Updated Electoral Prediction

My updated map makes some assumptions based on my confidence on select states, based on polling and anecdotal evidence.

FL, NC, VA are good for Romney.

As is OH and CO. Based on what the 2012 battleground state slate is, these states get him to 275 electoral votes and the win.

In gray are swing states that I’m not ready to call but are all, in my view, bonus states to win. If Mitt wins by only one state, you can bet your life that the results will be contested. So, he needs to win MI, or PA, or either MN or WI plus IA or NH to give Obama no opportunity to contest the results.

And while I still think PA is a long shot, as I just reported, Bill Clinton is making an 11th hour push there, and as Obama’s best surrogate, that suggests Obama’s internal polling shows a race within the MOE.

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53 thoughts on “Updated Electoral Prediction

    • Retired Spook November 3, 2012 / 5:58 pm

      These guys haven’t missed since 1980, and they’ve been predicting a Romney landslide since mid summer — from the People’s Republic of Boulder, CO, no less.

    • M. Noonan November 3, 2012 / 11:07 pm

      So says the guy who entirely missed the GOP wave of 2010…

      • 02casper November 4, 2012 / 1:00 am

        He didn’t miss it, he underestimated it. Also

        In 2008, Mr. Silver had John McCain, Republican, favored in Indiana, and Barack Obama won.

        In 2009, he had gay marriage favored to pass in Maine, and it did not.

        In 2010, he had Sharron Angle, Republican, favored in Nevada, and Harry Reid won.

        In 2010, he had Ken Buck, Republican, favored in Colorado, and Michael Bennet won.

        In 2010, he had the Tea Party Republican, Joe Miller, favored in the Alaska Senate race, and the moderate Republican, Lisa Murkowski, won.

        In 2010, he had Bill Brady, Republican, favored in the Illinois governor’s race, and Pat Quinn won.

        In 2010, he had Republicans projected to win 55 House seats, and they won 63.

        There were three cases in which Mr. Silver had Mitt Romney favored in the primaries, but Rick Santorum won.”

        He has however, been right far more often than wrong.

      • 02casper November 4, 2012 / 1:01 am

        Mark,
        Should we compare his record with yours?

      • Amazona November 4, 2012 / 10:11 am

        casper seems to have spent a lot of time delving into Silver’s record, such as it is. Isn’t it funny how Silver has become the new heartthrob of the RRL? I guess they need someone new to swoon over.

        Yet none of the Natebots has found time to defend Obama’s record or tell us why the next four years would be any better than the last, if he is reelected.

        Perhaps their grasp on reality is greater than I thought, therefore the shift to a new hero to defend and swoon over.

        Evidently the new crowd chant of “Well, We Couldn’t, But We Might Be Able To Next Time” hasn’t been all that popular.

      • M. Noonan November 4, 2012 / 10:28 pm

        Casper,

        I’ve been wrong twice – and I’m not touted as a super genius political analyst. I’m just this guy who blogs…

  1. cyberactor November 3, 2012 / 2:00 pm

    Yeah, Mitch, I showed them the same blog but they pretend it doesn’t exist. “New York Times! Biased, liberal trash, blah, blah, blah.” But even a casual look at the polling will reveal how crazy this blog’s prediction is. I mean honestly: Michigan? Minnesota? Iowa? Barack is going to win those in a walk. Not even a question about it. Yet…they’re GRAY on this map? Like they’re tossup states? Please.

    And the only reason Bill Clinton is in Pennsylvania is because Romney, in a kooky hail-mary pass, has decided to try and contest the state at the last minute, so Clinton is there to provide a little blowback. But Obama’s winning PA, too, so no worries.

    Remember MY prediction, Mark: Barack wins AT LEAST 290 electoral votes on Tuesday, cueing the yappers on this blog to start hollering fraud. Count on it.

    • Amazona November 3, 2012 / 2:09 pm

      You know, we can tell when you are lying.

      Basically, words appear after your name.

      No one “pretended it doesn’t exist”. What an utterly stupid and dishonest comment.

      No, we looked at it, realized that all it is is an opinion, weighed it against other opinions, found it less than compelling, and moved on.

      I even posted comments on your precious little NYT blog from another source, which had commented on the same thing—Silver’s dependence on factoring in old poll data to weight his current figures.

      Think what you like,believe what you like, but please don’t lie about what we think.

