Nonsense Vs Common Sense

Some years ago I used to comment on a particular blog – I eventually stopped because the owner of the blog got mad at a comment I made and put me on a sort of suspension…which I wasn’t about to put up with, so I just stopped going there. The issue at hand was that in a discussion of the French Revolution, I had pointed out that a great deal of what brought it about was not so much a desire for liberté, égalité, fraternité but, instead, a desire on the part of French bankers to get repaid for loans they had made to the government. Trouble was, the government really didn’t have the money to repay…but sitting just over there, helping to prop up the overall government and social system of France, was the French Catholic Church, owning at least 10% of all wealth in France. Too big a target to pass up – but getting that money required a major change in how France was governed.

To be sure, there were a lot of things needing deep reform in French government – and this was readily conceded by just about everyone from the King on down…and so the calling of the états généraux precisely to get reform done. But the King felt he could not alter the fundamental structure of French society – which included the French Church being largely outside the control of the government and continuing to possess it’s wealth and property. In the end, no one was going to go to the barricades under a slogan to despoil the Church so that the bankers could get repaid – and, so, liberté, égalité, fraternité. All quickly hijacked by people like Robespierre who did have definite ideas of what they wanted – even if a lot of people had to be killed to get there. As it was, the people of France didn’t really want that, either…but they got both (despoiled Church and guillotines); mostly because someone who wasn’t The People (experts, as it were) decided it should be so. At all events, by speaking the apparent heresy that it wasn’t, perhaps, just a spontaneous revolt of the people, I got into trouble. I had, it would seem, questioned the wisdom of experts on the matter. I don’t know what makes a person an expert on the French Revolution – after all, the only thing we can do is read about it and then decide for ourselves what it all meant. I had read about it for a long, long time from a wide variety of sources and it just suddenly struck me one day that in addition to helping to finance the Parisian mobs, the bankers were quick to get the National Assembly to nationalize Church property and pass the cash along to the bankers.

I bring this up because over the course of this year I’ve been hearing again and again that the problem with the Trumpsters is that they simply don’t know what they are talking about. They don’t realize that easy immigration and free trade are good for America. They don’t realize that their little communities are doomed and so they’ll just have to suck it up, move away and find something else to do. They don’t realize, most importantly, that those who have expertise simply know better and thus they should just accept leadership from the experts. I’d like to point out at this juncture that the experts have one thing in common pretty much across all human societies – they are almost invariably wrong when they step outside their area of expertise.

No lesson seems to be so deeply inculcated by the experience of life as that you should never trust experts. If you believe the doctors, nothing is wholesome: if you believe the theologians, nothing is innocent: if you believe the soldiers, nothing is safe. They all require to have their strong wine diluted by a very large admixture of common sense. – Robert Cecil, 3rd Marquess Salisbury, Prime Minister of Great Britain

Experts do have their place. When I want a tooth out, I go to a dentist – an expert in removing teeth. When I want the sink fixed, I go to a plumber – an expert in plumbing. If I want a war fought, I go to a general – an expert in moving men and material around. If I want to decide whether or not I should go to the dentist, get a plumber or fight a war, then I go to myself. I think it over and make the decision that appears best to me. I’d no more allow someone to decide for me how I should view such matters than I’d allow someone to decide for me if I should get married.

The trouble with our experts is that they presume their expertise in a narrow field means they have a general expertise applying to all facets of human life. A really good example is Noam Chomsky, winner of the Nobel Prize in Linguistics. Clearly a brilliant man (though some of his ideas have come into question of late). If I wanted some advice on linguistics, I’d be at the man’s feet, waiting for his wisdom. But Chomsky doesn’t seem to do much in linguistics of late – but he does seem to spend a great deal of time commenting on every subject under the sun. That, itself, wouldn’t be a bad thing, but we are told we are to hold his views on non-linguistic matters in awe because he’s a brilliant linguist. Sorry, ain’t happening. At least not as far as I’m concerned. His views on foreign policy are no better than mine – Nobel Prize notwithstanding. If he says something on that subject, I’ll listen to it and give it as much consideration as any other view…and if it doesn’t fit in with what I believe to be correct, I’ll discard his views.

