What Will Israel Do?
Tags: Israel/Judaism, Middle East, nuclear weapons.
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Excellent article in the WSJ about Israel’s increasing acceptance of the need for some sort of decisive action against Iran. Reading it, I got this question in my head: would Israel use nuclear weapons in a first strike?
Keep in mind that in 1967, Israel struck first at those who were gathering to strike Israel. It was a defensive war, but it opened with an Israeli offensive. And it was good that Israel took the step – the enemy wasn’t ready, got severely knocked off balance and the resultant Israeli land captures provided the tactical cushion Israel needed when the enemy tried again in 1973. The trouble is that with Iran, there is not much that conventional Israeli forces can do.
To be sure, the IDF can strike some mighty hard blows at both Iran’s nuclear program and Iran’s ability to hit Israel. But it can’t eliminate the threat, not hit hard enough to convince the Iranian leadership to give up the quest for Israel’s destruction. But the stakes are just as high as they were in 1967 – what is gathering is an existential threat to Israel’s existence. What is gathering is the threat of a second Holocaust.
Two or three nuclear weapons exploded over Israel at the right altitude would pretty much destroy the whole nation (its a very tiny place) and leave the survivors defenseless against Islamist incursions from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. And don’t think that Israel can just settle down to a mini-Cold War of Mutually Assured Destruction…the leaders of Iran are not rational beings as the leaders of the old USSR were. We could rely upon the Soviets to want to survive – Israel can rely on no such thing from the Iranian leadership.
It could be decided that the only way to be sure is by the nuclear destruction of not just the nuke sites, but of Tehran and Qum as well – taking out the civil, religious and military leadership of Iran at a blow, while also destroying the nuclear program which is the ultimate threat.
Impossible? If our nation’s life was faced with utter destruction at the hands of an irrational, hate-filled enemy and our only means were nuclear, what would you do?
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37 Responses to “What Will Israel Do?”
Caucus of Corruption
the war with the islamist’s have been going on for centuries…from the raids on caravans in the middle east 1400 years ago right up to the suicide bomber of today…muslims have been shedding blood in the name of thier false religion from the start…
the only thing they understand is total devastation…we brought them to thier knees in the fall of the ottoman empire…and ended the raids up and down the european coastline of mohammads raiders that sparked fear in every city and town for centuries…
but the have returned…not having learned to live with and get along with the rest of the world…but with the same poison…the same determination…that drove the first muslims to kill 1400 years ago…
they understand peace only between each other…and that also they have not found…but for the jew…the christian…the hindu and any other faith on this world…the only thing they understand is submit or fight…confess the supremacy of islam or die…this is the koran
the islamic concept of defensive war
War is to be used to remove obstacles to the spread of Islam. If a particular country or society is percieved as preventing the spread of Islam outside of or within its borders, that society is a legitimate target for Jihad.
Wars against those who are preventing the spread of Islam are defined as defensive wars, for they are started and carried on to defend the honor of Allah, the name of Mohammed, and the Ummah.
War is the ultimate appeal in determining who is right in a particular argument. This idea that those who win in physical combat must be better supported by God is actually the foundation of the dueling code, as well. It is a concept that is generally foreign to the Western mind, since Christianity drove dueling out as an acceptable form of settling disputes in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s.
to reject islam is an offense against allah…and justifies the defensive war…so when muslims point out that the koran only directs fighting as defensive behavior…it blankets the meaning of what an offense against islam is…and that can be easily seen in history…as mohammad send his negotiators to the cities and towns he approached…they would offer to spare any and all people who submitted to islamic supremacy…and confessed that there is no god but allah, and mohammad was his prophet…if they said no…it was considered an offense against allah…and the bloody sword of mohammad would execute most of the towns people…saving women and children as slaves and booty for the soldiers…this is the example of mohammad that the koran tells muslim men and women to follow…the notion of a defensive war is turned upside down…
this theory of defensive war was responsible for the fall of the byzantine empire…but only because they were “people of the book”…they didnt give the hindu’s the chance to submit…they slaughtered a hundred million hindu, took uncounted slaves and thats why they have such a huge presence from Iran to indonesia…because they slaughtered almost an entire civilization…
so would anyone put the possibility that iran’s mullah’s would hold themselves in check, and respect israels right to exist?
