Social issues are driving it:
The latest Associated TV/Zogby International poll reports a significant change in Catholic support for the leading presumptive presidential nominees of both major U.S. political parties. Zogby analyst Fritz Wenzel explains that the shift amongst Catholics is due to increased concern about “social values.”
In mid-July, Catholics polled by Zogby International favored Democratic Sen. Barack Obama by 11 percent. The latest poll now shows they favor Republican Sen. John McCain by a margin of 50 to 34 percent.
Zogby International said in a Tuesday press release that McCain leads Obama among all voters by 42 to 41 percent, as measured by a telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters. The poll, commissioned by Associated TV and conducted from July 31 to August 1, claims a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
On the other hand, an Associated Press/Ipsos poll conducted between July 31 and August 4 finds Catholic support evenly divided between both candidates.
Fritz Wenzel, a Zogby Polling Analyst, gave CNA a statistical breakdown of the 269 Catholic respondents’ answers.
About fifty percent of the Catholics favored McCain, while 34 percent favored Obama. Twelve percent were undecided, while two and one percent favored third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, respectively.
“Catholics vote largely on a set of conservative values and on social values. On social values McCain has a natural advantage because of his pro-life stance, compared to Obama’s pro-choice stance,” Wenzel told CNA.
“This is a dominant issue in voting for Catholics because of the balance of the Supreme Court. The other issues are also important. When you start thinking about the conditions in the Iraq War, that was a concern for Catholics earlier. It’s becoming less so, so voters are turning to other, more domestic concerns.”
The push is rapidly coming to a shove and I think that, in the end, a very large majority of devout Catholics will give their votes to John McCain. There’s just too much riding on this election to think that Obama is the man for the times. While a lot of Catholics very much want large increases in social spending (heck, in a way even I do – though I don’t want to pour it into the failed, liberal programs; I have other ideas), with the Supreme Court in the balance and the Culture of Life poised for some real victories under continued Republican government, the thought of a few more billion for social spending drops in the scales of relative values. Lets first save life, then we can worry about what to do with the life once here.
There is also in Obama that very off-putting arrogance and self-centeredness. While we’re not better than anyone else, there is in Catholic attitude a demand of humility, and the higher you go the more humble we want you to be. As Obama rises, so does his ego, and Pride isn’t a deadly sin for nothing, you know?
All in all, this year is shaping up to have a lot of surpises in store, and the fact that the Catholic vote might go decisively for McCain – and perhaps hand him the White House – is just one of a dozen oddities…but it is good that my fellow Catholics are wise to the needs of the day.
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