A Brokered GOP Convention?

As Allahpundit noted, my God, it’s full of page views…so, what the heck, I’ll look over Sean Trende’s analysis, too:

… in truth, I’m actually hopeful about this year’s campaign, because I think it could be unlike anything we’ve seen in a very long time. I think the Republican Party really could wind up with a brokered convention – that is, a race where no candidate receives a majority of the delegates by the end of voting. In fact, it might well be the most likely outcome, if only because no particular outcome is particularly probable.

This race is intriguing not just because of one possible outcome. It is interesting because it is difficult even to formulate a workable theory of the race. Charlie Cook uses a brackets metaphor, while Jim Geraghty and Larry Sabato think of the race in terms of tiers, but all of these have problems. Instead, I see a race that is largely chaotic. It is one where an unusually large number of candidates have perfectly plausible paths, if not to the nomination, then at least to lengthy runs deep into the balloting process.

This is because 2016 really is the deepest GOP field in a very, very long time. In fact, it isn’t even close…

It is, indeed, that. In fact, in terms of talent, the GOP has an embarrassment of riches. Contrast this to the pathetic state of the Democrats – to-be-69 year old Hillary; and if the Democrats pass on her they’ve got the intellectual and achievement powerhouses of Biden, Warren and O’Malley to choose from. None of the Democrats can hold an intellectual or achievement candle to even the weakest GOP contenders. The bad news is that the Democrats are still favored to in in 2016, even if worn-out, hacktastic Hillary is the nominee. But, still, there is that chance the GOP can win, so the GOP contest is worth winning and thus we see the large field of contenders. Will it wind up brokered? One is wary of disputing someone like Sean Trende, but I’ll say there isn’t a snowball’s chance in heck of it happening.

To be sure, Trende is right in that each of the contenders represents a certain segment of the GOP base and as the total vote is widely divided, even someone commanding relatively small support could battle far into the primary process and the sum total of all this is that no GOPer obtains a first-ballot, nominating majority and thus a brokered convention. I just don’t think it will work out that way.

The reason I don’t is because there is Scott Walker, and to a lesser extent, Bobby Jindal. Both are successful governors who battled the left and won. Both are youthful (especially compared to the Democrats), energetic and have great biographies. Both, as far as can be told, haven’t so much of a touch of scandal behind them and neither of them bear strong and public connections to the Establishment money-bags of the party. While both have plenty of good points for both Establishment and TEA Party to like, they also neither frighten overmuch the Establishment nor disappoint overmuch the TEA Party base of the GOP. Both are credible with social conservatives without being tied to positions which can turn off independent voters. They can credibly run as anti-government outsiders while being enough on the inside to garner support from low-information-voters who don’t want a war against government, per se. Each of them is a potential Reagan in the sense of being able to bridge the gaps and form a grand coalition for victory – with Walker having the better shot at this due to his epic battle against – and victory over – the forces of the left. In the end, one of the two men seems likely, to me, to slip in and start winning enough early victories to start an avalanche of support to fall their way in time to secure the nomination on a first ballot.

There are a lot of people in the GOP contest – and one must have at least some sort of egoism to even desire to be President, so a lot of GOPers who can’t win the contest will stay in when they really shouldn’t. A lot of money will be spent – and ink spilled – as various forces and factors try to take control and impose their will. But in men like Walker and Jindal, we have the sort of leaders, I think, who can impose their will upon the throng…just as Reagan was able to do in an equally fractious time (people forget that Reagan was despised by many in the GOP). And I think that either man can beat Hillary, or whomever the Democrats nominate. Not easily. Not in a walk over. But the trick can be done – because both men can unify the disparate elements of the GOP while retaining more than enough cross-over appeal to make an aged Hillary representing a corrupt and worn-out Establishment a loser.

The Democrats’ “Eat the Rich” Plan, Romney, Jeb and 2016

The Democrats have unveiled a new plan – tax the rich! Yeah, what a surprise – but this time it isn’t to provide goodies for the poor, but to shovel cash at the middle class. I guess that someone in Democrat-land crunched the polling numbers and realized that Hillary (a) can’t count on Obama’s 2012 coalition showing up for her and (b) that without some Democrat inroads into the middle class, Democrats are toast in 2016. While the Democrats plan is stupid, it is also rather smart, especially in light of conventional wisdom.

