Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.
The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?
That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
The article goes on with a couple charts showing the States which are close and could possibly swing towards McCain on the strength of PUMA voters. Not bad analysis - we’ll find out tomorrow if he’s right.
If McCain/Palin wins, the press and the Dems will stroke out and Obama will play The Ultimate Chutzpah Card and say that at least 14 states (the big ACORN states) must be challenged because “the rolls were suspect and the integrity of the election was compromised” - by his very own supporters. Then he’ll proceed to tear the nation apart, in an effort to wrest the White House from the GOP. If Obama wins, the Dems and the press will declare that this was the “cleanest” and most “widely observed” election in our nation’s history; they will declare the people have spoken, call it a mandate and tell John McCain that if he dares to challenge things, he’ll be a most dishonorable man willing to tear his nation apart to serve his own ambition.
Fascinating take on the skewed political playing field in the United States and how the left might be deluding itself as we head into the end of the campaign.
Will the exaggerations become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as assumed, or are Obama supporters spinning further and further away from reality, constructing one unsupportable exaggeration on top of another — only to be stunned on election day when the actual results, once again, don’t match either their pre-vote opinion polling or their post-vote exit polling?
Yet it may very well be that an army of glum, dispirited and pessimistic conservatives will reluctantly trudge to the polls on November 4, each one imagining they are the only remaining person in the entire country voting for McCain, and lo and behold — they’ll turn out to be a silent majority after all.
Some polls show Obama up, but a raft of polls from Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, etc, etc, etc show a clear swing towards McCain. Will it be enough? Will Democrats resort to their tried-and-true method of ballot box stuffing? When Obama loses, will he become the first Democrat in 20 years to concede defeat on the night of the election? When McCain wins, will the left put it all down as a spasm of racism?
Discuss these and any other issues which come to mind.
In blistering remarks to a Saturday morning rally here, former Robert F. Kennedy aide Bartle Bull embraced Republican John McCain for president, hurled Barack Obama under the bus, and then backed it slowly over the Democratic nominee.
“America needs a president who is grounded in patriotism, not drowning in ambition,” Bull told a crowd of hundreds gathered in Lower Manhattan. “I have used that sentence many times in the last three months, and not once — never once — have I been asked which candidate is which.”
The lifelong activist and former Village Voice publisher presented his impeccable liberal-Democrat credentials.
“I had the privilege of serving as Robert F. Kennedy’s New York campaign manager when he ran for president in 1968,” Bull explained. “I was arrested as a civil-rights lawyer in Mississippi, and I campaigned for the Equal Rights Amendment. But in honest conscience, I cannot support the Democratic ticket in this campaign.”
Bull aimed at his target and charged like a longhorn.
“Character in the White House should be more important than charisma on the campaign trail,” Bull declared. “Barack Obama does not want to ‘change’ America. Barack Obama wants a different country.”
Turning to Obama’s financial agenda, Bull minced no words.
“Obama’s notion of economic fairness is pure Karl Marx,” Bull said, “plus a pocketful of Chicago-style ‘community organization.’ ”
How many Democrats are there like this? Just a percentage or two of the normal Democrat vote switching over to McCain out of dismay about Obama could make all the difference. There are, of course, a few GOP turncoats, but no one is seriously considering such to decide the race - McCain is doing as well with GOPers as any recent GOP candidate…Obama, on the other hand, has shown some great weaknesses with some of the core Democratic constituency - most notably blue collar and older Democrats…plus genuine liberals like Mr. Bull.
We’ll know soon enough - but as I’m always saying, consult not what people say, but what people do…people are saying there is a massive groundswell for Obama, but when we look at what people are doing (including Obama, himself, with his choices of campaign stops this past week) we can see that, at best, Obama is narrowly ahead and in for a close fought battle on Tuesday.
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
Still a completely wide open race - it will all come down to who shows up to vote, so don’t allow MSMers to depress you, fellow GOPers! The MSM will do everything they can to carry this semi-socialist political hack over the finish line - but we’ve got the better man and the better plan and right makes might.
…and happened to find myself in the most heavily Democratic area of the Vegas metro area and I didn’t see a single Obama sign or sticker except for one rather lonely lady trying to sell t-shirts with Obama’s picture on them…there wasn’t exactly a crush of people to buy.
A couple days from the election which will elevate The One to the White House by means of the massive enthusiasm he brings to the electorate…and for all the world to see, there might not have been an election going on at all.
Meanwhile, when the Mrs went to the GOP office to get tickets to the Monday rally for John McCain down in Henderson the place was hopping with activity and enthusiasm.
