Posts with the tag 'Democratic Nomination'
If Hillary wins by less than 10 percentage points, will the pressure to quit become overwhelming?
If Obama loses by more than 10 percentage points, will his claim of inevitibility weaken beyond recall?
Will an Obama loss in Pennsylvania mean that Michelle Obama needs to hit more gay bars with Chelsea?
What are your answers to these burning questions?
UPDATE: Memo from Obama’s camp - to paraphrase; “nothing to see here people, just move along”
UPDATE, II: Real Clear Politics is saying that Bill Clinton will claim a lead in the popular vote for Hillary tomorrow…this is if, apparently, one includes Michigan and Florida.
Can you say “nasty floor fight at the convention”, boys and girls?
Tags: Democratic Nomination, HillBama, Pennsylvania
April 22nd, 2008
Things aren’t looking so good for Democrats’ hopes for the White House this year. According to a recent Gallup poll, “a sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination.” The poll says that 28% of Hillary’s supporters would rather vote for McCain than Barack Obama, if Obama got the Democratic nomination. In addition to that, 19% of Obama’s supporters said they’d vote for McCain if Hillary got the Democratic nomination
This certainly shows the impact of the ongoing battle between Hillary and Obama is having on the Democratic Party. True, come November, I wouldn’t expect either of those figures to maintain the same level, but it is clear that the Democratic Party is divided, and the longer this primary race goes for them the worse it will be for the Democrats. But, don’t expect the race to end anytime soon. In fact, I think we’re going to see Hillary and Obama battle it out all the way to the convention in Denver. A Rasmussen poll shows that 22% of Democrats think Hillary should drop out of the race, and and equal number of Democrats believe Obama should drop out.
The Democratic Party is divided, and I’m loving every minute of it. One might even say there’s a quagmire in the Democratic Party.
UPDATE: The plot thickens…
Tags: Barack Obama, brokered convention, Democratic Nomination, Hillary Clinton, John McCain
March 26th, 2008
Cause this is going to cause a couple heart attacks:
The lengthy Democratic primary contest bodes well for Republican chances of holding the White House, a new poll suggests.
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters — at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary — aren’t committed to the party’s ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
On the other hand, this does nothing for we GOPers because we’re not dumb enough to assume that a March poll will hold true in November…Democrats, on the other hand, are dumb enough to believe that a polls taken even a year before the election prove they have already won. Anyways, here is the actual poll (PDF) - its a fairly small sample, but it is just a poll of Pennsylvania, so it probably does a good job of reflecting the view of Pennsylvania Democrats this week…
On a larger level, one does wonder just how the long term slugging match will affect the November results - its just a natural that the longer a fight goes on, the more intensely the strong partisans on each side feel about it, and the more disappointed they’ll be if their candidate doesn’t win. This might not translate so much into McCain votes, but it may very well translate into non-voting. The trick for Hillary and Obama - and its a mighty hard one - is to figure out how to win convincingly (so there’s no question about the legitimacy of the nomination) whie at the same time keeping enough ties to the other side to bridge the gap for November. One of the larger problems in this is the fact that by the time the Democrats finalise their nominee, that person will only have a limited time to heal divisions prior to the need to stretch out to the middle for the general election.
Tags: Democratic Nomination, HillBama, Polls
March 21st, 2008
Hillary getting her backers to bring out the brass knuckles?
Democrats in Michigan and Florida struggled Friday to resolve the impasse over their disputed January primaries, coming up with a plan to hold a June primary in Michigan while remaining deadlocked in Florida.
Reflecting how tense the situation has become, influential fund-raisers for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton have stepped up their behind-the-scenes pressure on national party leaders to resolve the matter, with some even threatening to withhold their donations to the Democratic National Committee unless it seats the delegates from the two states or holds new primaries there.
The committee penalized Michigan and Florida for holding their primaries early in violation of national party rules, barring their delegates from being seated at the Democratic convention this summer. But with the Democratic contest now a scramble for every remaining delegate, the allocation of delegates from the two states could have a substantial impact on the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton won the primaries in both states, but the contests were not sanctioned by the party, neither candidate campaigned in the states and Mr. Obama did not even put his name on the ballot in Michigan.
Pushing to seat the Florida delegates, at least one top Clinton fund-raiser, Paul Cejas, a Miami businessman who has given the Democratic National Committee $63,500 since 2003, has demanded Democratic officials return his 2007 contribution of $28,500, which they have agreed to do.
