Campaign 2024

And Off We Go!

Mark Noonan16 Comments

Now the final push begins. According to some polling, Harris is doing ok. According to other polling, Trump is doing ok. But in almost all polling Trump is doing better than he ever did in 2016 or 2020. Most thinking people put the race as a tossup and that’s probably the best way to go. Always play like you’re a few points behind, right?

But as I said early on, I do believe that Trump’s program isn’t just to get a narrow Electoral College victory like he did in 2016 and nearly got in 2020 in spite of massive cheating…I think he wants a big victory. Maybe even an absolute popular vote majority. In service to that, Team Trump has invested a lot in reaching out to less likely voters – that is, voters who don’t always vote. Pretty much universally among such people Trump is up huge…like 15+ points from what I’ve seen. If Trump can get these people to show – and they do have incentive this year to do so – then all polling is drivel…because especially lately polling has tried to screen for Likely Voters…which naturally excludes people who don’t vote on the regular.

Low turnout election: favors Harris.

High turnout election: favors Trump.

I did find out from some actual polling experts that newly registered voters are counted in Likely Voter screens – the assumption, which I think correct, is that if you just registered to vote then you’re motivated and will show. But I also wonder about the response rate for such voters? Especially Trump voters? You see, someone who just registered to vote with an eye to pulling the Trump lever is probably someone highly suspicious…you know, unlikely to pick up the phone and answer a pollster. This along with irregular voters means there could be a large swath of voters simply not showing up in the public polls.

But what of the private polls? That we don’t know – and if internals are leaked, they are leaked to get us to think a certain way. Looking at ad spending there is no big surprise – both teams are pouring the money into the Battlegrounds and pretty much matching each other. But I note that Team Harris has been spending some time in New Hampshire and Virginia…States which the flip from Biden to Harris was supposed to put out of Trump’s reach. Why campaign in places you’ve locked down? Of course you don’t. Additionally, Harris is now calling in Pudding Brain – his use will be selective but that they have to use him indicates, in my mind, a huge problem for Harris among blue collar voters. We just went through a month of “Joe, who?” from Harris and the Democrats…now he’s back. Looking terrible and sounding more senile than ever…I mean, how desperate are you to think that the Scranton Joe drivel will work again? Especially as Scranton Joe can barely string a coherent sentence together?

I’m also noticing that the lies keeping Harris afloat are getting threadbare…there are just so many of them and they are so obviously lies. It looks like she may have even lied about working at McDonald’s. Remember, she’s the daughter of a rich Commie father and a privileged Indian mother. She tries to talk like she’s just some poor kid but her mother was an oncologist. Even in the 60’s and 70’s, such doctors were making big bucks. She was never poor. Never lacked resources. Wouldn’t have to take a part time job. I thought it credible at first that she might have – earn a few extra bucks, ya know? But now it looks like even that might not have happened. As for Walz, there’s pretty much no biographical detail he hasn’t lied about – and this is before Team Trump starts asking how a teacher managed to afford 30 trips to Communist China. I do suspect that people are starting to see through it all – that Harris is nothing but lies.

I do think Harris will show for the debate. Some people think she’ll find an excuse to back out. But I figure she’s gotta show: no matter how much MSM spin there’d be on it, it would look just terrible if she backed out. How will it go? I’m sure she’ll have her mindless platitudes memorized and, of course, the MSMers will pitch softballs at her…as well as do other things to protect her from Trump. But at the end of the day she’s not a good speaker, she can’t think on her feet and her voice and personality are grating. They’re not hiding her for no reason: if she was even reasonably competent in front of an audience they’d have her out there unscripted on the regular. She’s just terrible at it. She had to bow out before a vote was cast in 2020 for a reason. Of course no matter how it goes the MSM will call it the best debate performance ever seen…but the people will be watching and if Trump is in any way a credible alternative, he’s going to walk away with the debate.

I’m still serene. Confident of victory. Maybe I’m foolish about it but I just don’t have any jitters about it. Perhaps I’m just getting old now and so feel I have less at stake? I don’t know – but I feel great about it all. I’m enjoying this election more than any I’ve ever experienced.

MAGA

Mark Noonan28 Comments

With the RFK, Jr endorsement of Trump we can truly say that this is no longer a GOP vs Democrat election. It really is The People vs The Powerful. We’re not fighting to elect Trump so much as fighting to destroy a corrupt, stupid and cruel Ruling Class. This Class does include many GOPers as well as a host of pundits and such who have made their way by being the controlled opposition to the Democrats. This is best shown by some alleged pro-lifers saying they’ll vote Harris or sit the election out because Trump hasn’t been Simon-pure on abortion.

