It’s on. Predictions… thoughts… reports?
UPDATE:
Mitt Romney, John McCain Both Predicting Wins in Granite State
Obama, McCain Lead in Early (Negligible) NH Voting
GOP’s Thompson in SC instead of NH
NH primary could make, break candidacies
Analysis: NH win could launch McCain
Early returns (7% reporting) shown on Fox show Hillary and Obama neck-and-neck (37 and 36% respectively), and McCain with a good edge over Romney (38 to 28%).
Some early thoughts: If Huckabee comes in a distant third, he loses any momentum he gained in Iowa. If Romney comes in second, especially a close second, he’s still in the race. If McCain holds his early lead and wins by 10 points or so, it could be a two man race between him and Romney again. Ron Paul could defeat Huckabee.
UPDATE: Exit polls via Fox:
McCain: 35%
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 13%
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 18%
Here are my thoughts if these figures hold out… Hillary is still in the race, and could easily bounce back. Obama may be in a good position with two victories, but I’d have thought his bounce from Iowa would have been bigger.
For Huckabee to go from 1st place in Iowa to 3rd place is not good. He may have jumped in the polls from Iowa, but his inability to at least come in a close second only highlights the fact that his victory in Iowa came courtesy of the Evangelical vote. If Huckabee can only win a primary when there’s a high population of evangelical Christians, than it’s going to be a long primary season and a potential brokered convention.
UPDATE, 8:11 PM ET: Fox projects McCain winner in GOP primary…
UPDATE: Clinton still edging out Obama 40-35% with 13% reporting… Can Hillary win tonight
UPDATE, 8:53 PM ET: Clinton: 40% Obama 34% (23% reporting)
What if Obama loses?
Michael Barone says Hillary could take New Hampshire…
UPDATE, 9:33 PM ET: Revised/updated exit poll:
Clinton: 39%
Obama: 37%
Edwards: 16%
UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Here’s my insightful commentary – wow!
This is just amazing – and while the talking heads are saying that Edwards is out, I think there is no reason for anyone, on either side, to back out. I’m settling in for a long primary fight.
UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Fox News is reporting that the Culinary Union out here in Nevada, which was set to endorse Obama, is now holding off. Hillary and Obama are both locked in a tight fight here in Nevada – the Culinary is a massively important union in Nevada. For Democrats, its the brass ring…and if this report is correct, then it would be an indicator that the Democratic power structure has decided that Obama must be stopped. Keep in mind – next up is us in Nevada; our caucuses are on January 19th.
UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Edwards isn’t backing out…actually says he’s in the race to the convention!
UPDATE, by Matt Margolis: MSNBC projects Hillary win…
UPDATE, by Mark Noonan: Obama puts down the marker – he’s going to end the war in Iraq; he’s letting the left know that he’s their man. This is where the battle lines will be drawn: the left for Obama, the old-line Democratic establishment for Hillary. Who will win? As an aside, Obama says he’s in this to let the people take back their nation – top donors to Obama? People who work in insurance and lobbyists…there’s a big bunch ‘o change, huh?
Blogs For Victory 