Foreign Affairs

Portugal’s Bonds Cut to Junk

Mark Noonan

From Reuters:

Moody’s became the first ratings agency to cut Portugal’s credit standing to junk, warning the country may need a second round of rescue funds before it can return to capital markets.

The downgrade on Tuesday was not entirely unexpected and served as a reminder that Europe’s debt troubles extend beyond Greece, which has dominated news headlines over its second financial bailout.

Some economists think Ireland may also need additional support, and investors worry Spain and Italy could be next in line for aid…

Which, as it turns out, is just what I’ve been saying.  But I’m no genius – all anyone has to do is total up the debt these countries owe, divide it by their (declining) population and you can easily see that they owe more than they can pay.  And I don’t mean “can pay this year” or “can pay in ten years” – I mean “can pay, ever”.  Even if these nations decided to dedicate themselves to debt payments – if they decided to live in poverty and work very hard, that is – they still couldn’t do it. Continue reading →

Death of Europe Watch

Mark Noonan6 Comments

From the Telegraph – British government won’t celebrate the bicentennial of the Battle of Waterloo:

The Government has decided not to celebrate the anniversary, on June 18th, 2015, for fear of upsetting the French. The Department of Culture has ruled out any official celebration, or a service of thanksgiving in Westminster Abbey.

It’s a pretty lily-livered decision. Would the French really care that much? Do we mind that the Americans celebrate Independence Day today – a commemoration, in part, of our ultimate defeat by American revolutionaries?…

The real notice of the Death of Europe is that Britain has a Department of Culture.  When you’ve got that, it means you have no culture left.  Culture isn’t made by government decree, it is made by people living.  Part of “living” for Europe means a vitally important battle was fought in 1815 which ended forever Napoleon’s dreams of continental domination.  It happened; it was important; it is an integral part of British and European culture…but the Department of Culture essentially says it didn’t happen.  So, no official marking of the date.

As the linked article notes, would the French really care?  Descendants of Confederates and Yankees gather to mark the anniversary of Civil War battles – it is no longer about the hatreds of war, but about honoring brave men, on both sides, who fought well for what they thought was right.  It is part of history – part of what makes us a people.  So, too, Waterloo…it is part of France, it is part of Britain; it is part of Europe.  To not mark the date is to say that the men who fought did so in vain – and, I guess they did.  Europe is dying – I don’t see how they can recover.  They haven’t even the will to learn of themselves.

S&P: Greek Bailout is a Default

Mark Noonan3 Comments

Nice of them to mention this after the S&P 500 went on a tear based on the assumption that the Greek bail out avoided a default – at any rate, the Financial Times is reporting that S&P is considering the bail out to be a “selective default”. In other words, it is just a bit of financial chicanery to keep people thinking that all is well as Greeks drops in to complete bankruptcy.

The one thing the Ruling Class doesn’t want is a gigantic financial melt down – not now, not with so many members of the Ruling Class up for re-election in 2012 (it isn’t just about Obama). Something needed to be done last week because if Greece went, it looked as though the whole, global financial system would go with it. That was and remains a correct assumption – if Greece goes, it all goes. But, also, if Spain goes, it all goes; if Portugal goes, it all goes; if Italy goes, it all goes. The problem is, as I’ve said, too much debt – governments owe far more than they can ever repay…and that is even if their people agree to be poor and work very hard for a generation to repay. It still wouldn’t work.

So, a melt down is inevitable – and anyone out there thinking that China can rescue the Euro or that China is an engine of real growth, think again: they, too, teeter on the brink of insolvency and only European and American bonds stand between them and the abyss. Its all good, if those bonds retain their value – if the Eurozone doesn’t have a default and if the United States doesn’t get a bout of inflation making our paper worth less. Not only is the melt down coming, but it is the most healthy, long term thing which can happen. We have to clear out the morass of bad debt, find out what things are really worth and then start to rebuild. The longer we keep up this extend and pretend fiction, the worse it will get.

Save money, get out of debt – and then just watch the show.