Things just might not be as they appear. The polls still say “Obama wins” - narrowly or in a landslide, but “Obama wins” is the universal of the polls. Unless, of course, the pollsters got the demographics for the electorate in 2008 wrong. If there’s not a massive upsurge in young voters and new African-American voters and if blue collar and older Democrats surge to McCain, then the events on Tuesday wiil leave the MSM and Democrats stunned.
Admittedly, this may be a Jewish thing, but aren’t you frightened of people tattoo-ing numbers on your forearm to memorialize your service to “The One”?
…if Aunt Zeituni had settled in Wasilla — say, in lodgings across the way from Bristol Palin’s boyfriend’s ex-girlfriend’s uncle’s sled dog’s veterinarian’s ammunition dealer — the fact that she’s an “illegal immigrant” might have come out a lot sooner, even if only from the Atlantic Monthly investigative unit driving by and asking her whether Joe the Plumber had ever serviced Trig’s real mother’s double-wide.
On the other hand, what could be more American than an Undocumented First Family? If I’d known it was this easy, I’d have run myself.
I was away for much of the summer and, when I returned, the entire campaign felt like an absurd satire I wasn’t quite up to speed on. But truly, in a world in which the many illegal foreign contributions to the leading candidate’s unprecedented fundraising include his own deportation-ordered aunt, satire is dead.
I don’t think in my lifetime I have ever witnessed quite a campaign in which the wife of the Presidential candidate has been sequestered lest she voice yet another sweeping generalization that can be rightfully interpreted as denigrating both the American system at large or the values of other Americans; or in which the Vice Presidential candidate has been sequestered from press questioning lest he once again in an interview or an impromptu says something that either is so bizarre that it makes no sense at all or serves as a good argument not to vote for his running mate; or in which the Presidential nominee himself knows that if he stays on the teleprompter he has a good chance of winning, but if he wades in to banter wtih the crowd there is equally a good chance that he may say something so disturbing that the entire facade that he has so carefully constructed simply collapses.
In sum, the voters suspect that there is something wrong with these faux-wizardly images on the campaign stump, but on the rare occasions they hear or see a gimpse of something real behind them that understandably makes them uneasy, they are sort of given the message “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.”
Personally, I think the mask is off and right now we’re in a race between the Truth and Obama; and if by November 4th Truth is ahead, then Obama loses.
Vanessa Niekamp said that when she was asked to run a child-support check on Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher on Oct. 16, she thought it routine. A supervisor told her the man had contacted the state agency about his case.
Niekamp didn’t know she just had checked on “Joe the Plumber,” who was elevated the night before to presidential politics prominence as Republican John McCain’s example in a debate of an average American.
The senior manager would not learn about “Joe” for another week, when she said her boss informed her and directed her to write an e-mail stating her computer check was a legitimate inquiry.
The reason Niekamp said she was given for checking if there was a child-support case on Wurzelbacher does not match the reason given by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services.
Director Helen Jones-Kelley said her agency checks people who are “thrust into the public spotlight,” amid suggestions they may have come into money, to see if they owe support or are receiving undeserved public assistance.
Niekamp told The Dispatch she is unfamiliar with the practice of checking on the newly famous. “I’ve never done that before, I don’t know of anybody in my office who does that and I don’t remember anyone ever doing that,” she said today.
Democrat Gov. Ted Strickland and Jones-Kelley, both supporters of Democrat Barack Obama, have denied political motives in checking on Wurzelbacher.
Which is, of course, a monumentally stupid lie - the cat is out of the bag, Strickland, and you’d better fess up, ’cause Obama might not be in a position to help you come January, and you don’t want to be left holding the bag in a federal case.
As a preview of Obama’s practices should he win on Tuesday, this is invaluable - but as an event, in and of itself, this is a crime for which everyone involved should spend a considerable amount of time in jail over. This is the worst sort of corruption - the use of government authority to slander a private citizen. Keep in mind that all Joe did was ask Obama a question - and in return for this, he’s being raked over the coals and having his personal life poked in to by Democratic party hacks.
Obama is out there trying to buy the election - and not with the small donations of average Americans, but with the criminal donations from who knows where:
Barack Obama refuses to release the names of the 2 million-plus people who have given his campaign less than $200. According to campaign officials, it would be too difficult and time-consuming to extract this information from its database.
So how come we were able to do it in a couple hours? Not literally—we don’t have access to the campaign’s list of donors—but we created a database of similar size and format in a Web-ready file and posted it online. (You can view a sample text version of it here. The full version is 824 MB.)
