Lance Roberts over at Zero Hedge thinks so:
Unemployment is potentially set to rise sharply in the coming months. That is a pretty bold claim on the surface and one that flies in the face of both mainstream economists, and the White House which is about to unveil a new “jobs plan”.
Let’s take a quick look at some numbers: 8, 160, 400, 350, 12 and 5. There have only been 8 weeks out of last 160 weeks that unemployment claims have been below 400 thousand claims. In normal circumstances we are worried about recessions when claims are rising above 350 thousand claims. Furthermore, jobless claims tend to plunge below 350 thousand a week within 12 months after the end of a recession. Currently we are still holding above 400 thousand claims after more than two full years since the recession statistically ended…
But what about “5”? He gets to that – the STA Composite Employment Index. When it gets to “5” or less, it is a solid indicator of a recession. Right now, it is at “5”.
But even without that, anyone with eyes to see knows that the economy is in bad shape – the mere fact that we’re sitting on 400,000+ plus claims for unemployment week after week after week shows that we are, at best, treading water…and more likely we’re slowly losing ground, in spite of all the new jobs the Bureau of Labor Statistics claims we’re creating (of course, it must be noted that then the BLS says “X” jobs were created in month “Y” it is really no more than a guess…and it will be about a year before we know how many really were created in month “Y”…and if BLS guesses wrong…). Along with the jobs picture, every metric of economic activity has been pathetic for a “recovery” period…and they are all trending towards worse. Even when some statistic comes in higher than expected, it is not high enough to indicate a robust economy.
It remains to be seen whether or not Bernanke will print up a bag of money to keep us out of official recession through the 2012 election – I think it would be disastrous, and may not even give us fake “growth”. But he may try it – the Ruling Class is worried about a political revolution in the United States next year and will pull out all the stops to ensure that Obama is re-elected. Or, failing that, that the eventual GOPer is wedded to the current system. These people don’t care if America is going to heck in a handbasket…all they care is that they remain rich and in charge.
Brace yourselves – we’re going to have to deal from now through election day with a bad economy and an exceptionally nasty, political fight. We will win – and win rather big, I think – but it will take every last ounce of effort we can muster. As for me, I’m excited about the prospect and looking forward to the battle…it will be honorable, it will be fun and it will change America.
Blogs For Victory 
“the Ruling Class is worried about a political revolution in the United States next year and will pull out all the stops to ensure that Obama is re-elected. Or, failing that, that the eventual GOPer is wedded to the current system.”
Mark, In your opinion, which GOP candidates do you not consider to be wedded to the system?
GMB,
The only two that I considered wedded to the system (but still a vast improvement over Obama) are Romney and Huntsman. Those most willing to conduct a revolution are Bachmann, Paul and Cain…the rest fall in various “in-between” shades. As of right now, Bachmann is my first choice, Cain is my second…Paul only gets my support if he by some miracle manages to get nominated…while he’s excellent on the economic matters, he’s a complete dunderhead in foreign and defense matters.
Echo 🙂
Will unemployoment increase? I’m sure the donks will find a way to give more tax payer cash to thier loyal voter base.
Unemployment will not increase (unless something really major happens). The obAMATEUR lapdogs in the BLS will “allow” more people to fall from the calculation, where they are not considered “unemployed”. And POOF magically unemployment will stay the same or even “improve”.
Tired, the point to keep in mind, though, is that, just because someone falls off the unemployment rolls, doesn’t mean they don’t exist, but I’ll bet a lot of them will vote. How many of the long-term unemployed do you think are going to reward ObiOne with another term?
The BLS is an independent body. We doubt highly they as career government employees have any more political motivation now than they did in 1996, 2002, 2005 or 2009. This past recession has been harder on the white middle class than any since the 1950s in regard to employment. This explains much of the conservative suspicion We feel.
the epa and environmental service “happens” all the time…you can expect this number to rise as colder weather approaches
0 jobs…9.1 unemployment..and…
“The report also showed that job creation in July, which originally came in better than expected, actually wasn’t as good as thought. The 117,000 jobs originally announced was cut to 85,000, while June’s number fell from 46,000 to a mere 20,000.”
the ole shuffle sows that we also lost 52k more jobs we were not told about in the last….60 days…meaning…that this 0 we have this month…probably is a -20 to -80 k jobs…for real…
er…58k jobs lost….
Same story on Huffpost. Over there the tea party and “rethuglicans” are to blame. Here Obama is to blame.
Of course here we get the added bonus of “obAMATEUR lapdogs in the BLS”. A pretty clear example of violating the 9th commandment i.e. accusing people of dishonest actions without any proof.
Dolf,
I just Googled “BLS fudges unemployment numbers”. Take your pick of articles. The last one is even from your favorite, Hufpo. Don’t know if you would consider any of these “proof”, but I don’t know anyone who believes actual unemployment is only 9.1%, especially the people who are unemployed.
Spook
That the BLS uses a metric which doesn’t conform to reality is not the accusation. The accusation is that the BLS will intentionally change the metric as a favor to Obama. There is NO proof the that our fellow citizens at the BLS will do such a thing.
To accuse an institution of misleading practices is one thing. To accuse the people working at the institution of dishonesty is another. There is no biblical injunction against bearing false witness against the IRS. There is an injunction against doing so with IRS agents.
not much this administration does conforms with reality…its like…libtards with thier heads up thier beehinds…they cant see whats in front of them…they cant see whats behind them…shoot…they see…thats the problem…ignorance begets ignorance…and reprobates are…ignorant…
The “Independent” BLS works for the Administration as a part of the Department of Labor.
They have no reason to fudge the numbers. /sarc
LOL
Thanks to obama we have now triple digest unemployment, thanks to obama we are now slipping and sliding to third world status