From Ed Morrisey over at Hot Air:

Remember when both the Republican and Democratic Parties tried to insist that Arlen Specter was the only path to victory in Pennsylvania? A new poll by Reuters and Ipsos puts a stake through the heart of that argument once and for all. Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the Senate race by ten points, but Arlen Specter would be losing it to Toomey by 12…

Morrisey notes that with the gubernatorial race also slipping away from the Democrats, the votes down ballot for House seats may also crater for the Democrats. Pennsylvania could end up quite red on November 2nd.

More and more, “wheels coming off the cart” describes the Democrats’ predicament.

And I mean at the polls? Well, Sean Bielat is going to give it a try:

Sean Bielat is the first strong challenger to Barney Frank since the 1980s. His experience and accomplishments have shaped his views:

—As a businessman, Sean believes in focusing on economic growth and fiscal responsibility

—As a Marine, he believes in peace through strength

—As an American, he believes in a return to Constitutional values and citizen-legislators

This is an incredibly uphill fight for Mr. Bielat, but if there is a year in which a Republican can beat Barney Frank, 2010 is it. Perhaps you’d like to help out?

Just never seen anything like this:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress…

There is no way to know if this level of support – and the incredible enthusiasm of GOP voters – will hold true until November, but generally what is happening around Labor Day holds true for the remainder of the election season. All signs point to significant GOP gains on November 2nd.

The only question, as noted below, is what the GOP will do with it?

Senator DeMint (R-SC) lays out the warning in the Wall Street Journal:

…I ask what so many voters are pondering: If Republicans win this fall, will they have learned the lessons from the overspending and corruption that got them tossed out in 2006 and 2008?

“In the House, John Boehner and the Republicans get it,” Mr. DeMint says. He’s not so sure about the Senate. “I think we’re in danger of doing the same thing we did before, where a lot of young conservatives come in who have been out there campaigning on the right issues, but then all the senior guys take control of the committees and it’s business as usual.”

He warns: “This may be our last chance with voters, because if we’re given the majority . . . and don’t reform Washington, everybody is going to say, ‘What’s wrong with these guys? We need a third party.’”…

The Senator may well be right about that. I’m a Republican and I’ve stood by the party through thick and thin – complaining when RINOs and/or corruption stained our honor, but holding that the party, itself, was still a force for good. I am still convinced of this – but if the GOP blows it in 2011, then it will be time to re-think just how we get from current state of government collapse to reformed government working for the people.

Like DeMint, I see that the House GOP seems to have learned its lesson – but in Senators like Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe I still see GOPers who will cut the party off at the knees for personal advancement. If we win in November, then it will be a mandate from the people to force Obama off his agenda – to make him change course to a more moderate, centrist policy. This doesn’t mean we have to insist upon 100%, down-the-line Reaganism (not possible while Obama is in the White House), but it does mean that taxes must not be raised, even if we can’t cut them; that spending must be reduced; corruption must be rooted out; that the government be responsive to the needs of the people, banksters and bureaucrats can go jump in a lake.

If the GOP does this, then we will have earned the trust of the people and we’ll be well positioned for a complete and smashing victory in 2012. If the GOP tries to cut deals to get pork or to continue to bail out failed banks or does anything which smacks of helping the Ruling Class rather than the people, then the GOP may very well be on the path to self-destruction as the people start looking for a new party and a new set of leaders.

The warning has been given – and I hope the GOP leadership is listening.

Yet another once-safe Democrat seat in peril:

New polling in the California senate race has moved that race to Toss-Up status from Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Rankings. In the latest polling conducted on Tuesday Night Carly Fiorina and Barbara Boxer are virtually tied…

Barbara “Ma’am” Boxer is an entrenched member of the Ruling Class – and is a perfect example of same. Arrogant, out of touch and hopelessly ultra-liberal in outlook, her contempt for common sense is matched only for her disdain for the views of the people. Beating her would be the ultimate signal – even more so than beating Harry Reid – that new times are coming to America.

Those are the numbers, respectively, of Democrat and GOP House seats at risk in 2010 – from Pajamas Media:

…The RCP survey suggests that 108 of the Democrats’ 256 seats are at risk, while only 15 of the Republicans’ 179 House seats are in play. If one removes seats that RCP believes are competitive but likely to be retained by the party currently in control, 86 Democratic-held seats and only seven Republican-held seats are in play. With a net shift of 39 required to give the Republicans control of the House, and the generic ballot polling showing the biggest leads for the GOP in the cycle (several in the 6-7% range, Rasmussen at 12%), it is not hard to see why many analysts are increasing their estimates of the size of the potential Republican gains…

Quite honestly, the Democrats could lose not just all those 108, but even more – it all depends on who turns out. Polling models are dependent upon past election results and the skill of the pollster in reading political tea leaves – in other words, a bit of facts and a bit of guess work. In order not to look like a fool, smart pollsters are very cautious in their guess work. If the polling models being used hold true in November, then we won’t see much difference between the final polls and the actual results – but if things become optimal for the GOP (ie, we get the best turnout we can, Democrats get the worst they can), then the final results could be astounding.

