After one month in office, Barack Obama sees his approval drop, disapproval jump, and all claims of him being “post-partisan” go right down the toilet.
Increased public disapproval of Obama over the past month is mainly offset by a decrease in the percentage of Americans saying they have no opinion of his job performance. The latest figures are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Feb. 19-21.
These shifts result in a slightly different profile for Obama relative to past presidents than what he enjoyed in the immediate afterglow of his inauguration. While Obama’s initial 68% job approval rating was one of the highest in Gallup polling history (from Dwight Eisenhower through George W. Bush), his current 63% job approval rating is typical of how the last several presidents have fared at the one-month mark.
So, as Republicans were clearly willing to give Obama a chance, Obama’s My-Way-Or-The-Highway Style “Bipartisanship” brought his historically high initial approval rating to a historically average approval rating.
According to Gallup, most presidents see an initial rise in their approval.
All newly elected presidents start off with a relatively high approval score, as well as a high percentage of Americans expressing “no opinion” about their job performance. As they start to make decisions, deliver speeches, and work with Congress, fewer Americans have “no opinion” about their performance, and most presidents see an initial rise in their approval rating. Historically, that rise has been evident after a month, and continues at least through the first 100 days.
So what can we make of this? What does this say about the potential approval ratings for Obama in the longterm? I think all presidents from now on will see their approval ratings teeter around 55% after an appropriate time has passed where the presidents performance can be properly judged on his presidential record. I expect Obama’s ratings to hit that mark within the 2009 calendar year. Obama clearly has decided to abandon his promise of bipartisanship, and thus the good will shown by Republicans will bleed away.
UPDATE: Today Gallup reports that Obama’s approval rating has now dipped below 60% for the first time, with independents now starting to see the light:
The drop below 60% approval within the past week — from 63% in Feb. 18-20 polling to 59% in Feb. 21-23 polling — has mostly come among independents. Late last week, 62% of independents approved of Obama, compared with 54% in the last three days.
His approval with Democrats has dipped (although to a statistically insignificant degree) while approval from Republicans, which has already took a big hit, remains unchanged from the last poll.
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