Nobody on Earth is more of a pro-life fanatic than me. I want the barbaric, inhuman practice banned. There is never any legitimate reason to terminate a pregnancy. Pregnancy is not a disease. No pregnancy is unplanned. No child is unwanted. There are some times tragic and even wicked circumstances that produce the unborn child, but the unborn child is still a miracle of life…and a human being vested immediately upon conception with all the rights that every other human being enjoys. But politics is the art of the possible. Except in a few very Red States and localities, a ban on abortion simply isn’t possible. We’re more than 50 years into the Ruling Class propagandizing for abortion and those lies have sunk deep roots into the American heart and mind. So deep that even decent, moral people can be confused on the issue and so be unwilling to ban. We’ll be a long time undoing it – and the effort is now, politically, State and local while the real work is to build a Culture of Life that will make the very concept of abortion unthinkable.

But here are supposed pro-lifers essentially knifing us in the back – as if electing a pro-abortion fanatic like Harris will help. Of course it won’t. But they don’t care. They are not actually pro-life…they are pro- making money off the life issue. And you make the most money by losing. That is, by having abortion legal everywhere and issuing futile complaints about it with a link at the bottom for a donation. This is the sort of people who infest our Ruling Class – Democrat and Republican. Truly vile people who play upon emotions to secure power and wealth they couldn’t earn in a fair system. And now the people are starting to unite against it. Sure, under the banner of MAGA and with Trump in the lead, but it really isn’t about Trump any longer.

It is about MAGA.

It is about getting rid of these hideous people and starting to reform our nation – to restore the shining city on the hill. To secure for ourselves and our posterity the blessings of liberty. But here is the thing: you can’t recapture the past. The America of, say, 1912 when my grandfather was 16 is gone forever. We’ll never get back to that time when Americans were largely untaxed and unregulated – and the America where it was expected that everyone pulls their weight with no help from the government. In order to secure those blessing of liberty we are going to have to take reality into consideration. And while always working to reduce the tax and regulatory burden and build a self-reliant people, understand that in the short- and medium-term quite a lot of the Progressive mess will have to remain; our job being to turn it away from its Progressive intent.

In light of this and in keeping with building the broadest possible Reform coalition, we can’t just outright reject some things. I’ve talked in the past about the GOP leading the way in student debt reform – the Democrats just want to keep passing out the debt and then relieving it selectively for political purposes. We should be working to make it dischargable in bankruptcy, holding the schools accountable for at least some of the debt and forcing colleges to reduce costs (education costs have increased by orders of magnitude faster than inflation). In other words, we drop the “pay your bills, bum” and start to work on measures that resolve the problem while garnering support.

Welfare is a bane. We know this. But we can’t just end it like waving a magic wand. We need programs that require recipients to work – even if its make-work. And ensure that anyone who works 40 hours a week has sufficient to live a dignified life in their neighborhood: so, if the person is working but only making 80% of what’s needed, we kick in the other 20%. The goal is to show the poor that we’re here for them; that we want better for them – and to twist welfare away from a permanent dependency into a temporary launch pad. You can see where I’m going with this.

Coalition building is hard, but it is necessary. We can’t do the reforms we need with a bare EC win, or even a bare popular majority. We need to start working for 60% of the vote…for a MAGA trifecta that will last for 20 years. That is how long it will take to impose sufficient reforms to ensure that even when MAGA finally loses an election, the other side will be required to keep our programs in place…much as the GOP had to when they finally beat the Democrats after 20 years of the New Deal.

I do believe we are on the cusp of an historic victory. The Harris campaign is a fraud. Not just the usual run of lies, but a complete set of lies from start to finish, all designed to make it seem like she’s winning when the reality is 180 degrees different. Reminder: if it elects Harris, that is a bonus – the goal is to prevent a Congressional and State Democrat meltdown. They know that if they hold that power then even 4 years of Trump won’t fundamentally change things. This is what they are doing – saving the Party; Harris is just a placeholder who allows Democrats to pretend their standard bearer isn’t responsible for the mess. But I do not believe this will work – I can see the outlines of a big Trump win coming. But it only comes via Trump’s strategy – and you have seen enough by now to know he’s not running ideologically Right…he’s running to garner a broad coalition. Our job is to join in the effort. Make it our own. And carry it forward even after Trump is gone.