not if they are in thier right minds…history screams out…nuke the bastards…
The problem Israel has is that their planes can’t reach Iran and return without mid-air refueling. There are no countries between Israel and Iran that will allow overflight for an attack.
we have been selling them refueling tankers
then again…its good for iran to think that they are untouchable, no?
kmg,
Are you kidding? The Saudis would stop just short of actually refueling the planes…and there is the understanding that Israel has at least three submarines capable of launching nuclear armed cruise missiles with a range of at least 300km…but Israel also sought some Tomahawk missiles from us 9 years ago; we turned them down, but Israel probably wanted to buy them as a short cut, in the last 9 years it is entirely conceivable that Israel has built and deployed a similar weapon. If this is the case, they would have all of Iran under the gun from a complete surprise attack.
Mark
the Bush admin was considering selling the F-22 to Isreal.
I believe zer0 has squelched that sale.
what a good reliable ally we have become eh?
Mark,
We disagree on what the Saudis will do. I don’t believe any Arab nation will allow Israel overflight privileges or allow tankers into their airspace. I also don’t believe Israel is willing to be the first country to use nuclear weapons in over 60 years. I could be wrong, but I believe for Israel the costs outweigh the benefits. If Iran actually had nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to Israel, that equation could change, but that isn’t the case right now.
As you yourself are fond of pointing out, the only thing that matters to dictators is power. Khomeini might have been a true believer, but Khamenei is not. Ahmadinejad is a vocal nobody.
Setting aside the issues of morality and necessity, this would be calamitous from a tactical point of view. For starters, Iran’s nuclear program isn’t in Tehran. Second, Qom is emerging as one of Israel’s most important, and unlikely, allies in Iran because of the growing number of liberal clerics there (bear in mind that this is “liberal” in the context of Iranian politics, not American politics). Remember, Qom came out in favor of the protesters after the election. Third, Israel using nuclear weapons in an unprovoked first strike against the sixteenth largest city in the world would likely prompt its ultimate destruction. All of the peace treaties it had ever signed would become null and void. Another Intifada would begin, a civil war would erupt between those Jews who agree with you and those Jews who meant it when they said “never again” (the Holocaust killed six million Jews; Tehran has a population of 7.8 million), all of Israel’s neighbors would invade, and one of the nuclear powers, probably Pakistan but maybe Russia, would finish the job in order to prevent Israel from launching retaliatory nuclear strikes against the major population centers of the nations that had just attacked it, which have a combined population of some 50 million people. There are smart ways to take out Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and there are stupid ways. This is definitely the later.
The sale of F-22s to foreign governments has been illegal since 1997.
Israel can do nothing effective against deep, hardened targets.
The IAF does NOT have the GBU-57A/B nor the means to deliver.
Post attack analysis in Iraq showed previous generation GBU’s were ineffective against deep, hardened targets.
Once again, the US is the only attack option.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6288
kmg, if the “cost” is some degree of international outrage and the “benefit” is survival, I don’t think Israel would flinch.
I think Israel has a much better grasp of the enemy than we do here, and realizes that if the enemy is allowed to develop lethal strength it will use that strenght to destroy all who are not Islam. As they are the closest target and also Jewish, so hated by Islam, they will bear the brunt of this attitude if it is true. So they will do what they have to do to survive. There are no political repercussions and few physical ones that could deter a nation from acting to secure its very existence.
Remember, Iran poses a threat to the entire Middle East. If they cause a nuclear war, every nation in the area will suffer, and suffer terribly. So the chances are pretty good that while an Islamic nation can’t openly support a Jewish nation’s attack on another Islamic nation, in reality there is plenty of room for tacit approval and support without being blatant about it.