But, best not to work on that assumption. Lots of things can happen over the next 10 weeks – but things are clearly bright, and brightening, for the GOP.

The hardest task for the GOP is in the Senate. The linked article notes that Joe Lieberman might be induced to caucus with a 50 seat GOP, so even a net gain of 9 might do it…but even getting that sort of a net gain is going to require one heck of a good GOP year. We might get it, but nothing is sure.

From Ramussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arkansas shows Boozman capturing 65% of the vote, while Lincoln earns 27% support. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are not sure…

Lincoln won 56% of the vote in 2004, in a GOP year in a red State…she’s toast, and so are the rest of her sorry Democrats.

From NRO’s Campaign Spot:

In the most recent Gallup poll, the generic ballot shows Republicans ahead of Democrats, 50 percent to 43 percent.

The GOP’s seven-point margin is the largest they have enjoyed since . . . the dawn of creation, according to Gallup’s chart.

Strangely, the GOP had a five-point margin in July 1994, but the generic ballot remained tied in August and November.

That last bit is very important – in 1994 with the generic ballot tied up, the GOP still scored historic gains. This is because of the oddity of polling – it always understates GOP strength. There are a lot of theories for this, none of them completely convincing – I don’t bother with them any longer: I just always mentally add 2-3 points to the GOP for polls of likely voters, 3-5 points for polls of registered voters and 5-7 points for polls of adults – it works very well.

Right now, with a 7 point lead, if the election were held today, the Democrats would be utterly crushed. Will this polling sustain itself in to November? No way to tell – but unless things turn around very fast for the Democrats, they are looking at some pretty serious losses on November 2nd.

Pat Toomey lays out the case for the GOP in 2010:

Talk about carrying the fight to the enemy:

Hot Air points out that the district is rated D+23 – in other words, the conventional wisdom is absolutely no chance for a Republican to win the seat.

But I think there is – in fact, I don’t think any seat is out of range for the GOP. Some are a lot harder than others, of course, but a well done campaign can move the ball – and, just maybe, produce a GOP victory anywhere on the map.

To me, two things are important in politics – that each office holder have a primary challenger and that each seat be contested. No one gets comfortable – everyone has to continually re-state their views and win support.

Joel Demos has the second hardest political task in 2010 (the hardest is for the GOPer running against Nancy Pelosi, John Dennis – a pro-gun, anti-Fed, gold-standard, pro-gay rights, anti-war, libertarian Republican), and as he asks in the video – let’s help him out.

From Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans held steady from last week, while support for Democrats inched up two points.

That “inch up” of two points seems to have been detected by other pollsters and is being used for comment-fodder: the story is that Democrats have stopped the bleeding and can now recover a bit. I doubt it – anything is possible, but for there to be a shift back to the Democrats there would have to be some very good news about the nation as a whole, or some very bad news about the GOP. Neither of these things have happened, so I figure that the slight rise in Democrat numbers is just a statistical blip.

Time will tell in these matters, but the longer it takes for any good news to emerge for Democrats, the less likely it is they will recover even modestly by November. Meanwhile, more people now blame Obama for the economy than blame President Bush.

Amazing one one gets in the mail – especially if a friend of yours is registered as an Independent in Nevada.

Because they just can’t stand the thought of having one less pro-abortion vote in the Senate:

…pro-life views run counter to the way in which Boxer has defended everything from taxpayer funding of abortions to partial-birth abortions in the Senate, refusing to vote for or allow even the most modest abortion limits most Americans support.

Kathy Kneer, president of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, told the Associated Press today that her group believes Boxer will come out on top in November because polls show a majority of California residents back legalized abortions.

But the victory she assuredly believes Boxer will win won’t come without a hefty pricetag: one million dollars…

Boxer’s opponent points out that her mother in law was advised to obtain an abortion – which would have meant no husband for Carly Fiorina. That is an important point to make – behind each “choice” is a dead human being, a life cut short – love and devotion for others removed from the world. Abortion is an act of despair which lasts as long as this world will last – we can never repair the mutilation of our society represented by the tens of millions of abortions. Love was given to the world, and it was taken away – and it cannot be made good, ever.

Abortion is also an act of enslavement for women, in to the bargain. A woman who chooses abortion has not made a stand for independence but has instead turned her body in to the merest implement for the pleasure of the most unworthy of men – those men who would see their own child aborted rather than exerting themselves to care for both mother and child.

There is no good in abortion – it is a wicked, inhuman practice. But it does have its defenders, such as Barbara Boxer. And the people and groups who rake it in off despair and death – such as Planned Parenthood – don’t want their gravy train interfered with. And so, they’ll spend bags of money backing their kept Senators – and, dear Americans, it is really your tax dollars at work here. Planned Parenthood is subsidized in part by taxpayers – and that frees up funds for PP to use in politics. Keep that in mind as this election season goes on – any such PP action in politics is your hard earned money.