Off We Go to the General Election

Mark Noonan57 Comments

Didn’t watch Her Cackleness speak – X comment is on partisan lines.

Democrats: “I’d commit seppuku for her!”

GOPers: “It sucked”

Doom Mongers: “She’s like Reagan and Trump is going to lose!”

Personally, I don’t think it matters what she said – her entire campaign is an attempt to lie her into office just as Joe’s was in 2020. They are pretending she isn’t in office and wasn’t for the last 4 years. Vote for her! She’ll fix everything! Don’t even ask! Just vote. Joy!

Can it work? If it does then, as I’ve said from the get-go, we never had a chance. If an electoral majority falls for this drivel then no matter who we nominated we were going to lose.

But, I don’t think we’re going to lose. In fact, I think we’re going to win pretty big. Even with the Kamala-hype BS polling, Trump sits at 287 Electoral Votes. That is more than 270, by the way. The rest is just gravy. They will put out some polls over the next few days showing her up big because that is all part of the Narrative but in the nitty-gritty, she’s just not catching on. People do see the scam and I think they are getting increasingly revolted by it. Covid made the Joe-BS seem at least partially credible…but now its just all bad and there’s nothing big to blame it on, except those in charge. Harris is one of those in charge. She can tell us all she wants that she’ll fix things and it’ll always come back to the question: why aren’t you fixing them now?

Be that as it may, now the real contest begins – and while Never Trump Doomsters are talking like its 2016, the bottom line is that Team Trump is highly disciplined and hitting Harris where it hurts while also getting into the mechanics of getting voters to the polls and making sure the count goes correctly. Trump is not hated by a majority. Trump does hit the points he needs to hit. If there is anything like a fair-minded majority in America, this is in the bag.

And, personally, I think it is – heck, every time someone goes to the grocery store, MAGA shines a little brighter. If you are feeling nervous then here’s the cure all: turn off the TV. Seriously: that is where all the Harris-hype comes from. It is just news-actors on TV saying what Team Harris told them to say and, guess what?, they’ve been told to say that Harris is beloved and rocking and just soaring to the heights. They’re like German radio in April of 1945 saying that Berlin remains German and Vienna will be German again. Baghdad Bob got nothing on these guys. It isn’t happening. She isn’t popular. Nobody likes her. Heck, her own supporters can’t even tell you why they support her…its just “she’s like a woman, you know, and black and she cares about me”. Her campaign is infantile and designed to impress the least knowledgeable people in the United States…you know, news-actors, welfare bums and college students.

Meanwhile, as you collect your paycheck among rumors of imminent layoffs you have to figure out what you won’t buy this week because food is so damned expensive. Guess who you’re voting for?

UPDATE: Did not have RFK, Jr endorsing Trump on my bingo card. OTOH, we all should have: the Democrats really screwed him. To be sure, RFK has some kooky ideas…but, so what? That’s the thing about our side: you’re allowed to have your views. Speak! Let’s hear it. Try to convince us. We’re not afraid. And let’s all admit that especially after COVID we all have our doubts about pharma…but its been longer than that, hasn’t it? The TV ads for drugs which list a score of side affects…what the heck is that about? Does the damned thing work, or not? And if I’m sick, I’m going to a doctor…you advertising seems to be an attempt to get me to buy medicine I maybe don’t need.

The main thing about this is that there is a clear and growing movement against the Ruling Class and against its titular head, Kamala Harris. Nothing works. Space ships stuck in space. Rag tag Islamic militia in Yemen thumbing its nose at our fleet. Bridges can’t be repaired for years. Kids can’t read. Crime. Inflation. Wars all around the world. A flood of illegals. We all feel it. We know its going badly. And we’re supposed to give the Ruling Class another four years? We’re supposed to believe that somehow Trump is the threat?

No. It won’t wash. We’re voting Trump.

UPDATE II: Our Matt explains that if we do want to save Democracy, Harris has to lose.

Get Ready for the Psy-Op

Mark Noonan30 Comments

No, as it turns out, I won’t watch a minute of the DNC. Reminder: I almost didn’t watch the Trump-Biden debate because I find Biden to be such a vile person that I have no desire to hear him speak as if he’s on an equal moral or intellectual level with me. It is 50/50 whether I’ll watch the Trump-Harris debates. I utterly despise these people. They are evil. Cruel. Corrupt. Stupid. Anti-human. Anti-American. I want them permanently removed from power and I want them punished under law for what they have done. So, yeah, I’ll be watching something else while they talk.

