So, About New Hampshire

Biggest thing for me about it is that 42,000 fewer people participated in the Democrat primary than in 2008; the returns aren’t 100% yet, but my calculation is that about 245,000 people voted in the Democrat primary last night, in 2008 it was 287,000. That is a 15% decline – rather large. What is shows that the Democrats are not enthused about 2016 – and the Democrats need at least most of 2008’s enthusiasm to carry their nominee – still almost certain to be Hillary – over the finish line. Meanwhile, over on the GOP side, a bit more than 280,000 people participated, while in 2012 it was 248,000 – showing GOP enthusiasm is up. If this sort of turnout prevails over the primaries (and I suspect it will), then it will demonstrate that the Democrats are in deep trouble.

From what I’ve seen, Sanders didn’t just beat Hillary, he crushed her. But, will it matter? Next up is South Carolina where the Democrat electorate is heavily African-American and African-Americans have been Clinton loyalists since 1992 – with the exception of 2008. But was 2008 merely a reflection of running against Obama, or an indication that African-American loyalty to the Clinton’s isn’t as deep as people think? We’ll find out in South Carolina – if Sanders can peel away even 35% of the African-American primary vote from Hillary, then we might not have Hillary as the Democrat nominee. And that, actually, worries me a bit. I know that the official line is that Hillary is impervious but I’m starting to suspect she’s a loser – against any GOPer. Sanders, the Socialist, is allegedly the George McGovern of 2016…but with his populist, anti-Establishment credibility, he might actually be harder to beat, especially if the GOP nominates someone like Jeb or Kasich.

On the GOP side, the only remarkable thing for me was Cruz coming in strong third – he spent little time or resources in New Hampshire and did very well. Meanwhile, Jeb poured in resources and came in fourth. It is time for Jeb to pack it in – though I suspect he’ll hang around until Florida. Rubio had a bad night – fifth place behind Jeb, of all things. Some say it was the debate and maybe that did it; I don’t really know. Maybe 2016 just isn’t Rubio’s year. Right now, I think it shapes up as a battle between Cruz and Trump, with a slight chance that Rubio rebounds as the Great Establishment Hope.

Get ready for a strange political year…

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I’m Writing Another Long Post Open Thread

I really did like writing that last long post – and, so inspired, am in the process of writing another. It’ll likely become a series as I explore my views of just what, exactly, makes one a Conservative or a Progressive. But as enormously long posts take a long time to write, how about some content?

Well, the Broncos won – and all Chargers fans are delighted as it means the near-certain retirement of Manning and thus the Bolts will have a shot at the AFC West next year. As for Newton’s meltdown in the post-game presser: I cut him some slack. He’s a young, vigorous man who just had a fantastic year but the Big Prize – the thing he’s worked his whole, young life for – was ripped away from him…by that absolutely stunning Denver defense (I hadn’t seen a Denver game all year – I had no idea just how good those guys are). Newton will be back – and I think he’ll eventually get his well-deserved ring…and he’ll mature and do better.

Sanders and Hillary are tied in national polls – mostly a meaningless thing as the Primaries are a series of electoral contests which don’t 1 for 1 relate to each other…but it is a stunning fall from the heights for Hillary, who is now nakedly demanding Progressives support her simply because she’s a woman. I still think she’ll steamroll her way to the nomination, but she’s heavily damaged goods. This is what makes the GOP primary so important – whomever we nominate is likely the next President, even if it’s Jeb (that is a change for me – I thought him the one sure-loser for 2016, but Hillary is so bad that even Jeb could possibly beat her). Related: final poll for NH shows Bush in 2nd, Rubio in 4th. If it works out that way, then we’ll have Jeb to kick around for a while longer. I hope it’s not true – I hope by SC (or, at least, by the “SEC Primary” we’re down to a three man cage match between Trump, Cruz and Rubio). Also related: pretty, young woman is feeling the Bern…which is still rather sad, but I have about 1,567,978% more respect for any Prog backing Bernie than I do those backing Hillary. Seriously – Bernie is lots and lots of things I disagree with, but he isn’t a nauseating tub of corruption.