“If you’re not going to count my vote, I’m not going to give you my money,” said Mr. Cejas, who was the United States ambassador to Belgium from 1998 to 2001.
Christopher Korge, a Florida real estate developer who is another top fund-raiser for Mrs. Clinton, held an event last year in his home that brought in about $140,000 for the national party, which was set aside in a special account for the general election battle in Florida. But he told committee officials this week that if Florida’s delegate conundrum was not settled satisfactorily he would be asking for the money back.
“If we do not resolve this issue,” Mr. Korge said, “I think it’s safe to say there will be a request for a return of $140,000.”
Quite a pickle the DNC is in - seat the Florida delegations and perhaps hand the nomination to Hillary (which would greatly anger the Obama people), or play fair, and lose a lot of money for the fall campaign.
Which way will it go?
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Nomination, Florida, Hillary Clinton, Michigan
March 15th, 2008
Geraldine Ferarro had to resign from the Hillary campaign for saying “If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept.” For this comment, she’s been called a racist. Was there really anything racist about it? No. Of course not. It all comes back to the ultimate truth that Barack Obama is a media star and has avoided a lot of scrutiny because of his race. Hillary has gone from presumed frontrunner for the Democratic nomination to fighting for survival because while the media has treated her far more severely than Barack Obama.
I’ve watched the two of them debate a number of times, and it was ridiculously apparent that she was getting tougher treatment. She can’t even attack Obama without accusations of racial insensitivity being raised. To bring up Obama’s past cocaine use is apparently racist. To mention his middle name is xenophobic and racist. To show his picture in an attack is racist. Barack Obama has become virtually untouchable in this campaign because his race has been used as a shield to protect him scrutiny.
Ferraro may have not chosen the best words to make her point — certain in defending herself she seems to be digging herself further into an whole — but there was nothing racist about what she was saying. Keith Olbermann equating her words with that of David Duke actually quite proves Ferraro’s point.
I’m sorry, but Geraldine Ferraro’s comments are far less offensive than the rhetoric of Barack Obama’s pastor and spiritual mentor, Jeremiah Wright:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAYe7MT5BxM]
But, I’m sure I’ll be called a racist for daring to talk about this.
UPDATE: More from Michael Graham.
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Nomination, Hillary Clinton, Jeremiah Wright, race baiting, racism
March 13th, 2008
Unless one of the Democrats drops out, there is no way for either of them to secure a first ballot nominating majority at the Democratic convention - and without such a first ballot nominee, literally anything is possible because the pledged delegates are only pledged to vote for their candidate on the first ballot; after that, they are free to do what they wish. Naturally, most delegates will cling to their candidate, but if it goes two or three ballots with no winner, then all sorts of pressures and passions will arise.
This is important because the Democratic coalition isn’t exactly a community of shared interests - other than a generalised desire to have themselves in power rather than Republicans, there’s really not too much in common between the constituent parts of the Democratic party. Union members and Hollywood elites? Black evangelicals and white homosexuals? Urban metrosexuals and Catholic hispanics? Yeah, just a bunch of peas in a pod. In reality, there are deep fissures in the Democratic party - papered over with a promise of government swag (in varied forms) for all, but vulnerable if a fight breaks out between the parts.
You make one part of that crazy-quilt mad, and what would make them stick to the party? The loyalty a blue collar steel worker feels towards a performance artist from San Francisco? In the fact that it is a woman vs a black man, we already have two major Democratic constituencies (African-Americans and feminists) at loggerheads - and as Obama and Hillary dodge and weave and try to please enough delegates to secure a nomination, they will run the daily risk of alienating parts of the party while trying to curry favor with other parts of the party. Eventually a nominee will be settled on, but not before a great deal of confusion, anger and resentment is built into the party apparatus. Add into this the various outside pressure groups who will descend upon the convention to shout their desires in front of the television cameras and add to the din of competing special interests. Can you imagine trying to craft a platform in such a bedlam? With no one controlling the daily message, the kook left might actually make it on to national television!
And it was the kook left making it on to television (really, in their television debut) in 1968 which did more than anything else to ensure Nixon was elected President. Never a very popular man, Nixon appeared calm and reasonable and the GOP a party of adults compared to the insane frenzy of the Democrats that year. This year, that very same kook left - artfully placed on the sideilnes since the days of “Sister Boom Boom” at the 1984 Democratic convention - will be without a leash and without a minder…two teams will actually be competing for their support in order to secure the nomination, and that means the left will be prominent, front and center, as it were.
