Noticing the Recession and Finding the Cure

Good thing to do, because the one that started in 2007 kind of sneaked up on us in 2008, right?  Well, my bet is that the renewed (double-dip) recession began in April or May of this year and rather than wait until 2012 when it is plain as a pikestaff, why not dig around for the indicators that its already here?  The bad news here is that I’m not skilled enough to do that – but Tony Pallotta over at Zero Hedge, is:

The consumer driven recession has begun. Keeping it very simple of the four GDP components (consumer, fixed investment, government and net trade) the consumer has simply rolled over. In Q1 2011 the consumer contributed 1.46% to the 0.4% total GDP. In other words if it was not for consumer growth or even if .5% of that growth was removed the economy contracted in Q1 2011.

Fast forward to Q2 where the consumer component is now 0.3%. In other words the trend of the consumer is deteriorating. Representing roughly 70% of total GDP the consumer is the economy. Confidence drives the consumer, the consumer drives demand and demand drives the economy…

Which is why, by the way, we need to shift our economy from consumerism to wealth creation.  We have used debt to finance consumer spending – and now the debts are too high and the consumer is tapped out.  There is no way for consumer spending to lead us out of recession.  Rather than buying gadgets from China and calling that “growth”, we need an economy which will make things here in the United States.  The reality is that the only things of genuine economic value are things which are made, mined and grown…if what you’re doing doesn’t do or facilitate such actions, then it just isn’t that important to the economy.  Doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen but it is just not something we need to be concentrating on.

The trouble is that our current government doesn’t recognize this.  Obama and Co (and quite a few Republicans, too) figure that we can some how, some way, keep things going as they have been for the last 30 years (and especially the last 20).  The thinking is that we can re-inflate asset bubbles, give people a sensation of being rich and convince them to plunge even further in to debt to buy things increasingly made overseas but which generate profits here in the United States.  Sorry to say, but it just can’t work like that any more…ultimately, if you want to buy something from a foreign country, you have to exchange wealth for it…the way we’ve been paying for the stuff we get is to sell off, as it were, our capacity to make, mine and grow things.  Essentially, in return for that cool cell phone, you gave China a factory, Mexico a farm and Chile a mine.  But now you’ve got no more mines, farms and factories to hand over to them…so how do you pay for your next cell phone?  That, essentially, is the problem we have.

A course of balanced budgets, regulatory relief, corporate reform (Big Corporation is nearly as bad as Big Government…such corporations tend to work for a restraint of trade nearly as much as unions do…and we need to figure out a system which ensures that small and mid-sized players can compete against the big boys), tax adjustments to ensure no foreign enterprise has a tax advantage over us and a general insistence that work replace welfare will fix what is wrong with us.  Not overnight.  It took many years to get in to this mess and it will take quite a while to get out of it.  The good news is that we can still fix it – there is still enough genuine American spirit in the United States to overcome the debt and the laziness and the consumerism of the past.   The bad news is that the window of opportunity is closing fast…if we don’t get our house in order soon then we will condemn ourselves to permanent decline.

2012 is that important – who we choose to give power to next year will determine, for good, the fate of our nation.  We’ll either do what is right and restore American greatness, or we’ll slink away in a cowardly surrender and insist upon a Big Government shroud for our national funeral.  We’ll see how we choose.

 

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61 thoughts on “Noticing the Recession and Finding the Cure

  1. Sunnier

    I don’t know how to cure the recession but I have an idea to create a few more jobs and make our highways safer. Cancel the permits for trucks to come into the US from Mexico and start transferring loads again at the border from Mexican trucks to US trucks driven by US licensed US drivers in US inspected trucks. This will cut down on drug traffic, create jobs in the transfer of loads at the border and make sure US truckers get the work and it will keep uninspected trucks off our highways and make sure drivers have all passed US commercial driver tests. It will give drug sniffing dogs a chance to check over every load transferred and make sure drugs are not hidden in truck bodies that can cross into the country and drive all across the country. Allowing Mexican trucks into the US is one of the all time stupidest decisions anyone ever made.