How do you fall on the “Obama is doing this deliberately/Obama is just an incompetent dolt” debate? My view: he’s an incompetent dolt who is managing to deliberately wreck things because for more than 7 years, no one has really dared to try and stop him.

NARAL/Moloch = Same/Same.

A financial expert opines that there is zero chance of a recession this year. I’m sure you’re comforted.

Keep Libya in mind – Obama’s failed war there might be heading towards Failed War II.

Draft women into the military? I’m a bit old fashioned – heck no. But here’s the thing – if we believe that women should serve in combat then there are two requirements:

1. Women must meet the exact same standards as the men and there can be no lowering of standards and

2. You’d have to register women for the draft.

Call me whatever you want – but I think that it is the duty of men to fight; to spare women, as far as possible, from the horrors of war. Liberals don’t particularly care about that – ramming through their idea of equality is far more important, even if “equal” means “lower the standards until the women can meet them”. They also aren’t at all concerned about combat efficiency because war is wrong and, at any rate, Soft Power will make war un-necessary. Meanwhile, careerists in the Armed Forces are willing to do anything to get another star on their shoulder and if that means lowering combat efficiency in order to suck up to the politicians, they’ll do it.

If all that is happening is getting you down:

A Ballade of Suicide

The gallows in my garden, people say,
Is new and neat and adequately tall;
I tie the noose on in a knowing way
As one that knots his necktie for a ball;
But just as all the neighbours–on the wall–
Are drawing a long breath to shout “Hurray!”
The strangest whim has seized me. . . . After all
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

To-morrow is the time I get my pay–
My uncle’s sword is hanging in the hall–
I see a little cloud all pink and grey–
Perhaps the rector’s mother will not call– I fancy that I heard from Mr. Gall
That mushrooms could be cooked another way–
I never read the works of Juvenal–
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

The world will have another washing-day;
The decadents decay; the pedants pall;
And H.G. Wells has found that children play,
And Bernard Shaw discovered that they squall,
Rationalists are growing rational–
And through thick woods one finds a stream astray
So secret that the very sky seems small–
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

Trump the Politician

I noted yesterday that Trump appears to have trademarked “Make America Great Again” as early as 2012 – right after Romney lost. This indicates to me that Trump’s decision to run for President wasn’t some seat-of-the-pants decision and would also indicate that what he’s saying on the stump is not just whatever pops into his head at the moment but is, instead, a careful script designed to get Trump to where he wishes to be. As an aside, that slogan isn’t brand new – it was used before. By Reagan, in 1980. Reagan, for those old enough to remember, won by bringing over to the GOP large numbers of people who had been voting Democrat.

Almost all polling so far shows that Hillary would beat Trump. Some Trumpsters try to argue against the polls, but no serious person is going to dispute a trend which has something like 10 out of 11 national polls showing Hillary ahead. Bottom line, this is pretty much a fact – if the election were held today, Hillary would beat Trump (do keep in mind that the GOP establishment keeps hyping this fact because they want to scare GOP voters away from Trump…as if “electability” is something which can be known prior to election day). But the election isn’t going to be held today; it will be held at bit less than 11 months from now. Trump when he entered the GOP primary was a bizarre candidate no one in the GOP took seriously – and then over the past 5 months, Trump hammered on his themes and now is securely in first place for the GOP nomination. It takes no great stretch of the imagination to understand that if Trump is following a plan (and he probably is), then he’s also got a plan for what to do against Hillary – and I think that the past couple days as Trump has started to open fire on Hillary are the start of his beat-Hillary plan. Trump managed to clear the field of two stellar GOP governors (Jindal and Walker), and has forced the Establishment candidates (Buch, Kasich and Christie) into also-ran status. That is not a bad bit of politicking, if you ask me. In fact, what he’s done is about the most astonishing political effort I’ve seen in all my life…and that includes Reagan’s masterful plan for 1980. Polls show Hillary ahead – but the man who has done what Trump has done in the GOP primary is probably going to do pretty well against Hillary.