The poison in American politics emanates from the Democratic party - with their bizarre collection of constituencies it is really only a sense of shared hatreds which unifies them for a national campaign…in this year, as in 1968, those hatred may very well be turned internally, as Democrats fight each other for the ragged bones of raw political power. If this happens, then the result will be the same as 1968.
Tags: Democratic Convention, Democratic Nomination
March 6th, 2008
If she comes out a loser by March 4th, will Hillary concede the race to Obama, even if Obama doesn’t have a first ballot majority? I don’t know - for the good of the party, unless Hillary can win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania on March 4th, it will be time for her to quit. On the other hand, I’ve never noticed an actual concern for non-Clinton from a Clinton:
11:09PM - The RCP delegate count on the Dem side is: Obama 1231, Clinton 1196. Due to the Democrats’ proportional system, that spread could fluctuate greatly either way, but it’s going be difficult if not impossible for Clinton to retake the lead. Which means that unless one drops out, this thing will go to the convention.
Now if Obama carries Wisconsin next week, the pressure on Clinton to end it will grow tremendously. She’s trying to hang on until March 4, when Texas and Ohio vote, but almost no one in the party wants this thing to go to the convention. If Clinton can keep it close, using her superdelegates to take the nomination might be tolerable. But if it isn’t close, Clinton risks being seen as stealing the nomination, which would tear the party apart. - BLAKE DVORAK
Unless one of them drops out, neither candidate is likely to win a first-ballot nominating majority - which means it is a matter of one surrendering, or a brokered convention, with all its risks of a intra-party knife fight for the nomination. For Hillary, it is going to be a tough calculation - if she loses this nomination, then it might be 2016 before she has a shot at it again, and she’ll be pushing 69 by then, as well as being very much yesterday’s news. Pretty much, its 2008, or not at all for a woman who very, very much wants to be President. On the other hand, if she hangs in there she could poison the well - and if she manages to get the nomination even after Obama wins most of the States (and/or garners the higher number of actual votes), then she risks a massive drop-off in Democratic votes in November as disheartened Obama supporters just stay home.
For Obama, the problem is how to ease Hillary out of the contest and convince her to loyally back him in the fall - no easy task, and it may prove impossible. The Democrats - and especially Obama - just might finally discover what a nasty set of politicians they retained when they failed to get rid of the Clintons in 1998 when they had the chance, and the horrid mistake they made in giving them another shot by pulling Hillary into New York in 2000. The Clintons have been past-masters at the nasty, knee-to-groin political battle - all the horrible stuff the left assigns to Karl Rove in politics is actually the patented property of Clinton, Inc. Obama, to have a smooth ride into the fall, needs to defuse this - to get rid of it without appearing to totally ditch the Clintons.
Of course, the Democrats could put Humpty-Dumpty together lickety split, and go into the fall united and trounce the GOP led by John McCain. The rosy scenario, however, should be ignored - Democrats have to start thinking about how to get out of their current nominating mess, and work on how to defeat a rather popular John McCain who far outclasses both Democrats in wisdom and experience.
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Nomination, Hillary Clinton
February 13th, 2008
The political blood begins to flow:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has replaced campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, naming longtime aide Maggie Williams to the top job.
Solis Doyle announced the shift in an e-mail to the staff on Sunday.
“I have been proud to manage this campaign and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than 16 years,” Solis Doyle wrote. “Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.”
The move comes a day after rival Barack Obama swept contests in Washington state, Nebraska, Louisiana.
Solis Doyle said she will serve as a senior adviser to Clinton and the campaign, and travel with Clinton from time to time.
Hillary is trying to spin this as a natural progression - that Solis Doyle got her this far, and now its just time for someone else to lead the fight to the finish…Hillary is attempting this spin because the Clintons’ lie all the time, never get punished for it, and assume that any lie they say will be believed at least amongst their core supporters. Solis Doyle is being fired because of the failures in the Clinton campaign…they might be Solis Doyle’s failures, they might not…but in such things, its always the campaign manager who gets the blame. So, out she goes…and if Hillary had just said that, I’d start to have some respect for her.
At any rate, Hillary is in trouble, knows it, and is searching for the talisman which will stop Obama…we’ll see if she can find it.
UPDATE: Byron York over at NRO’s The Corner ain’t buying - he’s figuring its all part of a Clintonite ploy to make it look like things are bad for her. This theory cannot be dismissed, given the rank dishonesty of all things Clinton.
Tags: Democratic Nomination, Hillary Clinton
February 10th, 2008
Interesting:
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party’s White House nominating contests.
