Posts with the tag 'Mike Huckabee'

Huckabee’s Time of Choosing

From Real Clear Politics:

9:25PM - Via ABC News, a statement from McCain communication director Jill Hazelbaker: “After tonight it is mathematically impossible for Governor Huckabee to secure the nomination. With regard to VA, Of course we’d like to win every race by wide margins, but we are accumulating the delegates we need to become the Republican nominee. Going forward, we will continue to work to unite the Republican party to defeat a liberal Democrat in November.”

Translation: If Huckabee wants to remain in McCain’s good graces, get out. - BLAKE DVORAK

Yeah, that’s how I read it, too. And in all honesty, Huckabee’s continued campaign now has no point and the only thing it could possibly do is weaken McCain for the fall campaign - and if Huckabee thinks the GOP electorate will reward spoiling with a future nomination, then he just doesn’t understand the dynamics of GOP politics. Now - or, at latest, a week from now - is the chance for Huckabee to retire from the scene gracefully. He fought a good fight on a shoestring, but it didn’t work out - better luck in the future (and stay away from Hagee’s church!).

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Huckabee, please drop out now.

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11 comments February 13th, 2008

Open Thread: Potomac Primary

Little late off the mark, but here we go:

Obama seems to have won a crushing victory in Virginia while on the GOP side Virginia is too close to call (I’m still betting on a substantial McCain win in VA, after all is said and done). About 45 minutes until the polls close in Maryland and DC.

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Things are looking good for Barack Obama (D-Rezko)…

Virginia too close to call between John McCain and Mike Huckabee.

If Hillary loses all contests tonight, expect the gloves to really come off soon… Her campaign is sure to leak something to the media about Obama.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: RCP is reporting that a judge in Maryland is keeping the polls open late - bad weather is leading to bad traffic, delaying people on the way to vote; means we might not get Maryland results as soon as thought.

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: McCain projected winner of Virginia… Out of the race, but still on the ballot, Romney got 25% of the vote.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: And with 65% reporting, McCain is winning VA by 48% to 44%; that is substantial, in my world; now with 75% in, McCain 49%, Huckabee 43%; now with 83% reporting, McCain 50%, Huckabee 41%.

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Karl Rove says it’s not going to be a good night for Huckabee. I say it’s time for Huckabee to throw in the towel.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: RCP is saying that it is now mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win; not sure about that, myself, but the plain fact of the matter is that Huckabee pressing on from here will start to harm his future prospects.

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Maryland for McCain.

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Obama and McCain sweep Potomac Primary.

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36 comments February 12th, 2008

John Bolton Endorses McCain

Its coming in pretty fast and furious now - the party uniting behind the presumptive nominee:

ARLINGTON, VA — U.S. Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign today announced that former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton has endorsed John McCain for president. Ambassador Bolton issued the following statement on his endorsement:”John McCain was very active and supportive during my confirmation hearings to be the U.S. Ambassador to the UN. His belief in me at that time was a testament to his courage to fight the liberals in the Senate and vigorously advance American interests at the UN.

“I whole-heartedly endorse John McCain for President because when he takes office in January 2009 he will be prepared immediately to lead us. John will not need on the job training.

“American conservatives will have a President they can be proud of in John McCain.”

John McCain thanked Ambassador Bolton for his support, stating, “I have long admired John Bolton’s lifetime of service to our nation. From his work in the Reagan Administration to his most recent post at the UN, John Bolton has always been a stalwart defender of American national security interests and an effective advocate for advancing democracy and liberty around the world. I am humbled and honored to have his support.”

As an aside, I can’t think of anyone better to be Secretary of State in a McCain Administration than John Bolton.

The only real hold-out now is Mike Huckabee - even Ron Paul seems to be getting ready to stand down. An open piece of advice to Huckabee’s people: talk to the man, get him to exit gracefully before he starts to embarras himself.

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26 comments February 10th, 2008

Primaries Tonight

I’m tired… feel free to discuss the primary results tonight…

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: I’m not quite so tired, but I managed to sleep on the plane a little.