SA
I think I used the word PROPOSED……..
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Friday, June 6, 2008
US may lift ban on F-22 sale to Israel
http://zionism-israel.com/israel_news/2008/06/us-may-lift-ban-on-f-22-sale-to-israel.html
US may lift ban on F-22 sale to Israel
Hilary Leila Krieger, jerusalem post correspondent , THE JERUSALEM POST Jun. 6, 2008
US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman, whose panel has hitherto prevented the sale to Israel of the F-22 stealth fighter jet, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday that he was open to removing the sales restriction to boost Israeli deterrence.
The F-22 “Raptor” has long been regarded as a tremendous potential asset in any Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, given its ability to penetrate even the most sophisticated radar and other defense systems.
Officials reportedly brought up the possibility of a repeal of the sales ban in meetings at the White House during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s trip to Washington this week, though his aides declined to confirm the details of the conversations.
“I’m a strong supporter of Israel getting all the material and equipment they need,” said Berman, a California Democrat who assumed the chairmanship after the death of Tom Lantos earlier this year. In terms of dropping the ban on F-22 sales, he said, “I certainly would look at it.”
Sergei, the only thing that matters to a political dictator is power. But Ahmadinejad is much more a religious zealot than a political dictator, and his goals must be examined in the light of his religious beliefs and agenda.
If, in fact, he is a Twelfther, and believes that he will go down in Muslin lore as the hero of Islam who personally brought about the circumstances necessary for the return of the Twelfth Imam and thereby the worldwide dominance of Islam, his goal is far different than those of, say, Stalin or Hitler.
Most tyrants want the power to rule nations and peoples, and therefore need nations and peoples to rule. But to fulfill the prophecy of the Return of the Imam, nations and peoples must be sacrificed, chaos must reign, blood must flow in the streets, and widespread death and disaster are desireable and even necessary.
So if you are an Iranian, or a nation near Iran, you have to live with the knowledge that A-Jad is working to create a situation in which you will be subjected to the conditions necessary to make him an Islamic hero and legend. Open opposition to him would make you a target of his death squads and terrorist actions. But if there is a way to disarm him without running the risk of appearing to be an enemy of Islam, you will probably be interested in it.
Amazona,
Using nuclear weapons in an unprovoked first strike would result in the costs that Sergei laid out. It would be more than just international outrage, it would be a Third World War. Also, a country can’t give tacit approval to allowing tankers to refuel attack jets in mid-air. Any country’s air defenses and early warning networks are good enough that they can’t say they didn’t know the planes were there. The Saudis already have a problem with Islamic fundamentalists. Allowing an Israeli strike, in my opinion, would topple the regime.
kmg
Using nuclear weapons in an unprovoked first strike would result in the costs that Sergei laid out. It would be more than just international outrage, it would be a Third World War.
WHERE did anybody say nuclear bombs were to be used?
kmg
OOPS
I guess i missed one paragraph when i read the article.
I would have to agree with your analysis of the consequences.
neocon,
No problem. Mark also mentioned using nuclear sub-launched cruise missiles in his comment at 11:11 AM.
kmg and Sergei,
The world would be shocked and express outrage and be loud in its denunciations of Israel…and then do precisely nothing about it. What is anyone do to? Attack Israel? They would have just used nuclear weapons and are known to have a fairly large stockpile, including – even after a putative attack on Iran – at least 12 others on submarines; enough to take out every major Moslem capitol city in the world.
No, the Moslems would not attack – certainly the Sunni would not risk destruction by Israel in order to avenge the death of Shia Moslems. In fact, more than likely, the Moslem leaders would call off the dogs in Lebanon and Gaza. It would end the Israel-Arab war at a blow.
It would be a horrible thing – but Israel cannot survive even a couple Iranian nukes being launched at it and Israel cannot wait until Iran has nukes before striking because once Iran has deployed them, Israel cannot be sure of a complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons prior to at least some of them being launched at Israel.