    1. Cluster

      I agree allowing Mexican trucks into the US was not a good decision, but stopping that, wont even put a dent into the flow of drugs. Unfortunately.

  2. Cluster

    Here’s the bigger culprit in terms of hindering job growth:

    Boehner pointed out in his letter that the administration admits that there are 219 new regulations — each with annual costs of more than $100 million. “That’s almost a 15 percent increase over last year, and appears to contradict public suggestions by the Administration this week that the regulatory burden on American job creators is being scaled back,” he wrote. Boehner said he was “startled” to learn that the Environmental Protection Agency admitted that just one of the new rules will cost the economy more than $90 billion a year.

    Read more on Newsmax.com: Wyo. Sen. Barrasso Slams Obama’s End-Around Regs
    Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama’s Re-Election? Vote Here Now!

    1. neocon1

      Natl sales tax ALL pay, ALL pay same rate.
      cut corporate tax
      cut social services to ILLEGAL trespassers including education.
      CUT SPENDING to LESS than income.

      check book 101

      1. thomasg0102

        this isn’t your hillbilly family neo. it’s the GOVERNMENT. all world governments at one point or another deficit spend. It’s just how the world works.

        why don’t you calm down and thank Clinton for the SURPLUS he gave us.

      2. Dvindice

        Correction, the surplus that the Republican House and Congress gave us why slick willy played hide the cigar.

      3. tiredoflibbs

        tommy-boy continues to suck down the kool-aid: “why don’t you calm down and thank Clinton for the SURPLUS he gave us.”

        The “surplus” WAS PROJECTED, never realized. The projected “surplus” evaporated with the Clinton Recession and just after the first plane his the WTC.

        Perhaps you should find out FACTS before you spew the mindless dumbed down talking points.

  3. Cluster

    LMAO!!! Buffet said last week that the rich should pay more taxes, yet he wont even pay his current taxes.

    Americans for Limited Government researcher Richard McCarty, who was alerted to the controversy by a federal government lawyer, said, “The company has been short-changing the tax collection agency for much of the past decade. Mr. Buffett’s company has not fully settled its tax bills from 2002-2009. Yet he says he’d happily pay more. Except the IRS has apparently been asking him to pay more going on nine years.”

    Read more at NetRightDaily.com: http://netrightdaily.com/2011/08/warren-buffett%e2%80%99s-taxing-hypocrisy/#ixzz1WSljINn2

    1. thomasg0102

      what a great source you have there cluster! man, i tell ya, you get more and more desperate each and everyday…

      what’s next? Newsmax? oh wait…never mind.

      you right wing kooks are starting to become like the national enquirer.

      1. Cluster

        You must have missed this:

        According to Berkshire Hathaway’s own annual report — see Note 15 on pp. 54-56 — the company has been in a years-long dispute over its federal tax bills.

        Even Berkshire admits it. Why can’t you thomas?

      2. neocon1

        tommyTurban

        what’s next? Newsmax?

        at least NOT the huffpo, KO’s, CNN, Al-jeserrah, fork where you hang sasan.

      3. thomasg0102

        it’s a dispute. it’s not tax evasion. there is a difference you know.

        and I bet you got that little quote out of that same article….

        nice try though. you’re a liar.

      4. thomasg0102

        apparently it doesn’t help you sleep that Buffet created 260k jobs and is the most successful investor in the world.

        it bothers you that a rich man like him actually debunks your talking points about trickle down economics. but that’s ok, whatever floats your boat. you got nothing, so you go hunting for articles on FAR RIGHT looney sites and claim them as facts.

      5. Cluster

        If you wanted to pay more in taxes, why would you dispute your current tax bill? Or for that matter, tax bills going back to 2002? Wouldn’t it be best for the country just to pay it?

      6. thomasg0102

        once again idiot. mistakes happen, people dispute things until an agreement is reached. maybe they were overcharged.

        why do you expect liberals to pay more taxes when conservatives don’t want to pay more than what they have to legally?

        talk about double standard, you want a certain portion of the population to pay more….but you don’t want the increase legalized and codified?

        really, just quit now, you’ve got nothing sport.