I will check out the X feed though.

But no matter what you do this next week, keep in mind that you are being targeted by a massive psy-op. It is designed to get you to quit; to think that Harris is genuinely popular and that Trump is a worn out has-been headed for defeat. They will have polls showing precisely this. I mean really big this time – national leads of 5 or more and there will be polls showing her down only 2 in Ohio and 1 in Florida. It will be the most absurd set of lies ever produced. A level of lies that Goebbles would have rejected as too implausible. Don’t fall for any of it.

The race is about whether or not people want a continuation of the last 4 years. That is what a Presidential election is always about. If things are going well, then the party in power is usually rewarded with another 4 years even if the incumbent President isn’t on the ballot. 2000 was a rare exception here – and that was a photo-finish that very easily could have gone the other way. There are no objective factors which indicate that people want 4 more years of Democrats or that they think Kamala Harris is someone of wisdom and courage able to lead the United States. Objective factors, by the way, does not include polls. Polls are weak reeds under the best of circumstances and they will be warped heavily over the next ten days or so.

It is after that you’re looking to. Especially after Labor day. Trump will start the knock down actually during the DNC – he was going to lay low but now there are several events…and they will get coverage just when the Democrats want all eyes on their psy-op. A message of courage and hope will come straight from Trump just while the op is telling everyone to give up, Trump can’t win. But it is still after Labor day that the real battle starts – and what I believe will end up being a step-by-step dismantling of the entire Harris propaganda effort. Trump did it in 2016 and he’ll do it again in 2024…except this time with far more muscle.

Feeling Good About #MAGA

Mark Noonan77 Comments

Dow go down – but now the Futures are up. Its a bit volatile out there…and I do think the big banks managed to manipulate us out of a major slide today. A thousand points isn’t anything to sneeze at but there were multiple reports of trading house websites crashing…and so preventing a lot of people from dumping their stocks, especially early on. The bottom line is that we’re in the midst of a debt-fueled bubble. Will it pop? Not if the central banks around the world have anything to say (and they have a lot to say). For the USA it is a matter of just keeping it afloat until November 5th – after that, even if inflation spikes again, they don’t care. Either Harris will have won or Trump would have – if its Harris they’ll blame anything but her. If its Trump they’ll blame him for it all. If Harris they’ll count on the worst of it being over far enough in front of 2028…if Trump, they’ll exacerbate it and hope it stays bad all through 2028.

But it still might pop – and in a 2008 manner. If that happens in the next 60 days, Trump will win in a landslide. That is what will keep the Fed and others massaging the system furiously. Do keep in mind that the very thought of Trump being sworn in terrifies our entire Ruling Class. They will stop at nothing to prevent such a thing from happen. I do hope that Trump’s security team has heads on a swivel. But outside a repeat of Butler, everything else is also on the table – and if you think the MSM has been brazenly lying to this point, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

They are going to try to lie Harris into office. In 2020 they at least had Covid and related problems…here in 2024, it is all bad for the incumbent party. They’ve got nothing to work with except to lie, lie and then lie some more. Harris won’t just be coddled – she’ll be given an endless tongue bath. The whole point of it, though, isn’t to increase her support – they really can’t. She seems to have a hard ceiling and Trump continues to gain in personal popularity. What they are trying to do is convince Republican-leaners to stay home. To figure Trump has no chance and so don’t bother. Harris needs a low turnout election. Very low. Like an election of complete indifference. If you take a look at the polls showing her “surging” they are predicated upon a D+5 or more environment…and not just heavily D, but low turnout so that the D voters make up 42 or 43 percent of the electorate. In other words, an electorate where a huge swath of Presidential-year independent (but GOP leaning) voters stay home. Can they make this happen? We’re going to find out – if they do, they win. And win forever.

Trump’s task is to take the anger at current conditions and channel it into a message of change – if you look at his tag line it isn’t just “make America great again”…it is also make America safe, powerful, wealthy, etc again. This is a line of talk designed to get those GOP leaning independents to the polls. This is why, at times, you’ll see some odd moves in Trump’s messaging…he’s not speaking all the time to you and me, the core GOP electorate. He knows we’re going to be there and for him…but he needs 5 million people who only vote when angry. Angry with crime, prices, immigration…that sort of thing…and willing to come out and give Trump a shot at fixing it.

