Over the massive commercial real estate bust:
…Unlike the largest banks, such as Citigroup and Wachovia, that got into so much trouble early on, the community banks in general fared better in the residential mortgage crisis. But their turn is coming: Not only did community banks issue a higher proportion of commercial loans, but they also have held on to them rather than sell them to other investors.
Nearly 3,000 community banks — 40 percent of the banking system — have a high proportion of commercial real estate loans relative to their capital, said Warren, whose committee issued a report on commercial real estate last week. “Every dollar they lose in commercial real estate is a dollar they can’t use for small businesses,” she said. Individuals — who saw their home values drop in the residential mortgage crisis — would not feel that kind of loss, but, Warren said, a large-scale failure would “throw sand into the gears of economic recovery.”…
…Nationwide, at least $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt is expected to roll over during the next three years. Warren said that half of commercial real estate mortgages will be underwater by the beginning of 2011. A fifth of residential mortgages are underwater now, she said.
Unlike residential mortgages, which often can be paid over 30 years, commercial real estate mortgages typically must be paid off or refinanced within five years. Commercial properties mortgaged in 2005, 2006 and 2007, at the height of the boom, are reaching their maturity date. “Do the math on this,” Warren said. “This is a significant problem.”
Yeah, no kidding. Only a rapid and sustained turn around in the US economy can soften the blow. Keep that in mind – the crash cannot be avoided. It can merely be very bad, or it can be catastrophic.
In 2009, there were 140 bank failures – about 1 every 2.6 days. So far in 2010, we’re slightly slower at 1 failure every 2.7 days. Unless things start to go astoundingly well, we can expect over the next two years or so to lose at least 1,000 of the at-risk banks over a couple year period – about 1 per day, or more. Getting the picture?
Now, Obama and the Fed can try to bail out these banks – but that would take, probably, something close a trillion dollars, on top of all the money we’re already spending. Additionally, Bernanke at the Federal Reserve and Geithner have shown themselves mostly concerned with keeping the big banks afloat – and Obama simply might not see this coming. Additionally, if there was a bail out, it would just delay the inevitable.
A shake out is necessary as we are over loaded with office and strip mall space. Too much of it was built and some of it will have to come down, and a lot of banks simply will have to fail (even if Obama and Co put them on life support to make more “zombie” banks). But a recovery is possible if we put in place, very quickly, the policies needed to restore wealth creation in the United States. The bad news is that Obama and Co don’t understand the phrase “wealth creation”, let alone any of the policies which will encourage it.
Get ready for a long and bumpy economic ride.
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