Huckabee had a good night, and the rumor-mill out there is a worry that Huckabee might be able to pull off a win in Texas. I’m not so sure about that - in Louisiana, Huckabee fell short of the necessary votes to immediately secure Louisiana’s delegates, and they’ll now be awarded at a State convention, where they are almost certain to go to McCain. Meanwhile, Huckabee’s crushing victory in Kansas is offset, in delegates, by McCain’s slight win in Washington, and its still mathematically nearly impossible for Huckabee to derail McCain. Blogs for Victory advises Huckabee to pack it in - we’ve got an election to win, not an ego to feed.

Meanhile, Barack Obama scored huge today, and that means he’s probably tied - if not slightly ahead - of Hillary in the delegate count. Word is that in upcoming primaries, however, Hillary should do fairly well…which means that there won’t be a Democratic nominee until at least the end of March, and my feeling is that its becoming very hard for the Democrats to avoid an open convention.

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15 comments February 9th, 2008

Super Tuesday Results

Here we’ll list who won:

Huckabee wins West Virginia.

Obama wins Georgia; UPDATE - appears to be an amazingly crushing victory for Obama, too.

Romney: Massachusetts, North Dakota, Utah, Montana, Colorado, Minnesota

McCain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, California, Missouri, Arizona, Oklahoma,

Huckabee: West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee

Hillary: Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, California

Obama: Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Delaware, Alaska, Idaho, Colorado, Missouri, Connecticut, Utah, Kansas, Minnesota, Delaware

UPDATE: New Jersey too close to call on the Democrat side - potentially very bad news for Hillary; if Obama wins this State, then there will start to be a strong argument that Hillary should back out and leave the field clear for Obama, especially if McCain wraps it up on the GOP side tonight.

UPDATE: Hillary’s win in Massachusetts with most of the political establishment going for Obama is quite a feather in her cap…

UPDATE: Bad news for McCain? Arizona not immediately called for him…

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Barack Obama just spoke… Man… he does a lot of talking without really saying anything. So many people fooled by his warm and fuzzy rhetoric.

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: Hillary and McCain win in California.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Delegate count;

Hillary: 656 (Ed. Note: Wonder if she’ll win ten more tonight?)

Obama: 559

McCain: 522

Romney: 223

Huckabee: 142

Turnout: Reports I’ve read indicate Democrats turned out 2 to 1 over GOPers in these primaries. Part of that is a function of where the voting took place - New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, Massachusetts; all large population States with heavy Democratic registration, but still has to put the GOP on notice that the base needs to be energised - the best way to do this is with a dynamic “Contract with America” sort of campaign message for the fall.

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38 comments February 5th, 2008

Fred Thompson Drops Out

Inevitable for sure… but still shocking, considering all the hype leading up to his entering the race.

Republican Fred Thompson, the actor-politician who attracted more attention as a potential presidential candidate than as a real one, quit the race for the White House on Tuesday after a string of poor finishes in early primary and caucus states.

“Today, I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort,” the former Tennessee senator said in a brief statement.

Thompson’s fate was sealed last Saturday in the South Carolina primary, when he finished third in a state that he had said he needed to win.

In the statement, Thompson did not say whether he would endorse any of his former rivals. He was one of a handful of members of Congress who supported Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2000 in his unsuccessful race against George W. Bush for the party nomination.

Reaction later.

UPDATE: So, what’s my reaction? I’m not sure what to think. I never understood the Fred Fever that boiled in the months leading up to his officially throwing his hat in. But he dominated in our online straw poll, and most bloggers I knew were all for him. I said some months ago that Fred Thompson’s best day happened before he got in the race, and that appears to be the case. While his message may have resonated, his performance otherwise was lacking. The big question now is whom will his supporters turn to now? There’s no simple answer. Thompson came into the race as an alternative to the original slate of candidates… I’m not sure if Thompson’s support was really about Thompson himself or if it was about a desperate desire to find anoint someone as the next Reagan.

Who will this help? Some are saying it will help Huckabee, but I’m not so sure. If it does, than that should be a concern for Rudy Giuliani, who is banking his entire candidacy on Florida and is in 3rd place with 19%, according to the latest Rasmussen poll, with Huckabee at 13%.

The fact is, it is a different race now than it was last fall. Thompson supporters may be more open to the original top tier candidates than they were. I guess we’ll find out soon who is really helped by Thompson’s departure.

