Over the past 48 hours I have seen enormous amounts of hurt feelings over the Iowa result. I don’t really know why – I mean, come on: a white, Evangelical State. That is Trump’s meat and potatoes. There was little chance anyone was going to gain traction against Trump in that electorate. I was a bit surprised that DeSantis staked so much on it: he’s a much better fit for the New Hampshire electorate. But, nobody calls me up for campaign advice.
But a lot of DeSantis supporters are very upset about it all – and not just the Never Trump plants who were paid to go on social media to talk up DeSantis as a means of harming Trump. I’m talking about some sensible people. I can only assume they just invested too much emotion in their guy. Never do that: no matter what, they’re all politicians. All politicians are at least a little bit insane and they all hedge a bit even when they don’t outright lie. The people running for office are the merest tools – and sure I’d always like to have a perfectly made hammer to drive the nail in, but the nail must be driven and if all I’ve got is a wrench, I’m still going to pound away at it.
But it was also a pretty big result for Trump. True, the turnout was lower but the weather wasn’t just bad, it was downright awful. But Trump’s 51% was astounding and probably would have carried through in a high turnout. To compare, the 2016 winner got 27%, 2012 24%, 2008, 34%, 2000 40%. You generally don’t get close to a majority because the field is usually very crowded and so the votes are split up. Bottom line is that the GOP base is still solidly behind Trump. There isn’t much chance of anyone knocking him off – they’d have to win NH and SC to have a shot and polling in both States is favorable to Trump and likely to go more favorable now. Nutshell: it is highly likely that Trump is the 2024 nominee.
That the base is so solid for Trump is, I think, another reason for the anger – people were talking themselves into believing that the Orange Man, being Bad, was done for. When the results came in for Iowa that theory was proved wrong. But do keep something in mind: everyone who hates Trump (this is different from someone who might not want Trump for policy reasons) does so because the TV told them to. Tell them this and they will hotly deny it. Usually claiming they’ve hated Trump since he first became famous. But that is absurd: why in heck would you invest in hating a real estate tycoon/television personality? Nobody would do that. Nobody hated Trump before he came down that escalator. It has become for many a negative feedback loop: they took the Orange Man Bad position, have diligently sought arguments supporting the Orange Man being Bad and are absolutely shocked to find that for a lot of people, the Orange Man ain’t all that Bad.
Make no mistake about it, there was a drift away from Trump in 2022. I saw it. I talked with ardent Trumpsters. They were ready to move on. They were casting eyes at DeSantis as RDS went his most Trumpy in fighting woke ideology. But then the Mar a Lago raid happened and the GOP, on the whole, did not rise to Trump’s defense in what was clearly a politically-motivated prosecution. On the sly – and it could be seen – they, too, hoped that this would sink Trump. At that moment, I started saying that the only way to beat Trump would be to out-Trump him: in this case, it would require people to get up and loudly condemn the raid, condemn 2020 as a fraud and call for the pardon of all J6ers. That would show the Trump base that you’re serious…and failure to do that makes you a RINO/Commie traitor. And so it is happening.
Some are saying that the indictments, etc of Trump are 4D chess where the Democrats are hoping to make Trump a martyr and so get the GOP to nominate the guy they think they can beat. No. They’re not that smart. They are, in fact, enormously stupid. They are indicting Trump not as 4D chess but because the TV told them to. Yes, I know that the TV was told to say that by the DNC, but the actions of the DOJ and others are motivated by what the TV said. They consider indicting Trump a righteous act and they are certain everyone wants them to do so…after all, everyone on TV says that is what everyone wants. Maybe Trump will lose in November and the Democrats will luck out…but it is just as likely that they needed Trump as much as they needed a hole in their head.
Can Trump win? Sure. There’s a non-zero chance he wins big but don’t make any plans on that. Right now, given polling, he’s well positioned to get past 270 outside the margin of fraud. A lot of people are harping on suburbanites and Independents hating Trump. True, they do. But at least the Independents also hate Biden. Stepping away from the fraud that actually installed Biden, he did do better among Independents in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016 – but at that time he was still a mostly unknown quantity and the MSM pumped him up as kindly Uncle Joe who was going to end the stress of the Trump Era and let America just move forward…we were supposed to get the late 1990’s and this time without even so much as a blue dress to disturb the peace.
Didn’t get that, did we?
The MSM is still relentlessly covering for Biden but what the MSM can’t do is make us not see the price of gasoline and butter. Can’t spin the Afghan defeat into a win. Can’t make us think that Ukraine is going well. Can’t shake us from seeing that under Trump the middle east was largely peaceful while under Biden it has exploded. Sure, the MSM will never talk about the border crisis…but it is a crisis and via non-traditional media, people are seeing it…and the GOP sending illegals to Blue cities is also making it more noticeable. The pragmatic facts of life is that the Independents now hate Biden at least as much as they hate Trump…and as Biden is the person currently making them mad, the jump ball for independents slightly favors Trump at the moment.
As for the respective party bases: who is going to be more motivated in November? My bet is on the GOP base. Democrats are trying to work up “democracy” and abortion as their key campaign messages but that is thin gruel…especially as a crucial part of their base, black voters, is very much angry when they see illegals getting free housing and phones while black Americans get nothing. Not saying these people will vote Trump…but staying home works out just the same.
It is a wide open race and there are so many variables that nobody can say what is going to happen. For goodness sake, Biden might keel over at any time now and that would just put a tornado into politics as Democrats scramble for a replacement. And imagine if that happens in, say, September? Buckle up, kiddos, we’re in for a wild ride.
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