I remain serene – certain that Trump will win. The party that had to swap out its candidate with a sleazy backstab isn’t on the path to victory. If Harris was in any way good, the DNC would have dumped Pudding Brain late last year and rigged the primaries for her, not Biden. She’s no good. She isn’t “brat”…she’s nearly 60. Like me. She’s old and she represents a dying past…and a dying Ruling Class. Trump may be older in years, but he represents a bright, youthful future for America…a land of hope and dreams…not fussing over pronouns and worried about if a person meets certain gender and demographic requirements.

This is our times, my friends. Finally and at last, America can break free of the Left. Not all at once – what was a century in the making will take time to undo. But we can shatter the chains. We can reclaim freedom – and sanity. I do believe that Trump has tapped into that sensation that nothing is working but that it can be fixed, if the cretins represented by Harris are turned out of office.

They can’t stop us. Oh, they’re going to try – but we are the stronger side. The decent side. The intelligent side. The hard working side. Their collection of grifters, charlatans and blue haired weirdos doesn’t stand a chance against us. We’re going to fight and we’re going to win.

UPDATE: Word is she picked Walz. So, the candidate who bailed out BLM has picked the guy who let BLM burn Minneapolis. This is the first Judenfrei major party ticket. FFS the Democrats are going to get wiped out.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan86 Comments

Trump has agreed to debate Harris on September 4th – Fox News venue but this time with an audience. Other rules apparently like those during the Pudding Brain debate.

Officially Harris is favored to do well at the debate – and she certainly can’t do worse than Biden. But she’s not a very bright person, she does not do her homework and seems to have a lackadaisical attitude about staying on message. I think Trump may be able to flummox her – and an upset Harris with her whiny, nasal voice won’t come across very well.

Outside optics, all policy advantages are on Trump’s side. Harris is busily distancing herself from…well, just about everything she’s ever said before. She has, as I’ve mentioned before, 100% signed on to each bit of Leftist idiocy as it has come up. No holding back! But now she has to convince people who aren’t Leftist idiots to vote for her…and this will be the very first time she’s ever tried that. Remember: she did Deep Blue California politics and then flopped on entering the national stage…only to be plucked from failure by Joe Biden. What I’m saying is that she’s barely ever been challenged – and certainly never challenged by someone like Donald Trump. It’ll be a new experience for her and I doubt she’ll be ready for it. She might think herself a tough cookie, but she’s never had to be tough before.

There is now a plethora of polling showing Harris doing well – that is, vastly better than Joe was doing. The plus and minus of it all still indicates a Trump win…though without the assurance of a popular vote win that Trump was going to get had Joe stayed in. Harris will be incandescently popular in California and that will drive up her total votes. But that doesn’t matter – what matters is 270 and right now, the worst look for Trump is 268 Electoral Votes…with him having to flip just one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania and Harris having to draw an inside straight to just eke out 270. Some of this polling result is because even though Gallup detects and R+6 environment and most number crunchers expect it to be R+2, the polls are coming in D+5 to D+9. But lets just leave that aside: polls are polls and we learned in 2016 that you can’t live and die by them. The best analysts have dug deep into the numbers and found that what is making Harris look as good as she does is Democrats just being relieved that Joe was given the boot – they were looking at a sure loss and now have flipped to believing that Harris means a sure win. This euphoria will fade…but it will be kept going through the Convention as Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) are determined to give no opening for anyone to challenge her from the floor.

At the end of the day, people still have to buy groceries and gas. The economy still continues to shed jobs for American citizens. Housing prices are still unsustainable. Autos are too expensive. Crime is on the rise (in spite of bogus numbers from the FBI saying it is going down). The border is still a mess. Hearing of an illegal committing a rape or murder is still a common occurrence. In other words, the fundamentals of America which had Trump winning before the debate continue. Harris has to fight against this headwind and hope that she can convince people that she can fix what she and Joe broke. This is a nearly impossible task even with the MSM in the tank for her. The MSM was just as much in the tank for Joe Biden and we see how that worked out. You can’t get around what people live through – you can’t talk them into calling themselves liars.

They say it is Shapiro who will be the VP pick – I guess someone leaked a proposed Harris/Shapiro ad. OTOH, this “leak” might have been intentional…a means to get Harris to not do it. Anti-Semitism of the most vicious sort is common among Democrats these days…especially among their most activist people. You know: the people who riot and burn things when they don’t get their way. But even if they end up going with Shapiro, I’m not too worried. Yes, he will complicate Pennsylvania for us, but nobody votes for a VP…and he’ll be carrying around the barnacles of Harris’ idiotic policy statements over the past four years. Plus, now that I’ve got a look at him he seems a typical Democrat – an ignorant, arrogant, elitist ass. Vance will destroy him in debate.