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21 comments January 22nd, 2008

Still No GOP Frontrunner; And McCain Has Most to Worry About

As Patrick Ruffini points out over at Town Hall - Romney, of course, won in Michigan; the “must win” State for him…but it was how he won over McCain which really shows the mountain McCain has to climb:

Romney won conservatives 41-23%, with 20% for Huckabee.
Romney won Republicans 41-27%.
Romney won Evangelicals 34-29% for Huckabee. McCain took just 23%.
Romney won with those satisfied with President Bush 45-24%. Yes, Republicans are split 50-50 on this, but it’s easier to message around support for the party’s leader rather than opposition to him. McCain always has to tread gingerly on this to avoid angering what institutional support he has.

This is an exact replay of McCain’s weakness in 2000 - he does well with everyone but core Republicans and as the primary process is a party nominating process, it stands to reason that party stalwarts will tend to rule the roost. McCain isn’t out of the running - not by a long shot - but in order for him to close the deal and be able to compete in the upcoming primaries (which tend to be more GOP-base in orientation), McCain is going to have to offer stalwart Republicans assurances that a President McCain won’t go have a love-fest with the Democrats at the expense of core GOP ideals.

Meanwhile, Romney showed he could win a primary - he had to run as if he were running for governor of Michigan, but a win is a win…the problem for Romney is to translate this Michigan victory into a national victory; a task hard enough on its own, made harder by the fact that Michigan’s GOP isn’t exaclty South Carolina’s GOP.

It could be that after the South Carolina primary we’re faced with this oddity: Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire, Romney won Michigan…and we could see Giuliani winning Nevada, and then Thompson winning South Carolina. Five contests, five different winners, each with a plausible path to the nomination in front of him…and I’ll get to pat myself on the back about how prescient I was about a brokered GOP convention…

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9 comments January 16th, 2008

Michigan Primary

According to Drudge, the exit polls show:

Romney 34%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 16%

UPDATE: Romney projected winner… Hillary defeats “uncommitted.”

With 51% reporting:

Romney: 39%
McCain: 30%
Huckabee: 16%
Paul: 6%
Thompson: 4%
Giuliani: 3%
Uncommitted: 2%
Hunter: 0%

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26 comments January 15th, 2008

New Hampshire Primary… McCain… Clinton…

It’s on. Predictions… thoughts… reports?

UPDATE:
Mitt Romney, John McCain Both Predicting Wins in Granite State
Obama, McCain Lead in Early (Negligible) NH Voting
GOP’s Thompson in SC instead of NH
NH primary could make, break candidacies
Analysis: NH win could launch McCain

Early returns (7% reporting) shown on Fox show Hillary and Obama neck-and-neck (37 and 36% respectively), and McCain with a good edge over Romney (38 to 28%).

Some early thoughts: If Huckabee comes in a distant third, he loses any momentum he gained in Iowa. If Romney comes in second, especially a close second, he’s still in the race. If McCain holds his early lead and wins by 10 points or so, it could be a two man race between him and Romney again. Ron Paul could defeat Huckabee.

UPDATE: Exit polls via Fox:

McCain: 35%
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 13%

Obama: 39%
Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 18%

Here are my thoughts if these figures hold out… Hillary is still in the race, and could easily bounce back. Obama may be in a good position with two victories, but I’d have thought his bounce from Iowa would have been bigger.

For Huckabee to go from 1st place in Iowa to 3rd place is not good. He may have jumped in the polls from Iowa, but his inability to at least come in a close second only highlights the fact that his victory in Iowa came courtesy of the Evangelical vote. If Huckabee can only win a primary when there’s a high population of evangelical Christians, than it’s going to be a long primary season and a potential brokered convention.

UPDATE, 8:11 PM ET: Fox projects McCain winner in GOP primary…

UPDATE: Clinton still edging out Obama 40-35% with 13% reporting… Can Hillary win tonight

UPDATE, 8:53 PM ET: Clinton: 40% Obama 34% (23% reporting)

What if Obama loses?

Michael Barone says Hillary could take New Hampshire…

UPDATE, 9:33 PM ET: Revised/updated exit poll:
Clinton: 39%
Obama: 37%
Edwards: 16%

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Here’s my insightful commentary - wow!

