Wide Open Iowa
December 18th, 2007 at 09:35pm Matt Margolis
Mark and I have spoken privately about our predictions for Iowa, and a couple weeks ago, I said I think it could end up going Edwards, Clinton, then Obama. Mark and I have generally been at odds over how Iowa will turn out for the Democrats, but a new poll now shows Edwards on top, with Clinton and Obama not far behind makes me think that my prediction wasn’t too far out there.
Let me explain why I believe, at this point, that not only will Edwards come out on top, but that Obama will do surprisingly poor, in the same way that Howard Dean did back in 2004.
I watched some of the Iowa Caucuses in 2004, and the one thing that seemed to stick out in my mind was the common question everyone was asking: “Who can beat George W. Bush?” With no incumbent this cycle, the question I expect caucus-goers to be asking is “Who can win in the general election?” And I expect that most will not give “Barack Obama” as the answer. In 2004 Iowa Democrats made the strategic decision to bank their hopes on capturing the presidency on John Kerry. John Kerry had run a terrible campaign up to that point — and even had to loan himself a huge chunk of money to keep himself afloat at one point — but with the war on terror as the primary issue, it seemed logical to pick someone who served in Vietnam (albeit very briefly) and had a bit more experience than a governor of a small state who sealed his own records and appeals to the far light liberal bloggers.
If electability is as important to Iowa Democrats in 2008 as it was in 2004, then I wouldn’t count on Obama coming out on top. Obama’s inexperience is a huge problem for him. And, let’s face it, if liberals really believe that this country is racist, then how could they believe that Obama has a chance to win the General Election?
And how about Hillary? Aside from her past support for the war in Iraq, there is no one more polarizing and controversial than her. Still, I believe Democrats would consider her more electable than Barack Obama.
Democrats can claim all they want that there will be a blowout in 2008, but many factors will drive turnout on both sides, and I’m still thinking that this election will be close like the previous two.
The real thing we get out of this new poll is that Iowa is wide open. In the past few weeks and months, all of the top three Democrat contenders have come out on top of an Iowa poll. In the end, it can go either way. This latest poll strengthens my belief that Edwards can win Iowa.
So anyway, not too long ago I asked our readers for predictions about Iowa. Any revisions to past predictions? Any new predictions?
UPDATE: Strengthening the foundation for my prediction again… QandO points us to a story that says Democrats are worried about the electability of their nominee.
Entry Filed under: Campaign 2008, Democrats
16 Comments
1. Mark Noonan | December 18th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
I make no predictions - and I think that it will really come down to who has the best “ground game” - ie, who can actually drag their supporters to the caucuses and in that we might see such thinsg as the weather having a large effect. Which of the top three Democrats has the most “broken glass” supporters? Meaning, who’s supporters will crawl over broken glass to back their man (or woman)?
I’ll say it again - in 2008, buckle in for a wild political ride.
2. SEW | December 18th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Unless Drudge/ National Enquirer locate the pregnant acquaintance of pretty boy who is stashed away.
3. Casper | December 18th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
I predicted Obama, Clinton, Edwards. I’m going to change that to Obama, Edwards, Clinton. I think (and hope) Clinton is going down the tubes.
4. Mark Noonan | December 18th, 2007 at 11:47 pm
Matt - good update; and, of course, “electabiliy” is Democratese for “who can fool ‘em?”. They want someone who can appear to be of the American mainstream - but who will then push leftwing politics once in office.
5. Mark Noonan | December 18th, 2007 at 11:49 pm
Casper,
Don’t count her out until someone else is accepting the nomination at the convention…and even then, be careful….Ambition, thy name is Hillary.
6. Ricorun | December 19th, 2007 at 12:29 am
I’m still going with my predictions from a week ago, on all counts, with the single exception being that Obama’s chances look better than they did then. And if by some chance Obama wins big in Iowa, he’s going to be very tough to beat the rest of the way. But I still don’t think that’s going to happen.
Mark: …of course, “electabiliy” [sic] is Democratese for “who can fool ‘em?
Does that apply only to Democrats? It seems to me there are similar pitfalls on the GOP side as well. In fact, there are similarities there which are very hard to deny.
7. Thrower | December 19th, 2007 at 2:03 am
This is way too tough to call. While Iowans are not a cross section of America, they get a better look at these people than we ever will. To wit, nobody ever wastes much time in California given the reality that the election is over here before it begins.
My personal hope for this primary is that Clinton (Ill do and say anything to be elected) goes down in flames, and so does Guliani (forget your personal struggles and vote out of fear).
8. extramedium | December 19th, 2007 at 2:08 am
“And, let’s face it, if liberals really believe that this country is racist, then how could they believe that Obama has a chance to win the General Election?”
Now that really made me chuckle. What a completely backhanded way of saying you don’t think Obama will get elected because he is black!
It’s okay to say you don’t think America is ready for a black president. You don’t need to be so politically correct, or passive, in you assertions.
And by the way, liberals don’t think the country is racist - they think far-right conservatives are racist. They pin all the evils of the world onto the extremes of the other side, just like conservatives do.
9. extramedium | December 19th, 2007 at 2:11 am
My prediction - Obama, Clinton, Edwards - though I hope Hillary crashes and burns and I wish Biden were up there in the top three.
10. hermie | December 19th, 2007 at 6:38 am
I’ll stick with Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani for the top 3 in the GOP.
Obama, Clinton and Edwards for the Dems.
11. neocon | December 19th, 2007 at 9:10 am
extra,
Here’s just a snippet of incendiary liberal racism:
Air America radio host Randi Rhodes unleashed a torrent of what’s being called “liberal racism” and accused Oprah Winfrey of “acting” when she stumped for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
On her show last week, Rhodes discussed Oprah’s appearances on Obama’s behalf, and told listeners: “She was blacker than Obama yesterday . . . Let me tell you something. Everyone who watches Oprah are the whitest people in the world . . . Even the black men who watch Oprah are white women while they watch Oprah . . .
“She’s like so unbelievably white . . . Why is she turning up the blackness a notch or two or three for these appearances?”
12. Joe | December 19th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Matt & Mark,
All this post about the Democrats. What are your GOP predictions? Have you actually decided yet?
Will it be the Flip-flopper? Matt, you are from Mass, right? How did you feel about ol’ Mitt?
Will it be the most liberal GOPer and multi-marriaged Rudi?
Will it be the lethargic Fred?
Will it be the Huckster?
Maybe McCain? Although I wish it was the McCain of 2000 and not the McCain of 2008.
We are all dying to hear your expertise and who you are backing.
For the Dems, I can still hold out hope for Richardson to make a strong showing. But I really think Obama, Edwards and Clinton in that order. I’m hoping Clinton drops to third (if not further).
13. extramedium | December 19th, 2007 at 10:17 am
Neocon - and your point is?
14. Faceplant | December 20th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
My god, I think the worlds coming to an end! I actually agreed with Noonan yesterday, and now I’m agreeing with good ole Matty.
I think Edwards has a VERY good chance of winning Iowa. If I had to predict the top three they would be, in order…
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Of course, I could be competely wrong! We’ll find out.
15. Faceplant | December 20th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
Oh, and I just don’t see Giuliani finishing anywhere near the top three. I think McCain just may break the top three.
16. gcgpwpiy&hellip | January 4th, 2008 at 1:25 am
gcgpwpiy
gcgpwpiy