The Florida and Michigan Icebergs For the SS Democrat

Tom Bevan over at Real Clear Politics points out the un-exploded hand grenade:

Clinton may be a slight favorite as we head beyond Super Tuesday, but this is still a very close race that will be competitive for a long time, precisely because Clinton and Obama are splitting the Democratic electorate down the middle: he’s winning young, she’s winning old; he’s winning upper income, she’s winning lower income; he’s winning Blacks, she’s winning Hispanics; he’s winning men, she’s winning women.

There is no reason to assume the voting patterns we’ve seen on the Democratic side won’t continue. And if you look at the calendar moving forward, Obama should have the upper hand over the next three weeks until we get to Texas and Ohio on March 4th.

If the back and forth continues, as it most likely will, and neither Clinton nor Obama are able to reach the magic number of delegates, then we’re going to circle back for a really nasty fight over Michigan and Florida.

For the last week the Clinton campaign has been laying the groundwork to push the DNC to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida, which would obviously be advantageous for her and potentially put her over the top.

But such a move would also rend the party in two, with Obama supporters taking the understandable position that Clinton was trying to steal the nomination by changing the rules of the game midstream…

It would be poetic justice if the Democrats started to rip themselves to shreds over a move by Hillary to change the election rules midstream - after all, the entirety of 2008 on the part of the Democrats is revenge for Florida 2000; they want to win this, at bottom, so they can get back at Bush…and why get back at Bush? Because back in 2000, it was President-elect Bush who got the US Supreme Court to stop Democrat attempts to change Florida’s election rules midstream. What goes around does, sometime, come around…and Michigan and Florida might be the cosmic payback for Democratic attempts to steal the 2000 election.

That aside, if Hillary and Obama do end up in a de-facto tie, then the pressure on Hillary to get the Flroida and Michigan delegations seated will be intense, as will the pressure on Obama to stop it from happening. Who backs down? Which one of them concedes an excellent chance of being elected President in the name of party amity? If Hillary is denied, do her supporters go to an Obama which prevented Florida and Michigan from having a say in the Democratic nominee? If Obama is denied, do his supporters forgive Hillary for a political dirty trick which denied their man the nomination?

Fun, fun, fun - and, as I’ve said, buckle yourselves in for a long, political ride in 2008.

Tags: 2000 Campaign, 2008 Campaign, Michigan Primary

36 comments February 6th, 2008

Still No GOP Frontrunner; And McCain Has Most to Worry About

As Patrick Ruffini points out over at Town Hall - Romney, of course, won in Michigan; the “must win” State for him…but it was how he won over McCain which really shows the mountain McCain has to climb:

Romney won conservatives 41-23%, with 20% for Huckabee.
Romney won Republicans 41-27%.
Romney won Evangelicals 34-29% for Huckabee. McCain took just 23%.
Romney won with those satisfied with President Bush 45-24%. Yes, Republicans are split 50-50 on this, but it’s easier to message around support for the party’s leader rather than opposition to him. McCain always has to tread gingerly on this to avoid angering what institutional support he has.

This is an exact replay of McCain’s weakness in 2000 - he does well with everyone but core Republicans and as the primary process is a party nominating process, it stands to reason that party stalwarts will tend to rule the roost. McCain isn’t out of the running - not by a long shot - but in order for him to close the deal and be able to compete in the upcoming primaries (which tend to be more GOP-base in orientation), McCain is going to have to offer stalwart Republicans assurances that a President McCain won’t go have a love-fest with the Democrats at the expense of core GOP ideals.

Meanwhile, Romney showed he could win a primary - he had to run as if he were running for governor of Michigan, but a win is a win…the problem for Romney is to translate this Michigan victory into a national victory; a task hard enough on its own, made harder by the fact that Michigan’s GOP isn’t exaclty South Carolina’s GOP.

It could be that after the South Carolina primary we’re faced with this oddity: Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire, Romney won Michigan…and we could see Giuliani winning Nevada, and then Thompson winning South Carolina. Five contests, five different winners, each with a plausible path to the nomination in front of him…and I’ll get to pat myself on the back about how prescient I was about a brokered GOP convention…

Tags: 2008 Campaign, Fred Thompson, Michigan Primary, Rudy Giuliani

9 comments January 16th, 2008

Michigan Primary

According to Drudge, the exit polls show:

Romney 34%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 16%

UPDATE: Romney projected winner… Hillary defeats “uncommitted.”

With 51% reporting:

Romney: 39%
McCain: 30%
Huckabee: 16%
Paul: 6%
Thompson: 4%
Giuliani: 3%
Uncommitted: 2%
Hunter: 0%

Tags: 2008 Campaign, Michigan Primary

26 comments January 15th, 2008