      7. Cluster

        ..why do you expect liberals to pay more taxes – thomas

        Because they talk the talk, but never walk the walk.

      8. thomasg0102

        oooh. what a good comeback.

        they want to FIX the tax code and have everyone pay their share. you dumb conservatives who are probably poor, carry water for the rich even when they want to pay more! imagine that!

        you want Rush to pay less taxes than you do because he is such a great job creator!

        idiocy is an amazing phenomena on your side cluster.

      9. Cluster

        …they want to FIX the tax code and have everyone pay their share. – thomas

        Yet they don’t do anything to “fix it” or even agree to tax reform as advocated by conservatives.

      1. thomasg0102

        hey don’t quote me, its in the article. or do you dispute facts as well now? is that your pastime? disputing facts because they don’t fit your conservative idiotic model?

      2. Cluster

        Wow, you are defensive and quick to anger. I just said, everything is going along just fine. What’s wrong with that?

      1. neocon1

        tommyTurban

        like you, sooooo simple

        Employment Situation report showed that in September “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers jumped to 17.1% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also stayed flat at 9.6%.

        Official unemployment rate? 9.4 percent.
        Total rate? 16.7 percent.
        Amid job growth, ‘total unemployment’ rises to 15.9 percent
        Unemployment rate remained flat in July

        The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

        The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

        The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

        To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

      2. thomasg0102

        oh, no source I see. hmmm…interesting that they claim unemployment is 9.4%, when it’s really 9.1%.

        and you want the rest of their numbers to be right? man, you fall for propaganda really fast huh?

        but what can you expect, a former “marine” with no edumacation living in the good ole south! DUH!

        why don’t you give us the source there idiot.

      3. tiredoflibbs

        tommy-boy flails around again: “unemployment is 9.1% idiot”

        Like the BLS, tommy-boy, you are ignoring those unemployed that are no longer counted and figured into the unemployment calculation.

        Wow, can you be so dense? Or you just like the kool-aid you inhale without question?

      4. thomasg0102

        oh so now the BLS is ignorant.

        during the Bush years, they were spot on and constantly cited by the right wing for unemployment numbers.

        but NOW, when you have a Democrat in the white house, the BLS is wrong.

        stupidity must be easy for you tiredoffacts. why don’t you just run along and let neo be the only one who makes a fool of himself.

      5. thomasg0102

        so neostupid,

        which is it? your 17.4% percentage earlier, or the one in the washington post….(another great source btw)

        instead of going to newspapers for reports on GOVERNMENT data, why don’t you just go to the BLS direct? oh wait, that’s because you’re a partisan idiot who doesn’t know his left hand from his right.

        good day grandpa, go collect social security on my dime. looter.

      6. tiredoflibbs

        There goes tommy-boy losing his lunch in a little snit after being proved wrong again.

        The difference now tommy-boy, is that during Bush we had real job growth and a growing economy not the stagnant economy that we have NOW! People were not falling off of the employment rolls by the thousands (and job searching rolls used in the calculation) like they are NOW!

        Sheesh, common sense would tell you alot if you had any.

        Now, go off and have your predictable little snit after being bitch slapped again.

    1. Mark Edward Noonan Post author

      Thomas,

      Yep, everything’s splendid – consumer spending is up 0.8%, slightly more than the “experts” low ball prediction. Consumer spending almost always rises this time of year:

      June 2002: $8,011.0
      July 2002: $8,055.8

      June 2003: $8,229.6
      July 2003: $8,272.2

      June 2004: $8,455.2
      July 2004: $8,508.4

      June 2005: $8,833.3
      July 2005: $8,886.8

      June 2006: $9,030.0
      July 2006: $9,077.3

      June 2007: $9,247.0
      July 2007: $9,261.8

      June 2008: $9,280.5
      July 2008: $9,226.4

      June 2009: $9,000.1
      July 2009: $9,023.5

      June 2010: $9,203.7
      July 2010: $9,216.8

      And here’s the bad news – food and fuel prices are still much higher than they were last year, and vastly higher than they were in 2008. Which means that a gigantic amount of the “increase” in consumer spending of late has been merely people paying more for basic necessities.

