The results of the NY-23 special election shocked quite a few of us. Knowing a number of people on the ground in the district, things looked continually better for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. But, with an apparent deficit of 5,000+ votes, and a less than stellar performance in his stronghold of Oswego County, it made perfect sense, based on the numbers, to concede.
But now it appears that the race is too close to call, with recanvassing closing Owens’ margin of victory to just over 3,000 votes.
Hoffman’s concession — based on snafus in Oswego County and elsewhere that left his vote undercounted — set off a chain of events that echoed all the way to Washington, D.C., and helped secure passage of a historic health care reform bill.
Democratic Rep. Bill Owens was quickly sworn into office on Friday, a day before the rare weekend vote in the House of Representatives. His support sealed his party’s narrow victory on the health care legislation.
Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections.
In Oswego County, where Hoffman was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, inspectors found Hoffman actually won by 1,748 votes — 12,748 to 11,000.
The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed, said John Conklin, communications director for the state Board of Elections.
Under a new law in New York that extended deadlines, military and overseas ballots received by this coming Monday (and postmarked by Nov. 2) will be counted. Standard absentee ballots had to be returned this past Monday.
Of course, there is something suspicious about these “snafus.”
The district’s second biggest voter turnout was in Jefferson County, where Hoffman also has benefited from a turnaround since election night, gaining about 700 votes. Owens led Hoffman by 300 votes on the final election night tally. But after recanvassing, Hoffman now leads by 424 votes, 10,884 to 10,460.
Jerry Eaton, the Republican elections commissioner for Jefferson County, said inspectors found a problem in four districts where Hoffman’s vote total was mistakenly entered as zero.
How does such a thing happen? I don’t know… but at least it can be fixed.
“We sent a letter to the clerk laying out the totals,” [John Conklin, communications director for the state Board of Elections] said. “The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed.”
My opinion is that it is unlikely the result will change, but there are a enough uncounted absentee ballots that given certain factors, make it possible. For one thing, Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens likely gave him votes, and these ballots are pre-Scozzafava’s dropping out. Military absentee ballots are likely to favor a Republican. As a third-party candidate, I don’t know if Hoffman will get enough of the absentee votes to swing the vote tally in his favor. Scozzafava will likely gain the most… but will Hoffman gain enough? I hope so, but I am only cautiously optimistic.
One thing is certain: it ain’t over yet. Regardless of whether the results change, all the votes must be counted.
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