Trump still has to win the primary, of course. Not a single vote has been cast and Cruz is leading in Iowa. A win there for Cruz could propel him to a decent showing in New Hampshire which would, in turn, allow him to do well in South Carolina. Cruz wins Iowa and South Carolin and that would put a massive hole in Trump’s prospects. Other things could also come up. But Trump isn’t going to lose because he says something – he’s winning because of what he says. Our leaders don’t feel we’re in a crisis because wealth and power have sealed them off from the reality of the United States and the world – but millions of Americans are feeling the heat; they don’t like it; they want it fixed…and only Trump is speaking to them as if there is a crisis. If Cruz or Rubio want to be the nominee, then over the next two to three weeks, they are going to have to let the voters know that they are on their side. Trump is perceived as on their side because he attacks, relentlessly, all those persons and institutions the American people believe are ranged against them: the political class; the corporate class; the media class. No one will beat Trump except by convincing people that they, too, are fighting the enemy – and fighting them tooth and nail, with no apologies.

But if no one steps up to beat Trump at his own game, then Trump will almost certainly be the nominee. If Trump does win the nomination, what does he do against Hillary? Anything he wants. Trump, one way or another, figured out that what the people want is a leader who will go for the jugular. Don’t hold back. If the other guy lies, call him/her a liar. If the other guy says or does something stupid, call it stupid. If the other guy is awash in corruption, point that out. If the other guy is weak and wishy-washy, say just that. Don’t try to snow the people – don’t try to rise above and be polite. Don’t, that is, sit there worrying about what the establishment is going to think – care about what the people care about.

Hillary is a bundle of corruption and dishonesty – there’s nothing in her background which cannot be successfully attacked. Think about this: probably 75% of the American people are unfamiliar with the events surrounding the Clinton’s “charity” organization. We know that someone like, say, Jeb would never attack that aspect of Hillary. Trump, I believe, will. Why not? What’s to stop him? The only reason Jeb wouldn’t is because he’d feel it rude to do so…but Trump, I’ll bet, doesn’t believe it rude. And, truth be told, it wouldn’t be rude – it would be completely acceptable and, indeed, a service to the nation to bring before the American people just what the Clintons have been up to. Let Hillary try to explain it all away – the millions of dollars in donations from unsavory, foreign donors. And that is just one relatively small aspect of the whole Clinton mess. A candidate willing to relentlessly hammer on Clinton’s weaknesses will force the nation to pay attention to those weaknesses and take them into consideration when it is time to decide whom to vote for. Trump is a rich man and the son of a rich man – but Clinton has gotten rich, quite recently, by parlaying access to herself into a plush lifestyle. No matter what slick deals might be discovered in Trump’s background, none of them will quite have the stench of Clinton garnering donations to her “foundation” from Arab oil princes and Russian mobsters-turned-businessmen.

Of course, even with those sort of attacks, it could be that Clinton emerges victorious. She will have the MSM as much in the tank for her as they are for Obama. But, I wonder: will that work? An interesting article over at the Washington Post indicates that when people are allowed to back Trump without everyone knowing about it, plenty of people do just that. Trump is speaking out loud what is on a lot of minds…and minds which are afraid to speak for fear of losing jobs or social standing. What I find most remarkable about the Trumpsters I come across is just how many of them simply shouldn’t be. The most recent Trump convert I’ve come across is an older guy I know – not at all a political person, generally patriotic, Army veteran…voted once for Obama. Moderate in his views. But here he is – think I’ll vote Trump. This goes along with the youngsters, African-Americans and single moms who are also trending towards Trump. Why? Because things are loused up – and I mean really badly. People know things are loused up. Who is acknowledging this? Only Trump.