But before we get into the technical details (though, if you’re with the Obama campaign and want to skip ahead, please do), it’s worth dwelling on the reasons for the Obama campaign’s reluctance to disclose this information. It can’t be legal: No law prevents Obama from releasing these names.
Politically, there would be several advantages in releasing the names. Obama has campaigned (effectively) on a platform of making government more transparent, citing his efforts to do so in Chicago and Washington as signature achievements. He has also disclosed the bundlers who raise large amounts of money for his campaign. Finally, making the list public would rebut McCain’s broad and unsubstantiated claims that the list (and the huge sums of money it represents) is shot through with fraud.
Which is why, of course, Obama won’t do it - his fundraising is shot through with fraud. So much so that in my opinion the Justice Department should initiate a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization investigation into the Obama campaign. Certainly if Obama wins next week, we have to know how many criminal donations there have been and what role Obama played in setting up and maintaining this criminal conspiracy against the American electorate - because after Obama gets in, such investigations not only won’t happen, but anyone who brings such things up will be punished by Obama and his minions for daring to question The One.
Our liberal friends have been screaming for 8 years about imaginary threats to their freedom - but if Obama does manage to corruptly obtain the White House and remains un-challenged on it, then there will be no reason for him not to use the same tactics once in office…including the intimidation of media we’ve already seen in this campaign.
With ACORN and other Obama groups planning to defraud our electorate, we must stay vigilant and ensure that the vote is as clean as possible:
Today, the McCain-Palin campaign launched the Honest and Open Election hotline to help citizens learn the location of their polling place, as well as report any instances of irregularities at the polls, including voter fraud, intimidation, violence and electioneering. The hotline can be accessed via phone at: 866-976-VOTE.
“With November 4th quickly approaching, our Honest and Open Election hotline will serve as an informative guide for all Americans participating in the electoral process,” said McCain-Palin National Political Director Mike DuHaime. “The hotline will allow us to learn about and take steps toward remedying any voter irregularities at polling places across the country. While we are hopeful that Election Day will be free of any wrongdoing, allies of the Democrat Party, such as ACORN, have shown a willingness to commit fraud in both this election cycle and in 2004. Given the tightness of the polls, all examples of fraud must be addressed to preserve the integrity of the election.”
In 2004, multiple forms of voter fraud occurred, including voter intimidation, fraudulent registrations, multiple ballots cast and votes bought for money. Already during the 2008 election cycle, a dead woman in Missouri cast an absentee ballot, individuals were arrested for voting twice in Florida and people in Ohio registered and voted on the same day.
Write that number down and carry it with you when you go to vote - if you suspect anything, call it in and allow the experts to determine if its fair or foul. Don’t get into arguments about it at the polling place - but report what you see. Our right to vote is vital and we must prevent people from diluting our votes with bogus ballots.
What happens when you invite crooks and kooks to be part of your party - from NRO’s The Corner:
Last night at a candidate’s forum at Temple Beth El in Boca Raton, long time congressman Alcee Hastings debated his opponent Marion Thorpe Jr., for Florida’s 23rd Congressional District seat. According to a police report filed by Thorpe immediately after the event, debating wasn’t the only activity to take place that night.
According to the report, Congressman Hastings approached his opponent on the back of the stage, after the debate for their race had ended. As the candidates for State Attorney began their debate, following the Hastings-Thorpe exchange, Hastings embraced Thorpe and began threatening to “take (him) out, permanently! (emphasis his)” if he ever mentions Hastings’ impeachment again. He followed up by turning away from his opponent, wagging his finger and whispering “it’s not over, it’s not over, I’m coming for you.”
Witnesses of the event only saw what seemed to be a terse embrace and huddling of the candidates after the debate. It was noticeable that Thorpe was visibly taken aback after the encounter.
A police report was filed in which Thorpe has asked for criminal charges to (be) laid against Hastings, as well as for a restraining order to be issued. He believes that his recent endorsement by Esquire magazine and several news outlets may have led to Hastings’ peculiar behavior, Hastings not being used to electoral opposition.
According to attendees of the event, it was Hastings, not Thorpe, who raised the issue of Hastings’ 1989 impeachment by the House on charges of bribery and perjury.
Ok, Democrats - first off, I’d love to hear you ever explain why a crook manages to get elected and re-elected in your party. After that, I’d like to explain why you aren’t calling for this insane crook to be forced out.