      Nice preemptive strike, though, setting up your own little fantasy in which the only reason anyone could accuse the Left of fraud is if they are “yappers”. I see you expect your side’s wholly predictable antics to be recognized, and are trying to head off the response.

      I see you are still stuck in your Identity Politics, Slash and Smear, mode. At least James had the manly parts to stand up on his hind legs and state a clear and coherent political philosophy. We know better than to expect that from either of you.

      • cyberactor November 4, 2012 / 1:23 am

        Identity politics? Slash and smear? Please. This from the party that has labeled my President (among other things) Muslim, Kenyan, anti-Christian, atheist, socialist, marxist, communist, racist, apologist, etc. etc. etc. As bad as you claimed Bush Derangement Syndrome to be, you guys have doubled down on that kind of slander and taken it to a whole new level with your attacks on Obama. (Here’s a wonderful video that shows EXACTLY how crazy your side has become: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nY0M7IdNl7U).

        Nate Silver has given me great solace over the past month. And come Tuesday, when Barack wins Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and potentially a whole lot of other swing states to claim the big prize, he will be vindicated.

        I notice how you don’t dispute my claim that, at the very least, Michigan and Minnesota will to go to Obama (despite the ludicrous claim that they are “tossup” states). At least one of you appears to live in the real world. Congrats.

      • Amazona November 4, 2012 / 9:42 am

        Gee…how to break this to you.

        neocon is not the Republican Party. He knows he is just one guy, we know he is just one guy, but you seem to have anointed him as the spokesman for the entire party. I’m sure he is honored, but still——–

        And I thought your party is the party claiming there is nothing at all wrong with being Muslim, atheist, communist or socialist, so why are you now claiming that being called any of these things is an insult? Much less an attack?

        (BTW, even if Obama did have a genuine conversion to Christianity, according to Muslims he is still a Muslim—why do you insist on insulting this religion by denigrating its belief system?)

        If you get the vapors over having your president called an apologist, just because he—–APOLOGIZES——then it looks like you need a different president. We’ve been trying to tell you……………

        I didn’t watch the whole video clip, but about halfway through the worst I could find was people who simply don’t know what Romney’s plan is for improving the economy. If this is your criterion for “crazy” then you are indicting every single person who voted for Obama last time, as no one knew what his plan was then, either. Or if he had one. Or cared. All that mattered then was that he was The One We Have All Been Waiting For, and he was Notbush.

        I am glad for you that Nate Silver has been your blankie these last few weeks, and kudos for no longer claiming he has kept you sane, a claim so easily debunked, and for now admitting that he just makes you feel all good inside. I see you are now focused on “vindicating” him—how sweet. I hope he appreciates his little fan club.

        But please take note of the fact that we are fully aware that your sound and your fury are not focused on explaining to us how and why Obama has done such a wonderful job that we will be better off as a nation if he continues to be president for four more years. You have lots of diversions and distractions and LOTS of emotion, but no significant defense of your guy or the job he has done.

        No defense of how he handled Benghazi, for example. He was right on it, according to his preening, when it came to giving orders to shoot Somali pirates. He was THE “Decider”, according to him (but not to anyone else) when it came to pulling the trigger on Bin Laden. But when it came to protecting our own, while people sat in the White House Situation Room watching them being attacked for seven hours, ignoring their pleas for help, he didn’t even vote “Present”.

        Probably too busy packing for Vegas.

        No defense of the murder of hundreds if not thousands of Mexicans thanks to his stupid plan to convince Americans that guns are too easy to get.

        No defense of the debt, or the deficit, or the failure to have a budget. No defense of him telling Republicans that they could sit in on talks but would have to “sit in the back of the bus”.

        And so on.

        No, what you’ve got is Nate Silver.

    • Cluster November 3, 2012 / 2:12 pm

      Cyber,

      Don’t you think you’re being a little hypocritical when you accuse this blog of ignoring some polls, when you do the very same thing? Gallup and Rasmussen has some very different results than PPP, or NBC, and the over sampling of democrats in those two latter polls is demonstrable. Obama will not “walk away” with any swing state, and the fact is is that this will be a very close election.

      I think Romney wins FL, NC, and CO, and very well might win VA, WI, NH and OH.