This is just amazing - and while the talking heads are saying that Edwards is out, I think there is no reason for anyone, on either side, to back out. I’m settling in for a long primary fight.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Fox News is reporting that the Culinary Union out here in Nevada, which was set to endorse Obama, is now holding off. Hillary and Obama are both locked in a tight fight here in Nevada - the Culinary is a massively important union in Nevada. For Democrats, its the brass ring…and if this report is correct, then it would be an indicator that the Democratic power structure has decided that Obama must be stopped. Keep in mind - next up is us in Nevada; our caucuses are on January 19th.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Edwards isn’t backing out…actually says he’s in the race to the convention!

UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: MSNBC projects Hillary win…

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Obama puts down the marker - he’s going to end the war in Iraq; he’s letting the left know that he’s their man. This is where the battle lines will be drawn: the left for Obama, the old-line Democratic establishment for Hillary. Who will win? As an aside, Obama says he’s in this to let the people take back their nation - top donors to Obama? People who work in insurance and lobbyists…there’s a big bunch ‘o change, huh?

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54 comments January 8th, 2008

What Does Iowa Mean?

First and foremost, it is a day all Americans can be proud of - a black American won a caucus in a mostly-white State, indicating that whatever racism remains in America, it is vestigal and of no great consequence. Race-baiters like Jackson and Sharpton will still shout “racism” at the drop of the hat, but America has largely gotten past race as an issue. Obama won in Iowa because a plurality of Democrats believed he will be the best man to recapture the White House - and the fact that he is black, as far as I can determine, made no difference at all…and in the measuring of the man against other Democrats and prospective GOP opponents, his chances are not predicated (plus or minus) on account of his race.

Second, while Hillary polls well nationally among Democrats, when faced with the true-blue, dyed-in-the-wool Democrats who attend caucuses, it has been demonstrated that Hillary Clinton lacks that magnetism which pulled Democrats over to Bill Clinton time and time again. This doesn’t mean she can’t get nominated, but it does demonstrate that all the talk of an inevitible Hillary nomination was just so much gas from people who, apparantly, haven’t bothered to check with rank-and-file Democrats about how they feel about her.

Third, to say the GOP race is wide-open is to understate the unsettled nature of GOP politics. GOP rank-and-file are looking for someone who can lead them to victory in 2008, and they are unsure whom it will be - except among Evangelical Christians, who have fallen rock-solid behind Mike Huckabee (word is that Evangelical participation in Iowa was double that of 2000). This doesn’t mean that Huckabee will now cruise to the nomination (Evangelicals are a major part of the GOP coalition, but they aren’t a majority of GOP voters), but it does mean that Huckabee is someone who can’t be easily dismissed - and, also, that whomever the GOP nominates will have to pay close attention to the issues dearest to Evangelical Christians (abortion, gay marriage, defense of Christian morality, etc.).

How this will all play out in the upcoming primaries and caucuses is anyone’s guess - will Edwards voters gravitate to Obama, or to Hillary? If Hillary continues to fall, will there be a late-arriving Gore in the Democratic race? Will a Romney win in NH really help him that much? Is Giuliani’s plan of winning late still viable? To al these and a score other questions I answer: I dunno.

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92 comments January 4th, 2008

Hillary Falls In Iowa

A new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released today shows Obama on top, with Edwards trailing by four, and Hillary Clinton back in third in Iowa.

What does this mean? It’s hard to say, Iowa polls have been all over the place, so the only thing we should take from this latest poll is that anything can happen. I’m still thinking that Obama is not going to come out on top, but if he does, it could be fatal to Hillary’s candidacy. If Hillary doesn’t win, she better hope that John Edwards comes in first, because an Edwards victory in Iowa, in my opinion, would hurt her less in New Hampshire. Both Obama and Clinton need to win Iowa to get some momentum over the other. If the perception of electability in the general election is as important to caucus-goers this year as it was in 2004, than I think that helps Edwards more than Hillary or Obama.

