Obama’s Problem With the Democratic Vote
Certainly, Obama has locked down the African American vote and the upper class white vote - but these two constituencies invariably vote Democratic. Obama’s got two problems - how to get the rest of the Democratic vote (blue collar workers, Jewish voters), while also poaching a bit into McCain’s GOP base. Poaching GOPers is going to be rough - but it might prove just as rough for Obama to lock down the normal Democratic vote, as Mark Hemmingway points out over at NRO’s The Corner:
From Marc Ambinder:
Gallup’s tracking finds that 61% of all Jewish voters would choose Barack Obama in a general election versus John McCain, only a smidge less than the percentage who would choose Clinton over McCain (66%).
Caveat: Jews have voted for the Democrat in much higher proportions — John Kerry took 76% of the Jewish vote; Al Gore took 79% of the Jewish vote.
What this suggests is that McCain attracts more than an average Republican’s share of Jewish voters — not that Obama repels him.
With all due respect to Ambinder who’s a talented reporter, I think he’s dead wrong on that last point. If he’d read my article in the latest NRODT, he’d know that it’s entirely likely Obama has real problems with Jewish voters. For some time now, many in the Jewish community been openly discussing the problems they have with Obama’s stance on Israel, as well as that of his advisors. And certainly his long association with former PLO spokesmen Rashid Khalidi isn’t helping. If McCain pulls down 39-40% of the Jewish vote in the election that would be remarkable — no Republican has done that since Reagan in 1980. Also, the Jewish vote could have serious electoral consequences. Aside from Florida, some three percent of Pennsyvania’s population is Jewish.
McCain getting 40% of the Jewish vote would likely put Florida entirely out of reach for Obama, and that means Ohio would become a “must win” State, just as it turned out for Kerry in 2004. But as noted, with a high Jewish population in Pennsylvania - especially when coupled with Pennsylvania’s large blue collar and rural vote - that State might fall out of Obama’s reach…and that would make…well, heck…it would make Virginia and West Virginia “must win” States for Obama. In other words, if McCain can seriously eat into Obama’s normal Democrat Jewish vote in November, it will complicate Obama’s quest for 270 electoral votes quite a bit.
Now, fellow GOPers, this is some good news - and it is just about time that Jewish Americans (at least, those who care at all about Judaism and/or Israel) ceased their support for a Democratic party ever more enthralled to a left growing increasingly anti-Semitic. But it is just that - some good news; some cause for positive thinking…but it isn’t a done deal, not by a long shot. Prying lose 40% of the Jewish vote will not be easy, and it will be up to McCain - and the rest of us GOPers - to demonstrate that a switch to the GOP is in accordance with overall Jewish belief. A high hill to climb - but lets start climbing it.
19 comments May 8th, 2008
