From NRO’s Campaign Spot:
One of my readers, Charlie, takes a look at the early voting numbers from 2008 and compares them to the early voting numbers in 2010, or at least so far.
He finds, “in every state where there is partisan split data for both years, the Republicans have gained in early voting.” The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points in the 2008 numbers (Florida).
(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)…
That Florida number is a shocker – and shows that a GOP tidal wave is heading towards the Sunshine State. If you read the linked article, there is a whole list of States with excellent numbers for the GOP. This is just a continuation of what we saw through the primaries as GOP turnout was massive while Democrat turnout was anemic.
And this, in turn, is why Obama and the Democrats are spending the last 10 days in Democrat strong holds: they are trying to fire up the base to show up on election day, hoping that a huge November 2nd turnout will at least partially counter the massive GOP gains in the early vote. It may work, but I doubt it – I think that on election day the pattern will hold and the GOP turnout on that day will also be higher than expected, while Democrat turnout is low.
Nothing is over until its over, of course – the victory can’t be won, if it is to be won, until November 2nd. Lots of things can happen, but the events all year have shown an increasing rejection of all things liberal and Democrat in the United States. Don’t pay too much attention to polling data from now until November 2nd – partially because turn out models may be way off, partially because the Democrats will try to cook up at least some polls to give a false sense of momentum to their dispirited base.
Work for victory, don’t forget to vote, drag a friend to the polls with you…and then we’ll leave the rest of it in the hands of God and see what comes.
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