My updated map makes some assumptions based on my confidence on select states, based on polling and anecdotal evidence.
FL, NC, VA are good for Romney.
As is OH and CO. Based on what the 2012 battleground state slate is, these states get him to 275 electoral votes and the win.
In gray are swing states that I’m not ready to call but are all, in my view, bonus states to win. If Mitt wins by only one state, you can bet your life that the results will be contested. So, he needs to win MI, or PA, or either MN or WI plus IA or NH to give Obama no opportunity to contest the results.
And while I still think PA is a long shot, as I just reported, Bill Clinton is making an 11th hour push there, and as Obama’s best surrogate, that suggests Obama’s internal polling shows a race within the MOE.