As for the GOP, I think Mitt Romney will come out on top. Huckabee may have been surging in the polls recently, but that may not make up for the fact that winning Iowa is a key part of Romney’s strategy and therefore he’s been building up a good operation on the ground that will be hard to overcome. If Romney doesn’t win the Iowa caucuses, he’s in trouble.

As for Huckabee’s surge, I don’t dismiss it, but one can’t ignore that since his surge, he was open to attacks and criticism that he largely avoided previously. He also comes across as less able to handle foreign policy, and he clearly appears to be the easiest GOP candidate for the Democrats to beat in November. If the perception of electability is as important to Republican caucus-goers as it is to Democrat caucus-goers, than John McCain and Mitt Romney should benefit the most… however, if Republican caucus-goers think Romney’s Mormonism will be a problem, than McCain experience the bigger boost.

What will be really interesting to see is McCain’s performance. If he can come in second place, it will be good shot in the arm for his campaign and an indication that the message in his recent ad campaigns have worked.

As of this moment, I’m thinking John Edwards and Mitt Romney will be the winners. The second and third place positions for both parties could go either way…

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23 comments January 3rd, 2008

Governor Huckabee, You’ll Want to Cancel This Campaign Stop

Well, you’ll want to - if you want to gain the GOP nomination:

San Antonio, TX, Dec 20, 2007 (CNA).- The Republican presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee, has been garnering attention in the media with his surge in political polls. However, a campaign stop this Sunday by Huckabee at a mega-church whose pastor sees Hitler as linked to the Catholic Church, could soon steal the spotlight.

According to Mike Huckabee’s campaign website, the controversial stop at Cornerstone Church in San Antonio, Texas will take place this Sunday, December 23. He will speak at the church’s two Sunday services at 8:30 and 11:00 a.m.

The Catholic League’s president, Bill Donahue, told CNA that the pastor of the church, Rev. John Hagee, is militantly anti-Catholic.

As the senior pastor of Cornerstone, Rev. Hagee is best known for his “End-Time” writing but also focuses on bringing evangelical Protestants and Jews together.

The Catholic League asserts that John Hagee has another goal as well, “slandering the Catholic Church.”

Hagee has the long-standing litany of anti-Catholicism down pat - Crusades, Inquisition and Hitler; its all our fault, ’cause the Pope is the Anti-Christ (which Pope isn’t determined - though our guess is that its whomever happens to be Pope at the moment). While almost all Catholics and Protestants are working more and more closely together - expressing that unity Our Lord desired - there are still some out there who wish to keep the old, worn out hatreds alive. Hagee is one such, and while he’s welcome to his views, I don’t think it appropriate that a man who wishes to be President of the United States should hob-nob with the likes of Hagee. My hope is that Governor Huckabee will find something else to do on Sunday.

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19 comments December 22nd, 2007

Grassroots Blogs For Victory

Tonight, I’d like to introduce our readers to Blogs For Victory’s first grassroots blogs.

Princella Smith and Leo Pusateri, who have been guest blogging with since we were at Blogs for Bush, are each heading up a grassroots blog here at Blogs For Victory. Princella is blogging at Blogs For Mike Huckabee’s Victory, and Leo is blogging at Blogs for Fred Thompson’s Victory.

If you are interested in joining Princella or Leo on either blog, or if you’re interested in blogging for another GOP presidential candidate, feel free to contact me.

UPDATE: A new one blooms… Blogs for Rudy Giuliani’s Victory.

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1 comment December 19th, 2007

Ron Paul Just Digs Himself in Deeper

This clip of Paul on Fox - he says the following regarding Huckabee’s “Merry Christmas” ad:

…reminds me of what Sinclair Lewis said, “when fascism comes it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross”. I don’t know if that if a fair assessment or not but you wonder about using a cross like he is the only Christian or implying that subtly.

This is the statement of a man who doesn’t want my vote. This is a blanket insult to all Christians - that we are, somehow, on a track to fascism because we want to say “Merry Christmas” and are unafraid to proclaim our faith in the public square. Its also a stupid statement - stupid from Lewis who originally made it, and stupid for Paul to repeat it: fascism is anethema to Christianity. The two are entirely incompatible. Fascism asserts that the State may claim all - Christianity says that while we must render to Ceasar what is his, we must only render to God what belongs to God.