Of course, I could be wrong. Trump could just be an accident. Decided to run, made his outrageous statement and here we are…and if he does win the nomination, he goes down to flaming defeat next November. I acknowledge this could be the case. I also acknowledge that I haven’t the foggiest notion of what he’d really do, supposing he won. Trump will not get my vote in the primary. I just don’t know enough of his actual plans to cast my vote that way – but I do know that in the general he is almost certain to face a Hillary Clinton who definitely would be an utter disaster as President. In that case, I’ve got no choice – I’d have to vote Trump. But I’m starting to suspect that we’re seeing unfold before us a very carefully crafted plan by a man who, turns out, is a masterful politician – and unless someone comes up with a counter-plan, then Trump will be around for a long while to come…

How to Beat Donald Trump – and Hillary

The GOP establishment is getting itself into quite a panic – recently saw that former Senator Sununu is asserting that if Trump is the nominee then not only will the GOP lose the White House, but we’ll also lose the House and Senate. Now, to be sure, the GOP has a treacherous path in the Senate in 2016 because so many GOP Senators are up for re-election, but anyone think that the Democrats, led by Hillary, will have a strong year in the House is just speaking nonsense. But the statement does show the level of fear – and what Sununu and others are trying to do is scare people away from voting for Trump. This is a formula for ensuring Trump is the nominee.

I had initially thought the Trump surge was due to his mere celebrity status. Then I figured it was his vigorous statements on dealing with illegal immigration. But as time has worn on, I’ve come to a different conclusion. What brought it about is that over the past few weeks I’ve just come across a number of people who aren’t GOP voters but who are enthused about Trump. The cap of it all was when a lady I know said she’d vote Trump to keep Hillary out of the White House – this lady is liberal and a two-time Obama voter. All of this got me thinking – what is it about Trump that makes him acceptable to such a wide variety of people? His celebrity status would only go so far – and if that is all he had, he would have fizzled by now. His policies are vague, so its not like there some definitive thing he proposes to do which gets people on board. And then it hit me: he hasn’t lied to us. And this means that when he says something, people take it at face value – he’s believed. Meanwhile, those most vigorously attacking Trump have a bad reputation among the American people and especially the GOP base: they’ve lied before, lots of times. And so when they say, “Trump is bad”, maybe they’re lying, now?

Oh, to be sure, Trump has said some inaccurate things – but there’s a difference between saying something that is inaccurate and saying something that is a bold-faced lie. An inaccuracy would be claiming that people in the United States celebrated the 9/11 attacks – I don’t remember any such here, but I do vividly remember Palestinians getting in a celebratory mood over it. Trump is still holding to his story, but I think its just a mixed-up memory, which any of us can have; and Trump is not the sort to back down on something he’s said. Even if you could prove to Trump directly that he’s flat wrong, he probably still wouldn’t back down. It’s not his way – and people do admire a person who sticks to their guns. At all events, there is a correct perception among the American people that a large number of people in the world wish the United States ill, and some of them live here. That they weren’t popping champagne on the streets on 9/11 is less important than the fact that such people do exist. The GOP base gives Trump a pass on such a statement because they know that whether or not anyone particularly celebrated 9/11 in New Jersey is trivial in the grand scheme of things. To dwell upon it is pettifogging – mean spirited, too. And it is easy to believe that those trying to shred Trump on it are not necessarily doing so in service of telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth but in service of merely stopping Trump – and just stopping Trump, as Sununu attempts to do with his electoral fear-mongering, is actually something which just reinforces Trump’s “street cred”…it is the Establishment attacking the hero of the hour. It is dumb and counter-productive.