      • cyberactor November 4, 2012 / 2:03 pm

        Actually, Cluster, Rasmussen and Nate Silver are almost identical when it comes to identifying the safe/leaning states and their current numbers. Which is why the map above is so ludicrous. Even Rasmussen, who we all know leans right, concedes that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota are more likely Obama than not. (Certainly the numbers are the same pro-Obama in those states as they are pro-Romney in states like North Carolina.)

        We ALL KNOW it’s going to come down to Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia. In most of these states (most of which Obama carried the last time around), Obama not only has a slight lead- he also has a head start, with 237 electoral votes already guaranteed. He only needs 33 more to close the deal and, like it or not, he’s going to get them. Hell, guys- he could win without Ohio OR Florida. And if that doesn’t make you shake in your boots, what will?

        And in case you think I’m making up those Rasmussen numbers, enjoy: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

    • Matt Margolis November 3, 2012 / 3:48 pm

      Mitt is going to PA because private (and possible internal) polls showed a tight race despite no one spending any money there. Romney’s desire to spend money there instead of other swing states suggests a) confidence in OH, and perhaps IA as well and b) puts Obama on the defense in what should be safe territory, thus diverted resources he could spend in the so-called firewall he hoped would make a Romney victory impossible.

      • neocon01 November 3, 2012 / 4:09 pm

        maybe you could post this…..

      • Amazona November 4, 2012 / 10:42 am

        The Lefties want to claim Colorado but if they are so confident about Colorado why are Obama and Biden spending so much time here?

        And the real mystery to me is, why is Obama focusing on slam-dunk venues? Isn’t the goal to bring more people over to his side, not to just preach to his choir?

        I mentioned this yesterday to an employee, who said that Rush had said the same thing—–why go to Boulder, of all places, when you know you have the Boulder vote in the bag anyway?

        Just think how many of the other 58 states he could hit, if he didn’t waste so much time in bright-blue Boulder.

    • 02casper November 3, 2012 / 5:12 pm

      538 isn’t as much of an opinion blog as it is a math blog. Nate’s predictions have been pretty accurate over the years although he has missed on a few. He currently has both Florida and North Carolina going to Romney. I predict that at least one, if not both go to Obama due to his campaign’s strong ground game.

      • Matt Margolis November 3, 2012 / 5:29 pm

        Nate Silver got it right in 2008, but other pollsters have a longer record of accuracy.

      • 02casper November 3, 2012 / 7:09 pm

        Nate isn’t a pollster, he’s a math geek that uses all the polls to make his prediction.

      • Matt Margolis November 3, 2012 / 8:37 pm

        exactly. and he’s using polls that have faulty party IDs, and outliers… so his methods aren’t really flying this time.

      • 02casper November 3, 2012 / 8:58 pm

        “exactly. and he’s using polls that have faulty party IDs, and outliers… so his methods aren’t really flying this time.”

        He’s using all of the polls and he adjusts for outliers, the same way he has for years. What is he doing differently this time?

      • Cluster November 3, 2012 / 9:03 pm

        Factoring in polls that over sample democrats and using 08 turnout models, which won’t be the case. This election will be more like 2010, rather than 2008.

      • 02casper November 3, 2012 / 9:47 pm

        Cluster
        November 3, 2012 at 9:03 pm #
        “Factoring in polls that over sample democrats and using 08 turnout models, which won’t be the case. This election will be more like 2010, rather than 2008.”

        And you know this how? He’s using the same polls, the same way he did in 2010.

      • Cluster November 3, 2012 / 9:55 pm

        Because I read and do my homework.

      • M. Noonan November 3, 2012 / 11:13 pm

        Missed on a few? He entirely missed the 2010 GOP wave. He said on election eve that the GOP had only a 25% chance of reaching a 60 seat net gain…they gained 64. Right now, what is it?, he’s giving Romney a 21% chance of winning? Given his track record, that gives me all sorts of confidence.

  2. Cluster November 3, 2012 / 2:16 pm

    By the way, things are going well in the Hurricane Sandy zone /sarc

    More evidence that a big government just doesn’t work. Meanwhile Obama campaigns.

    I am sure the residents of PA are going to really excited to vote for Obama.

    • neocon01 November 3, 2012 / 2:40 pm

      Many Germans loved hitler……..just proves every country has idiots who will follow some POS with a Christ complex like the doper commie muslim.

      • neocon01 November 3, 2012 / 3:57 pm

        blood is in the water, Hoping for the arrival of the GREAT WHITE sharks.