You see, the ultimate source of any Democrat victory on the national level is to garner a substantial majority of voters who don’t really know anything. The now-infamous “low information voters” who are the only thing standing between Democrats and electoral oblivion. By crafting a plan where rich, evil Wall Street types will be taxed to provide benefits to the middle class, the Democrats are trying to set themselves up for 2016 as the party fighting for the people – and the Republicans are fighting for the Wall Street fat cats. That Democrats are in the hip pockets of billionaires doesn’t matter – mostly because their most visible billionaires are famous in Hollywood…no matter how rich you point out these people are, the LIV types look kindly upon it because they made their money in entertainment, which is ok, because we all like to be entertained. But making your money in high finance? Hardly any of us do it, and none of us are entertained by it. In service of this plan, the Democrats are counting on the GOP nominee being Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney…because even though Romney and Bush aren’t rich by the standards of Democrat super-rich liberals, they are rich and they got their money in financial deals. In other words, Wall Street got them their money. No matter what one thinks of either man, they will be easily cast as tools of the Enemy…and easily so because every news report about them will include references to their Wall Street connections…while nary a story about Hillary will even mention her vast wealth, let alone how she got it.

Among a host of other reasons, this is why we must not go for either Romney or Jeb. Fine men, both of them: but both of them are sure-losers…and losers by big margins. They simply cannot escape their background and their background will be used to paint them in the worst light…and people who don’t really know all that much will vote in droves for Hillary, because the MSM has painted her for a year as someone “who cares about people like me”. To defeat Hillary, we need someone who is (a) not rich, (b) not well known at this time on the national level and (c) who can fight it out toe to toe with an unapologetic battle of ideas. As readers here know, my first choice is Bobby Jindal. Second up is Walker and final choice is Cruz. And the more I think it over – even with my belief that Jindal would be the better President – I’m leaning towards Walker…a great, blue collar background, not rich, not Establishment, successful governor, fought the left tooth and nail and won…teamed up with someone like Governor Martinez of New Mexico, he might be unbeatable.

Everything that Democrats and their MSM lap dogs will do over the next 22 months is geared towards one goal: getting Hillary in the White House. They’ll do whatever it takes – even throwing Obama under the bus, if they think it best. But no matter what they do with their own side, all efforts directed at us will be to paint us as mean, cruel, cold, rich, stupid, out of touch and unworthy of being in power. Ever mistake we make, every boneheaded comment, any scandals which emerge, will all be used – and blown massively out of proportion – in the service of making the GOP and all connected with it stink the public mind. That is all going to happen no matter what – but let’s not hand them an advantage by nominating someone who is easy for people to dislike. Let’s not go back to the Establishment well and hope that this time being moderate will bring us victory…let’s find ourselves someone who has beaten Democrats again and again and again and who is so us-folksy that the worst smear campaign in the world won’t work. Let’s, in short, look for our next Reagan…whether he’s Walker or Jindal or Cruz or someone not yet on the radar, let’s find him (or her!) and get this thing done right.

Life in Liberal-Fascist America

Here’s the story - you’ll recall that Governor Walker was the target of a completely bogus, politically-motivated hatchet job by an out-of-control Democrat prosecutor. Recently, details of the political motivation for the case were revealed – and what did our MSM do? Ruthlessly track down the source of the revelation, and then smear him.

Do read the linked article – it tells you all you need to know about the real power structure of the United States. It is more nakedly exposed in Wisconsin than elsewhere because in Wisconsin it is more directly under threat…and the liberals believe (correctly) that if they can’t squash Walker, then what Walker has done will spread, thus undermining the whole basis of liberal power (which is, ultimately, that liberals are subsidized by government – and if you take away the government subsidy, then liberals will whither away and die as a political force).

Remember what happened in this particular case – the truth about an out-of-control prosecutor was revealed and the MSM went out not to investigate the prosecutor, but to smear the man who told the truth. If you think that the MSM has any sense of honor or decency, think again – if liberalism is threatened, the MSM becomes the merest arm of political liberalism. And this brings us to the most important lesson: the liberals are at war with us. They want us destroyed. They will not play fair. They will not obey the rules. They will not tell the truth. Unless and until we internalize the message that it is all or nothing, we can’t do what is necessary to win. There can’t be bipartisanship. There can’t be working across the aisle. There can only be unrelenting conflict all up and down the line.

Walker Wins! Unions Lose!

Take that unions!

UPDATE, by Mark NoonanAnd a blow out win, too.  So far, it is a 15 point win.  That will probably hold up or at least something like it.  This spells doom not just to the corrupt and corrupting public sector unions but to Obama, as well.  Respected pollster after respected pollster had the race much, much closer…just like they had it much closer in the Indiana primary and it turned out to be a blowout win for insurgent conservatism.  It will be like that from now until November – because the pollsters simply don’t have a polling model taking in to consideration the fury against liberalism which has built up under Obama.