To clarify, a lie is something like saying you’ll campaign on a commitment to repeal ObamaCare and then doing nothing to so much as slow it down. A lie is something like saying your swell new health care program will reduce premiums by $2,500.00 only to have them skyrocket. It is especially a lie when your actions post-lie demonstrate that you knew you were lying from the get-go. I can promise you sincerely that I’ll be over at your house next week to help you move the furniture. If I don’t make it, there are two things it could be: I lied, or something came up. If you know me well, then you’ll swiftly come to a conclusion about which it is. If I’m usually the sort of person who makes a promise and then doesn’t deliver, then you’ll be on firm ground figuring I lied. If, on the other hand, I almost always keep my word then my excuse that my back went out on the day of the move will be credible. Our political class has proven itself over the past few decades that it is just lying – and knowing that it is lying as it states the lies. We listen to their speeches, listen to their promises of this or that definitive action once elected and then we see not only that such promises don’t happen, but very often the exact opposite of the promise occurs, all with an explanation that there never was really a chance of getting that thing done because Reasons. It is those kinds of lies that the American people are sick to death of – and all politicians are smeared with them, even if a particular politician has never stated a specific lie. It is no surprise, given this, that the two top GOPers are non-politicians; ie, people who have not spent the past couple decades lying to us – and the two regular GOPers who are doing the best (Rubio and Cruz) are rather new to national politics, and thus haven’t had time to spread enough bull to fertilize the Sinai. As for Hillary (who has spread enough bull, twice) – sure, she’ll still claw her way to the Democrat nomination, but the astonishing lack of enthusiasm for her candidacy even among Democrats (and her miserable polling numbers) shows that even some Democrats are not willing to put up with liars forever (as noted with my two-time-Obama-voting friend who is willing to do just about anything to keep Hillary out).

As of this point, there are only two GOPers who can possibly stop Donald Trump – Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. As I noted, they are still rather fresh to politics – they are far more trusted than, say, Jeb or Christie, who have long political lives. Even if people don’t attach a particular lie to either Jeb or Christie (or any of the other career politicians running), they have just been around too long – and the GOP base figures that if they get in then no matter what they promise on the campaign trail, it will be Corrupt Business As Usual once they are in the White House: that they’ll sell us out to cut deals with the liberal part of the political class. Both Rubio and Cruz have their weaknesses – especially Rubio over the “Gang of 8” immigration proposal. Do not for a moment think that it is necessarily just amnesty which is causing Rubio his problems – after all, even a President Trump will eventually sign on to some sort of amnesty (it is just in the cards, folks). But by being involved in the “Gang of 8”, Rubio has shown himself willing to work with the open-borders Democrats…and that means, in the minds of many, that once he’s President Rubio, we’ll get the amnesty with no border control, at all. That is what has, so far, prevented such a superlative politician like Rubio from rising to the top – fear among the base that he’ll betray the base. Cruz has less of a problem on that than Rubio, but he’s still an elected politician – he’s still a career politician. Sure, he’s got a lot of great things going for him (goes the GOP-base mind), but he’s still one of Them. How can we be sure that President Cruz won’t cave? And, so, to Trump – who hasn’t lied (in a manner which the people, on the whole, care about) and who isn’t a career politician (or, ditto to Carson).

So, how can Rubio or Cruz take on Trump and win? Simple – out Trump Trump. At the end of the day, Donald Trump is a rich business man who has worked the political system to advance his own wealth. To beat Donald Trump, you’d have to show yourself more on the side of the people than Trump possibly can. Trump is rising high because he proposes to take on our Ruling Class and Make America Great again. But Trump is part of the Ruling Class, too. If Senator Cruz wants to be President Cruz, he has to take on the part of Trump which is vulnerable – the businessman who works the system part of Trump. But that means taking on not just Trump, but the whole Chamber of Commerce part of the GOP. A Republican who wants to beat Trump will have to go to war with a great deal of the GOP Establishment – accepting the fact that, if nominated, a huge amount of normally GOP money will flow into Hillary’s coffers. That a large number of prominent GOPers will endorse Hillary and maybe even campaign for her. It means going after the banks. After the multi-national corporations. After the defense contractors. Of course, there would also be the more fun aspects of it – going after Big Education, the MSM and all the institutions feeding off the American people and leading it to destruction. The key is going after the entire Ruling Class, not just part of it, as Trump is doing…and by going after all of it, you go after Trump, as well. A pledge from Rubio or Cruz to intensely investigate our financial institutions and send sharp operators to jail will go far – as will a pledge to investigate corrupt union bosses, corrupt city governments, etc. From what I can gather just talking to people, everyone is just fed up – and that is left and right (except for those parts of the left – which will nominate Hillary – who live off the corrupt system).

