about polling were expecting just what Steve Gill over at Pajamas Media reports:
But what the news outlets failed to report in their coverage about the Washington Post-ABC poll was the fact that 38% of the individuals who made up the poll identified themselves as Democrats, while only 28% identified themselves as Republicans… Not surprisingly, a poll of mostly Democrats revealed that most of them wanted Democrat Barack Obama to be president rather than Republican John McCain….
The poll tweaked the numbers in Obama’s favor in other ways as well. Even the so-called “independents” that comprised the poll were actually more partisan than independent. When asked towards which political party they “lean,” the independents who replied “Democrat” outnumbered those who responded “Republican” by an 18% margin! (See poll question #904.) That’s not a lean; that’s a landslide — yet it only produced a nine-point lead for Obama.
Also, the poll questioned a lot more women than men. In fact, the gender gap was eight points. Women are expected to vote in slightly larger numbers than men this year, but not by a 54 to 46 margin! Because Democrats have consistently enjoyed a bit of a gender advantage with women voters, this margin gives Obama’s poll numbers a significant boost.
The poll also admits to “over-sampling” the percentage of black voters. With Obama pulling about 95% of the black vote, do you think that might help his numbers a bit? All of these tweaks and subtle nudges of the numbers were intended to produce a desired result, rather than providing voters with an accurate snapshot of public opinion.
I said the poll was designed to boost Democrat morale, and that is what it was – the MSM strikes again. But the real news here is that even with a poll this heavily skewed towards Obama he only comes out with a 9 point lead. This means that an MSM outfit went out and found the most heavily Democratic sample they could gin up and still came across a substantial number of Democrats who are opting for McCain over Obama. Remember, this race could come down to thousands of votes in a few battleground States – if even 5% of regular Democrat voters go for McCain, that could end up crushing Obama’s chances.
All is not well in Obama-land, and Obama’s flubbing of the financial crisis isn’t helping him any…in fact, for the first time I’m starting to hear Joe Average types (those who vote, but don’t pay close attention to politics like us junkies do) speak in terms of contempt about Obama. Things could start to get real interesting, real fast.