And here’s the kicker – you really can’t get expertise on things which are not of some sort of mechanic art. Once again, we know a good dentist because the actions of his dentistry have good results. No matter how many degrees a person has in economics, foreign policy, etc. we can’t be sure that the person has got it right – even if it appears right for a while, later events still might falsify his views and actions. You can’t falsify the fact that after the drilling and filling my cavity is cured. Well educated, brave, dedicated and experienced commanders still managed to allow the Battle of the Bulge to happen. Because even being an expert soldier is not the same as being an expert dentist. It isn’t purely mechanical – it is something subject to an unlimited number of variables which cannot all be foreseen even in the best of circumstances. To flat out assert to me, for instance, that free trade is always a good thing is to assert impossible knowledge – you can’t possibly know all the variables involved and thus while these three free trade deals worked out just fine, the fourth one might be an utter disaster.

Other than mechanic arts, each thing has to be taken or rejected on it’s apparent merits or demerits. And in deciding if it’s good or bad, the yokel in a barbecue joint in Akron might be right while the professor in the Ivy League is wrong. The only difference is that, hopefully, the professor has some additional knowledge to provide which might help the yokel make a better decision…but the yokel must be consulted and must participate in the decision-making process. To exclude him on the grounds that he lacks specialized knowledge is to pretty much ensure that the wrong decisions will be made – because the decision will be made without that “very large admixture of common sense”. At the end of the day, additionally, it is better to go with the yokel’s views than the expert’s because yokel has at least a shot at understanding how the decision might effect him and those like him…the common run of humanity who ultimately pay all the bills – in blood and treasure – for a nation’s decisions. This is especially true as the professor, in his rarefied atmosphere, might have got his head stuffed with a lot of nonsense…for instance, he might have a Marxist view of things, and this would pretty much ensure that anything he believes is at 180 degrees variance from reality (how a guy who never worked a day in his life gets to be the arbiter of what working people want is just beyond my understanding).

The revolt of the Trumpsters – and the revolt of the BLMers – is not a revolt of the stupid against the smart, but of common sense against nonsense. It is people who, while inarticulate and uninformed on many matters (and thus getting some things wrong), yet understand that what is happening to them in their daily lives just isn’t right. To try and tell them that things will get right if they just shut up and do as they’re told is probably not going to move them. In fact, it will probably just make them more angry.

We do live in an age of experts – set up that way by experts. It all started, really, back during the Woodrow Wilson Administration but didn’t get set in stone until FDR…when the government proposed to manage the economy for the benefit of all. Experts would do it – people who had gone to college and got degrees in economics and such would take over and make sure things worked. That they failed utterly didn’t seem to dismay them, at all. They lucked out – World War Two happened and then the post-WWII population boom, which allowed for a massive increase in global wealth which made it appear that the experts were on to something. Vietnam started to disabuse people of this notion – that was the experts war from start to finish. They were going to manage that war so that we’d get victory quickly and on the cheap and without having to disturb people in their daily lives here at home. It didn’t work out that way and the first doubts among regular folks appeared…but so embedded in power were the experts that they’ve managed to keep it going, now apparently joined even by some on the right who also got college degrees and a growing mistrust of the people.

It is a mistrust I don’t share. I don’t dislike the unwashed masses. Even when I hear what are massively mis-informed views being expressed, I’m not dismayed. The Trumpsters and the BLMers get some things very wrong. I don’t think the way to deal with this is to read them out of the community of people. They are our people, folks – our fellow Americans. And they have a right to speak their minds, and we have a responsibility to listen to them. And I think by listening to them we might find that we, ourselves, are corrected. This nation is in a gigantic mess – it took us more than 100 years to get into this mess and all of us bear some responsibility for making the mess. It will take the efforts of all of us to get us out of the mess…and anyone who is absolutely dismissive of others simply won’t be able to participate. Even the most obtuse – whether a Marxist professor or a pub-patriot – must be allowed to participate. It is the only way we can do this. But one very necessary step will be for the “experts” to climb off their high horse and start listening…once a bit of listening has gone on, then there will be a better ability to explain to those who do know less, and perhaps do need some guidance to the correct path.