This is not a sure-fire way to win, by the way. Trump has built up an impressive political following. He might be unbeatable in the primary by this point. But if there is a way to beat him, then it the way I’ve stated: going after everything from top to bottom, and making sure that everyone knows that Trump is actually part of the problem. He’ll still be able to fight back on that score and his followers are pretty firm…but I suspect that a real red-meat fight against all that is wrong with America would resonate. Done by a good politician – and Rubio and Cruz are good politicians – it could swing enough voters over to either of them to make sure that Trump starts coming in second place in the early primaries. The hardest part for Rubio and Cruz in this is keeping enough of the GOP Establishment on-side to ensure they don’t all coalesce around someone like Christie, presuming that Trump is political toast by Florida. Politics ain’t easy, folks.

And if you’ve beaten Trump, then you’ve just about automatically beaten Hillary. She’s going to talk a great game about fighting for the poor and middle class, but it’ll be Hillary who is raking in the money from major corporations. It is Hillary who has made untold sums of money off of the major corporations. You want to talk about an insider who has been twisting the system to get herself ahead? That is Hillary in a nutshell. She simply cannot win a race against someone who is attacking the very basis of her existence in politics because she cannot separate herself from herself. She is America’s problem demonstrated – everyone knows she’s only going to be the Democrat nominee because her last name is “Clinton” and the Powers That Be want her to have it…because they know full well she won’t actually rock the boat. She won’t actually help the poor and middle class. She can’t – she won’t be allowed to, even if she was so inclined; all she’ll do is ensure that her particular cronies are rewarded. And everyone knows this other than the most blinded of partisans (which, I suspect, won’t make up more than 40% of the electorate in 2016).

For those who think that Trump getting the nomination means a sure-Hillary win, think again. Hillary is disliked – and not just by GOPers. And even those who aren’t nauseated by her politics are just not all that fired up for her. First Woman President is just not that big a thing – not after we’ve already had our first African American President. Hillary plus a War On Women campaign won’t do it. This is not to say that beating Hillary would be easy. It would be a hard fight and may come down to excruciatingly narrow margins in a bunch of States. On the other hand, it could be a substantial loss for Hillary and the Democrats – it is notoriously hard for a party to win the White House three times in a row and Obama isn’t popular (Bush the Elder really got in back in ’88 because Reagan was so popular…Gore lost because Bill Clinton just wasn’t all that popular in ’00; people tend to forget that the Political Genius which is Bill Clinton never secured a majority of the vote). Trump could well win the nomination and then go on to win the White House. If you don’t want that to happen, then you’ve got to figure out how to beat him…and just insulting him and his followers isn’t the way to beat him. In fact, insulting him and his followers just makes his nomination more likely. Attack what Trump stands for in his real life: Big Business and slick deals. People don’t like either or those things. Once you’ve beaten Trump then just do the same to Hillary because she’s also all about Big Business and slick deals.

At the end of the day I think that a solid majority of Americans want a place where the rules apply to everyone equally. That no one is getting a rake-off. That everything is above-board. No one minds it when someone works hard and gets rich – the weakness of the left is because they don’t differentiate in their policies, and it gets worse for them when people perceive that if you toe the left’s line, you can be rich as you like (and make as many corrupt deals as you like). But people do mind it when they perceive that someone is getting special treatment – and that is whether its a government union, a big bank or a real estate developer who likes the idea of confiscating people’s property so he can build a hotel. No one minds immigration – people do mind people jumping the line, and they also don’t like it at all when the line-jumpers get government benefits; the left tries to make out that such sentiments are anti-immigrant and/or racist but it isn’t that, at all. It is cheating the system. It is something that most people can’t do – and it is something that some get to do because others benefit from it (liberals at election time, big business in low-wage employees). If someone will set themselves at the head of a movement to make sure that a fair deal is had by all, then that person will win big, in my view. Trump’s appeal is that he is saying he’ll do that – fight for a good deal for everyone. But he’s vulnerable on the fact that he’s been deep in the economic-political system all his life. It might not be enough to beat him, but it is the only way to beat him I can see. And it is the way to beat Hillary – and why I see a nominated Trump beating Hillary: whatever sharp practice Trump has ever engaged in is nothing compared to the monumental stench of corruption emanating from Hillary’s doings.