If there are fascists in the making out there, they are amongst the people who want to silence others with hate crimes laws and speech codes; who demand equality of result rather than of opportunity; who insist that there is a wall of separation between Church and State (actually, lefties, it is the vibrant Church which is the strongest defense against the tyranny of the State). Paul proves himself ever more to be of the rather kook fringe - whatever his good ideas are (and he has some) they are drowned out by his more bizarre beliefs.

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56 comments December 19th, 2007

Two Brilliant Ads From Mike Huckabee

This one gives a person pause - and starts thinking about ways the whole political world can be turned upside down. This ad merely says “Merry Christmas”, but its going to cause a fuss precisely because of that - with Huckabee saying, “what really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ”. This, for Christians, is no problem - but in 2007 America, a Presidential candidate isn’t supposed to say that, at least not without also praising some non-Christian celebration at the same time. The controversy will arise, and it will do nothing but help Huckabee out - given that he is running an insurgent campaign dependent upon volunteers and enthusiasm to carry him through the early caucuses and primaries - and this will make Evangelical Christians, especially, just that much more enthused for Huckabee. As Peter Robinson over at NRO’s The Corner notes, these ads likely reflect bedrock Huckabee - he doesn’t have the money for an army of consultants and spinmeisters to craft a message, so he pretty much has to do it on his own.

Governor Huckabee has completely blown it, in my book, on matters of foreign and military policy - point blank, he just hasn’t thought the matter through far enough. That, at least, is the only way I can explaine a worldview which is naive, at best. Be that as it may, he’s still miles ahead of any likely Democratic contender and should Huckabee gain the GOP nomination, he’ll get my support - and, actually, these two ads actually help me along because they show a man with a very savvy sense of politics (politics is the art of the possible - and the better a President is at politics, the more he can possibly get done).

I do wish that Governor Huckabee would rethink his foreign policy views and rework his proposals on the matter - failing that, I hope that if he gains the nomination, he picks someone with exemplary foreign/defense policy qualifications to be his VP as well as his prospective SecState and SecDef.

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18 comments December 18th, 2007

Huckabee’s Foreign Policy Inexperience Shows

In this news report:

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) - Mike Huckabee, who has joked about his lack of foreign policy experience, is criticizing the Bush administration’s efforts, denouncing a go-it-alone “arrogant bunker mentality” and questioning decisions on Iraq.

Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor now running for the Republican presidential nomination, lays out a policy plan that is long on optimism but short on details in the January-February issue of the journal Foreign Affairs, which is published by the Council on Foreign Relations. A copy of his article was released Friday.

“American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude, open up, and reach out,” Huckabee said. “The Bush administration’s arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad. My administration will recognize that the United States’ main fight today does not pit us against the world but pits the world against the terrorists.”

Arrogant bunker mentality? The un-ending dance with the UN; the repeated attempts to negotiate with Iran and North Korea; the desire to always have other nations along with us in every international crisis…this is an arrogant bunker mentality? Methinks that Governor Huckabee hasn’t been paying attention to what has actually been happening but has, unfortunately, bought some of the rather foolish critique of President Bush’s foreign policy. If there’s any criticism I’ll lay on Bush’s foreign policy it would be in his being overly patient with foreign policy pinheads who simply will not see the world as it is - if only we actually would go it alone to solve some of the pressing problems of the world!

Governor Huckabee has many good points, but this bit on foreign policy coupled with his over-eager pardons places a very large question mark over whether he has the judgement to be President of the United States.

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35 comments December 15th, 2007

Is Huckabee an “Easy Kill”?

That is what Democrats seem to think - but James Pinkerton injects a note of caution into such a prediction:

…it’s also possible that the Democrats might have miscalculated the Republican race - certainly plenty of Republicans have done so - and now they are spinning, while reassessing.

It’s happened before. Long ago, I worked in Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign. And I well remember Democratic politicos insisting that Reagan was the weakest Republican opponent that Jimmy Carter could face as he sought re-election that year. Was that “psychological warfare” by the Democrats? Or did they really think that the 69-year-old “cowboy” ex-actor - not yet known as “The Great Communicator” - would be the easiest Republican to beat? Probably a little of both.