This Weird Year

So, the Mrs and a good friend went to early vote here; two entirely different locations. No biggie – it’s still nearly 3 weeks before election day, but might as well get it out of the way. It isn’t out of the way – they both came across hour-long lines to vote. Just to put it into perspective here, folks: this was on a balmy Saturday afternoon…and people were lined up to vote.

Why line up to vote? There’s plenty of time to vote – all the way until November 8th. Unless you’re leaving town tomorrow and won’t be back until the 9th, why bother if there’s any wait, at all? But people were bothering. Lots of them. Who are they voting for? No idea, of course. Now, ask yourself, who is more likely to generate enough excitement to convince someone to wait in line on a beautiful Saturday afternoon for an hour to vote? You can make your own guesses. I’ve made mine. We’ll all see on November 8th.

Almost everyone is in a bubble this year. Trumpsters. HillBots. Beltway Conservatives. I don’t think anyone really knows what is going on – but they keep yammering on as if they do. I have decided to come through to November 9th with the certainty of no egg on my face. It’s an easy trick to do – all you have to do is admit ignorance. I’ve seen the predictions for a Hillary Landslide and a Trump Landslide and everything in between. But no one really knows. It isn’t a matter of “the polls may be wrong” – given that we have polls showing everything from a 12 point Hillary lead to a 2 point Trump lead, at least some of the polls are definitely wrong. I’ve seen State polls come out within a day of each other showing 180 degree difference in the direction of the race. Supposedly, the pollsters are calling the same population and should generally come up with the same result – but, they aren’t. The problem, I think, is that the electorate is in flux…rich people who normally vote GOP are flooding into Democrat ranks, while working class people who normally vote Democrat are on fire for Trump…and the joker in the deck is rare- and never-voters. Some indicators are out there that the number of Independents in some Battle Ground States have massively grown in numbers. Grown in numbers to vote for Hillary or Trump? No one can possibly know.

I refuse the bubble. I’ve even started closely following some Progressive Twitter accounts – they are often more interesting than the Conservative accounts this year because all too often those accounts are just yelling at each other over Trump. The depth of Progressive dislike of Hillary, by the way, is astonishing. I do expect them to pull the lever for Hillary because Trump, for most of them, is very much a bridge too far…but you just watch what happens in 2017 if Hillary does win…there’s going to be a Progressive revolt in the Democrat ranks because Hillary, especially if she has a GOP Congress, won’t be able to bring about the sort of Progressive policies they are demanding. The sort of revolt we’ve seen against the GOP leadership is brewing now on the left against the Democrat leadership. And more power to them – I don’t see why they should continually put up with Democrats who talk a great game of bashing the banks and then take $250,000.00 speaking fees from them.

In the United States and around the world, the post-WWII consensus is crumbling. As long as people felt financially secure, all was well – but now people don’t feel all that secure, and so all bets are off. Trump might not duplicate the Bexit result, but the fact that he’s even in the mix shows that American politics isn’t what is used to be. He’s said a dozen thing which, had anyone said them even 4 years ago, would result in him being down 20 points in the RCP averages by now. Even if the reality is a 6 point Hillary lead as RCP indicates, then that shows how close to the edge of destruction the Establishment is. They might well drag granny across the finish line this year, but it will be at the cost of losing the last of their credibility with the people…and that is right and left. And if the average folks of the left and right ever figure out that, ultimately, their problem is the same group of people, then look out.

Unlike many who appear to be in agony over this election, I’m not. I’m quite happy and content. I’m going to vote and then just see what happens. No matter what the result, you won’t see my shocked face. You will see my happy face if Hillary loses – but that will mostly be because of the sweet satisfaction of seeing that grifter couple brought low. But if Hillary wins, you won’t see my sad face – I’m too familiar with history to see anything but destruction ahead for the people who would make a Hillary victory. They don’t see it, of course – some how or another they expect that this fake money, debt-ridden, low-growth economy can just keep going, and that no matter how nauseatingly corrupt they are, they’ll never be turned out. The Bourbons thought that, too.