Since Jindal and Walker dropped out, I’ve no longer got a dog in this hunt. None of the candidates for President are my cup of tea. At all events, I’m ever more convinced that neither party as currently constituted can successfully implement the deep reforms needed to restore America. I think that Rubio or Cruz could do some good things – I don’t know what Trump will do. I can’t go on anything he’s done in the past because all he’s done is make business deals and appear on television. Maybe he’ll surprise me and become one of the greats, if elected President. I don’t know. I do know that if he’s up against Hillary, he’ll get my vote – whatever flaws he has are as nothing compared to the disaster which would be a second Clinton Presidency.

While neither of the party’s are vehicles for reform at the moment, the Trump phenomena does demonstrate that the GOP is still my best bet for eventually getting a party of reform. The Democrats had their shot with Sanders – socialist as he is, he’s an honest man. He would actually try to do what he says he wants to do. But the Democrats, after a short fling, are starting to fall in line behind Hillary. But I think that such Democrats are a decided minority of all Americans (just as the GOPers who would turn out for an establishment GOPer are a minority – and if the GOP does go establishment for 2016 then the race is a complete hold-your-nose tossup with a slight advantage to Hillary; it’ll be two minorities battling it out to see who can drag the most number of disappointed people to the polls). I do believe there is a majority which wants real change – real reform. Trump is catching a bit of that lightening in a bottle – will anyone else step up and make a try for it? We’ll see.

Debate Open Thread

Carly Fiorina did very well in the early debate. She is a formidable candidate. Can you imagine a Trump/Fiorina ticket? Speaking of Trump, if he can dial down his ego, add more details to his ideas, and act presidential – he just might run away with this. This will be a fun night, well at least for us political junkies.

Jeb’s Immigration Problem

We all know that Jeb is in favor of amnesty – as am I – but there’s a problem I detect in Jeb’s view:

Here’s Bush: “We need to find a way, a path to legalized status for those that have come here and have languished in the shadows. There’s no way that they’re going to be deported — no one’s suggesting an organized effort to do that. The cost of that would be extraordinary.”

And here’s Bush: “The 40 percent of the people that have come illegally came with a legal visa and overstayed their bounds. We ought to be able to find where they are and politely ask them to leave.”

As it turns out, those who over-stay their visas tend to be better educated, have a command of English and would be eligible for some pretty good jobs if their legal status was changed. Meanwhile, people who cross our southern border tend to be less educated, non-English-speakers and cluster in low-pay, low-skill jobs. It would seem to me that if we wanted to do amnesty, we’d actually want to favor those with the most skills – ie, those who can do the most good for the United States – than those with the least skills. But here’s pro-amnesty Bush saying let’s get rid of the high-educated and keep the low-educated. Why?

I can’t peer into Jeb’s heart and see what precisely is motivating him but I suspect that raw, political calculation might be at play. Who would feel most threatened by the sudden legalization of a large number of college-educated, high-skilled immigrants? Americans who are college-educated and high-skilled – you’d be allowing massive competition for their jobs to suddenly erupt…and people like that can command political power by simple fact of their ability to donate buckets of money to political campaigns. But letting in lots of low-skilled workers? No problem – they just compete with low-skill American workers…who cares about them? And, at any rate, a large increase in low-skill workers just drives down labor costs for some of our largest multinational corporations, and that is pleasing to the Chamber of Commerce types. In total, Jeb’s views on immigration are picture perfect if you are planning on running for President on an anti-GOP Base platform…it allows you to appeal to the big money corporate donors while also keeping upscale, suburban voters on your side (who are, also, all in favor of amnesty…as long as it doesn’t hurt them…and if it provides cheap nannies and gardeners, so much the better).

I’ve long grown rather irritated with our Ruling Class, including the GOP part of it. It appears to me that they want to keep masses of Americans on welfare so they can be fat, dumb and happy voters while importing a bunch of foreigners to do the grunt work of the nation while the people at the top get to live swell lives…meanwhile, those Americans who want to work hard and play by the rules are to be squeezed by cheap labor and high taxes. Methinks this might not be the best way for the nation to go. I’m not going to blame Jeb for all this – or even think him bad for what he advocates…but the whole system is rotten and it will screw us all over (even the immigrants – remember, cheap, easily exploitable labor is not exactly what America is supposed to stand for)…and Jeb is just part of it. We definitely cannot entrust ourselves to him, or anyone like him.