It won’t work – the Culture of Death is on its last legs. Barbara Boxer is doomed. She is doomed by the utter failure of liberalism in California. Doomed by the rank corruption of the Democrat Party. Doomed by the worthlessness of the Culture of Death.

From Ramussen:

The Wisconsin Senate race is still a toss-up, with Republican Ron Johnson and incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold in a near tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin shows Johnson with 48% support. Feingold, a member of the Senate since 1993, again picks up 46% of the vote…

This is pretty much unchanged from the last poll two weeks ago – but the really important thing here is that Feingold should be having a walk over in this race. This is his fourth run – he’s been a popular Senator in tune with the Wisconsin electorate. If Feingold is in trouble – and he is – then the entire Democrat party is on the brink of disaster.

From Rasmussen:

Republican candidates now hold a 10-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 25, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent…

Don’t get cocky, Republicans – we’re not called the stupid party for nothing, you know. If there is a political party which can blow this sort of advantage in a mere three months, we’re it.

But, all in all, for anyone who has observed politics over a long period of time, for the GOP to hold a ten point advantage in the generic ballot is astounding. Clearly, the Democrat brand has collapsed – all the GOP needs to do is come up with a winning message for the fall.

Anti-Democrat sentiment will carry us far – perhaps even to a narrow House majority; but to really put this away and set us up to beat Obama in 2012 (which will be the hardest task we, as a party, have faced in the past 100 years), we need to offer a compelling vision for the American people. Rote statements about tax cuts and spending restraint won’t do it – we need tap in to the revolutionary ferment of the American people.

We need bold proposals to radically cut spending – naming the programs we’ll cut, with the short, sweet rationale for such cuts immediately ready. We need to firmly come down in favor of strict border security. We need to offer hope for people crushed by the housing collapse. We need to pledge war to the knife with the purveyors of financial chicanery both in Wall Street and DC. We craft this message, and the sky is the limit for us.

He’s just got to win – we need men like him, now more than ever.

Go donate to his campaign, if you can spare the money, at all.

From Conservatives for Palin:

This week’s Economist/YouGov poll finds Governor Palin leading the 2012 presidential race:

Sarah Palin 28%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Mitch Daniels 4%
Tim Pawlenty 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Haley Barbour 1%
John Thune 1%
No preference 17%

Curiously, neither Jindal nor Christie is listed – and those two governors are the only people, I think, who can de-rail a Palin run for the GOP nomination (Christie much more than Jindal, at the moment, but if Jindal keeps up the passion he’s been showing of late, then he could become just as formidable on the trail as Christie).

Clearly, though, Palin’s use of donations and endorsements coupled with her so-far dead-on use of Facebook and Twitter to intervene in the national debate has paid off. It really now just comes down to, will she run? I simply don’t know – she’s doing what she needs to lay the ground work, but she’s also keeping just far enough away from the fire to keep all of her options on the table.

What she is doing is allowing herself the time time to come in only when she really wants to. Someone like Gingrich or Daniels will have to be pretty clear about it no later than, say, February of 2011 – they will have to start building up the national infrastructure to run. Palin’s already done that – she can now wait until even September of 2011, the deadline for filing in the New Hampshire primary. This allows her to sit back, choose her moment, build up tension and expectation and then do a huge, razzle-dazzle entry in to the race.

We’ll see how it comes out – but one thing to keep in mind: she’s probably one of the smartest people in American politics today. I know, the left (and even some of the “ruling class” right) have tagged her as a dummy…but that is because they, themselves, are idiots. Mark my words on this – she’s got depth upon depth of insight her opponents don’t even suspect her of.

Jindal in Louisiana, Haley in South Carolina – and now Vijay Kumar in Tennessee:

I am Vijay Kumar, and I am running for the 5th District Congressional seat presently held by Jim Cooper. I am an immigrant from India who has lived in Nashville for twenty-one years, and when I ran in the last election, I was blessed with winning almost a third of the vote.

I am running again because Congress has failed to take leader- ship on the issues of illegal immigration, taxation, English as our official language, our economy, healthcare reform, abortion, and the War on Terror, and I hope you share my belief that it is time for new leadership.

Did I miss a memo? Someone call a meeting of the V,RWC and not tell me? I thought we were working for Likud/Israel? I realize that I’ve been busy with the sub-plot where the descendants of Thomas Francis Patrick Noonan will take over the world, but I don’t think I’m that far out of the loop.

So, what gives? I mean, its cool – I, for one, welcome our Indian-American overlords if they’ll get rid of Obama and cut taxes.

From Rasmussen:

Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 18, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent…

Meanwhile, after weeks of being slandered by Reid, Angle clings to a slight lead and over in Connecticut the ain’t-got-a-chance Republican candidate seems to be gaining some support.

All in all, still a very good year to be a Republican.