Is Hillary Really Finished?
Jay Cost over at Real Clear Politics says, no, and here’s why:
…Oxendine says in his analysis of Indiana and North Carolina: “Appalachia didn’t budge [on Tuesday]. She is going to absolutely blow him out of the water in West VA and KY.”
So, here’s my question. What happens to “It’s Over” if Clinton pulls a 40-point victory in West Virginia on Tuesday, then follows it up a week later with a 30-point victory in Kentucky? If these states turn out in the same margins that states since March 4th have averaged, that would imply a net of about 290,000 votes for Clinton. That puts her within striking distance of a reasonable popular vote victory. “Over” will be over as we turn our attention to Puerto Rico.
For some time now, there has been very little chance of Hillary overtaking Obama in the pledged delegate race - really, since Super Tuesday, Hillary’s path to victory has revolved around her securing a larger percentage of the popular vote as a means of convincing super delegates that Obama can’t win in the fall, so they may as well back her, who has shown she has a chance. This is, actually, a very valid theory - but it ignores the fact that Hillary is despised by the ultra-left and his mistrusted by an apparant majority of the American people. In other words, even if it could be demonstrated that Hillary has more votes than Obama and is the stronger fall candidate, some Democrats might still go with Obama, just to get a clean break with Clinton. Meanwhile, however, there is no reason for Hillary to quit - not yet, at any rate.
5 comments May 10th, 2008