Sorry, Mark, but I think your analysis is opposed to virtually every one else. The Arabs will not all turn tail and run and Israel will not start raining nuclear weapons down on every neighboring Arab country. It would become a multi-front conventional and insurgent war where some, like the US, will support Israel and others, like Russia, will support the Arabs. The Arabs have received more and better military hardware since ‘67 with the help of Russia, China, and even the US. they will not be afraid to use it. Under your scenario, Israel will be responsible for killing untold thousands of innocent women and children based on a perceived threat. That could not be ignored by the Arab world. If Israel feels threatened by small rockets being fired out of Lebanon now, wait and see what happens when Syria unleashes it’s entire missile arsenal. I am not sure Israel could survive the backlash.
kmg,
Remind me to introduce you to the real world one of these days.
“Mark Noonan says:
October 31st, 2009
kmg,
Remind me to introduce you to the real world one of these days.”
Are you sure you know where to find it? You are advocating for nuclear war and the deaths of thousands of people.
a nuke would kill what, a few million and stop a tyranical theocracy from spreading death and destruction?
but what do you care for casper…only a hypocrit would would cry about the devastation of war…and then turn about and endorse the slaughter of the innocent’s in abortion clinics…
and the induction of sodomy into main stream education with the GLSEN misleading children by telling them that sexual perversion is natural…
not much you can bring here carries much weight libtard…that tree you come from is rotten…and you are the rotten fruit it bears…
kmg…you gotta be mentally damage goods…your simple minded thoughts are a weak link we can do without son…your false god BHO hasnt stripped our will to be free…and certainly has failed in every step he has taken so far…we dont need your socialist democratic party…
we are far better off without it…and upholding the very principals that our forefathers did…
kick thier butts and then let them grovel at the feet of thier false gods…
“js02 says:
October 31st, 2009
a nuke would kill what, a few million and stop a tyranical theocracy from spreading death and destruction?
You are ok with killing a few million people? Does the s in your name stand for Stalin?
percieved my arse…direct threats from the head of state of iran…thats what creates wars…
Threats against Israel
“Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation’s fury.”
“Remove Israel before it is too late and save yourself from the fury of regional nations.”
“The skirmishes in the occupied land are part of a war of destiny. The outcome of hundreds of years of war will be defined in Palestinian land. As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map.”
“If the West does not support Israel, this regime will be toppled. As it has lost its raison d’ tre, Israel will be annihilated.”
“Israel is a tyrannical regime that will one day will be destroyed.”
“Israel is a rotten, dried tree that will be annihilated in one storm.”
“We ask the West to remove what they created sixty years ago and if they do not listen to our recommendations, then the Palestinian nation and other nations will eventually do this for them.”
“[There is] no significant need for the United States.”
sorry casper…im not going to lower myself to pointing to your hypocricy…dont waste my time stooge…its like beating up a little kid…why dont you get off your potty training chair and see what your mommy wants now…
just think, it the polish people had a few good nukes, WWII never would have had to happen…
dont flatter yourself with libtard gossip…
#
“js02 says:
October 31st, 2009
sorry casper…im not going to lower myself to pointing to your hypocricy…dont waste my time stooge…its like beating up a little kid…why dont you get off your potty training chair and see what your mommy wants now…”
I can understand why you don’t want to admit to wanting genocide.
casper,
“Genocide” gets thrown around too often – heck, people are trying to work up what happened to the Indians as genocide! Genocide is the deliberate intent to entirely destroy a racial or religious group of people. Even if you kill millions, if it is never your intent to kill all of a particular group, then whatever else it is you’re doing, it isn’t genocide.
Interesting. Thanks.
So what? Ahmadinejad controls neither the nuclear program nor the military. Remember, the leader of Iran is Ali Khamenei. And unlike Ahmadinejad, he is eminently practical.
As it happens, the only way Ahmadinejad could succeed in his goal of starting a war is if he were able to provoke someone into attacking him.