The votes are there to turn them out, right now. It’s just a question of when they will coalesce to do so. This year? 2020? 2024? Eventually, it will happen. One thing that is very clear to me is that both Trumpsters and BLM have genuine reasons for complaint. Both of them miss some very important things, and that’s a pity. But the bottom line is that the system sucks for poor and working class people – BLMers are still looking to the Progressives who created the problems, while the Trumpsters are going after a man who talks the talk, but no one has any idea if he’ll walk the walk. It is forgotten these days that Reagan won by cobbling together a coalition of Conservatives and Populists against the GOP Establishment for the primaries and then the overall Establishment for the general election. Since Reagan, however, Conservatism has tried to step away from the people…to argue things out on issues, rather than on underlying philosophy. This has led Conservatism to be a bizarre defense of low corporate taxes while the people lose their jobs and homes and the Constitution is steadily shredded. Someone is eventually going to figure out how to properly tap into the frustrations out there and build a winning coalition. Trump still has his chance to do it – but if he doesn’t, you just watch Rubio or Rand Paul or some such do it. People expecting Rubio to slam Trumpsters and become Romney 3.0 for 2020 are simply not paying attention. There’s a reason for his refusal to break with Trump even as he cruises to a now-easy re-election. The reason is that he’s smart – he knows that if he ever wants to enter the White House (and I believe he does, very much) then he’s going to need the Trumpsters…meaning, he’s going to need some of those angry poor and working class people who have flocked to Trump’s standard this year. And if that means shedding a few traditional Conservatives on the side, he’ll do it.

We’ll all know soon enough how this year goes. I’ll end by saying that if we Conservatives want to be relevant then the time is not right for purges, but for figuring out how to ride the wave of political re-alignment.

The Great Debate Open Thread

First, from IBD which has Trump up by 1:

By gender, Clinton does much better among women — 47% to 37% — but Trump’s lead among men is just as strong at 47% to 32%. Trump does better among parents (46% to 32%), married women (44% to 41%), lower-class households (53% to 37%), and the religious, among whom Clinton’s support never tops 38%. Among those who express no religion, Clinton handily beats Trump 63% to 16%.

The fact that Trump is crushing it among lower-class households is a warning sign for Democrats – even if they win this one, they are getting in to a situation where they have no backup if their core voters abandon them. This is akin to the position the GOP was in where we only won as long as we kept certain groups happy (for us, it was suburban voters). We’re one financial crash away from Democrats losing everything. Meanwhile, most other polling (other than Rasmussen and LA Times) shows this race a walk-over for Hillary. My thinking – Hillary’s support is a mile wide right now, but an inch deep. If Trump can find a convincing argument for why people should vote for him – and stick to it without being distracted for even just a week – then he could still pull this off.

Malik Obama – the President’s half-brother – wants to Make America Great Again.

People are very much keying in on the amount of Anti-Semitism bubbling up in some areas of the right this year – but less examined is the rising Anti-Semitism of the left. At least Trump can say kind things about Israel and not risk any substantial support…Hillary’s people were worried that even mentioning Israel might be problematic. As the linked article states, Hillary is likely to be less hostile to Israel than Obama has been (and this is in keeping with my view that neither Trump nor Hillary can be as bad as Obama has been), but the bottom line is that, for Democrats, there isn’t much upside in being friendly to Israel…and as the left wallows ever more deeply in things like BDS, there is a risk that supporting Israel in the future will become an entirely GOP thing. Small wonder that Israel is reaching out to places like India and Russia…

Proof that some people keep in the public eye way too long after their sell-by date.

O’Keefe’s videos showing Clinton skullduggery were absolutely nothing – but, they went ahead and fired the guy anyway.

Some Odds and Ends

You can have Rules or Rulers, a wise man once said – meaning that you can either live by dogma, or you can live by the whim of a King. Take your pick – I prefer dogmas, myself.

A GOP office in North Carolina was fire bombed. Naturally, some Progs are thinking GOPers did it, themselves.

Know about the war in Somalia? Of course not – doesn’t fit the Obama Narrative. But, we are intensifying our effort in that war.