But we all know this for sure: Reagan carried 44 of 50 states in the election against Carter. So the moral of the story is that predictions from hired-gun spin doctors are not to be trusted.

My Dad loves to tell a story about Ronald Reagan - back in 1966, when Reagan was first running for governor of California, the Democrats were sure he was the easiest GOPer to beat and so were delighted when Reagan gained the GOP nomination. As it turned out, the Democrats needed Reagan like they needed a hole in the head - he bested an incumbant Democrat in a landslide and the rest, as they say, is history. But there was one small bit my Dad really loved about that year - he was working in a rarified field of intellectual endevour and, as it turned out, he was surrounded with a lot of liberals…brilliant scientists, but political pinheads. The day after Reagan won, they were all bemoaning their fate - they didn’t know how Reagan could have won. After all, none of them knew anyone who had voted for Reagan! Trust not the prognostications of elites - they tend to gather in flocks and only talk to each other in an echo chamber of their own ideas. Democrats are especially likely to fall into this catagory.

How 2008 will shake out is beyond anyone’s ability to predict - there is just too much political volatility in a year when there is no incumbant and no annointed successor. The only thing we can be sure about is that 2008 will not be like any political election any of us have ever experienced. Democrats thinking that any GOPer would be an “easy kill” are just fooling themselves.

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20 comments December 14th, 2007

Candidates on Coffee

The AP had an interesting piece this evening on the coffee tastes of the presidential candidates. As serious coffee addict, I had to check it out…

DEMOCRATS:

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton: Sometimes black, sometimes with cream

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards: Doesn’t drink it

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama: Black, but rarely drinks it

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson: Cream

REPUBLICANS:

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani: Splenda, Sweet’n Low or Equal, whichever is available

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: Splenda

Arizona Sen. John McCain: Cappuccino or coffee with cream and sugar

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney: Doesn’t drink it, has been known to have hot chocolate

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson: Cream

Myself… my day must begin with a venti cup of drip coffee from Starbucks, with half-and-half. What really amuses me about this is that most of the answers were consistent. Most either like it black, with cream, or with sugar (or a sugar substitute)… and then there is Hillary who said she has her coffee sometimes black, and sometimes with cream.

Sounds like her ridiculous answer to Tim Russert’s question about which team she would root for if the Cubs and the Yankees ever met in the World Series. Hillary said, “I would probably have to alternate sides.”

It seems like this is another typical have-it-both-ways response from Hillary. Over something as trivial as a coffee preference.

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11 comments December 12th, 2007

Are The Dems Holding Back on Huckabee?

Interesting flash from Drudge.

Democrat party officials are avoiding any and all criticism of Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, insiders reveal.

The Democratic National Committee has told staffers to hold all fire, until he secures the party’s nomination.

The directive has come down from the highest levels within the party, according to a top source.

Within the DNC, Huckabee is known as the “glass jaw — and they’re just waiting to break it.”

So, is this true, or is it reverse psychology? While I don’t doubt that the Democrats are prepared for an all out smear campaign against whomever the Republican nominee is, I am curious about their confidence, though the report makes a good point:

In fact, as the story broke over the weekend that Huckabee said he wanted to isolate AIDS patients back in 1992, the DNC ignored the opportunity to slam the candidate from the left.

“He’ll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill,” mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington.

“His letting out murderers because they shout ‘Jesus’, his wanting to put 300,000 AIDS patients and Magic Johnson into isolation, ain’t even scratching the surface of what we’ve got on him.”

Of course, one could make the argument that any of the top three contenders for the Democratic nomination will be easy to defeat because of one thing or another. But, if I were the Democrats, I’d be more concerned with Huckabee’s potential to lock the Southern vote. His recent issue with his pardons and the old comment about AIDS patients will matter a lot more in the primary than in the general election — but it will likely hurt a lot in the primaries. I would have pegged Huckabee a shoo-in for the VP slot two weeks ago… Now I’m not so sure.

Still, with the baggage Hillary has and the experience Obama doesn’t have I don’t think Democrats are positioned very well for a smear campaign. Oh, and then there’s Edwards, who couldn’t even help Kerry win his home state in 2004.

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