If you ask Obama surrogate Bill Richardson, it’s under $120,000.
In the end. the only thing we can count on is that if you pay taxes now, Obama would have you pay more, so he can spread the wealth around to those who don’t pay any taxes at all.
A 14-year-old girl walked into a Planned Parenthood clinic in Cincinnati, accompanied by her soccer coach, John Haller. He was 21 years old and had initiated sexual activity with the girl when she was 13. Now that she was pregnant, Haller wanted her to have an abortion.
Rather than calling the parents as required under Ohio law, Planned Parenthood called the soccer coach’s cell phone and failed to verify he was the parent.
Planned Parenthood turned a blind eye . . . and performed the abortion. Afterward, they provided the girl with a bag of condoms and a Depo-Provera shot.
Thirty-six states across the country require some form of parental notification or consent prior to an abortion involving a minor child. And these laws are supported by 80% of the American people. In addition to the obvious reason that parents need to be involved when their child undergoes a medical procedure, these laws also protect young girls from sexual abuse. Research shows high percentages of teen pregnancies are fathered by adult men and a relationship between early teen sex and coercion.
Senator Obama, why do you oppose these parental involvement laws that protect our children from sexual abuse?
Despite Planned Parenthood’s actions, the parents of the Cincinnati teenager found out about her abortion and the sexual abuse perpetrated by her soccer coach. Eventually John Haller was convicted of seven counts of sexual battery and served three years in prison.
Senator Obama, the mainstream media refuses to ask you these questions, so we will: Why have you promised Planned Parenthood that the first piece of legislation you will sign is the Freedom of Choice Act, a piece of abortion legislation which would eliminate ALL of the common-sense parental involvement laws across the country?
Sincerely,
Charmaine Yoest, Ph.D.
President and CEO, AUL Action (emphasis in original)
Wow - and she’s also written for Edwards and Hillary:
This drift started on a personal level with the fall of former Senator John Edwards. It got stronger during the Democratic National Convention when I counted the substantive mentions of poverty on one hand and a whole bunch of bad canned partisan lines against Senator John McCain. Some faith was lifted after Senator Hillary Clinton’s grace during a difficult hour. But that faith was dashed when I saw that someone had raided the Caligula set and planted the old columns at Invesco Field.
The final straw came the other week when Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher (a.k.a Joe the Plumber) asked a question about higher taxes for small businesses. Instead of celebrating his aspirations, they were mocked. He wasn’t “a real plumber,” and “They’re fighting for Joe the Hedge-Fund manager,” and the patronizing, “I’ve got nothing but love for Joe the Plumber.”
Having worked in politics, I know that absolutely none of this is on the level. This back and forth is posturing, a charade, and a political game. These lines are what I refer to as “hooker lines”—a sure thing to get applause and the press to scribble as if they’re reporting meaningful news.
As the nation slouches toward disaster, the level of political discourse is unworthy of this moment in history. We have Republicans raising Ayers and Democrats fostering ageism with “erratic” and jokes about Depends. Sexism. Racism. Ageism and maybe some Socialism have all made their ugly cameos in election 2008. It’s not inspiring. Perhaps this is why I found the initial mocking of Joe so offensive and I realized an old line applied: “I didn’t leave the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left me.”
The party I believed in wouldn’t look down on working people under any circumstance. And Joe the Plumber is right. This is the absolutely worst time to raise taxes on anyone: the rich, the middle class, the poor, small businesses and corporations…
…I was dead wrong about the surge and thought it would be a disaster. Senator John McCain led when many of us were ready to quit. Yet we march on as if nothing has changed, wedded to an old plan, and that too is a long way from the Democratic Party.
I can no longer justify what this party has done and can’t dismiss the treatment of women and working people as just part of the new kind of politics. It’s wrong and someone has to say that. And also say that the Democratic Party’s talking points—that Senator John McCain is just four more years of the same and that he’s President Bush—are now just hooker lines that fit a very effective and perhaps wave-winning political argument…doesn’t mean they’re true. After all, he is the only one who’s worked in a bipartisan way on big challenges.
I know that none of you Democrats will believe me on this, but your man Obama is a disaster-in-waiting. He’s a product of the hopelessly corrupt Chicago Democratic machine and he lacks the knowledge, judgment and courage to be President. He won’t heal anything and won’t change anything - he can’t; he won’t be allowed to by the Powers That Be in the Democratic party and he lacks the ability to face them down and do the right thing in spite of them.
If you want change, then McCain is your man - he’ll get right to work actually changing the way DC does business.