In October of 2008, a month before the election, the Democrats’ corporate paymasters had already settled on Obama’s cabinet. There is a bit of an internal battle among Democrats about how things will be divvied up in a Clinton Administration – hate to break it to you, earnest Progressive friends, but Democrats do not push back against those who write the checks.

Victor Davis Hanson lays out the modern medievalism of the United States. He notes that the modern medievalism lacks the saving grace of a deep, religious belief to provide a counter to despotism. I’ll never want to get too far into an argument with someone like Hanson – but the fact of life is that the Middle Ages were not so much an age of despotism as we moderns tend to think. Yes, people had a lot of duties to perform…but taxes took up a far smaller percentage of income than today and a person was free from relentless propaganda.

The Washington Post is convinced that Hillary has already won. So have most experts. Polling almost uniformly confirms this view. Except for the much-maligned LA Times Poll (currently showing a 0.6% Trump lead). Thing is, the Washington Post poll released yesterday pretty much has the race the same as it did in mid-September – Hillary ahead by 4; the Washington Post poll, in my experience, has always been a bit favorable for the Democrats (just as the Rasmussen poll very often favors Republicans). The spread in that poll is D+8 – but that is not as important as the fact that after a month of Team Hillary dropping nuclear Oppo on Trump, the race hasn’t changed much. In fact, none of the national polling I’ve seen actually shows much change over the past month. But, still, it almost all gives the advantage to Hillary – so, she’s the next President. As I said, only if Trump shakes up the normal electorate can he win…and such an shake up would not necessarily show up in polling. The LA Times says they have figured out how the electorate has been shaken up in 2016 and thus they stand by their polling – and Sean Trende notes that there is some reason for their confidence: the LA Times poll – called the Rand poll in the past – was dead-on in 2012. Of course, Trende also note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. My view – Hillary has the institutional advantage and by all traditional measures is the next President. And thank goodness that people are just in love with our institutions in this oh, so very traditional year.

UPDATE: the RCP average shows Clinton up by 7 – it’s over. Trump is heading for a crushing loss. So, has the LA Times poll gone along? Nope: Trump is now up 1.6 points in that poll. Just weird – and I guess we won’t know for sure until 11/8. If you’re betting money, lay it on Hillary…but maybe make a side bet on Trump.

UPDATE II: I’ve been a Republican since I became an adult. My first ballot was cast in 1988 – I could have voted in ’84, of course, but I was overseas in the Navy and absentee balloting wasn’t much of a thing back then; certainly not for a 19 year old squid. I did some volunteer work for George H W Bush in 1988 – but I had to reach out to volunteer. I’ve donated a few times to various GOP campaigns, but I think my last time was in ’04 (though I may have donated a bit in ’06 – but whatever I’ve done in the past 12 years, it wasn’t much). Other than that 1988 thing, I’ve never done any volunteer work. So, while Republican I’m pretty much off the radar – certainly haven’t donated this year either to the GOP, GOP candidates or Donald Trump. So, much to my surprise, I get a phone call today from the Trump campaign asking if I’d like to volunteer.

I’ve read several bits from GOPers swearing that they’ve got this Cracker Jack GOTV for November – something which will do wonders. I’ve doubted it – and all reports are that Team Trump and the overall GOP are going to be skunked by Team Hillary and the DNC in GOTV efforts. Me getting a call today makes me wonder if that will really be the case.

Weekend Open Thread

So, why the Nuclear Oppo Dump on Trump this week? Perhaps because of the news that 100,000 PA Democrats have switched to the GOP this past year? Now, to be sure, about 38,000 GOPers switched to Democrats, but that is still pretty bad news. Meanwhile, the PA GOP says that, in total, the GOP has signed up 243,139 since November of last year. The bad news? Given what Romney won in 2012 in PA, that would not be quite enough…if Hillary does as well as Obama overall. If. Big freaking IF. Oh, Trump back in the lead in Ohio.

A peak at what a Hillary Presidency would be like after she appoints a few Justices – Venezuela’s Supreme Court just ruled that the President can write his own budget.

If you like your freedoms, you can keep your freedoms – Feingold caught on tape stating that Hillary would use executive orders to curb gun rights. But, yeah, way more important to stop Trump ’cause he’s gross and all that…

Some like to think that if we had nominated Rubio, all would be well. I grant that smearing Rubio would have been more difficult than smearing Trump…but the Democrats would have done it anyway.