UPDATE II:  Barrett supporter on CNN apparently figures that democracy died tonight…which is typical liberalism:  when the people vote to do something is destroys a “democracy” which is made up of union bosses making back room deals with corrupt politicians.

UPDATE III:  I’m with Allahpundit on just ignoring the exits which allege that Obama still has a comfortable lead over Romney for November – those exits also alleged that the race was down to the wire.  Must have been more exit pollsters in Democrat-heavy areas.  Obama is doomed in Wisconsin, from what I can see.  Any State Obama won by less than 10 points should be rated as “lean Republican”.

UPDATE IVBobby Jindal: “A lot of people thought it would be a late night in Wisconsin. I think it’s going to be a late night in Chicago.”

UPDATE V:  Mitt Romney congratulates:

I congratulate Scott Walker on his victory in Wisconsin. Governor Walker has demonstrated over the past year what sound fiscal policies can do to turn an economy around, and I believe that in November voters across the country will demonstrate that they want the same in Washington, D.C. Tonight’s results will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin. Governor Walker has shown that citizens and taxpayers can fight back – and prevail – against the runaway government costs imposed by labor bosses. Tonight voters said ‘no’ to the tired, liberal ideas of yesterday, and ‘yes’ to fiscal responsibility and a new direction. I look forward to working with Governor Walker to help build a better, brighter future for all Americans.

UPDATE VI:  The GOP appears to have won all four of the State Senate recall elections, as well.  This whole recall effort was, of course, nothing more than an extreme expression of the Democrat “it ain’t over until we win” attitude.  But it blew right up in their faces.

On, Wisconsin!

According to the polls, Walker will be re-elected (is that the proper term for surviving a recall?) today by the voters of Wisconsin – by 5 to 10 percentage points, depending on which poll you believe (I tend towards the higher margin of victory – not because a poll says so, but because the dynamics of the race are showing increasing GOP support and a collapse of Democrat support).  While various liberal pundits and power brokers have spent the last week or so downplaying the significance of the Wisconsin result the fact remains that the American left poured everything it had in to Wisconsin – first to try and prevent Walker’s reforms from being enacted then in an attempt to undo them, with this recall vote today just being the last gasp.   After all this effort if Walker survives, then this is the death knell for the American left.

The left, since the 1930’s, has used the government to fund the increasing power of the left.  Public sector unions are just this sort of thing on steroids – such unions lobby themselves (essentially) on whether or not government will get bigger while they also ensure that anyone who plays ball with Big Government and the left gets rewarded with wealth and/or political power.  The real reason that government never gets smaller is because the government funds (on a gigantic scale) a vast army of lobbyists who work night and day against the concept of reducing government.  As long as public sector unions have unfettered power to draw money from government workers and use it in support of those politicians who are willing to increase the power and size of government (and thus the power and size of the public sector unions, as well as other leftist groups), so will government continue to grow.   While Walker’s reforms did a lot of things the most important aspect of it was to liberate the workers of Wisconsin government from a de-facto requirement to be a member of the union.

As was reported a few days back, public sector union membership has collapsed in Wisconsin – all due to Walker’s reform which took away the union’s power to deduct dues automatically from and employees pay.  Now the unions have to rely on voluntary subscription…and the workers are showing they want nothing to do with the union.  It was this which really impelled the leadership of the left to go ballistic.  While rank and file liberals are still convinced that Walker just hates workers, the union bosses know that the real issue is whether or not workers like the union.  Events are showing that they don’t – and each person who quits the union takes one more bit of power from the union.  The power to influence elections and lobby for ever larger government is ebbing away from the unions, and thus from the overall left.

This is for the whole ball of wax.  If Walker wins, then the public sector unions are on the ropes – and it then becomes only a matter of time, given our budget crisis, that the rest of government funding for the left goes to the chopping block.  Think about this – the taxpayers provide a great deal of money for Planned Parenthood.  PP spends a great deal of money not only advancing abortion, as a cause, but also attacking Republicans in service of their cause.  Boiled down – though PP pretends to keep the funds separate – the tax dollars of pro-life Americans are being used to fund the political advancement of pro-abortion Americans.  On and on it goes through a whole host of groups…all of them leftist, all of them getting all or part of their funding from the taxpayers, all of them advancing causes which most of the taxpayers oppose.  With fear of the unions gone, more and more politicians will be willing to slaughter liberal sacred cows to balance the budget.

