RightWingSparkle offers her analysis of the state of the campaign:
The polls are back where they were before the conventions. McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie. Even when the polls show Obama up by 2 or 3 points, I’m not worried. Why? Because all indications should have him up by 15 points at least and he can’t break that 50% mark and stay there.
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Obama is running on the Democratic ticket with an unpopular Republican administration in power, gas prices out of control, and the economy in trouble. He should be riding the polls at 17 points at least.
I would add, that another relevant example would be AL Gore in 2000. If things were as great in the late 1990s as Democrats say they were, Al Gore should have won in a landslide…
Or at least, he would have won his home state.
With all the factors that should be contributing to a substantial lead for Obama, we still have a race that is virtually tied nationally, with blue battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania running neck and neck.
Are Democrats feeling a bit of buyer’s remorse? Privately, I’m sure many are. After nominating the most unqualified and inexperienced presidential candidate in history, it shouldn’t be too difficult, even for a partisan Democrat, to think maybe they should have gone with a leader with a strategy, not an orator with a teleprompter.
It also appears that enthusiasm for Obama is dwindling. In the battleground state of Wisconsin, Obama and McCain both recently held rallies in the same venue, and McCain drew a significantly larger crowd than Obama. The Obama campaign is downplaying the significance publicly.. but they have to be concerned.
Good times ahead.
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