Always remember, the Democrats and the MSM don’t have to tell the truth – there is no power in this land which can make them tell the truth and there is no desire on their part that the truth be told.

Why, yes, Hillary does support taxpayer funded abortion on demand. Why? Because she has to – all senior Democrats must bow before the abortion lobby…

Former President of Haitian Senate calls the Clintons common thieves.

Podesta thinks he can get us backwards Catholics to change. He’s wrong. It doesn’t work like that – the Catholic Church just waits you out. Been around 2,000 years. Lot of changes during that time, folks – still the same, old Church.

You Can’t Say That About Democrats!

I did watch and/or listen to (was out driving, so part of it was on radio) a good portion of the debate last night. I admit that some of the things Trump said made me cringe – but as I thought it over, I realized that it wasn’t Trump’s rudeness which made me cringe but the mere fact that he was being rude to Democrats which made me cringe. I realized in an instant that I had been carefully conditioned over many decades to never really hit home against Democrats.

Think about it – we’ve all been conditioned. Ted Kennedy, in a drunken-drive, managed to get a woman (not his wife) killed. While that event pretty much ensured that Ted would never be President, it didn’t stop him from serving in the United States Senate for forty years after he got the woman killed. Forty years! Half a life time. And during that 40 years no one really called him on it. Oh, to be sure, some vulgar red-necks out there in fly-over country might go on about it from time to time, but not the general run of the GOP. Seven times after that incident Ted Kennedy went before the voters of Massachusetts seeking re-election to the Senate and if there ever was a GOPer who ran an ad, or even put out a flier, bringing up Chappaquiddick then I am unaware of it. And, meanwhile, Ted was just one of the boys – GOPers were proud to call him a friend; hang out with him; co-sponsor legislation with him; call him “esteemed colleague”. And then we gave the guy a State funeral when he died.

For goodness sake HE GOT A WOMAN KILLED. Shouldn’t that be a career-ending event?

Not for Democrats – and only because we’re not allowed to bring up just what it is they do. Not in any meaningful sense – and certainly not when they are in front of a national audience. That just wouldn’t do. It would be rude. Mean-spirited. A bit of the politics of personal destruction. Unworthy of anyone…who isn’t a Democrat, that is. Democrats are allowed to bring up whatever they want, no matter what the venue. And if there isn’t any real dirt on a Republican, Democrats are just allowed to make things up and never get called liars when they do…you know, like when Senator Harry Reid lied about Romney’s taxes. For decades it has gone on like this – Democrats can do really terrible things and we can’t use it against them while Democrats are free to bring against us anything they want. We’ve been like whipped dogs; quietly playing our part as honorable men and women who want what is best…but always working out to getting Democrats in power and Progressive policies getting enacted.

And then came Trump.

My goodness, what a crass, rude, vulgar man! I’m serious about that – a bull in a china shop is more elegant by comparison. Hang on him that famous sign which used to be present on animal cages in the Paris zoo: “Caution! This animal is vicious; when attacked, it defends itself”. For 90 minutes on Sunday night Hillary Clinton (and Bill), had to essentially just sit there and take it – someone talking openly (and rudely) about what they had done. Holding nothing back – just letting them have it (and it must have been even more excruciating for Bill as he’s just as much an alpha-male as Trump…just more charming; and he couldn’t hit back!). When it was done, it was clear that no matter what the election results will be, Hillary has been exposed before a national audience as someone who is unfit to be President of the United States. And saying Trump is unfit, as well, makes no matter – Hillary is damaged goods. Only a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat will ever think of her as other than a corrupt hack.

And…it was refreshing. A breath of clean, bracing air – a clearing away of cobwebs. It was invigorating. You know, like democratic politics are supposed to be…conventions are for aristocracies…democracies are rude, vulgar and crass and don’t give a darn about your rules of behavior. And from now on, we’re free to say what is on our mind about Democrats. I don’t expect most GOPers in current leadership will grasp this – certainly not all at once – but they’ve been given permission to just go at them with gusto…no matter how they do it, they won’t be able to out-vulgar Trump.