        SOS calls for Investigation To Uncover Potential High Crimes And Misdemeanors In Benghazigate
        Special Operations Speaks ^ | 11/3/2012 | SOS

        Today, Special Operations Speaks PAC released the following statement along with a petition demanding an independent investigation into Barack Obama’s administration and its actions that may constitute High Crimes and Misdemeanors by the President, regardless of the outcome of the November 6th Presidential Election.

        “It remains uncertain if the tragedy in Benghazi was caused or compounded by Obama’s reckless inaction, gross negligence, or incompetent leadership,” said Joe Stringham, BG, USA (Ret), Special Forces/Ranger and Chairman of Special Operations Speaks PAC. “What is clear is that the deaths of Ambassador Stevens, Sean Smith, and former Navy SEALs Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty are on Obama’s bloody hands,” said Chairman Stringham.

        (Excerpt) Read more at specialoperationsspeaks.com …

      • neocon01 November 3, 2012 / 4:33 pm

        does this mean hussein hates white people?

        Obama at FEMA: “We still have a long way to go” (Hussein’s “120 percent effort”)

      • neocon01 November 3, 2012 / 4:35 pm

        Bwaaaaaaa ha ha ha ha

        Fewer than 200 people showed up to watch Wonder perform a handful of his hits at the early voting event in support of pResident Barack Obama.

  3. Amazona November 3, 2012 / 8:48 pm

    I don’t think simple math is enough.

    Example: And this is just me, driving way too much and having time to think.

    OK, we have an election between two people who have never held the office before. There is no incumbent, there is no track record of performance. Some will vote one way because of party affiliation, some will vote the other for the same reason. Some will vote one way because of ideology, some have no clue as to the ideology of the party they are supporting but they like the person, or have some other emotional twinge that nudges them to vote the way they do.

    But there are the Undecideds, the people who get right up to the election and still don’t know how they are going to vote.

    So let’s say there are a million Undecideds, and 60% of them vote for Candidate A, giving him the election.

    Fast forward four years. Now Candidate A is the Incumbent, up against a Challenger.

    But we still have a million Undecideds. Hmmm.

    That tells me that the Incumbent, who got 600,000 Undecided votes four years ago, hasn’t closed the deal, because the same people who voted for him last year are not convinced that he did such a great job they have moved out of the Undecided category.

    I would think that would make the Incumbent pretty nervous.

    Now these people who finally came down on his side last time are still dithering, which means they are not so impressed with his performance that they are willing to commit to voting for him again.

    Now these Undecideds, who last time around made their final decision on how they hoped their choice would perform, are looking at this election and thinking: “This time around I know what to expect—more of what I got for the last four years. Do I really want more of the same, or do I want to roll the dice and hope I get it right this time?”

    Because there are two basic reasons to vote for an Incumbent:

    1. You think he did such a good job you want him back for another term
    2. You aren’t that impressed with him but he has scared you into thinking the other guy is even worse.

    If the Undecideds who voted for you last time are still Undecided, it seems to me you have a very big problem, and this means your only hope is to hang your hat on Option # 2.

    A purely mathematical model will probably look at the numbers, how many Undecideds voted which way the last time, and project a similar outcome this time. But it seems to me that the predictor should also look at why the same people who were Undecided before they voted for the Incumbent are still Undecided after watching him in office for four years.

    • 02casper November 3, 2012 / 9:17 pm

      “I don’t think simple math is enough.”

      The math isn’t that simple.

      “Because there are two basic reasons to vote for an Incumbent:

      1. You think he did such a good job you want him back for another term
      2. You aren’t that impressed with him but he has scared you into thinking the other guy is even worse.”

      There is a third reason to vote for an incumbent. The challenger is worse than the incumbent.

      • Cluster November 3, 2012 / 9:27 pm

        There is no one worse than Obama. Obama isn’t qualified to be dog catcher. He is the most incompetent, divisive, egotistical POS this country has ever known.

      • Amazona November 3, 2012 / 9:42 pm

        You see, Cluster, casper clings to his man-crush fantasy that Barry is a good president, and that the better educated, far more experienced, FAR more successful, Romney is “worse”.

        casper’s silly list of Obama’s supposed accomplishments shows his giddy fan-club fluttery adoration of Obama, as everything he finds so wonderful is simply not true.

