There is a great deal of dishonest stupidity out there. When Trump announced the cease fire a host of voices rose up saying that Iran had won – they controlled the Straight, had Trump over a barrel and were now in a stronger position than ever. There was just one fly in the ointment here: it was nonsense.
The first requirement to control a waterway is to have a navy. Even shore positions aren’t enough. You have to be able to get out on the water and stop the traffic. Iran has no navy. They didn’t have much of one before the fight and after it they had nothing. We had spent weeks systematically destroying anything like a sea going ship. Meanwhile, we have the most powerful navy in the world and a significant portion of it is parked right off Iran. If anyone is going to control the straight, it is us. And easily.
But that didn’t stop the stupid liars – when the Mullah regime absurdly claimed it has ordered a US warship to depart and it had complied, the stupid liars were everywhere going, “see? We told you!”. Except they didn’t order anyone to do anything. They can’t. They lack the capability to seriously damage a US warship…and any attempt to do damage would mean instant death to anyone who tried. That is, opening fire on us just tells us where you are and so allows us to kill you. Fanaticism can get you a long ways but it takes fanaticism of a rare level to press a button which will result in your instant death without any real chance you’ll kill the enemy.
Aside from slick enemy propaganda, I think part of our problem here is that it has been so long since real American victory that nobody can recognize it. Take a look at this:

Thus the American people heard of Dewey’s victory in Manila Bay. If this happened in 2026, we’d have headlines saying Dewey was now doomed because the Spanish army in the Philippines was 30,000 strong and could mine the harbor yadda yadda yadda. But those who bought that paper knew we had won – we controlled the sea. Whatever the Spanish army wanted to do, it couldn’t stop us from coming ashore where and when we wanted. That was the reason Dewey was ordered to attack the Spanish fleet at Manila the instant war was declared…because that was game over for the Philippines. The only thing the Spanish could after their fleet was destroyed was kill people…but, being civilized, they didn’t do that. The Spanish authorities in the Philippines capitulated quickly. The Mullahs are barbarians and so are quite willing to keep killing even when its pointless…but that doesn’t mean we haven’t won.
The bottom line is that the Mullah regime lacks the military capacity to alter the course of events. Even if we decided to, say, take Bandar Abbas to seal our control of the Straight, there would be nothing the Mullahs can do. They can’t stop us from coming ashore and they could not eject us once we are ashore. The Iranian army is some 300,000 strong but it is already heavily degraded (lost in the shuffle was a lot of American and Israeli targeting of Iranian military vehicles and ammunition stores) and if it came out en masse and surged against American positions at Bandar Abbas it would simply be massacred. The amount of intensely coordinated firepower we’d be able to inflict on them would simply kill them all before they could even come to grips with us. The larger risk to Americans would be in the aftermath trying to clear away the bodies before they became a health hazard.
Now, it is clear that Trump prefers not to commit US ground forces in Iran. I don’t want us to, either. And I do want this thing wrapped up quickly. Trump wants a deal – but if the Mullah regime is really that stupidly insane they won’t take a deal, then they’ll be swiftly destroyed. This is not going to be winning the war – that is already won. This will just be getting rid of idiots who won’t admit they’re beaten. Had to do it with Japan and Germany in WWII. They were decisively defeated by late 1943. Any sane person would have called it quits by then and taken the best deal possible from the victors…but they kept at it until we were forced to reduce both nations to junk heaps. So be it. Their choice. What they wanted. If the Mullahs want that, they’ll be obliged.




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