I don’t think I’ve ever been more serene about the result of an election. In think I’ve reached a sort of Mistrust Nirvana – that is, I am so disconnected from consuming the MSM propaganda that I now assume the truth is 180 from what they’re saying. They’re telling me that Trump is doing terrible and Harris is this super genius. Sorry, no. I know that Trump isn’t doing terrible. He never led in polling in 2016 and 2020 (aside from temporary leads in one or two outliers). Trump has been consistently tied or ahead since March. He’s already mostly locked down Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. He’s got huge cash on hand. He forced a sitting President to quit. Maybe I’m stupid. Maybe I’m biased. But I just feel that Trump is on the path to win this thing – and by a substantial margin after its all said and done.

Man, am I Tired Open Thread

Mark Noonan12 Comments

We left Del Mar yesterday at 12:15 pm. We arrived home at 3:44 am. Why?

Well, because we have enviro-idiots demanding we go green, we are shipping truckloads of lithium batteries around the country and, in the nature of lithium batteries, one truckload of these exploded into flames on I-15 northbound…forcing the closure of the entire road for about 18 hours. This caused all traffic northbound on I-15 to be rerouted the roundabout way to Vegas – I-40 to Needles (just north of there, actually) and then US-95 into Vegas. Trouble is that I-40 is a much smaller road and it went down to just one lane each way due to construction. It took us 8 hours to go 77 miles! So, very tired this fine morning! And wondering if there is a PhD with the skills to calculate the carbon footprint of a truckload of burning lithium batteries combined with thousands of cars and trucks crawling along I-40 at less than 10 mph.

Also mildly curious about what we’re going to do if there’s a terrorist attack on our infrastructure – there are those two ways between LA and Vegas – I-15 and I-40. Shut both of them down via just a couple well placed bombs and just what happens to our economy? We’ve spent trillions on infrastructure and it is soft as butter. And I guess none of the geniuses in our National Security State ever thought that between major roads there should be first-rate lateral communication just in case something goes wrong. But I’m sure our DEI checklists are all filled out.

Anyways, wasn’t able to pay full attention to politics this last week because things like beach, food and beer commanded a great deal of attention. But I did see the cowardly, bet-wetting panic all over Right social media about Harris. As if she was this super-genius the Democrats had been hiding for decades, just to spring on us at the last moment.

No. She’s an idiot. She’s a commie. She’s taken every stupid position the Left has demanded since she entered public life. She’s a desperate stop-gap the Democrats were forced to turn to after Biden imploded and DEI requirements prevented anyone better from getting the slot. Meanwhile, our guy just forced out a sitting President after surviving an assassination attempt. Seriously, guys: grow a pair.

Now, can Harris win? Of course she can. The commie cancer is deeply embedded in the United States. At bare minimum 40% of the American people nod like morons when someone says “AmeriKKKa is a racist nation”. There’s no way around that in the short term. To get Harris to 270 they need to convince another 10% that another round of welfare spending is the way to go – and/or convince them that Trump is a hairy ogre out to get them. This can be done – especially with the MSM entirely in the tank for her. And as I’ve said all along this election cycle: if we lose, then we never had a chance anyway…the cancer will prove too strong to cure.

But I do not think we will lose. Harris is getting a glow based on MSM slobbering all over her. They are naturally producing polls with a Democrat-favorable results. But, here’s the thing: even the polls showing Harris ahead show her losing. Just like Biden, she has to be, at minimum, +3 in the RCP averages on Election Day to have a chance at getting to 270. A chance, guys; Biden “won” in 2020 based on 40k or so votes across 4 States in a D+5 environment. Harris’ path to victory starts out narrow – and Team Trump is already working to narrow it via a series of devastating ads which merely restate what Harris has said. How is it going? Harris’ people are already lying and saying that Harris will not ban fracking…this proves conclusively that at this moment her own polling shows her losing Pennsylvania. Team Trump is focused, disciplined and quite ruthless – they even had a memo out shortly after Pudding Brain dropped out telling us precisely what would happen…MSM orgasm, polls good for Harris…and then they’ll set to work correcting this.

In the end, we place our trust in God; we know how this comes out. And we have a little bit of faith in the man Trump, who has been through hell for us and is still standing. We don’t doom-monger. We don’t get overconfident but we remain confident.