I retain a general support for amnesty – but until we get a government I can trust is actually on the side of the people, I want no part of it. I want liberty and justice for all – not special deals designed to merely perpetuate a Ruling Class in power.

The Democrats’ “Eat the Rich” Plan, Romney, Jeb and 2016

The Democrats have unveiled a new plan – tax the rich! Yeah, what a surprise – but this time it isn’t to provide goodies for the poor, but to shovel cash at the middle class. I guess that someone in Democrat-land crunched the polling numbers and realized that Hillary (a) can’t count on Obama’s 2012 coalition showing up for her and (b) that without some Democrat inroads into the middle class, Democrats are toast in 2016. While the Democrats plan is stupid, it is also rather smart, especially in light of conventional wisdom.

You see, the ultimate source of any Democrat victory on the national level is to garner a substantial majority of voters who don’t really know anything. The now-infamous “low information voters” who are the only thing standing between Democrats and electoral oblivion. By crafting a plan where rich, evil Wall Street types will be taxed to provide benefits to the middle class, the Democrats are trying to set themselves up for 2016 as the party fighting for the people – and the Republicans are fighting for the Wall Street fat cats. That Democrats are in the hip pockets of billionaires doesn’t matter – mostly because their most visible billionaires are famous in Hollywood…no matter how rich you point out these people are, the LIV types look kindly upon it because they made their money in entertainment, which is ok, because we all like to be entertained. But making your money in high finance? Hardly any of us do it, and none of us are entertained by it. In service of this plan, the Democrats are counting on the GOP nominee being Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney…because even though Romney and Bush aren’t rich by the standards of Democrat super-rich liberals, they are rich and they got their money in financial deals. In other words, Wall Street got them their money. No matter what one thinks of either man, they will be easily cast as tools of the Enemy…and easily so because every news report about them will include references to their Wall Street connections…while nary a story about Hillary will even mention her vast wealth, let alone how she got it.

Among a host of other reasons, this is why we must not go for either Romney or Jeb. Fine men, both of them: but both of them are sure-losers…and losers by big margins. They simply cannot escape their background and their background will be used to paint them in the worst light…and people who don’t really know all that much will vote in droves for Hillary, because the MSM has painted her for a year as someone “who cares about people like me”. To defeat Hillary, we need someone who is (a) not rich, (b) not well known at this time on the national level and (c) who can fight it out toe to toe with an unapologetic battle of ideas. As readers here know, my first choice is Bobby Jindal. Second up is Walker and final choice is Cruz. And the more I think it over – even with my belief that Jindal would be the better President – I’m leaning towards Walker…a great, blue collar background, not rich, not Establishment, successful governor, fought the left tooth and nail and won…teamed up with someone like Governor Martinez of New Mexico, he might be unbeatable.

Everything that Democrats and their MSM lap dogs will do over the next 22 months is geared towards one goal: getting Hillary in the White House. They’ll do whatever it takes – even throwing Obama under the bus, if they think it best. But no matter what they do with their own side, all efforts directed at us will be to paint us as mean, cruel, cold, rich, stupid, out of touch and unworthy of being in power. Ever mistake we make, every boneheaded comment, any scandals which emerge, will all be used – and blown massively out of proportion – in the service of making the GOP and all connected with it stink the public mind. That is all going to happen no matter what – but let’s not hand them an advantage by nominating someone who is easy for people to dislike. Let’s not go back to the Establishment well and hope that this time being moderate will bring us victory…let’s find ourselves someone who has beaten Democrats again and again and again and who is so us-folksy that the worst smear campaign in the world won’t work. Let’s, in short, look for our next Reagan…whether he’s Walker or Jindal or Cruz or someone not yet on the radar, let’s find him (or her!) and get this thing done right.