“The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario,” Dean said according to excerpts of an interview with NY1 television.
In state nominating contests so far, no clear winner has emerged among Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the party’s nomination ahead of November’s presidential vote to replace George W. Bush in the White House.
“I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement,” said Dean, who failed in his bid for the party’s nomination in 2004.
“Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention — that would not be good news for either party.”
What is it with Democrats and their fear of democracy? Right now, Democrats are battling it out for the heart and soul of the Democratic party - for Howard Dean to come along and say, “doesn’t matter, we’ll fix things up behind closed doors” is an insult to the energy and passion being shown all around American politics this year. It is also enormously funny - for we GOPers.
You see, we know the Democratic scam - we can see right through Dean, Hillary - and Obama. Its all about power, prestige and money…if you think there’s an actual idea back there, then you just haven’t been paying attention. Aside from a rote, knee-jerk slavery to various special interests (most notably the abortion industry and the public sector unions), these guys are just shadow-boxing and pretending there’s a dime’s worth of difference between Hillary and Obama (if Obama is for change and hope, Hillary is for hope, and she’ll leave us some change, if we’re lucky). Obama just sounds a lot better than Hillary - in the fundamentals, he’s a Hillary clone (and Hillary is a Bill clone is a Carter clone is a Mondale clone, etc, etc, etc).
We’ll see how this comes out - brawl resulting in an unhappy compromise, or backroom deal resulting in unhappy compromise.
Tags: Barack Obama, brokered convention, Democratic Nomination, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean
February 7th, 2008
Real Clear Politics notes that Hillary’s national polling advantage over Obama has evaporated.
Southern Political Reports notes a Romney surge in Georgia.
Byron York over at NRO notes a Romney surge in California.
An NPR poll (PDF) of 1,000 likely voters shows McCain with a slight national lead over both Obama and Hillary.
Ramussen notes that the delegate count still favors McCain.
Its going to be a long day of politics, Americans.
UPDATE: Obama surges to big polling lead in California, Romney also up strong in California, but McCain solid in New York and New Jersey.
UPDATE: Reminder of what is at stake: Mossad says Iran to have nukes in three years.
UPDATE: Huckabee wins West Virginia after McCain supporters shift to him to prevent a Romney win.
UPDATE: Victor Davis Hanson with some observations on the anti-McCain animus:
Among the anti-McCain camp there has been a willingness to contextualize the prior Reagan pragmatism and apostasies on amnesty, taxes, nuclear disarmament, foreign policy, the creation of larger government, and judicial appointments. And the same generous consideration of context is used to explain Romney’s rather amazing liberal stances on the Reagan legacy, gays, abortion, etc. in his 1990s political career in Massachusetts.
It is clear that pragmatism or expediency is not seen as a sin greater than erroneous conviction, in the sense that it is to be understandable that Romney had to do or say some liberal things in blue-Boston to get elected, but that McCain did them willingly when he did not have to in red Arizona. Or maybe it is the magnitude of the sin (McCain-Feingold is felt worse than once being pro-choice and distancing oneself from Reagan)? Or perhaps the chronology of the sin (the 1990s were then, 2007 is now)?
Me: It is CFR plus “Gang of 14″, as far as I can see - with the immigration bill just being a cap to the whole thing (after all, it was President Bush leading the charge on that, not John McCain). Boiling it down even further, I put the largest emphasis on the “Gang of 14″ - one thing we conservatives really worked for was a conservative President who would appoint conservative judges who would then change the judicial rules to allow us to put liberalism and conservatism on the ballot, and thus see the complete triumph of conservatism. McCain’s action in giving the Democrats cover for their obstructionism infuriated the conservative base, and now that the GOP has lost the Senate and there’s a strong propsect of a Democratic President in 2009, the conservative base is not in a forgiving mood; we might have lost our ability to change the judiciary for 4 to 8 years, with Lord only knows what prospects of uber-liberal judges being appointed interim. McCain’s repeated emphasis on how he’ll appoint conservative judges is evidence that he understands just what he did to tick the base off.
It was a terrible error on the part of McCain to work with the Democrats on the matter of judicial appointments - bi-partisanship is fine, but the plain fact of the matter is that Democrats were being ruthlessly and unfairly obstructionist against perfectly qualified judges, and it was a time to fight tooth and nail, not compromise with people who were not playing by the rules. Can McCain overcome this error and win the nomination? If he wins the nomination, can he overcome conservative resentment? Time will tell.
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Nomination, GOP Nomination, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Super Tuesday
February 5th, 2008
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