Harris (Maybe)/Whoever the Heck, ’24

Mark Noonan52 Comments

I honestly did not expect this to happen – I figured the old bastard would stick forever.

But, man, does this look rushed – the announcement just popped up on X with no advance warning. No prep for a televised address (which is how you’d normally do such a thing)…and the initial post “forgot” to endorse Harris. This was taken care of a few minutes later when they realized they forgot that detail.

I can only figure that someone got to Biden’s people on Sunday morning and said words to the effect of “He’s out. He’s out right now. If he refuses then a whole bunch of really horrible things will be exposed.”

In the end, the mechanics of it, aside from Biden being senile, is that the money had run out – he’s still got about $200 million but he burned through $50 million in June and no more was coming in. That’s not enough for a Fall campaign which just gets more expensive day by day. Harris gets to use that money – and my bet is that she’ll get the nod. Pretty confident that Team Obama (which probably presented the hemlock to Biden) is already working the phones lining up first-ballot delegates for Harris. If nobody big jumps in, it’ll just be hers by default. But there is always that chance that the far Left will want to make some noise and so will find a stalking horse to deny her a first ballot majority – and then it all just gets more fun from there!

Who’s the Veep? Shapiro would be best and would actually cause some trouble for Trump in Pennsylvania but he’s only been governor for two years and he’s got his own ambitions…and those ambitions might not be helped by joining a losing effort. I doubt they’ll go with a woman – so, look for a term-limited Democrat governor or a Senator who isn’t going anywhere.

Right now, the race remains Lean-R; it was about to tip Likely-R but this does throw the race into a bit of chaos. And Harris will now benefit from some glowing MSM coverage – she might get a boost in the polls.

I don’t think Trump should debate her – why give the Democrats any air?

Trump’s PAC already has an ad out condemning Harris for her part in the cover-up of Biden’s condition and the failed border. This is good – and I’m sure Team Trump has already made lots of prep to face her. Democrats, lacking the least sense of shame, are already attacking Trump as the old guy…and this, my friends, is why Trump did that 90 minute acceptance speech. He could already see what might happened and he needed to prove after the attempt that he’s physically and mentally up to it, regardless of who he winds up against.

Main thing for the GOP is that until the DNC, the Democrats don’t even really have a candidate and they are still in disarray…a lot of people are going to be burned up about this and Biden people will be…unhelpful.

UPDATE: I read that wrong! So far, the Clinton’s have endorsed Harris but Obama didn’t – his post on it talks of having an open nominating process. That surprises me. My bet: they’ll come together on this but there is now a non-zero chance that the Obama and Clinton camps get into a pissing match over the nominee.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan21 Comments

This past week lasted a couple years, didn’t it? As I write it is still not quite a week since Trump was shot. Just amazing all that happened.

As for the shooter: we don’t know what happened because the authorities are hiding it. But what has emerged tells me that the shooter had knowledge of how to do this – that is, how to be a sniper. Did he learn it on his own? Was he trained by someone? I’m leaning towards “trained by someone”…that this was someone’s op. Do keep in mind that the Iranians have said they will take revenge on Trump for turning Soleimani into an Ikea kit. And there are plenty in the USA who would volunteer to help – people who have been told the endless lies about Trump and the USA.

If an Iranian op why don’t the Authorities just say so? Because in addition to exposing their own gross incompetence in the actual event, such a thing is an act of war – and it is American Left policy to foster the rise of Iranian power…and, no, they don’t really expect this to bring peace to the Middle East. They say they do but it is really reparations for the US role in removing Mosaddegh from power in 1953. No, I’m not kidding. They are that stupid. They feel all the problems of the Middle East stem from that action…and by reversing it via an overtly anti-American and powerful Iran, the stage and be reset. That and, of course, a lot of them receive Iranian money to betray the USA. If they found Iran responsible then we’d have to attack – that is, American Democrats who love the Mullahs and hate Trump would have to attack their beloved in defense of the man they hate. Ain’t happening! So, the cover up continues.

Pushing out Pudding Brain: I still say they won’t be able to do it but it is clear that the entire Democrat Establishment wants Joe out. Not because he’s going to lose the White House, but because he’s going to cost them big down ballot. They trouble is that they’re dealing with a Pride-filled man – who is also senile. And there is also no incentive for Biden to bow out. The minute he agrees to go, his power is gone…even if he were to try to engineer his chosen candidate to replace him, any promises made to him wouldn’t be worth anything…and Joe knows that: Democrat promises are only designed to get the victim to commit seppuku. Democrats never intend to keep a promise. As I’ve said from the start, only threats against the liberty of Hunter would do it…but, OTOH, the guy with a half century in Democrat politics also knows where a lot of bodies are buried. Jill and Hunter may have been told many interesting things that Democrats would prefer remain quiet.