      A consumer-driven recovery is simply not possible – the people are tapped out, suffering stagnant or declining wages while still suffering the on-going effects of the housing collapse (a more important data point today is that pending home sales dropped 1.3%). You can keep up with your tunnel-vision, “just accept the data given today, never think about the larger picture” BS, if you like…but those of us who are paying attention to the larger economic trends know we’re back in recession.

      1. Sunny

        “A consumer-driven recovery is simply not possible – the people are tapped out, suffering stagnant or declining wages while still suffering the on-going effects of the housing collapse (a more important data point today is that pending home sales dropped 1.3%). ” Mark

        Mark, how long have wages been stagnant? Who is collecting the wealth in this country? And what caused the housing collapse – better yet, when did the housing collapse start? One of the reasons housing sales have dropped has been because of stagnant wages and lack of jobs, millions going to foreign countries. Why are all of the jobs going to foreign countries and who has pushed this trend for the last 10 years? Can you find anything Made in America anymore? If so, what?

      2. tiredoflibbs

        “Why are all of the jobs going to foreign countries?”

        Perhaps your boy Slick Bill Clinton should not have put those trade agreements in place in order for those jobs to be shipped overseas to begin with.

        Perhaps unions should not have over-priced American labor where they could not complete in a global economy once again set up by trade agreements signed by Bill Clinton.

        It is important to ask WHY the housing collapse occurred in the first place? Perhaps liberals pushing fairness in home ownership and not allowed regulating fannie and freddie who bought high risk loans and sold them as secure investments… or the signing and subsequent modifications of the CRA which gave us the sub-prime lending, interest only lending and other such mortgage instruments to allow people to borrow if they had a pulse rather than the means of paying for such mortgages.

        Perhaps you should lay off the kool-aid and consumption of dumbed down talking points and face the reality of government interfering where it does not belong.

  4. Green Mountain Boy

    Please do not threaten us by threatening to return to Germany. Just do it. Mr. Caput :)

    1. thomasg0102

      I’m already there 4 months a year for work and vacation. it’s 100 times better than the US, at least where I am now. I wouldn’t mind living in NY, or LA, or even Seattle. but the south is just plain dirty and poor. quite horrible.

      1. neocon1

        tommyturban
        . but the south is just plain dirty and poor. quite horrible.

        Fla?
        like harlem?
        Detroit?
        south central?
        DC?
        chicago?
        st louis?
        Bwaaaaaaaa ha ha ha ha

  5. Green Mountain Boy

    Don’t go spending all your time and money down at 40 mark park. You might catch something :)
    P.S. Yes I know its the euro now but the name didn’t change at the park.

    1. thomasg0102

      um, maybe you’re the sex addict…but no thanks. I rather go to a good beer hall and watch my fav team. Bayern Munich.

      1. Green Mountain Boy

        We are going to end the recession by deploying and equiping barkys civilian defense force. Lots of money being spent. You corrupt enough to participate.

        Can you imagine those looney tunes with automatic weapons? Maybe we can get mitch back in the cockpit to call in some artillery fire for them. Heads up and hit the dirt! :)

      2. neocon1

        busted AGAIN tommyTurban
        you are so stupid you do it every night then deny it right after you do it
        ROTFLMAO

      3. neocon1

        Terrorists??

        Wis. County Labor Council Prez Bans GOP From Labor Day Parade

        Bring your rifles and march over the commies if necessary.

      4. neocon1

        was this before Guam tips over, and the manned Mars landing, or after?

        Columnist:
        MLK Sent Hurricane Because of Violence, Racism and Porn in Our Society

        Washington, D.C. officials postponed the dedication of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial due to Hurricaine Irene.

        Officially, this weekend’s dedication ceremony for the new Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial in Washington, D.C. was postponed due to Hurricane Irene.

        Not so, according to Detroit Free Press columnist Rochelle Riley. Instead, the late civil rights leader sent the massive storm to shutter the celebration and force everyone to pause and self-reflect amid the pervasive violence, racism and pornography in our society.

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