It would be much easier to take your analysis seriously if you were to correctly spell and understand the terminology. A “Twelver” is a type of Shiite “Muslim”; the other two are the Ismailis and the Zaidis. These two groups, which are much smaller than the Twelvers, are sometimes called “Seveners” and “Fivers”, respectively, to indicate where in the line of Imams they differ from the Twelvers. Additionally, the Ismailis disagree as to the identity of the 19th Imam, though fortunately there is no such word as “Nineteener”. One of these Imamates has continued to the present day; according to the main Ismaili group, this guy is the 49th Imam. The last Zaidi Imam died in 1996, though they may eventually elect another one.
Not necessarily. Remember this?
Uh, yeah? If Israel demonstrates that it has a policy of launching preemptive nuclear holocausts on Muslim nations, do you really think that the Muslims are just going to sit there? They will give their lives, as they have in the past. And do I really need to remind you that Israel would be within the range of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons even if it couldn’t fire them from Iranian soil?
In any case, it might not matter. Nuclear weapons are not frikkin toys, and the nuclear powers know this. It is quite likely that in order to avoid a nuclear war, one of the nuclear powers — maybe Russia, maybe France, maybe us, maybe all of them acting in concert — would end the conflict there. The survival of the human race is not something you leave to chance.
Muslims are Muslims, Mark. Even those who want to kill each other will unite against a common enemy, which is why Iran supports Hamas.
Because we all know how much suicide bombers are motivated by a strong sense of self-preservation.
Tehran has a population of 7.8 million people. Incidentally, Israel has a population of 7.5 million.
You mean this real world? (NB: Because the person who uploaded this documentary was apparently terrified of the number nine, the next video in the sequence is 01/08-2. After that it proceeds normally. Note too that this should be required viewing for anyone discussing the use of nuclear weapons.)
I know that if the US faced the kind of threat that Israel does, I would expect what ever level of action needed to eliminate the threat. When the US used the bombs on Japan it was to end a war without having the huge casualties of an invasion. Israel does not have the luxury of invading Iran, or waiting for Iran to launch a conventional or nuclear attack.
And if you think about it, based on the idea that the 9/11 attack was a declaration of war on the US, Hamas and Hezbollah have declared war on Israel. And like the Taliban in Afghanistan, Iran is the state that is supporting, supplying and encouraging them. So, if we can go after the Taliban, why can’t Israel go after Iran?
Because going after Iran with nukes would be suicidal.
Also, note that there is a big difference between the relations between Iran and Hezbollah and between al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The former is an example of state-sponsored terrorism, while the latter is an example of a terrorism-sponsored state.
Iran is playing a deadly game which is a win win for them. If they die they do so b/c of the caliphate…A destiny fulfilled. If they take Israel with them this is another destiny fulfilled. If the west dies another destiny fulfilled. How do you fight evil like that? How do you wrap your mind around nuclear war? You don’t actually think a few missles into Iran will accomplish anything but a nuclear or biowarfare response from them do you?
mark,
‘Even if you kill millions, if it is never your intent to kill all of a particular group, then whatever else it is you’re doing, it isn’t genocide.”
So then it’s ok to kill millions of people? Killing millions of people in a preemptive strike because they “might” attack you some where down the line is wrong no matter how you try to justify it.
casper just gets sillier and sillier. I wonder if the Casper school system knows it employs a “teacher” who can’t read.
casper, it is obvious that you think misstating the statments of others and then simpering at them is, somehow, comparable to intellectual political discourse, but in fact you are just embarrassing yourself. Your so-called arguments are infantile and puerile, as well as irrelevant to the conversation.
“Doddering” is the word that comes to mind.
Example of casper’s silly technigue”
“Oh, so, casper, it’s OK for Iran to nuke Israel?”
So, casper, you are OK with killing a few million people as long as they are Jews?
casper, you are advocating the destruction of a democratic nation and the millions who live there.
So, casper, you don’t think that women and children have the right to be protected from an insane Jew-hater?
Does the A in your name stand for Adolph?