As for me: I don’t care! Let them fight! I hope they keep going at each other all the way to the convention and beyond. And then still wind up stuck with Joe! Part of the reason Joe wants to stay is because he’s convinced he, and he alone, can beat Trump. He thinks what he did in 2020 was some sort of genius…not cheating in weird circumstances. Of course, the fly in the ointment is that he can barely string a coherent sentence together. Even if he was a genius in 2020…he ain’t in 2024. He’s a senile, old man. So, fight it out Democrats – and then send Joe out to malfunction increasingly to election day.

Trump-Vance, 2024

Mark Noonan48 Comments

Gotta say, I was a little surprised – I figured it would be Youngkin. But that might have been my bias: I thought he was best for the slot. But the decision has been made; the deed is done. No sense arguing about it any longer. This is our team: time to swing in behind it.

Vance does have an “American dream” story – he was born into abject poverty with a really bad family life. He rose above that. Very high above that. Even though standards have been dropped, getting into Yale Law still ain’t easy. So, the guy has some smarts. But he also seems to impress people…from working class to billionaires, people have come into his orbit and all seem willing to help him along to the next goal. To be sure, the billionaires do put a note of suspicion on him – but on the other hand, this guy from nowhere managed to get billionaires to back his dreams. It’s one thing when the scion of a rich family gets aid – that is just one rich stroking another. Putting money into a nobody is a risk – and you only do that if you think its worth it.

His wife is also “American Dream”: born in America of Indian immigrants (but much higher socio-economically than Vance), Usha Vance also has the Yale Law degree; they met in college. So, she’s also got some brains. Vance turns 40 next month so he is the youth and vigor for the team – and as he and his wife have three young children that will also strike a chord in a large segment of the electorate. Small side note and totally irrelevant: I’ve created a witch named Usha in Ghost Tower (Book X); she’s alluded to in Home World (Book IX). She is a horribly bad person but also kinda cool in that she can kill people via flames shooting out of her hands. I just hope that Mrs Vance doesn’t take offense!

Vance represents “Flyover America”. That is his thing – its what he’s for. His Hillbilly Elegy was all about it. Another side note: If Trump/Vance wins then for the first time we’ll have an Executive team made up of two New York Times Bestsellers (Trump for The Art of the Deal). I suspect that Vance was picked at least in part for his ability to connect with the alienated in the Rust Belt. Not GOPers – they’re already in Trump’s corner. I’m talking disaffected Democrats.

Within minutes of the pick the Left was out with a variety of hit pieces – I don’t think they’ve fully settled on whether he’s Worse Than Hitler or Hitler Lite, but that he’s some sort of Hitler is a given. Naturally they’re calling him racist (though with an Indian wife; weird, huh?), sexist, homophobic, fascist and all the rest. That “lowering the tone” speech Biden gave yesterday had about a 12 hour shelf life. But, we all expected that – hate and fear are all the Democrats have.

There were, naturally, the Nattering Nabobs of Negativism on the Right. People who wanted someone else. People who are just looking for a reason to attack Trump. Cowards who think we can’t win. I mostly ignored them. They are the people we used to lose with. Trump/Vance is the future; and that is where I’m looking. Can they lose? Of course they can. Anything is, always, possible. But I’m pretty confident it is Trump/Vance getting sworn in next January. Keep in mind: Trump was winning before the debate. He was winning comfortably after it. After Saturday, I think he’s well nigh unbeatable…certainly unbeatable by a frail, senile old creep. That will be as it will: as I’ve said all along, if we lose in 2024 then we never had a chance to begin with. Might as well joyfully enter the battle.

And I am joyful. Probably more happy than I’ve been about the future of our nation for a long, long while. I think we might have the people to actually get the reform ball rolling. I mean real reform; where things actually change. Not just window dressing on failure. There is much work to do – and much risk. The attempt on Saturday is revealing so much incompetence in the USSS that it is easy to get the feeling that they were intentionally inept. The Democrats have not stopped the incendiary rhetoric – and that will just increase as time goes on. Make no mistake about it: they do want a successful Saturday to happen. They hope that by continually stoking the fires that someone will make their dream come true. But the miracle of Saturday also gives me confidence that, as it always eventually does, right will triumph.