American politics are changing. The quiet dogmas of the past are fading away before our very eyes. There is no national consensus on what it means to be American, or what America should stand for. We’re working it out – and it is the nature of these things that there will be a period – perhaps quite prolonged – where things get quite hot. By every traditional measure of American politics, Hillary is the next President and that is probably what the result will be. Of course, it hasn’t exactly been a traditional year and so, hold on to your hats. But even if she gets in, all she represent is the corrupt, grasping, dying political order. In decades of public life she’s never accomplished anything other than to garner power and wealth, and that is all she’ll do as President…and, meanwhile, the American political scene will continue to seethe and boil…with people both of the left and the right furious with the status quo and looking for an answer. As Trump has very accurately said, a vote for her is a vote to keep things exactly as they are…but things as they are won’t work. Except for the rent-seekers already at the trough, everyone is getting the short end of the stick. Read a bit ago that Chicago is issuing short-term bonds…not in order to build infrastructure, but merely to keep up bloated pension payments for retired government employees. In other words, the money a Chicago taxpayer wants to go for his local school is being used to send a check to a guy who may be retired to Arizona…Chicago is essentially taking out payday loans to keep up the bribes the Ruling Class has paid to itself. This is not a system which is healthy or has any chance of surviving long term.

I don’t know how it will all work out – I freely admit that I know nothing, because what I know was learned up until now, and it is all based upon knowledge drawn upon the political settlement created between 1933 and 1964. All that is out the window, now. We’ll just have to see how it comes out – but at least we no longer have to be polite to political grifters while we work it out.

Astonishingly, 2016 Takes a Turn for the Worse

I don’t think I’ve ever been this disgusted with politics. The combination of willful blindness, mercilessness and vulgarity in 2016 has reached epic proportions. I admit to going on some Twitter rants today and saying some very intemperate things. But no insults! Still, calm reflection is now replacing anger and I’m really just thinking things over.

Never Trump is saying that the whole problem lies with Trumpster – but the reality is that both Never Trump and Trumpster were demanding all-or-nothing this year. Both sides got what they wanted – nothing. I lay the larger share of the blame on Never Trump. It appears to me that Never Trump, by refusing to treat with Trumpsters, was essentially resigning any ability to educate and channel Trumpster voters towards a more traditionalist, Conservative view of affairs. It was an abdication – but as it was also done in the meanest spirit possible, it was also a purposeful division (yes, plenty of Trumpsters were mean, as well – but when one side is feeling betrayed and acting out on that feeling, it is incumbent upon the other side to be the bearer of sweet reason and humility). And, now, the Trumpsters are justifiably feeling that this was Never Trump’s plan all along – knife the guy when the going got tough…and then demand in January that the Trumpsters just forgive and forget. I do think people should forgive and forget – but I suspect that the Trumpsters won’t be in a mood to do so. It was the duty of the Conservative leaders to go, hat in hand, to the Trumpsters, listen to their complaints, declare their support for the nominee and then work on ensuring that as much Conservatism as possible was injected into the Trump movement. They refused – and for all I can tell, their refusal was a matter of overweening pride rather than careful thought. Furious that the GOP base rejected their warnings, the leaders of Conservatism decided to teach the base a lesson.

Trump will almost certainly lose in November – I think that Independents are going to be vastly turned off by his vulgar comments and will either sit it out, or hold their nose and vote Hillary. Trump will retain his core supporters – and there is a high risk that these core supporters will abandon the GOP, never to return, thus making the GOP a minority party for a long time. Hillary as President – and possibly with a Democrat Congress – will be an utter disaster, and now there’s no assurance that the GOP can come back in 2018, as Trumpsters will still be furious for what they’ll view as a betrayal by the GOP. If Conservative leaders wanted to teach a lesson then they are also going to be taught a lesson – you can’t insult a substantial portion of your base and win – not now, not later. At all events, insulting people is never the way to go – tends to poison the well.

How do I feel right now? To paraphrase Chesterton, “as much as I ever did, more than I ever did, I believe in republicanism. But there was a rosy time of innocence when I believed in Republicans”.