So, get ready first off for a lot of fun tonight – watching crestfallen liberals and making fun of their increasingly bizarre attempts to spin this as not a loss, at all.  But then watch them come blazing back on the attack, knowing that if Obama goes down to defeat, there will be nothing stopping the federal government from duplicating Walker’s efforts.

UPDATE:  So far reports indicate a very high turnout.

UPDATE II:  Still many reports of high turnout and some indications of Democrat ballot box stuffing efforts.  Drudge is saying that early exits indicate Walker by 5 – which is doubly encouraging because it appears that Democrat areas had the higher turnout early on.  It will be what it will be – and I expect Walker will win as his victory margin will be outside the Democrat “margin of fraud”.

Liberal Nastiness Continues in Wisconsin (Updated)

We have some video:

 

Which side is the side of reason and decency?  We report, you decide.

They don’t seem to realize just how nauseating they are becoming – from 620 WTMJ:

Protesters crowded the street outside Messmer Preparatory School in Milwaukee’s Riverwest neighborhood as Governor Walker visited the school Friday to read to children. The protests came just hours after someone vandalized the school ahead of the Governor’s visit.

“Some of these folks super glued our front doors at the prep school,” said Br. Bob Smith, OFM, the president of Messmer Catholic Schools, about the school on the corner of North Fratney and East Burleigh Streets.

He told Newsradio 620 WTMJ that a woman was walking in front of the school Thursday, asking people to protest.

According to Br. Smith, one protester said ” ‘Get ready for a riot,’ because they were going to disrupt the visit.”…

A riot at a Catholic school where the Governor is coming to meet the kiddies and read them a story.  Petty vandalism thrown in, too.  These liberals just don’t understand – they have no sense of proportion or any grasp of how a democratically governed Republic is supposed to work.

You fight out an election and then abide by the results…you don’t keep trying to reverse them with recall after recall, and you don’t make every last aspect of life a heated political debate.  A while back ago the same sort of disgusting leftists disrupted Walker’s efforts to honor the kids of the Special Olympics.  If the left really thinks this will win hearts and minds and get people on board to recall Walker next year, then they’ve got another think coming.  After a while, it is time to admit defeat, and start gearing up for the next election…not keep up an unending drumbeat of political vitriol.

Keep hate alive, liberals…we’ll know how to answer you, next year.

Democrats Refuse to Admit Defeat…

…or go within a country mile of sanity.  They’re at it again, now working on a recall effort against Governor Walker.  From Hot Air:

You’ve got to chase your dreams. Ahab had Moby Dick, Javert had Valjean, and these tools have a guy whose collective bargaining bill is a fiscal success even according to Milwaukee’s favorite newspaper.

Can we get them to flush a bunch of money down the toilet next year that might otherwise go towards reelecting Barack Obama in a crucial swing state? Yes, we can.

“‘If we can do all of this against entrenched Republicans on their own turf, imagine our success … when all of Wisconsin can have its voice heard on Gov. Walker’s extreme, divisive agenda,’ Wisconsin state party chairman Mike Tate wrote in a memo to reporters Wednesday…'”

W. C. Fields once said that if at first you don’t succeed; try, try again.  And then quit.  No sense being a damn fool about it.  Our Democrats seem determined on being the fool.

They just spent $30 million to win two State legislative seats, one of which was held by a man who got himself mired in a sex scandal.  What’s next?  $60 million to try and bounce Walker from the governorship?  Goodness, even if they did it, if the GOP controls the legislature then a Democrat governor still wouldn’t be able to undo Walker’s reforms.  Furthermore, as Walker’s reforms are starting to take hold, all of the news is good (late breaking good news for Walker probably saved one or two of the GOP seats on Tuesday) – for Wisconsin’s budget, for Wisconsin’s taxpayers, for Wisconsin’s schools…for all aspects of Wisconsin life, except for corrupt union bosses and their bought Democrat politicians.  By the time the Democrats could get a recall off the ground against Walker (I understand that under Wisconsin law they couldn’t try until some time in 2012) things might be going so well that Walker is politically bullet proof.

I do appreciate the appeal to the voters aspect of this – something all too often absent from the left.  But the purpose of recall is not just to undo every election you don’t like, but to remove from office those politicians who prove egregiously corrupt or entirely out of tune with what they ran on.  Democrats are just throwing a temper tantrum here…

But, by all means, have at it…each cent spent on a quixotic attack against Walker is one cent less Barry and the Boys will have to stave off disaster in 2012.