        But he doesn’t care. He is totally politically illiterate and completely emotion-driven, and by his vile and crude comment on Benghazi is also proven to be quite despicable as a human being.

      • Cluster November 3, 2012 / 9:47 pm

        I think Casper smokes a lot of pot, just like Barry did, or probably still does with Jay Z. I think Casper thinks Obama is “cool” and that’s about as intellectually deep as he goes.

      • tiredoflibbs November 3, 2012 / 10:09 pm

        cappy: “There is a third reason to vote for an incumbent. The challenger is worse than the incumbent.”

        The “reason” you cite is due to reason #2. obAMATEUR has no record on which to run. And the only alternative is to scare voters into not voting for Romney.

        Just like obAMATEUR said during his acceptance speech in 2008: “And that’s to be expected, because if you don’t have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare voters. If you have no record to run on, then paint the other guy as someone to run from. You make a big election about small things.”

        Obviously, obAMATEUR pathetic campaign tactics are working on weak minded individuals such as yourself.

  4. GMB November 3, 2012 / 9:03 pm

    I am GMB and I heartily approve this message.

  5. Cluster November 3, 2012 / 9:31 pm

    “Voting is the best revenge” – Obama

    What a loser

  6. Cluster November 3, 2012 / 9:33 pm

    Still no power, FEMA runs out of water, and gas is scarce almost a week after Sandy. Doing a heckuva job Barry.

    • 02casper November 4, 2012 / 1:09 am

      Wow, 6 days after a major disaster and everything isn’t fixed. Oh, the horror.

    • Cluster November 4, 2012 / 9:17 am

      Nothing’s fixed Casper. It took FEMA 5 days to get sign up sheets to Staten Island, they ran out of water, had very few generators, were Ill prepared on nearly every front and yet had a week to prepare for this storm. I know you are government paid school teacher, but people in the real world get things done a lot quicker and more efficiently.

      • Amazona November 4, 2012 / 10:49 am

        With Katrina, FEMA was in place days before the storm hit, with plenty of food, water, etc. Their only hangup was Nagin, who wouldn’t let them near the Super Dome and parked them in an outlying warehouse district, so when the flood waters rose they were cut off from the people they had gone down there to help.

        They were way ahead of the game.

        Sign up sheets, water, generators, etc. should have been in place on Staten Island days before the storm hit. What part of “ISLAND” did FEMA not understand?

        As for casper, he is a weenie who sits back and watches other people do things and then snipes in his catty little whine when he thinks he sees a chance to smear a conservative. You will notice, if you haven’t already, that he doesn’t actually come out in FAVOR of anything, except for his fan-club crushes on some personalities, but he does snarl and spit a lot.

        Catty men are SOOOO manly………

  7. M. Noonan November 3, 2012 / 11:14 pm

    Have to disagree with the map – I’m confident that Romney will win IA, WI and NH and has a 51/49 chance of winning NV and PA.

  8. M. Noonan November 3, 2012 / 11:22 pm

    A bit of a a shocker here – Romney up by 1 in….Minnesota. Yes, Minnesota – the State which disgraced itself in 1984 by not voting to re-elect Ronald Reagan. I guess they want to make up for that error…

    DO NOT GET COCKY! BE SURE TO VOTE!!! But, boys and girls, if Minnesota turns red then we’re in the midst of a 1980 style landslide…it would wind up 355 Romney, 183 Obama…and that only because “favorite son” status would keep Illinois blue for him…

    • GMB November 3, 2012 / 11:34 pm

      There are a lot of people here in Illinois that say they are going to vote for barky in public. Once inside the booth? We will see.

      Don’t ever concede anything.

    • 02casper November 4, 2012 / 1:03 am

      Mark,
      If you believe that Romney is ahead in MI, you are lost.

      • Amazona November 4, 2012 / 10:35 am

        casper, what part or parts of the polling memo do you find incorrect?

      • neocon01 November 4, 2012 / 1:37 pm

        chirp chirp tweet tweet

      • M. Noonan November 4, 2012 / 10:30 pm

        Casper,

        Actually, I don’t think Romney will win Michigan…and I only give him a slight chance to win my home State of Nevada. But the fact of the matter is this: at this stage in 2008, Obama was campaigning in Indiana.

    • M. Noonan November 4, 2012 / 10:31 pm

      Where does anyone get the idea that I’m thinking Romney will win Michigan?

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